what the future holds for nuclear energy? · akira omoto, tokyo institute of technology...

akira OMOTO, Tokyo Institute of Technology

[email protected], [email protected]

What the future holds for nuclear energy?

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Outline

2A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018

1. Introduction

2. Projection of energy to 2050 and the role of Nuclear Energy

3. Paradigm shift in power sector

4. Complementary use Nuclear Energy and Intermittent Renewables in Carbon-Constrained World

5. Take-aways

Global trend on energyResources availability, Demand, Public aspiration on sustainability, Technological innovations…. Projection of energy represents results of model

calculation considering these factors

Public perception on nuclear safety and waste

Cost of NNB (New Nuclear Build)

Role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world

Yet unknows….

Factors that would influence the future of NE….


IAEA Scientific Forum 2018: “Nuclear Technologies for Climate: Mitigation, Monitoring and Adaptation”

Use of low carbon energy: helps mitigate GHG emission and its adverse effect

Use of isotopes and radiation:monitor environmental changes and enable adaptations

[source] J. Orr, Laboratory for Sciences of Climate and Environment (LSCE), France


However, be prepared to avoid loss of credibility in discussion..

Many factors involved inGlobal Warming…volcano eruption, solar activity, earth’s magnetic field, Milankovitch cycle (10(5) yr) etc.

Also ocean surface pH change: may not simply attribute its trend to equilibration with atmospheric CO2

(http://landscapesandcycles.net/ocean-acidification-natural-cycles---uncertainties.html)

[SOURCE] Vostok Ice Core Data Graph


[Ex.] Dr. A. Tsuchida’s argument:Heat from Sun temp. changeatmospheric CO2 level change by supply from ocean (Henry’s law)

[SOURCE] Kevin Loria, “The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere just hit its highest level in 800,000 years”, 2018June


Nevertheless, recent sharp rise in atmospheric CO2 level by human activity is worrisome….

1. Introduction




5. Take-aways


[SOURCE] World Energy Outlook 2009, Fig 5.8, primary energy

End use

Efficiency

To achieve 450ppm (2DC) goal

Projections of demand/supply of primary energy

Renewables

Nuclear

CCS

World Energy Outlook 2009


[SOURCE] Priyadarshi R. Shukla, IPCC, WGIII Co-Chair, “The Paris Agreement and Global Low Carbon Transition Towards 1.5DC” , 2017, based on Sterner and Bauer, WBGU2016

WBGU(German Advisory Council on Global Change) 2016

Global primary energy


Global primary energy supply by sources in detail

The Jü rgen Schmid scenario: a vision of a global renewable energy system by 2050[SOURCE] WBGU (German Advisory Council on Global Changes) 2016

Solar

Wind

Biomass

WBGU 2016


Primary energy supply in Japan

[SOURCE] IAE, 2018

Others

Liq. Hydrogen

Renewables

Nuclear

Natural gas

Coal

Oil

Renewables

Oil

Coal

IAE (Institute of Applied Energy) 2018


[SOURCE] Komiyama, UT, year-2050 projection, 2017

UT (University of Tokyo) 2017


Nuclear share of 20％～22％@2030 in Basic Energy Plan 2014

as near-term goal in Japan (Basic Energy Strategy 2018)(10(8)kWh)

【Ge

ne

rati

ng

cap

city

】

Capacity factor：70%

Nuclear share:20～22％

12%〔20units〕

2４％〔42units〕

（FY)

60 years operation

40 years operation

To secure nuclear share of 20％～22％@2030①Restart ②Life extension beyond 40 years ③NNB

De-fact phase-out in case limited restart, no 60 years, no NNB

15 years necessary for replacement

[Source] FEPC


For example: How SMR may change NNB How digitalization impact energy

• NEA report: efficiency focus• Energy-hungry cloud

computing and Data center• Power consumption by use

of blockchain technology is ever increasing

Austria

Philippines

Venezuela

ChileCzech

Finland

TWh

/yea

r

Yet, unknowns…..


