What is Leadership?

A BritainThinks study

Image credit: The Guardian

We conducted unique voter-led research during the General Election campaign this year…

•  Panel of undecided voters in 5 key ‘battleground’ seats •  Conducted over two months of short campaign •  To understand what drives voting intention

Mobile ‘Election diaries’ Focus groups

You can find this research at britainthinks.com/battleground-britain

Policies, track record and local issues were less important than they seemed…

However:

22% 78%

Of the 596 election diary entries, only a fifth referred to policy areas

10%

90% While only 1 in 10 were in reference to the local campaign

How will you decide who to vote for?

“The parties’ policies.”

“What the candidates say about local issues.”

“What the local MP has been like.”

…Instead, perceptions of party leaders were crucial in shaping voting intention

“Read a funny thing in the paper about Ed Milliband. He’s been snapped picking his nose. Just made me think that he really is a joke. What’s he doing in politics?”

“In my dream government I’d have Labour with the Lib Dems in coalition because I think they’re more about working people. But I’d have David Cameron as my Prime Minister because he’s strong and confident.”

Looking back, which 3 stories stand out the most over the election campaign?

…Instead, perceptions of party leaders were crucial in shaping voting intention

Looking back over the last few months, which 3 election stories stand out the most?

Historically, perceptions of leaders are the most reliable predictors of election outcomes

So we conducted our own study into what makes a good leader – and who the best leaders are…

2015

2011/2012

Online survey

2,000 UK adults Weighted to be nationally representative

Fieldwork conducted 20th – 22nd November 2015

Focus group

Swing voters aged 30-55 London (24th November 2015)

National survey and focus groups

What makes a good leader?

1.   Being a good communicator 2.   Being decisive 3.   Having integrity

What are the most important qualities for leadership?

2%

4%

6%

13%

13%

14%

17%

18%

26%

26%

27%

37%

41%

51%

Don't know Being pragmatic Being energetic

Being tough Being authentic

Being charismatic Having humility Having empathy

Having conviction Being a good listener

Having a vision Having integrity

Being decisive Being a great communicator

Q2. Of all the qualities below, please select the three that you think are most important for leadership. (Base = 2,014 UK adults)

Being a great communicator was widely seen as the most important leadership attribute

“You need to be inspiring. You need to get people to follow you.”

Swing voter, London

“It’s about explaining things in layman terms not political jargon. They need to be understood by the many.”

Swing voter, London

Proportion of UK adults selecting ‘being a great communicator’ as one of three characteristics most applicable to each leader. Base = 1,007 UK adults

37% 22%

29% 26%

“They can manipulate your emotions so that you vote with your heart not your head!”

Swing voter, London

Being decisive was the second most widely selected attribute for leadership

“Make decisions and don’t be afraid to be disliked. The reality is you can’t please everybody and be liked by everybody. Be clear and consistent.”

Swing voter, London 36%

36%

34%

31%

Proportion of UK adults selecting ‘being decisive’ as one of three characteristics most applicable to each leader. Base = 1,007 UK adults

“Churchill rallied the people during the war. He took a massive risk but saw his decisions through.”

Swing voter, London

Having integrity is the third most important attribute for leadership

“Most politicians don’t actually go and do things. They set out a great manifesto but then don’t act on it.”

Swing voter, London

24%

22%

18% 20%

Proportion of UK adults selecting ‘having integrity’ as one of three characteristics most applicable to each leader. Base = 1,007 UK adults

“You wouldn’t associate politicians with integrity. They just say the things you want to hear.”

Swing voter, London

Who are the most effective leaders?

The individual that most embodies the qualities of leadership…

Q1. Which individual, living or dead, would you consider to most embody the qualities of leadership? (Base = 2,014 UK adults)

“Great orator, inspirational. Took his own decisions. You knew where he stood with him. Black and white, like it or not.”

“People respected him. He oozed power. When he spoke, you listened.”

Churchill Index: how leaders fare compared to Churchill on the attributes that matter

100 (Churchill

Index)

Being a great communicator

Being decisive

Having integrity

APPROVAL FAVOURABILITY

Churchill Index: how leaders fare compared to Churchill on the attributes that matter

17.98 21.35

25.84 30.34 30.34 30.34

37.08 38.20

41.57 41.57

43.82 43.82 44.94

50.56 58.43 58.43

62.92 68.54

74.16 100.00

Russell Brand Jeremy Corbyn

George Osborne Boris Johnson Nigel Farage Theresa May

Prince Charles Hilary Clinton

Steve Jobs Nicola Sturgeon Prince William

Tony Blair David Cameron Angela Merkel

Alan Sugar Alex Ferguson

Nelson Mandela Margaret Thatcher

Barack Obama Winston Churchill

Total selecting ‘being a great communicator’, ‘being decisive’ and ‘having integrity’ as one of three characteristics most applicable to each leader. Rebased with Winston Churchill’s combined score = 100. Base = 1,007 UK adults

How do the current party leaders compare?

