What’s the Future of Michigan Dentistry?

By Drew Eason, M.A., CAEAssistant Executive Director

S P E C I A L R E P O R T

EXCLUSIVE MDARESEARCH RESULTS

This year, and for the past sev-eral years, it seems we“Michiganders” have been

subject to an unceasing barrage ofgloom-and-doomscenarios aboutMichigan’s econo-my. Every day in thepapers we read ofmore trouble in theautomobile indus-try, more manufac-turers who are“outsourcing” toMexico or China,and the growingnumber of “forsale” signs in thestreets of our com-munities.

It makes you won-der what the futureholds. As a state,are we really head-ed for the skids, orare we just goingthrough one of our periodic roughpatches as we evolve from a manu-facturing-based economy to some-thing different?

More importantly, what does thismean for the practice and profes-

sion of dentistry here in Michigan?We’ve had it good for a long time. Isthat about to change forever?

People are wondering. People aretalking. TheMichigan DentalAssociation hasbeen watchingMichigan’s econom-ic climate veryclosely over thepast few years, too.The MDA’s leader-ship is well-awarethat the state isexperiencing morethan its share ofeconomic turmoil.But until recentlythe MDA did nothave a clear answerabout what all thisreally meant forMichigan’s dentalcommunity.

Now, thanks to acomprehensive study conducted bythe American Dental Association’sJackson Brown, Ph.D., we have abetter picture of the future ofMichigan dentistry. And believe it ornot, the future looks pretty good.

There’s no shortage

of doom and gloom

about our great state

of Michigan and what

the future holds for

our economy. But what

about the profession

of dentistry? Are we

in for rough sledding,

or maybe a new

golden age?

JOURNAL OF THE MICHIGAN DENTAL ASSOCIATION • NOVEMBER 2006 33

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The Future of Dentistry(Continued from page 33)

Let’s take a look at some of the key findings of thestudy.

No work force shortage. First, the number of den-tists in Michigan is expected to match the demand for den-tal services without a significant work force shortage orexcess capacity. According to the Jackson Brown study, thenumber of dentists in private practice will increase duringthe next 20 years — but the growth rate will be slow andthe population-to-dentist ratio will decline slightly. Thecapacity of the dental delivery system will increase duringthe next 20 years, mostly due to improved productivity.

Slower growth in demand. Demand growth inMichigan may be slower than for the entire nation. Thisdecrease in demand will be due to various reasons, includ-ing a low rate of population growth in the state, an agingpopulation, an increase in the poverty level, and loss ofjobs providing dental benefits. Much of this remains aquestion mark at this point.

Disadvantaged populations in Michigan areexpected to increase. Due to economic problems, statebudget pressures, and a lack of insurance coverage, it isexpected that our state’s disadvantaged population willgrow, thereby exacerbating the access-to-care issue. Thereare two sides to the access-to-care dilemma. In some areas,we see plenty of dentists, but too many people who cannotafford services. What is the answer? Public policy deci-sions play a key role here.

In other areas of the state, there are not enough den-tists to go around, and this trend may grow more pro-nounced. Several recognized dental health professionalshortage areas already exist in Michigan — often in ruralareas. The question is, how do we attract dentists to prac-tice there? In addition to incentives for dentists to go tounderserved areas, are there other things that can be doneto address this problem?

Growing maldistribution of dentists. Related tothe access-to-care problem is the maldistribution of den-tists in the state: There are too many dentists practicingin the southeastern portion of the state and not enoughpracticing in the northern regions, the rural areas, andthe Upper Peninsula. Consequently, underserved popula-tions in these areas will continue to face a shortage of den-tists to serve them. Many of our new graduates areexpressing interest in practicing in suburban Detroit ormetropolitan Grand Rapids, with much less interest insmaller communities. Is such an attitude shortsighted ontheir part? Certainly many excellent opportunities willexist for dental professionals who are willing to give it a goin many of our smaller communities.

No large impact on dental practice sales. We’renot hearing that dentists in the larger cities are strugglingto sell their practices, and there are few indications thatthis will be the case in years to come. However, we do hear

Here’s What Our Future Looks Like

Demandl Michigan’s population will grow more slowly than

the national average.l As baby-boomers reach 65, elderly will grow in num-

bers and as a percentage. Disadvantaged minorities willincrease in number and as a percentage.

l The Michigan economy has been growing moreslowly than the national economy. However, per capitapersonal income has been growing at about the samerate as the nation.

l The slower aggregate economic growth is due toslow population growth. If this continues, demand fordental services could also grow more slowly.

l Total real spending for dental services has been level.l Real gross billings per dentist have increased slight-

ly, indicating that in the past the increase in demand hasslightly exceeded increase in supply.

l If demand is sluggish and the supply of practicingdentists increases rapidly, the gross income of dentistscould be adversely affected. This would make it difficultto attract dentists to practice in Michigan.

Supplyl Dentists in private practice will increase during the

next 20 years, but the growth rate will be slow. l Population-to-dentist ratio will decline slightly.l The productive capacity of the dental delivery sys-

tem will increase during the next 20 years due toimproved productivity.

Dental Studentsl One out of six dentists practicing in Michigan is

originally from another state.l The MDA’s concern is that over the last several

years, more students seem to be leaving Michigan topractice and more students seem to be from out of state.

l Dental students from Michigan tend to stay in thestate.

MDA Membershipl The MDA’s membership is aging along with the rest

of our society. This means fewer full-dues-paying mem-bers to pay the association’s bills.

l Additional sources of non-dues revenue will be nec-essary to fund the MDA.

Source: 2006 MDA Membership Report and L. Jackson Brown, Ph.D.,

American Dental Association Health Policy Resource Center.

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