what we’ve done since june 2007
DESCRIPTION
What we’ve done since June 2007. Michael Steele & Wendy Ermold Polar Science Center / Applied Physics Laboratory / University of Washington, Seattle WA USA. Web site Animation script consultation SST study updated through 2007 Freshwater studies with (i) Polyakov & (ii) Rawlins/Serreze - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WAWhat we’ve done since June What we’ve done since June
20072007
Michael Steele & Wendy ErmoldPolar Science Center / Applied Physics Laboratory / University of Washington,
Seattle WA USA
• Web site
• Animation script consultation
• SST study updated through 2007
• Freshwater studies with (i) Polyakov & (ii) Rawlins/Serreze
• PHC update
• Start of seasonal/annual mean PP analysis
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
The web pageThe web page
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
PeoplePeople
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
GraphicsGraphics
How to organize our new synthetic plots?
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
DataData
How to organize our new synthetic DATA?
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
OutreachOutreach
Animation…Animation…
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
LinksLinks
• Others?
• Announcement on ArcticInfo?
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Private SectionPrivate Section
Username: mas
Password: st33l3
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WAAnimationAnimation::
1:30 pm today1:30 pm today
SST study:
• Refresher on bias & binning issues/techniques
• Updated through 2007
…using satellite data & model output
SST study:
• Refresher on bias & binning issues/techniques
• Updated through 2007
…using satellite data & model output
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WASPATIAL BIASSPATIAL BIAS
Mean SST = 2.2 C Mean SST = 1.9 C
Example: East Siberian + eastern Laptev Seas
Temperature (ºC)
Raw Data 50km bin averaged
dense dense WARMWARM profiles profiles
sparse sparse COLDCOLD profiles profiles
PP binning: getting done!PP binning: getting done!
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WAFake trendsFake trends
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3
cold
warmer
hot
datadatadatadata
Solution: subtract out the mean spatial field
Trend analysis: still to doTrend analysis: still to do
spatially biased samplingspatially biased sampling fake regional-average fake regional-average warmingwarming trend trend
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
World Ocean Database ’05(in situ data)
Beaufort-W
summer
Mean summer (Jul-Aug-Sep) Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
(0-10 m)
50 km bins
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Summer (jul/aug/sep) SST trends: regional anomalies
Summer (jul/aug/sep) SST trends: regional anomalies
(f) Chukchi
(a) Beaufort-E
(c) Bering St
(e) Kara
(d) ESS+ Laptev
(b) Beaufort-W
sum
mer
SST
(C
)
Reynolds et al
recentwarming
recentwarming
recentwarming
in situin situsatellitesatellite
WOD’05
smoothedsmoothed
3.25 std dev3.25 std dev
3.05 std dev3.05 std dev
sum
mer
SST
(C
)su
mm
er S
ST (
C)
mean =mean = 2.7°C 2.7°C mean =mean = 0.4°C 0.4°C
mean =mean = 5.9°C 5.9°C
mean =mean = 3.1°C 3.1°C mean =mean = 2.9°C 2.9°C
mean =mean = 2.3°C 2.3°C
Is warming starting to matter to PP?
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Ocean heat fluxes: Ocean heat fluxes: summer summer 20072007
(Jul-Aug-Sept)(Jul-Aug-Sept)
Surface heating (Fsw)
ice
Everywhere!Chukchi + w. Beaufort
Lateral heat flux convergence
ice
…using Jinlun Zhang’s ice-ocean model
ocean currents are important north of Alaska
but most places, it’s solar heating
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
(1) Polyakov et al.…in press
(1) Polyakov et al.…in press
Russian shelf anomalies are:
(a) out of phase with central
Arctic Ocean
(b) much smaller than central
Arctic Ocean anomalies
Freshwater studiesFreshwater studiesFreshwater studiesFreshwater studies
(2) Rawlins et al. …in prep. (2) Rawlins et al. …in prep.
Mackenzie R.
24% fresher with variable river discharge24% fresher with variable river discharge
TerrestrialP-E incr.
’96/’97
Riverdischarge incr.
’96 – ‘98
Lakedischarge incr.
’98
Oceanshelf FW incr.
’96
Sea ice melt decr.
’97/’98
Beaufortgyre FW incr.
’97-’02
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
PHC updatePHC update
• Fram Strait / EGC
• Bering St / Siberian shelves
• MLD lobes …later
…in progress……in progress…
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Seasonal/annual mean PP analysis
…later…
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Ongoing:
• Update our T, S data base
with data from 1990s & 2000s
Barely started:
• MLD/stratification temporal change study
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
XCP
satellite SST
SST + MLD = heat contentoverestimate
model
But! Model’s heat contentunderestimated?
Conclusions:
• Ocean transport < shortwave …probably
• Need further analysis of the in situ IPY data!
Courtesy of J. Morison, F. McLaughlin, A. Proshutinsky
Chukchi Borderland (75.7°N, 156°W) Aug 7, 2007
Heat content uncertaintyHeat content uncertaintyHeat content uncertaintyHeat content uncertainty
Temperature (°C)-2 0 2 4
Dep
th (
m)
100
50
0
Beaufort Slope (70.8°N, 140°W) Aug 1, 2007D
epth
(m
)
0
50
100
Temperature (°C)-2 0 2 4
modelmodel
obsobs
Maybe not everywhere…
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
WOD’05WOD’05data distribution,data distribution,
colored by: colored by:
Temperature (ºC)
Years
TemperatureTemperature
Earliest YearEarliest Year
0-10 mJuly, Aug, Sept
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
Raw data histograms
Temporal BiasTemporal Bias
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WAThe solution: Multiple Regression
T = a + bx + cy + dPHC(x,y) + eyear
spatial fieldspatial field
Anomalies are defined relative to the mean spatial field over a given time period.
…no “intra-year” predictor
^
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WA
July-Aug-Septsatellite SSTanomalies
(rel to 1982-2007)
July-Aug-Septsatellite SSTanomalies
(rel to 1982-2007)
Temperature Anomaly (C)
2000 2001 2002
200520042003
2006 2007
boring!
2007:What a year!
Max Anom 5°CMax Anom 5°C
Sept 16
1982-2007:
Michael SteelePolar Science Center / APLUniversity of Washington
Jan 28, 2008Arctic PP obs
wkshpSeattle, WAHow much
warming is fromocean transport?
ice
20-30%20-30%
-1 -0.5 0 +0.5 +1
Alaska
Russia
lateral heat flux convergencenet ocean heating
100%100%
fadv
fadv
Jul-Aug-Sep 2007