Current political leaders don’t compare favourably with Churchill on our Index

17.98 21.35

25.84 30.34 30.34 30.34

37.08 38.20

41.57 41.57

43.82 43.82 44.94

50.56 58.43 58.43

62.92 68.54

74.16 100.00

Russell Brand Jeremy Corbyn

George Osborne Boris Johnson Nigel Farage Theresa May

Prince Charles Hilary Clinton

Steve Jobs Nicola Sturgeon Prince William

Tony Blair David Cameron Angela Merkel

Alan Sugar Alex Ferguson

Nelson Mandela Margaret Thatcher

Barack Obama Winston Churchill

Total selecting ‘being a great communicator’, ‘being decisive’ and ‘having integrity’ as one of three characteristics most applicable to each leader. Rebased with Winston Churchill’s combined score = 100. Base = 1,007 UK adults

Cameron and Sturgeon are most closely associated with great communication and decisiveness; Corbyn with integrity

15% 17%

8%

3% 4%

12%

16%

12%

9%

13%

10%

4%

Being a great communicator

Being decisive Having integrity

Cameron Corbyn Sturgeon Farage

Q4. For each of the individuals below, please select the three attributes that you think most apply. (Base = 1,008 UK adults)

David Cameron •  Cameron seen as the

“best of a bad bunch” of current leaders

•  A safe pair of hands, a skillful operator who would make the right decisions

•  However, he was seen to lack authenticity and an understanding of ordinary people

“As it stands, no-one apart from him looks, speaks, walks or talks like a leader. If you voted for him, he’d just sail along.”

“Cameron would see his decisions through… but is it really him making the decisions? Is he true to himself? I don’t know what he believes in.”

Jeremy Corbyn •  Corbyn was generally seen as

the worst current party leader •  Performing worse on our

Churchill Index measure than Ed Miliband in 2011

•  Some liked him better personally than Cameron and he was seen to better understand ordinary people

•  But he was seen as inexperienced, uninspiring and not reassuring about country’s safety

“He does talk like a normal person: he answers the question and is different. But he has no gravitas and doesn’t inspire people or make you feel that the country is safe in his hands.”

“Corbyn would probably try to have a nice cup of tea with ISIS and think he could talk them round. He’s inexperienced and he’s a pacifist. That’s fine until you have to deal with people.”

Nicola Sturgeon •  Perceived as strong, articulate

and principled •  However, some found her to be

excessively concerned with Scotland and ‘Scottish issues’ to be irritating

Nigel Farage

“He is direct, he looks straight at you and has passion you can feel. He talks to the masses in a simple way.”

“She’s really strong and sticks to what she believes in.”

•  Perceived to be direct, strong and clear – but divisive •  However, some found him to be

smug (or sleazy) •  While not many agreed with his

policies or views

Of the current party leaders, Cameron is most widely perceived both to do what he believes to be right (even if unpopular) and to see through his decisions

33%

28%

22%

15%

8%

16% 17% 15%

2% 2%

Does what he/she believes to be right, even when those decisions are unpopular

Has the courage and determination to see through his/her decisions

Cameron Corbyn Sturgeon Farage Farron

Q5. For each of the statements below, please say which of the main party leaders you think it most applies to. (Base = 2,014 UK adults) / Excludes ‘None of these’

Cameron is also the leader most trusted to make decisions on the economy, Europe and national security

41%

30%

38%

12% 11% 10% 8% 7% 7% 7%

21%

14%

2% 3% 2%

Has a plan for growth in the economy

Would take a leadership role in resolving Britain's

relationship with Europe

Would take the right decisions in the interests of

national security

Cameron Corbyn Sturgeon Farage Farron

Q5. For each of the statements below, please say which of the main party leaders you think it most applies to. (Base = 2,014 UK adults) / Excludes ‘None of these’

Although Corbyn is the current party leader most trusted to put the interests of working people first and (just) to protect public services

14%

22%

30%

25%

9% 9% 13%

9%

3% 4%

Put the interests of working people first Would protect our public services for the long term

Cameron Corbyn Sturgeon Farage Farron

Q5. For each of the statements below, please say which of the main party leaders you think it most applies to. (Base = 2,014 UK adults) / Excludes ‘None of these’

Summary of key findings

Key findings 1.  Leadership is critical in driving voting intention

2.  Being a good communicator is the single most important attribute for leaders, followed by being decisive and having integrity •  Pragmatism and authenticity matter much less

3.  Churchill is the leader who best exemplifies these characteristics (and is also seen as the most effective leader)

4.  Cameron performs best out of the current party leaders, particularly in terms of his decision-making

5.  Corbyn performs worst out of the current party leaders (and even worse than Ed Miliband), particularly on communication and decision-making

If you have any questions, please get in touch with Raph at rmalek@britainthinks.com

Image credit: The Guardian