Projections imply high expectations on 1) GHG emission reduction and 2) renewables:

What is the role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world?

How Nuclear co-exist with Intermittent Renewables?

Major constraintsA) Achieving deep decarbonization with minimum societal burdenB) Current role of Nuclear is limited only to power…need to expand to other sectors


The role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world

1) Supply of affordable, clean & reliable energy (electricity, heat, energy carrier)

2) Power supply to NETs, if conservation fails

Ex. BECCS (Biomass with CCS)

3) Radiation & Isotope: Monitoring, adaptation…

4) Complementary use with intermittent renewables & address intermittency-related problems in the grid etc……

[SOURCE] US-EPA, based on IPCC2014 16A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018


1. Introduction




5. Take-aways

Comparison of unsubsidized levelized cost of electricity, not including social/environmental externalities nor intermittency-related cost

“Solar becomes the cheapest source of electricity generation in many places including China and India”

(F. Birol, IEA OECD, 2017 World Energy Outlook)

[source] Lazard’s levelized cost of energy analysis (2016)

$/MWh


Paradigm shift to Renewables

Changes in the share of renewables (2004-2014)(including dispatchable renewables)

[SOURCE] Liebreich, BNEF, 2016


China Annual investment on capacity: Wind & PV >> Nuclear FIT for Wind & PV

[SOURCE] Lu Zheng, Energy Data and Modelling Center, China


[SOURCE] Renewable Energy Foundation

Kyushu’s daily load curve and the share of solar power on sunny weekend

[source] Kyushu’s electricity forecast 2017.4.24

Coping strategies by Kyushu Electric• Pumped storage• Large scale batteries（300,000kWh)• Curtailment as necessary

Japan

Installed solar power> Nuclear (2016.12)• Due to a) reduced nuclear plants and

b) increased PV• Qualified solar ~80GWe

Solar power

[10,000kw]

Hour

Installed capacity

Nuclear

Solar

Estimation using JAIF and IEA data


Abandoned golf course to PV site

[SOURCE] BusinessInsider.com


Deep penetration of Intermittent Renewables(Hypothetical curve in Germany 2030)

Wind

Nuclear

[SOURCE] Universität Stuttgart, “Compatibility of renewable energies and nuclear power in the generation portfolio”, 2009


2/3 of US NPP are not profitable (MIT, March2017) now;

….. shale gas and IRs


[SOURCE] Negative Electricity Prices and the Production Tax Credit, The NorthBridge Group, 2012

Negative price

“Must-run” nuclear (capital-intensive and no quick reaction to demand change)

WIND: Negative price bidding by wind down to PTC($34/MWh)

THERMAL: Bidding to recover fuel cost

Iowa state in windy and low demand time

High demand period

Low demand period

Positive

Negative


Paradigm shift to supply-contingent utilization system

[SOURCE] J. Specht, E.ON, 2014August


Electricity transaction by Energy Resource* Aggregation business (ERAB) and Peer-to-Peer business in microgrid using blockchain

Forecast in J (Gwe)2020 2030 x 0.1=ERAB

HEMS 21 47 4.7BEMS 16 31 3.1FEMS 5.3 10 1EV/PHV 4.5 44 4.5

SUM=13.2GWe(4% out of 300 Gwe@2030?)

* Energy Resource post-FIT surplus electricity, Demand-side management, EV, Battery

EnergyResource Aggregator

Market

Power suppliers

[source]http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/kenkyukai/energy_environment/energy_resource/pdf/001_04_00.pdf

Peer to Peer transaction

EMS: Energy Management System

Sweden France Denmark GermanygCO2/kWh 11 46 174 450cent/kWh 20 22 41 40Intermittent Renewables 10% 5% 51% 18%Dispatchable clean energy 88% 88% 15% 25%

[source] METI based on IEA “CO2 Emission from combustion” 2017

However, mere increase of IR does not lead to GHG emission reduction/ affordable price


• The target of UK Climate Change Committee is 50gCO2/kWh.

