What Shapes Children’s Development?

Evidence from Young Lives cohort study

Paul Dornan

paul.dornan@qeh.ox.ac.uk

Presentation aim:

- Key findings from draft synthesis paper

- Reflections for policy and programming

Young Lives study:

- Mixed-method cohort study following lives of 12,000 children over 15 years

- Children growing up in Ethiopia, Andhra Pradesh, Peru and Vietnam

Starting principles

• Children’s lives are lived multi-dimensionally, even if

policy is delivered sectorally. Achieving objectives

within a sector, requires acting beyond it

• The earliest years are critical in shaping children’s

health, capacities and opportunities. The impact of

some early deprivations may be irreversible, but in

some circumstances recovery may be possible

• Looked across the early life course, disadvantages

typically accumulate. Identifying the key triggers for

diverging pathways that open up (or close down)

opportunities is the first step to ensuring equity

Ways of thinking about the life course

Shapin

Societal context: physical/natural environment; jobs; infrastructure; values and norms

Household: poverty; stage of development; risk exposure

Transition events: e.g. school enrolment; family ill health or death; household change;

migration; livelihood change

Children’s development trajectories and agency: age-sensitive/critical periods; accumulated (dis)advantage

Incidence and nature of transitions shaped by social /policy change, household stage, social norms.

Impact conditioned by resilience factors

Potential Intervention Opportunities

Advantages:

• Linking earlier causes and later consequences

• Identifying the timing of when circumstances and events matter most

• Identifying the ways children’s developmental trajectories are embedded in

changing household, institutional, community and macro economic processes

Put differently: lives as lived, Teje’s story, age 9

Ways of thinking about the life course

Shapin

Societal context: physical/natural environment; jobs; infrastructure; values and norms

Household: poverty; stage of development; risk exposure

Transition events: e.g. school enrolment; family ill health or death; household change;

migration; livelihood change

Children’s development trajectories and agency: age-sensitive/critical periods; accumulated (dis)advantage

Incidence and nature of transitions shaped by social /policy change, household stage, social norms.

Impact conditioned by resilience factors

Potential Intervention Opportunities

Advantages:

• Linking earlier causes and later consequences

• Identifying the timing of when circumstances and events matter most

• Identifying the ways children’s developmental trajectories are embedded in

changing household, institutional, community and macro-economic processes

Children’s development is multidimensional with nutritional

status predictive of both later learning and psychosocial well-

being

Height at 15

years

Cognitive

skills at 15

years

Psychosocial development

at 15 years

Height at 12 Predicts later

height in four

countries

Predicts later

learning in

three countries

Does not predict later

psychosocial development

Cognitive skills

at 12

Predict later

height in one

country only

Predict

learning in

four countries

Predict later psychosocial

development in two

countries

Psychosocial

development at

12

Does not predict

later height

Predicts

learning in two

countries

Predicts later psychosocial

development in one county

only

Source: Sanchez, A. (2013) The structural relationship between nutrition, cognition and non-cognitive

skills: evidence from four developing countries, Young Lives Working Paper 111

Example: interdependencies between domains of development

Children’s development is multi-dimensional with nutritional

status predictive of both later learning and psychosocial

wellbeing

Height at 15

years

Cognitive

skills at 15

years

Psychosocial development

at 15 years

Height at 12 Predicts later

height in four

countries

Predicts later

learning in

three countries

Does not predict later

psychosocial development

Cognitive skills

at 12

Predict later

height in one

country only

Predict

learning in

four countries

Predict later psychosocial

development in two

countries

Psychosocial

development at

12

Does not predict

later height

Predicts

learning in two

countries

Predicts later psychosocial

development in one county

only

Source: Sanchez, A. (2013) The structural relationship between nutrition, cognition and non-cognitive

skills: evidence from four developing countries, Young Lives Working Paper 111

Example: interdependencies between domains of development

Children’s development is multi-dimensional with nutritional

status predictive of both later learning and psychosocial

wellbeing

Height at 15

years

Cognitive

skills at 15

years

Psychosocial development

at 15 years

Height at 12 Predicts later

height in four

countries

Predicts later

learning in

three countries

Does not predict later

psychosocial development

Cognitive skills

at 12

Predict later

height in one

country only

Predict

learning in

four countries

Predict later psychosocial

development in two

countries

Psychosocial

development at

12

Does not predict

later height

Predicts

learning in two

countries

Predicts later psychosocial

development in one county

only

Source: Sanchez, A. (2013) The structural relationship between nutrition, cognition and non-cognitive

skills: evidence from four developing countries, Young Lives Working Paper 111

Example: interdependencies between domains of development

Early circumstances are critically important to later

development across domains of children’s development

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

Heig

ht

for

age b

y 8

years

(z-s

core

s)

