what is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?

7/31/2019 What is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?

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What is the current and future significance of the

natural resource economy?Independent and objective evidence-based applied research on public policy issues t

impacts the economic and social development of New Brunswick and Atlantic Cana

Marc [email protected]: @marc_duhamel

FORUMeJune 5, 2012


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Source: CIRPPPA, Wor

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Emerging countries are driving the glob

natural resource economy

Source: CIRPPPA, W

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5/20Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International


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International investments flowing int

Canadas energy and minerals industr

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Why should we care?Why natural resources are important to Atlantic Canad


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Prosperity growth has been relatively

Atlantic Canada over the last dec


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Projected decline in population aged 15

Source: Statist


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Labor productivity explains

differences in GDP per capitaNL

PEI

NS

NB

GDP per capita $2010! 55,307$! 35,216$! 38,570$! 39,172$!

$! %! $! %! $! %! $! %!GDP per capita gapwith Canada, $2010! 7,676$# 100%# -12,415$! 100%# -9,061$! 100%# -8,458$! 100%# -7,2

Source of GDP per capita Gap with Canada, 2010!Labour Productivity! 15,673$! 204%! -11,817$# 95%! -8,245$# 91%! -7,989$# 94%! -4Labour Intensity! 2,636$# 34%# 813$# -7%# 519$# -6%# 2,001$# -24%# -1Employment Rate! -11,072$# -144%# -668$# 5%# -1,160$# 13%# -2,257$# 27%# -1Demographicprofile! 440$# 6%# -742$# 6%# -174$# 2%# -214$# 3%#

Source: CIRPPPA, Statistics Canada#


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Minerals, oil & gas is creating

have and have not provinc

$ 363.10


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Economic potential of

natural gas from shale is realArkansas 2009 New

Total estimated reserves (Tcf) 31.96(a)Rights holders 9 Natural gas from Shale Production (Bcf) 527(a)Average Price Henry Hub (USD/mmBTU) $3.95(a)Direct Economic Impacts

Direct economic impact per job $514,218(b)Direct economic impact (% GDP) 2.34%

Direct employment impact (% Employment) 0.40%Total Impact Factors

Total economic impact per job $291,484(b)Total economic impact (%GDP) 3.37%

Total employment impact (% Employment) 1.10%Total economic impact factor 1.44(b)

Total employment impact factor 2.54(b)Sources: #(a) U.S. Energy Information Administration#(b) Center for Business and Economic Research, Sam M. Walton College ofBusiness, University of Arkansas, 2008#


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Policy implications for New BrunswThinking fast and slow about natural gas from shale?


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Thinking fast

Source: BBC World Service, Fukushima Daiichi Reactor 3, Japan, March 2011


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economics is not driving policy developm

Source: Leonard, A. (2012), Status of Shale Gas Development in New Brunswick, CAPP, February 9.


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Source: Public Policy Resarch Lab, Manship School of Mass Communication, Louisiana State University, May 2012

Support for fracking

and hydraulic fracturing

0

0.1

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Very Safe or

Somewhat Safe

State should

encourage

With the 8- or 10-letter F word Without


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The root of it is fracture, and that's just not a very po

thing. Whether there's a fracture in a political party, or

fracture your arm, it's just nothing but negative

connotations. - , Founder and CEO, Lexicon Branding

Trust, a question of branding?

Thi ki l * b t th i ifi f


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Thinking slow* about the significance of

future policy optionsWill provinces in Atlantic Canada be able to affordtheir policy ch

What is the opportunity cost of a moratorium? Can natural gas from shale meet the needs of the present w

compromising the ability of future generations to meet their ow

What is the evidence-base of the expected policy outcomes? Economic prospects, intergenerational, labor, migration and fiscal outcomes Environmental risks and technological opportunities Effectiveness of legal and regulatory frameworks Public health, social, and First Nations policy issues

*

Kahneman, D. (2011)

what is the current and future significance of the natural resource economy?

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