When someone mentions highereducation, no one instantly thinks ofonline courses and distance educa-tion programs. Nevertheless, we arerapidly entering a new era in whichour economy, our higher educationinstitutions, and our societal struc-tures experience a profound acceler-ated digital transformation. In thisnew era of the world-wide web, in-ternet-powered innovation, artificialintelligence, going paperless, drones,smartphones, robotics, big data, andsoftware algorithms, our society isimpacted in a strategic and priori-tized way by leveraging organiza-tional activities, processes, andcompetencies.

This new era’s rapid pace ofchange and the quest for knowledgepromises to change learning dramati-cally, alter the social context of edu-cation practice and affect the wayseducation prepares learners. Today,we are a knowledge society largelydue to the vast amount of open ac-cess to information. As technologychanges with staggering speed and asdevices become smaller, faster andbetter, technology becomes a criticalcomponent of the growth of knowl-edge in higher education and our so-ciety. Because this new era is fluidand ever changing, lifelong learninghas become an individual necessityfor all people.

Perhaps nothing today is pushingdistance-learning education into thelimelight more than the dynamics ofthe 21st-century life. We have arushing rate of daily integrated tech-nological change in our daily livesthat requires everyone to constantlylearn. From online shopping toATMs and online banking, socialnetworking to online dating, auto-matic bill pay to driver’s license re-newals, texting to reading an entirebook, eChecks to digital wallet tech-nology, smart TVs to live webcastevents, apps to play a game to find-ing your parked car, people have touse different forms of technology tomeet their everyday needs.

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

Jill Karn, chief operating officer, Pierce Colleges

BusinessBy Patti Martin Bartsche

What’s Ahead in

2018As the new year dawns, few industries are moredynamic and challenging than the death-care landscape.All around we see experimentation and change in a timewhen the future of funeral service is evolving.As we begin 2018, we asked some of the death care’stop experts and innovators to share their predictions for theyear ahead. Here, they share their visions of the future ofcremation, education, memorialization, technology and more.

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

Our lives have become so inextri-cably linked with our digital com-panions, fueled by the internet, thatmany of us are actually fearful ofbeing without their companion –sometimes colloquially known as“nomophobia.” In this morphingcontext, we have a need to have tech-nology and knowledge accessible. Alternative instructional formats

such as distance learning can providegreater access for adult learners. On-line education is rapidly changing theface of higher education. According tothe Distance Education Enrollment Re-port 2017, nearly 30 percent of allhigher education students in the UnitedStates are taking at least one distancecourse, with 14 percent taking exclu-sively distance courses – this is huge!Conducted by the Digital LearningCompass organization, this report

states that the number of higher educa-tion students taking at least one dis-tance education course now tops sixmillion. This proliferation of online de-gree programs has significantlychanged the higher educational accesslandscape for learners of all ages. Distance learning has been around

since 1892; only the infrastructure haschanged. The promise of accessibility ofknowledge and technology in the class-room is almost entirely dependent onreliable infrastructure. Infrastructure isnecessary to support access, such astechnology support systems, learningmanagement systems, help desk and ITsupport, faculty and staff developmentsystems, online payment systems, net-work infrastructure, student informa-tion systems, course managementsystems, and proctored test systems.Teaching and coursework software is

also used to distribute assignments,manage schedules and communicationsand track student progress.At Pierce Mortuary Colleges, we

understand the thirst for knowledgeand learning accessibility. We areworking to provide all students whoare seeking a funeral service educa-tion with a high-quality and afford-able postsecondary experience. Thisyear, we launched our higher divisionBachelor of Science in Funeral Ser-vice Management program at Mid-America College of Funeral Service,and this month, we will be launchingour new online associates in AppliedScience program at Dallas Institute ofFuneral Service and Mid-AmericaCollege of Funeral Service. As you explore your future of

learning in funeral service education,we invite you to unleash your imagi-

Barbara Kemmis, executive director, Cremation Association of North America

At the state level, our industry willgain more regulations. Whether it iscertifying or licensing crematoriesand crematory operators, or legaliz-ing alkaline hydrolysis, regulatoryfocus on cremation will grow. In re-sponse to this trend, the CremationAssociation of North America hasupdated its Model Cremation Law toserve as a resource for legislators,regulators and practitioners alike.The good news is that the crema-

