what's new and what's special? the televised debates in the 2002 german election campaign...

What's new and what's special?

The televised debates in the 2002 German election campaign

Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann,U of Mainz, Germany

What was new in the 2002 German debates?

• Number of debates: Two debates

• Timing: 4 and 2 weeks before election day

• Length: 75 and 85 minutes

• Participants: Only two candidates

• Setting: Candidates standing, strict rules

Marcus Maurer & Carsten Reinemann, U of Mainz, Germany

Why are TV debates different from other forms of campaign communications?

• Audience size: Bigger audience than all other events

• Audience structure: Also undecided voters and opposing party

• "Free" format: Possibility to argue, not only sound-bites

• Confronting the opponent: Only format of direct interaction

• They generate large amounts of pre- and post-debate coverage(that also reaches those not watching the debate)


What are the effects of TV debates?

• During debate: Immediate reactions

• Post-debate: - Perceived "Winner" of the debate - Opinions about the candidates

- Knowledge (e.g. about the state of the country)

- Perceived winner of the coming election

- Importance of candidates for voting decisions - Voting intentions

• Post-debate media coverage: see the above



The effects process triggered by TV-debates

Short-term effects:Immediate reactions during the debate

(CRM)


7

Viewers’ evaluations of the candidates during the debateMean of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20:3

3:10

20:3

6:27

20:3

9:43

20:4

3:00

20:4

6:17

20:4

9:34

20:5

2:50

20:5

6:07

20:5

9:24

21:0

2:41

21:0

5:58

21:0

9:15

21:1

2:31

21:1

5:48

21:1

9:05

21:2

2:22

21:2

5:40

21:2

8:57

21:3

2:13

21:3

5:30

21:3

8:47

21:4

2:04

21:4

5:20

21:4

8:37

21:5

1:54

21:5

5:11

21:5

8:28

Schröderevaluated

better

Stoiberevaluated

better


8

What are the effects of …

- Specific statements about candidates’ views and political plans.

- Statements mentioning facts and figures (e.g. number of unemployed, economic situation)


9

Statements polarizing the political campsMean CRM-score of supporters of incumbent parties and opposition

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

20:3

3:10

20:3

5:37

20:3

8:05

20:4

0:33

20:4

3:00

20:4

5:28

20:4

7:55

20:5

0:23

20:5

2:50

20:5

5:18

20:5

7:45

21:0

0:13

21:0

2:41

21:0

5:08

21:0

7:36

21:1

0:04

21:1

2:31

21:1

4:59

21:1

7:27

21:1

9:54

21:2

2:22

21:2

4:50

21:2

7:18

21:2

9:46

21:3

2:13

21:3

4:41

21:3

7:09

21:3

9:36

21:4

2:04

21:4

4:31

21:4

6:59

21:4

9:26

21:5

1:54

21:5

4:22

21:5

6:49

Stoiberevaluated better

Schröderevaluated better

Supporters of the opposition (CDU/CSU and FDP)

Supporters of the incumbent parties (SPD and B90/Green Party)

1 2 3 45

6 7

89

10 11

12 13


10

What are the effects of …

- Statements arousing emotions

- Commonplaces


11

Example: Emotionalizing a non-emotional issueMean CRM of means of supporters of incumbent parties, opposition and undecided voters

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

21:2

4:21

21:2

4:32

21:2

4:43

21:2

4:55

21:2

5:06

21:2

5:17

21:2

5:28

21:2

5:40

21:2

5:51

21:2

6:02

21:2

6:13

21:2

6:25

21:2

6:36

21:2

6:47

21:2

6:58

21:2

7:10

21:2

7:21

21:2

7:32

21:2

7:43

21:2

7:55

21:2

8:06

21:2

8:17

21:2

8:28

21:2

8:40

21:2

8:51

21:2

9:02

21:2

9:13

21:2

9:25

21:2

9:36

21:2

9:47

Schröder speaking

"I received my degrees through evening classes"

"As my upbringing wasn’t privileged, I was lucky that I had the chance to make my secondary school exams."

Stoiber speaking

Schroederevaluated better

Stoiberevaluated better


Longer-term effects:Debate-induced opinion changes

pre-debate – post-debate(Panel-Analysis)


13

Changes of viewers' opinions about the candidates

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

More positive opinion (%)

More negative opinion (%)

Schröder Stoiber

Percentage of participants

20

3

17

19


14

Changes of the certainty of voting decisions

10

10


-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

more certainless certain

Percentage of participants

15

Changes of the assessment of the state of the labour market


Long-term effects:Opinion changes

immediately after the debate – five days after the debate



0

25

50

75

100

125

150 Statements

26/8

27/8

28/8

30/8

31/8 2/

93/

95/

96/

97/

99/

910

/911

/912

/913

/914

/916

/917

/918

/919

/920

/921

/9 29

/8 4/9

1. TV-debate 2. TV-debate

Lastparliamentary

debate

Number of statements

Post-debate coverage: Focusing on the candidatesNumber of evaluative statements about the candidates

four weeks prior to the election in four national newspapers (50% sample)

18

Changes of perceptions of who won the debate


19

Changes of opinions about the candidates



Suggestions for future debates:

• Independent organization

• Thinking about participants

• Discussing not more than 3-4 issues

• No media interventions in viewers’ opinion formation immediately after the debate

what's new and what's special? the televised debates in the 2002 german election campaign...

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