What would happen in a repeat of the 1679 earthquake near Beijing? Robert Muir-Wood Chief Research Officer CONFIDENTIAL

MOST FATAL HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES IN CHINA

Rank Year Earthquake Fatalities

1 1556 Huaxian, Shaanxi 830,000

2 1976 Tangshan, Hebei 242,000

3 1920 Haiyuan, Ningxia 235,502

4 1303 Hongdong-Zhaocheng, Shanxi 200,000

5* 2008 Eastern Sichuan (Wenchuan) 87,579

6 1718 Tongwei, Gansu 75,000

7 1695 Linfen, Shanxi 52,600

8 1739 Pingluo-Yinchuan, Ningxia 50,000

9 1668 Tancheng, Shandong 47,615

10 1679 Sanhe, Hebei-Pinggu, Beijing 45,500

Source: Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China * From USGS http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/world/most_destructive.php

M8 earthquakes in continental China

0 800km

1931

1906 1902

1951 1950

1833 1604

1668

1679

1879 1654

1927 1739

1556

1303 1695 1920 8-8.4

8.5

Magnitude Only complete

since 1900

2008

2008 WENCHUAN EARTHQUAKE

- Highest casualty event since 1976 Tangshan - Reconstruction of lifelines to higher seismic

standards

Source: Preliminary Report on Wenchuan Earthquake, Wang, 2008

Source: http://www.geodifhs.com/nea/-sichuan-longmenshan

Haiyuan Fault rupture history

1

8

3 2

4 5

7 6

9 West segment Middle segment East segment

X1000 yrs before present

1920 M8.5

Based on palaeoseismic fault trenching studies

A B C

Palaeoseismic/Historic recurrence intervals in China

0 800km

2300 (M8)

1670 (M7.7)

2000 (M7.6)

3300 (M8)

600 (M7.6)

200 (M6.8)

900 (M8)

2500 (M8)

1600 (M8.5)

6500 (M8) 7500 (M7.8)

decreasing strain rate

decreasing strain rate

Beijing

2500 (M8) Recurrence interval yrs Earthquake size

2008 AND 2013 EARTHQUAKES ALONG LONGMENSHAN FAULT ZONE

Source: Chen et al, (2013) in Chinese Science Bulletin

- The southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone becomes wider towards the south with an increasing number of secondary faults (with weaker surface activity).

- - 2013 earthquake fills the seismic gap around Lushan on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone.

H Mar 7th (77)

Tangshan Cascade and connected aftershocks

B

C

July 27th A

Mar 12th (77)

F

D July 28th

G Aug 31st

Nov 15th E

118E 119E

40N

39.5N

50km

1976 TANGSHAN EARTHQUAKE

Downtown Tangshan (aerial view of damage)

- Major updates to the 1978 building code - Rebuilt on same site with majority of

population in permanent dwellings by 1985

Source: RMS Report on Tangshan Earthquake, 2006

1679 1665 1720

Active tectonic controls of the landscape around Beijing

Regional seismic cycle in North China region

1369-1483 1484-1667 1668-1695 1696-1730

1668

1679 1683

1695

4.75-5.9 6-6.9 7-7.9 8-8.4 8.5

Magnitude

THE 1679 M8.0 SANHE-PINGGU EARTHQUAKE

Source: RMS Report on 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake, 2007

Surface fault scarp in Xiadian (epicenter), Dachang caused by

the 1679, M8 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake

1679 Earthquake

‘Mountains fell and the ground gave way. The ground surface was split and black water gushed out from it. Damaged houses and buildings were like hills and dead corpse were lying here and there.’

- In the Annals of Sanhe County: “many houses collapsed and the remaining fire in kitchen ranges spread underneath the ruins.”

GROWTH OF BEIJING OVER TIME

Source: http://archinect.com/blog/article/75175957/beijing-rising-of-walls-and-walkways

Today’s skyline

Beijing building stock

1960s (retrofitted after 1976)

1970s

1980s

1990s

THE 1679 M8.0 EARTHQUAKE IMPACTING MODERN BEIJING

Source: http://www.satimagingcorp.com/gallery/more-imagery/cbers-2/cbers-2-beijing/

- Value at risk in Beijing districts alone

- 2.1 trillion RMB (commercial and industrial)

- 1.3 trillion RMB (residential)

Beijing Exposure_15m

VRG Soil 60km

CALCULATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS TO PROPERTY AT RISK

- Losses to districts of Beijing Province over 1.25 trillion RMB ~ $200 Billion USD

- 780 billion RMB (commercial and industrial)

- 470 billion RMB (residential)

CALCULATING THE IMPACTS TO PEOPLE AT RISK

- Casualty estimates very uncertain – very dependent on time of day

- Casualties between 200,000 and 300,000 people (including fatalities and injuries)

Only a small percentage of economic losses will be recovered from insurance

- Take-up of earthquake insurance remains low, though is increasing year-on-year

- Proportion of property exposure in Beijing with earthquake coverage is under 10%

- Assuming c. 5% of the economic loss is recovered by insurance

- Insured losses from a repeat of the 1679 earthquake would be approximately 60 billion RMB (10 billion USD)

INSURANCE IMPLICATIONS