tion rate has exceeded 50 percentand the rate of cremation growth willslow. Recent CANA research shows

that the annual growth rate, hoveringnear 2 percent, will decline to 1.5percent and continue to decreaseover time. Cremation is the new tra-dition in the U.S.A., so now is thetime to revisit and work on your cre-mation business plan.Marketing efforts will increasingly

be targeted to the different cremationsegments in order to be successful.CANA’s demographic researchshows that key census demographicscorrelate to high acceptance of cre-mation. Roaming populations aretransient, less affiliated with religion,

have higher education levels and in-come. They seek personalizationalong with their cremation. Rootedpopulations live where they grew upand are tied to manufacturingeconomies. They have a strong affili-ation with Christianity and may havelower incomes and education levels.They seek tradition with their crema-tion. Are you prepared to serve thesepopulations? How can you get to“yes” to serve their needs?

The long-expected review of theFuneral Rule will likely begin during2018. Officially listed for review in2019, there are indications that theFederal Trade Commission staffwould like to move up the proceed-ings to consider issues such as post-ing prices online, and possibly

expanding the rule’s coverage to in-clude all sellers of funeral merchan-dise or services.The lucrative, expanding, and large-

ly unregulated industry of selling non-transplant body parts will become amajor issue in 2018. The issue hasbeen long simmering, the Reuters

news agency published a three-part in-vestigative report in October 2017called “The Body Trade: Cashing Inon the Donated Dead.” The role offuneral homes will be examined dueto their perceived relationship as thego-betweens with the families of thedeceased and the body brokers.

Robert M. Fells, general counsel, International Cemetery, Cremation and Funeral Association

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

Matthew Bailey, president, Bailey Family Funeral Homes

I think there has been a growing di-vide in funeral service with both firmsand providers falling into two distinctcamps. On one side you have peoplewho believe that the industry haschanged for the worse, would not rec-ommend others to enter into the profes-sion and refuse to adapt to thecontemporary consumer. On the otherside you have people who still believethat funeral service is a noble professionthat is full of opportunities to makeboth a real difference and a living.I believe that in 2018 we are going

to see a continued acceleration of in-

dividuals identifying with one ap-proach or the other. The first groupdescribed is going to double down ontheir mindset. After another year ofwhat they perceive as decline anddisappointment, they will grow in-creasingly tired and frustrated, theywill persist in voicing resentmentover the modern client families wework with, and, in all likelihood, wewill see an increase in their exodusfrom the industry. This will be good news for those

who have chosen the better path, astheir counterparts who promote a

path that creates or reinforces nega-tive perceptions by the consumer willhave less influence. There will be theopportunity to acquire firms forgood companies looking to expand.The pessimists that don’t leave andcontinue on will find that the valueof their businesses will continue todecrease, providing better acquisitionopportunities for the progressive, op-timistic industry leaders. Hopefullythis natural selection process willlead to a bright future for those whobelieve the best days of funeral ser-vice are still to come.

Funeral directors will take a closerlook at the cremations they handle.They are beginning to recognize thatcremation is not the “be-all-end-all” –it is simply a means of disposition.Most owners track their firm’s crema-tion rate, which they can then easilycompare to that of their state. Howev-er, some of them will delve deeper intoanalyzing those numbers. It is impor-tant to know how many of the crema-tions handled involved directdisposition versus how many of themwere accompanied by some sort of vis-itation or memorial/graveside service.Of equal importance, they should con-sider how they might have betterserved those direct disposition familiesby providing some options. Raisingyour awareness of how many opportu-nities have been lost to enhance boththe services and revenue will providethe impetus to improve on that in thefuture – let that be the fodder for culti-vating some creative ways throughwhich choices and options can be of-fered, even for the most difficult situa-tions, and even if it is something small.Funeral directors are being called

upon in alarming numbers to deal withthe families who have suffered the lossof a loved one from an opioid over-dose. Reaching beyond the servicesthat you provide to those families

grappling with such tragic losses, it willbe essential for owners to look insidetheir own walls … at themselves andtheir staff … to evaluate everyone’sown mental health. How are you deal-ing with burnout, overload and all ofthe emotional aspects of coping withthese deaths? Talk about it, be a com-fort to one another, and seek outsidehelp, if necessary. Funeral directors will increasingly

