WHAT IS THE DARK SIDE OF GLOBALIZATION?

• Moises Naim’s central argument in Illicit: The globalization of crime is fundamentally changing global politics:

• The scope of crime is unprecedented Before the economic crisis = 30% of the global GDP

• The merging of criminal violence and political violence: Colombia, Mexcio, & Russia

• The emergence of criminal states: N. Korea, Afghanistan, Nigeria, & the Caucus countries

WHY ARE THINGS SO BAD NOW?

• The transportation revolution:Container ships, immigration

• The information revolution:Learning & research, networking, finance

• The political revolution:Democratization & state collapse

• The economic revolution:The crime/free markets tradeoffShrinking the state

WHAT ARE THE SIX WARS (HEY, HE SAID FIVE)?

The wars (should we even use the word war?)• The five smaller wars: Drugs, arms, intellectual property,

human smuggling, money laundering• The big: The war on terrorismAre we winning the war on drugs?• In 1990, drugs = 61B

2006 = 15% of all global trade, $1T• US alone spends $40 b fighting drugs• Winning the war drugs by going to the source?

Colombia, Afghanistan, & MX• Should we legalize them?

Are we winning the war on Illegal arms?• 1990s=1-2B; today = as much as 10B• 550m firearms in circ, 3% used by govs.• AK-47s: made in 27 countries & 50 million in the

wrong hands• 1000 deaths a day• Should we link to small arms to WMD debates?

Why should we bother to protect intellectual property?

• 500 B annually = 7% global trade• Price to US alone: 100B annually• What’s a little software & music theft in the

information age?• WTO and TRIPS enforcement

Are we still enslaving and trafficking humans?• African slave trade over 4 centuries = 400m;

More than this in the last ten years in SE Asia• .5 m immigrants enter US illegally in yrs. Since 9/11• 7 billion dollar a year industry

What’s the big deal with money laundering?• 2-5 percent of global GNP• The prolif. of offshore banking• New efforts to coordinate the war are under way• Any other little wars we should know about?• Body organs, precious gems, endangered animals,

timber, hazardous waste, the proliferation of mercenaries

WHAT THE WARS HAVE IN COMMON?

• Stateless bases• Networks—they are organized enough, but not

quite bureaucratic • Reinforcing ties across different types of criminal

activity• Dominated by immigrant enclaves• To truly win them, you might have to rethink the

spreading of democracy and markets… Do we really want to do that?

THE BIG WAR OF GLOBALIZATION• What is terrorism?• Who: Non-state actors

(what about “state-sponsored” terror?)• Goal: Political change through fear• Method: Illegal acts of violence (does it have to

“clandestine”?)• Target: Civilians• Freedom fighters? Is terrorism ever justified under

international law?

WHAT IS “INTERNATIONAL” TERRORISM?

• The vast majority of terrorist acts are local• Most international terrorism is “transborder”• Total deaths from terrorism, 1994-2002: 5,300 with

27K injured• As a point of comparison:

World wide gun deaths in 1998: 88.5K (45% in the US)

• To what extent is Al-Qaeda a “transnational” terrorist “group” vs. a “network”

HOW IS GLOBALIZATION AFFECTING TERRORISM?

• Globalization constitutes a profound disruptions to many traditional societies… but most terrorists come from the areas least affected by globalization

• Globalization is turning “nations” into “civilizations”• Targeting audiences and bypassing state checks on

the media• Armchair terrorism and financial fluidity• Micro technology: Cellphones, instant messaging, and

triggers• Globalization makes chemical, biological, and

radiological weapons more accessible