whatif? modelling tools providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address...
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues.
• Simulation modelling• Case study: Victoria WAS• Scenarios• Discussion
• Questions throughout please!
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?
Try something out ahead of time…
• To learn the impact of various actions
• To play out different scenarios
• To gain understanding and insight
…make better plans and decisions.
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach
• Whole system modelling
• Process as fundamental concept
• Physical substrate
• Behaviour/Control
• Stocks and Flows
• Coherence (user imputed causality)
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Model Builder
modelling suite
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Model Building Overview
design
model coding
calibration anddata assembly
scenariobuilding
• Interactive process for designing and building models
• Build a customized model specific to analytical needs
• Technology transfer may occur throughout
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
whatIf? Benefits
• Transparency
• Corporate Memory
• Scenario Management
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
We have linked physical whole-economy models
• Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) all economy energy end-use (residential, industrial…) materials flows
• Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF) demography land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas) electricity generation
• Water Accounting System (WAS) water requirements water provision energy for water system
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
• Demographics
• Land-use
• Electricity production
• Water resources and use a complete
water account
Drivers and Interactions
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’• ‘Flow’ of physical implications
integrates use and availability inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Geographic Context
• Victoria is in southern Australia• Melbourne is the capital city of ~4
million people• 3 key dams (each >106 Gl)
Dartmouth (NE) Eildon (N) Thomson (SE)
• supplies most of Melbourne
• Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap
Melbourne
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Victorian historical data sources• Water
DWRV Water Resource Handbook BRS 1985 Review ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005) DSE State Water Report 2003 SoE 1988 MDBC reports – flows, dam levels BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows Energy intensity of water services; Energy used
• Demography Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics
• Land-use Zoning Plan historical maps of Melbourne Census (2001)
• Energy ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004 ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991 specific energy consumption data 1974-1995 Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System - Description•“Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987]
“supply v demand” structure traceable physical relationships (coordination)
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System - Requirements
• water requirements by ~14 sectors in 79 Local Government Areas
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System - Availability• water availability
in 29 major river basins across 14 land use types into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System - Disposition• water puts and takes
into/from rivers, dams, aquifers centralised or self-extracted desalination option quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels transfers between the 29 river basins
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System – Dam/River Balance
• water storage stock and river flows all additions and extractions
brought together diversions from river to dam release of storage down river river network included
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Water Account System – Energy Required• energy for water services
potable treatment & pumping treatment & pumping for recycling
(sewage, other discharges, stormwater)
local re-use desalination inter-region transfers
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Key common assumptions
• population growth 4.9 million by 2050 Victoria in Future
• climate change “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050 CSIRO
• intensity of water use marginal increase response to climate change
• irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor DSE
• electricity consumption / generation growth at 2% pa per capita unchanged technology
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whatIf? Modelling Tools
www.whatiftechnologies.com
Other key scenario assumptions• water end-use
no change (2a, 2b) solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine (1a, 1b, 2c, 2d)
• in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings• water services
conventional catchment (1a, 2a, 2c) desalination (to meet new demand) (2b, 2d) alternative (1b)
• rainwater tanks– in 20% dwellings– 1 kL
• re-use of industrial wastewater– 20% of flow
• re-use of wastewater at central treatment– 20% of flow