turn their attention to getting a bigger“bang for their buck” in as manyways as possible. Many will seek toreduce expenses wherever they areable. So, we can expect owners to dili-gently work to a) negotiate with ven-dors for not only better discounts ontheir merchandise, but also for greaterofferings and selections; b) scale backtheir advertising to increasingly usethe avenues that have proved to bemost effective and eliminate the un-productive advertising that they mayhistorically have felt obligated to con-tinue; c) evaluate their staff’s perfor-mance and productivity – who isdoing what and are they doing it well?If so, what makes them effective attheir tasks? Can employees enhancetheir skillsets in ways that will preparethem to contribute more to the firm?d) building more of a relationshipwith professional associations, many

of which are paving the way to offermore services to their members. Forexample, the New York State FuneralDirectors Association is developing anew partnership program withproviders who offer their services toassociation members at discountedfees. Value-added services and provid-ing more for less is quite desirable onany level.Use of social media will continue to

expand and improve. Many industryexperts are providing excellent adviceand guidance. This is making it easierand more effective for those who aren’ttech-savvy to have a strong onlinepresence. With many owners at or near re-

tirement age, sales and acquisitionsof funeral homes will continue to in-crease. Owners will increasingly con-sider the question, “Do I hang on foranother couple of years or sell now?”Many feel that their business haspeaked under their leadership andthat it’s time to transition to a newowner who can take the firm to thenext level. Simultaneously, there aremany buyers out there who aresearching for good firms, and strongcash-flow lenders are poised andready to lend to qualified buyers.That combination is conducive to athriving sales and acquisition market.

Melissa A. Drake and Kathy D. Williams, American Funeral Consultants

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published byKates-Boylston Publications,

W. Ashley Cozine, president, Cozine Memorial Group,past president National Funeral Directors Association

Funeral service will continue to haveits work cut out for itself in 2018. Thetrend toward cremation and the con-sumer’s search for nontraditional op-tions will continue to increase. Those funeral directors who still

have the mindset of business as usualand are unable to come to grips withchange will become more and moreirrelevant in the minds of familiesseeking something different. Viewingthe body, the service, gathering to-gether with family and friends, andmemorialization have never lost theirimportance and value to the grievingprocess. However, over time, manyfuneral directors have lost sight ofthis and have simply become order

takers instead of true professionals of-fering advice and solutions to thereal needs of the family. Funeral di-rectors need to reclaim their status ofproviding invaluable services to thepeople of their communities. It’s pasttime to step up to the plate, becomelifelong learners and raise the bar ofour profession. We must do a betterjob of listening and develop an atti-tude of continual improvement. Ifwe don’t do this individually and asa profession, the gap will be filledand ultimately replaced with some-one outside of funeral service. Let’smake 2018 the year to reclaim ourdedication and commitment to thefuneral profession.

David Nixon, president andpartner, Nixon ConsultingInc./Heartland FuneralSolutions

I thought quite a bit about theforecast for 2018. Here are somerandom thoughts:

An increasing number of funeralhome owners will discover thatcheaper cremation prices havedown-shifted their revenues as cre-mation rises. Not that they were notforewarned – but they have ignoredthe problem.Some firms, already operating in

the red, will fail. There will be morestories about preneed fraud and op-erational suicide.Firms in rust belt-like communi-

ties will be hardest hit by babyboomers who failed to save for re-tirement and for funerals.Some casket companies will con-

tinue to raise their prices faster thanfuneral homes can pass those costsalong to their client-families.More next-generation funeral

home owners will opt for othercareers.Higher numbers of funeral home

owners will discover that their in-vestment in real estate represents abetter yield than their funeral busi-ness itself.Consolidation will continue at a

faster pace as baby boomer ownersexit their business. Some communi-ties will no longer have a hometownfuneral home, forcing residents togo out of town.Considerable opportunities will

exist for financially sound funeralhome owners to grow call volumethrough attrition of smaller funeralbusinesses.The growing shortage of quality,

qualified, licensed funeral directorswill continue. Even more challeng-ing will be finding true funeralhome managers.The increasing outside interest in

funeral service will continue withmore off-the-wall concepts and pri-vate equity firms looking to capital-ize on the baby boomer impact onthe death rate – real or perceived.