• MIT’s recent report says around 10–25 gCO2/kW is a target to meet 2DC goal. The global current average stays at around 500gCO2/kWh.

[SOURCE] Energy Matters

Europe: Per capita installed capacity of Wind & PV vs. tariff


Market values Nuclear/Thermal IR [note]

kWh value Yes Well fitted merit-of order of marginal cost

Adequacy

kW value (capability to cover peak &

anytime demand)

Yes (dispatchable)

No (Availability depends on

weather

Capacity marketBattery storage

DkW value (flexibility to

demand changes)

Load following orComplementary

use

No (Availability depends on

weather

Battery storage Complementary use

Intermittent Renewables (IR) : Power System Adequacy & burden


Public burden by FIT/PTC:Reduction of oil/gas import offset by increase of FIT by 2030 (Japan)

1. Introduction




5. Take-aways


Japanese rule for Curtailment of IRs to avoid grid stability/reliability issue while allowing grid connection of IRs as much as possible (since 2014)

1. Curtail thermal power to its lowest possible level2. Absorb excess electricity by pumped storage (hydro)3. If still surplus exists, curtailment is possible up to 30 days without compensation

On the premise that all the above three are satisfied, decide maximum IR capacity for grid connection [for each grid (Utility) for each year].

(example) 7.3GWe of solar power against 8.2GWe lowest demand for Kyushu for 2017

Demand curve


https://www.vox.com/2018/5/9/17336330/duck-curve-solar-energy-supply-demand-problem-caiso-nrel

Drop of demand as PV increases in California (duck curve)


Nuclear & Intermittent Renewables: Considered as conflicting with each otherNuclear: IR is distorting market by FIT/PTC IR: N is destroying environment


Why complementary use?Because,• Both contribute to security (GHG emission, domestic energy

supply)• Both are capital-intensive; high capacity factor is required for

economics no curtailment of IR, no load-following of NPP

Principle of complementarity:

Bohr and Heisenberg, 1937 (Source: Heisenberg Society)

http://heisenbergfamily.org/Biotext/Bio-004.htm

Nuclear Power’s production of electricityLess when price is low, more when price is high revenue

Industrial heat/Hydrogen

Partial heat storageStored heat used for

power generation

Store partial heat in Nuclear, when Sun is shining or Wind is strong Use stored heat for electricity generation when Sunshine/Wind is weak

Nuclear Hybrid Production by switching productdepending on supply from IR

Heat storage

Examples of technologies for complementary use

[source] C. Forsberg, MIT


http://www.google.co.jp/url?url=http://greeningforward.org/nuclear-power-the-good-the-bad-and-the-beautiful/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=CwYmVfWBHYPq8AXOxIGYCA&ved=0CDYQ9QEwEA&usg=AFQjCNGSrLyMskwB9uSb6Dx3uKITc340jwhttp://www.google.co.jp/url?url=http://greeningforward.org/nuclear-power-the-good-the-bad-and-the-beautiful/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=CwYmVfWBHYPq8AXOxIGYCA&ved=0CDYQ9QEwEA&usg=AFQjCNGSrLyMskwB9uSb6Dx3uKITc340jwhttp://www.google.co.jp/url?url=http://greeningforward.org/nuclear-power-the-good-the-bad-and-the-beautiful/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=CwYmVfWBHYPq8AXOxIGYCA&ved=0CDYQ9QEwEA&usg=AFQjCNGSrLyMskwB9uSb6Dx3uKITc340jwhttp://www.google.co.jp/url?url=http://greeningforward.org/nuclear-power-the-good-the-bad-and-the-beautiful/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=CwYmVfWBHYPq8AXOxIGYCA&ved=0CDYQ9QEwEA&usg=AFQjCNGSrLyMskwB9uSb6Dx3uKITc340jw

Nuclear solution in response to load demand in the grid: Heat Storage


Storage by steam accumulatorother options available: CAES, Firebrick, Hot rocks…

Charlottenberg Power Station, BerlinSteam Accumulator since 192950MWe separate turbine from67 MWh tanks : 16x4.3m(D) x 20m (H)