Child average height-for-age

at age 8 by household

characteristics at age 1

(2002), Ethiopia >>>>>>>

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Math

s te

st s

core

(out

of

29 q

uest

ions)

Child average maths scores

at age 8 by household

characteristics at age 1

(2002), Ethiopia >>>>>>

But considerable change in development indicators beyond the

very earliest period of life

Example: change in height-for-age status between 1 year and 5 years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Ethiopia Andhra Pradesh Peru Vietnam

Chid

lren s

tunte

d/n

ot

stunte

d a

t 1 (

%) Stunted at 5 years

Not stunted at 5 years

Lundeen et al. (2013) ‘Growth faltering and recovery in children aged 1-8 years in four low– and

middle-income countries: Young Lives’, Public Health Nutrition

But considerable change in development indicators beyond the

very earliest period of life

Example: change in height for age status between 1 year and 5 years

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Stunted Notstunted

Ethiopia Andhra Pradesh Peru Vietnam

Chid

lren s

tunte

d/n

ot

stunte

d a

t 1 (

%) Stunted at 5 years

Not stunted at 5 years

Lundeen et al (2013) ‘Growth faltering and recovery in children aged 1-8 years in four low – and

middle income countries: Young Lives’, Public Health Nutrition

Faltering

Physically recovering

With the risk of the accumulation of disadvantage with age

Example: change in vocabulary performance, Ethiopia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

PPVT at 5 PPVT at 8

Avera

ge p

erc

enti

le r

ank

Children from better offhouseholds with high initialscores (N=266)

Children from poorer householdswith high initial scores (N=88)

Children from better-offhouseholds with low initialscores (N=60)

Children from poorer householdswith low initial scores (N=186)

But with more encouraging evidence that good policy can make

an important difference

Example: maths test results across grade 5 in Vietnam (age 10)

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

Oct-11 Apr-12

Average

Kinh

EthnicMinority

Source: Rolleston et al. (2013) Making Progress: Report of the Young Lives School Survey in Vietnam,

Young Lives Working Paper 100

What might have helped?

- Forms of teaching (e.g.

nature of curricula, ability

of teachers)

- Not being selected into

poorly performing schools

(e.g. Infrastructure,

teachers etc.)

Systematic and life-course differences in the

ways in which services are experienced

Example: access to pre-school, entrance and exit from formal school in Andhra Pradesh

Children and young people in different age

phases face different pressures and

determinants of later transitions and outcomes

• Household central mediator of opportunities, with health a major feature. Households with young children likely to face particular need. Therefore anti-poverty policy likely to be pro-child.

• Universalisation of schooling places school central in lives and expectations of young people. Policy can create ‘cliff edges’ triggering e.g. changes between schools; exams within schools

• As children grow older, experiences widen, towards school and wider society. At older ages ‘social’ risk becomes increasingly important

Children and young people in different age

phases face different pressures and

determinants of later transitions and outcomes

Dercon, S. and A. Singh (2011) From Nutrition to Aspirations and Self-Efficacy: Gender

Bias over Time among Children in Four Countries, Young Lives Working Paper 71

-2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5

Ethiopia

AP India

Peru

Vietnam

Maths test score gap

15

12

8

Pro girl Pro boy

Example: test scores at by age stage

Implications

• Poverty a risk factor across age points:

- Effects accumulating with age

- With evidence of interaction between domains

• Early circumstances are vital, but there is dynamism after the earliest point (recovery and faltering) – potential for policy? Identification of key ‘transitions’?

• Effective policy can narrow gaps, but often doesn’t. Equity concerns need to focus within systems

• Data revolution. Need for both monitoring of the extent of disadvantages and evaluation to inform policy choices

Finally - future agenda

1. Analysis of Rounds 1- 4 (for Younger Cohort ages 1-12 years; for Older Cohort ages 8-19 years). Fourth round being analysed now, launch events September 2014

2. Key themes for planned analysis Nutrition

• Child nutrition, growth and development.

• Mothers’ life-long nutrition history

Cognition and school-based learning

• School-based learning

• Cognition, nutrition and early care

Personal and social development in adolescents and youth

• Life-transition choices (including partnership, parenthood and work)

• Risk behaviours

Across all, trajectories and determinants of multi-dimensional disadvantage

3. Fifth (and currently final) round of data collection in 2016. Data will then be available on phases from early childhood to early adulthood.

Thank you