Having spent years in packagedgoods (grocery products) marketingsometimes gives me a unique perspec-tive on other industries and profes-sions. Consider that at one time, therewere just a few brands of breakfastcereal, and only a few varieties. Thesame goes for soup. The same withspaghetti sauce. Even the same withthe local markets that people used toshop. Now look at what’s happened:Today, there are literally scores ofbrands in any category of food, offer-ing every possible style, size and fla-vor. And if you don't want to shop atyour general supermarket, you nowhave a wide field of choices, from theneighborhood Walmart to the big or-ganic food store to Amazon, for goshsakes! Once the explosion of choicebegins to happen, it's hard to hold itback.So, let’s jump to the funeral side of

things. For over a century, there’sbeen basically one flavor of funeral(at least for any given faith or popula-tion group), and just a few funeralhome choices in town. But this is nowin the process of changing, and notjust due to cremation, although that iscertainly a critical driver.Technology, non-churchgoers,

non-funeral event venues, shiftingfamily values and outside enterpris-es eyeing the funeral business are allat the cusp of driving entirely newpossibilities in funeral service. Thegenie is now leaking out of the bot-tle, and there’s no putting it backonce it’s out. In time, the funeralchoices for the American family willbe as plentiful and acceptable as fla-vors and brands of spaghetti sauce. So my prediction for 2018 is that

we’ll see many more options open upfor families, many of which willthreaten the “traditional” funeralhome. The solution is to take one’shead out of the sand now and be onhigh alert. Stop poo-pooing new anduntraditional options because theymay be tomorrow’s standards. Beginto visualize what your funeral estab-lishment could be in five years given aworld of near-endless choices forfamilies and start to rebuild your ownbrand for that now. Just think back on how different

grocery retailing was barely a decadeago and see how it’s looking today. Ifthe small corner market has all butdisappeared, what does that say forthe future of the small mom-and-popfuneral home?

Dan Katz, president and creative director,LA ads – A Marketing Agency

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

It's impossible to highlight any oneevent that will take place in 2018. Ican tell you that many trends aregoing to continue with strong fervor.As far as topical issues, I believe that

we’re going to get much better at un-derstanding and managing to reason-able human resource objectives. It'snot that this is a profession that hashad many instances of misconduct, butsensitivity is going to be extremely highfor the next several years. We need to have written job de-

scriptions and proper review tech-niques. We also need written policiesthat explain harassment and sexualharassment. HR management is notan option anymore, no matter howsmall or big your company. On the business front, we will see

more contraction. American manu-facturers are going to be consolidat-ing with each other through mergeror acquisition. Distribution lines aregoing to need to expand to handle

more products or the distributors aregoing to be decreasing their income.At the risk of offending 97 percent ofreaders, we're going to need to bechoosing to sell foreign-made mer-chandise, and be proud of it. We’re going to continue to see

more floor space at conventions filledby technology providers. Technologyis the key to effective marketing, op-erations, communications andmemorialization. Operators are going to need to

learn to be proactive and transparentabout their pricing. Cremation is nota race to the lowest denominator.Transparency of pricing demon-strates professionalism. There are more and more investors

looking to own funeral homes andcemeteries. The modest return on awell-run funeral home or cemeterybeats the snot out of a well-managedlow-risk bond fund. To prepare this profession for the

future, we finally need to get it to-gether on realigning our educationalneeds with our licensure needs. Un-fortunately, I don’t think 2018 willbe the year. We cannot focus on li-censure requiring embalming as a re-quirement. Rather we have to look atlicensure on three levels:• Those that want to be prepared

for the back room and cremation cer-tifications needed as a body specialist. • Those who want to be focused

on the front room, making qualityarrangements.• We are going to need a level of

paraprofessional, so staff can operateunder the supervision of a licenseeand still be very effective but nothave to take two to four years inschool to be licensed. We must also correct the negative

employment rate that we have in thisprofession by hiring quality peopleand allowing them to communicateproperly with families.