Khi Solar I (South Africa) Steam Accumulator19 accumulators, 130 kWh/m3

37A. Omoto, Titech, IAEA CS 12-15Nov2018

Many Heat Storage Technologies can produce peak power

Steam Accumulators

Sensible Heat

Cryogenic Air

Packed Beds

Geothermal

Hot Rock

Pilot Plant

Thermal storage for LWR retrofit: installation of steam accumulator and oversized turbine-generator



Compatibility with increased share of intermittent renewables requires system flexibilities to deal with Intermittency (variability & uncertainty) : flexible generation: such as load following of NPP and curtailment of renewable storage and/or hybrid production of energy carriers: such as by

battery or Power2Gas on renewables side

smart grid management including Demand side

Electricity storage cost: MIT “Future of Nuclear Power in Carbon-Constrained World”, 2018


Use of rare elements (Li/Co)

in the earth’s crust

[source] Forsberg, Omoto et al, MIT-Japan Study “Future of Nuclear Power in a Low-Carbon World: The Need for Dispatchable Energy”, MIT-ANP-TR-171, Nov. 2017

RN&S: natural gas, solar, wind,

pumped hydro and battery

storage

+DMS1: all of the above RN&S

plus demand side management

+DR1: all of the above plus

demand response (curtailment)

RN&S & LWR: RN&S plus LWR

+DMS2: all of the above RN&S

& LWR plus demand side

management

+DR2: all of the above plus

demand response

CHP: all of the above plus heat

storage and combined heat and

power systems

NACC: Nuclear Air-Brayton

Combined Cycle

Cost of decarbonized electricity


In the long run…Nuclear hybrid production: Industrial heat/Energy carrier

Using HTGR, SFR, Molten Salt Reactor….HTTR (JAEA, Japan)

Operated at 950 deg C

Hydrogen production by

thermochemical water

splitting on lab. Scale

While reactor is kept at

rated power, use of

control valves and bypass

valves enables automatic

response (in production of

electricity and hydrogen)

following grid demand

change



Candidate reactor technologies for hybrid production and nuclear topping cycle


Coal-fired plants reaching 610 deg. C steam condition Gas turbine reaching 1800 deg. C by blade cooling and resistant material

[SOURCE] Univ. of Virginia


[source] Shannon Bragg-Sitton, Light Water and High Temperature Reactor Opportunities, June 2016 Golden WS


Hybrid production by intermittent renewables: P2G

Power to gas project (Germany)


（Existing）FIT-CfD, Curtailment of intermittent renewables etc.

• Use of MAC (Marginal Abatement Cost) curve for policy making • Carbon tax• FIT for all low carbon sources (technology-neutral)• Low-carbon Portfolio Standards• Subsidies to all storage as

infrastructure (tech-neutral)

What changes in market rules are required for both to stand?

46A. Omoto, AESJ-NDD, 30November2018[Photo] Forbes, 2016 August, Albany NY

Key is “clean energy equality”


Published papers and webinar

1) MIT-J study reports, 2016 April & 2017 Sept

2) AESJ, 2016 April & 2018 April3) CEM webinar, 1/2Nov2018https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a-axHsnGUA&index=6&t=0s&list=PLKRmGa9s99JU9y8VL7Fjn812Wv0vr_m2f

4) IFNEC/NICE FUTURE meting, Nov2018

1. Renewable energy aspiration & realitymay coincide with valuation on decentralization, “nature knows best”, “small is beautiful”

2. Role of nuclear energy in carbon-constrained world

3. Complementary use of Nuclear and Intermittent Renewables for deep decarbonization with minimum burden to the Society

4. High temperature reactors (HTGR, SFR, MSR…) for hybrid production

5. Uncertaintieswarming by atmospheric CO2, energy saving, future price of battery, renewable power smoothing (EV, P2G…), PV in the market (J: Year 2019, 2022, 2032) etc. etc.

Take-aways


….Thank you for your attention

what the future holds for nuclear energy? · akira omoto, tokyo institute of technology...

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