Daniel M. Isard, founder and president, The Foresight Companies

Wes Johnson, president/CEO, Continental Computer

As always, a precise expectation ofthe future is unknown. However, aswith other tasks such as budgeting,review and analysis of historical in-formation often provide an accuratepicture of what the future holds –provided there is no unexpected ab-normality or catastrophic event.A look back at funeral service his-

tory reveals no rapid change in recentyears. Cremation rates will continueto rise at a steady rate while whathistorically may have been consid-ered a traditional service will contin-ue to decline at a slightly steeper rate.The one constant with funeral serviceis there is no lack of potential cus-tomers. The customer base will al-ways be present; funeral service willcontinue to adjust to meet the chang-ing demand.Technology has existed for many

years in the industry. Many remainreluctant to adapt and embrace tech-nology for the usefulness technologyprovides. Suppliers will continue topeddle their wares and old technolo-gy will remain available simply as a

result of demand and not its abilityto contribute to the bottom line.Thousands of businesses still refuseto give up the IBM typewriter, eventhough supplies are almost impossi-ble to find.There will be the introduction of

some new products and ideas, but ifone looks closely, they may simply be asmoke-and-mirror reproduction ofwhat has been available for decades. Ibelieve this could be one reason funeralservice is often seen as moving slowlywhen accepting new technology. Itcould be that funeral service adapts totechnology at a pace as quickly asother industries. It may be that the in-dustry does not receive new, relevanttechnology at the rate other industriesfind it available. For example; funeralservice professionals having been suc-cessfully operating for decades in theircommunity recognize a tool is a tool,and appropriate for a specific job.Painting the tool a different color in anattempt to sell more tools adds novalue, it just added a little smoke andanother mirror. If technology were

being introduced to the industry at thepace health-care technology is intro-duced, I would expect a dramatic in-crease in new technology adoption.Recognizing the changing market of

death care, professionals need to makesure they have a very close relationshipwith their prospective market. Knowyour customers well. Maintain contactwith families through surveys and one-on-one communication in the commu-nity. Anticipate the cremation rate andplan accordingly. Evolve with the de-mands of your family’s needs and de-sires. If given the opportunity, attendsome training in event planning. Itwould not be time wasted. Learn andoffer new ways of incorporating cre-mation into the business model. Acceptthe inevitable. I expect little change in funeral ser-

vice in 2018. As history has defined fu-neral service, professionals willcontinue to see change in the demandof the consumer. Successful profession-als will recognize change, acceptchange and adapt to change like theirfuture depends on it, because it does.

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

Exciting days are ahead for the funeralprofession. I wake up each morningready to go to work because I neverknow what to expect. Yes, we haveour share of challenges, but what busi-ness doesn’t? If we are aware of thechallenges, we can work on solutions.The key to overcoming the challengesis not just developing the solution, it’shaving a bias to take action – actuallydoing something about the challengeswill lead to success.Here, in my opinion, is what’s

ahead for funeral service in 2018:

Cremation versus Traditional FuneralsWe will continue to see more crema-

tions versus traditional funerals, butthe trend will slow in 2018. However,the primary question should be,“What are we doing, as a professionto educate and inform families con-cerning the value of ceremony, memo-rialization, and/or celebration?”Cremation or burial is just a means ofdisposition – we must educate familiesthat a funeral service is much morethan disposition. That is why FuneralDirectors Life has created a websitefor people searching for informationabout funerals – funeralbasics.org. Inaddition, we have formed a partner-ship with Alan Wolfelt, noted author,educator and grief counselor. Over theyears, we (all of us in the funeral pro-fession) have done a very poor job ofeducating and informing the generalpublic about the value of what we do.We believe that families understandmore about funeral service than theyactually do.

Functioning in a Low-Interest-RateEnvironmentInterest rates will show little change

in 2018. The persistent low-interest-rate environment has not only affectedthe growth rates that funeral homesreceive on preneed funeral plans, but ithas also affected senior citizens andtheir retirement income. People whothought they had saved plenty ofmoney for retirement are having to goback to work because the interest in-come they receive on their retirementfunds is not enough to support their

lifestyle. In fact, the Bureau of LaborStatistics has shown that 22.4 percentof the labor force is people above theage of 55 in 2016, as compared to16.8 percent in 2006 (an increase of 7million people). Between now and2024, they are estimating the laborforce growth rate of the 75-and-olderage group will be 86 percent. It’s nowonder that senior citizens and theirfamilies are more concerned aboutmonthly living expenses and less con-cerned with buying funerals.

TechnologyIn 2018, funeral homes will adopt

technology at a much higher rate thanever before. The funeral profession hasbeen hesitant to accept new technolo-gy. The argument has been twofold: 1)“If we adopt new technology we willtake away the personal nature of ourbusiness” and/or 2) “If we providetechnology for our families to use, thenmy role, as the funeral director, will bediminished.” These two argumentscould not be further from the truth.Today, the use of technology is expect-ed by customers/families, and when abusiness does not have the technologypeople are accustomed to using inother businesses, they are disappointedand dissatisfied. By allowing familiesto collaborate with the funeral homesonline prior to the arrangement confer-ence (like through Passare’s collabora-tion center), funeral directors arereporting that they are having moretime to plan meaningful tributes, andin the process, families are happierwith the services they provide.

Hiring Quality Funeral Directors During 2017, funeral home owners

showed more frustration with regardto hiring quality funeral directors towork in their funeral homes. Thistrend will continue in 2018. In orderto remedy the shortage of quality fu-neral directors, funeral home ownersshould consider two solutions: 1) im-proving the efficiency of the funeralhome through technology (i.e., Pas-sare) so that additional staffing is lim-ited and 2) starting a long-termprogram of bringing younger people

into the business and assisting themwith the appropriate schooling in ex-change for a commitment to a term ofservice at the funeral home (with con-tinuous mentorship in the process).

Continued Funeral Home ConsolidationAs funeral home owners continue

to see: 1) their profit marginssqueezed, 2) their kids refusing tocontinue the business, 3) their crema-tion percentages increasing with nodesire to change their strategy, and 4)their families showing less loyalty, wewill witness even more consolidationwithin our profession. Regional funer-al home consolidators will grow – thistrend was evident in 2017, and it willbe even more evident in 2018. Alan Wolfelt explained that most

businesses go through three phases: 1)formative, 2) normative and 3) inte-grative. He stated that the “forma-tive” stage is when a business/industryreally starts taking shape, and it be-comes obvious that the business con-cept will actually work. The“normative” stage is when processesare established within the industry,and all the individual businesses takehold of these successful processes –and good times are had by all. The“integrative” stage is where outsidefactors begin to affect the previouslysuccessful business processes and sig-nificant change must occur in theoriginal model, itself, in order to onceagain return to the normative stage.As Wolfelt states, and all of us mustagree, “funeral service is in the inte-grative stage.” Society has beenchanging – families and their expecta-tions of a funeral home are much dif-ferent today than they were a decadeago. And let’s face it, as a profession,we have been resistant to changingwith society.2018 will be a pivotal year for the

funeral service profession. Here’s thekey question: Will we, as a profession,begin to make the changes necessaryto keep up with the new funeral con-sumer or will we continue to resist thechanges we know are necessary tomove from the integrative stage backto the normative stage?

Kris Seale, president and CEO, Funeral Directors Life Insurance Co.

This article originally appeared in the January 2018 issue of American Funeral Director, published by Kates-Boylston Publications,and is being shared with permission. Visit www.americancemetery.com to subscribe.

Bob Bukala, president and CEO, Foundation Partners Group

Due to the relatively slow pace ofchange, this industry has nurtured a classof believers and nonbelievers. Those thatbelieve are the leaders of businesses thatrecognize that change is coming and theyneed to be prepared for the change. Forthose that are nonbelievers, they may ac-knowledge that change is out there, butthey don’t believe that it will impact thembecause their business is different. In thiscase, I think I would rather follow theBoy Scout motto and “Be Prepared!” • Continued consolidation in the in-

dustry – no big surprise here, but as thenumber of consolidators continues to in-crease, there is a good chance that someof these firms may not survive. Due dili-gence of the buyers by the sellers may be

more important than the buyer’s duediligence of the seller.• Continued increase in cremation

will accelerate the need to sell in highlycompetitive markets or where the busi-ness owners have not adjusted theirbusiness model to the “new” economicsof the cremation business.• Increasing demand for higher levels

of service from discriminating and better-informed consumers – if you are going tocharge a premium price, consumers areexpecting a premium level of service.• Consumers will increasingly look for

those firms that can deliver highly differ-entiated services at a reasonable price.• With many funeral homes not meet-

ing the needs of the consumer, many

families will look for other event-plan-ning resources to fill the gap such aschurches, hotels, wedding planners, etc.By not meeting this need, we will contin-ue to invite competition.• The consumers’ desire to “control

their service design” will increase activi-ty around advance planning. This willincrease preneed opportunities and so-lidify market share for those who em-brace this trend.• The demands of the consumer will

make the talented funeral director theMVP of 2018. A war for talent is brew-ing in the industry driven by a wave ofretirements and a dearth of the righttype of talent coming from mortuaryschools. •

The often-asked question is, “What isthe future of funeral service?” No oneknows the answer for sure, but if recenttrends are an indicator, there are somecontinued headwinds in front of us. Let’stake a look.Of course, the most dynamic factor

that has been taking place is the continu-ing rise in cremation. The cremation ratewill continue to increase in 2018. Yearover year, the overall rate will probablyrise another 1.4 to 1.8 percent. The realissue is that this increase will put contin-ued pressure on the bottom line. Crema-tion will also expand in parts of thecountry that have never really been affect-ed that much in the past. It is here to stay.We also find it interesting that low-costcremation companies entering their mar-ket are now affecting some of the most-re-spected early cremationists. Another factor that will continue in

2018 is the entry of low-cost discountersin the markets we serve. This factor start-ed in large metropolitan areas, but it isnow heading into second- and third-tiercities and even some rural areas of thecountry. Everyone must be prepared forthese new entrants to come to your area.There are ways to handle these compa-nies, but it is not easy and takes continuedfocus to do so.We certainly see the rise in cremation

affecting our clients, yet at the same timefor those families who still want burial,

there are many that are opting for lesserservice options and lower casket purchas-es. Therefore, there is sort of a dual effectto funeral homes’ bottom line. Because ofthis, it is most important that funeral di-rectors are very well trained in presentingthe many options that are available in thecremation and burial arrangements. Forthose companies that are proficient indoing so, there is not as much loss as theygo forward. Those who do not see the im-portance are in a way, dying on the vine.You must be at your absolute best in2018 and the years ahead to conquerthose headwinds.We know for a fact that there will be

more merger-and-acquisition activity in2018 and expect that trend to continue inyears ahead. This is probably a result ofthe factors mentioned above: cremation,discounters and lower burial service andcasket income. When funeral home own-ers continue to see the erosion of theirbottom line, one answer is to sell. Thatpiece is what we are seeing today. It ishappening with small- and medium-sizefirms as well as some of the more-promi-nent larger firms in our profession. So suf-fice it to say that there will be a lot ofconsolidation in 2018, just as there wasthis past year.Technology will advance in 2018 as

many of the client families seek alterna-tives through that venue. It is amazing tous that there are still many funeral direc-

tors in the United States that still do nothave a web site. If nothing else, everyoneshould have one, and, in fact, should beupgrading it on a regular basis. Thenthere are the many other venues such asFacebook, Twitter, etc. that have the abil-ity to pull families into your funeralhome. To not take advantage of these so-cial media channels is almost suicidal inlarge metropolitan areas. Interestingly,there are many success stories in ruralareas where small- and medium-size fu-neral homes are taking advantage of so-cial media and their competition is juststanding still. That is where the future isgoing. It is time to get on the bus if youhave not already done so.Some will look out to 2018 and beyond

and just think the trends are too signifi-cant to continue on. We really do notthink that is the case. There is the oldaxiom that states, “Some people makethings happen, some people watch thingshappen and then there are some that justare wondering what is happening.” Don’tbe a wonderer or a watcher, make thingshappen at your funeral home. Those thatstay focused on their business, plan theirfuture and work their plan will do justfine. No, things will not be the same. Butthose that see it as an opportunity can ad-vance their businesses in these times.Don’t fear the future, embrace it. It couldbe the springboard to good times ahead,starting in 2018.

Jake Johnson, president and CEO, Johnson Consulting Group