Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Duncan Price, Director, Camco

Presentation to Cambridge Cleantech 10/10/11

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

1

What is Cambridgeshire's potential?

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire is progressing well

2

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Modelling renewable energy deployment potential

3

Inputs Scenario 1 (low)

Scenario 2 (medium)

Scenario 3 (high)

Scenario 4 (high without wind)

Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%

Energy price [1]

DECC - 'low' energy prices

DECC - 'high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)

lower than current tariff rates current rates

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%

30% (0% for wind)

Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Deployment options for renewable energy

4

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Renewable electricity potential is very large

5

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge

6

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource

7

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

District heating potential lies in Cambridge and

Huntingdon

8

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Substantial infrastructure is needed

Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario

9

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Significant investment opportunity

Investment potential for each scenario in £millions

10

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Energy efficiency and renewable energy can

close the carbon ‘gap’

11

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12

Conclusions

• Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity

• There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind

• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity

• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031

• Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget

• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high

scenario

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13

Thanks

Duncan Price

Director

Camco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150

m: +44 (0)7769 692 610

e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com

172 Tottenham Court Road London

W1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com

Renewable energy delivery pathways

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 14

There are three delivery pathways

Community Public Sector Commercial

14

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15

What is the potential for each pathway?

15

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Public sector Community Commercial

De

plo

ym

en

t p

ote

nti

al

(GW

h)

Deployment potential by pathway

Wind >=6 turbines

Wind <=5 turbines

Biomass

ASHP

GSHP

SWH

PV

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 16

Community deployment potential

• PV

• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels

• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%)

• Solar water heating

• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)

• Heat pumps

• 43,000 or 15% of houses

• Wind

• 75MW or 30 turbines

16

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17

Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy

• Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms

• Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation

• Communities have access to a range of funding sources

• Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types

• Gaining access to existing and new funding sources

• Communities are maximising learning from leading practice

• Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes

• Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information

17

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities are managing energy projects effectively

• Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach

• Range of delivery options identified

• Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated

1818

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 19

Public sector deployment potential

• PV

• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels

• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%)

• Solar water heating

• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)

• Heat pumps

• 8,100 or 20% of houses

• Wind

• 27MW or 11 turbines

• Biomass

• 14 installations of 1.5MW

19

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 20

Vision for public sector pathway

• Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets

• PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres

• PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners

• Appropriate wind development on public land

• Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP

• Renewable energy transition plan for each building

• Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21

Vision for public sector pathway

• Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets

• Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL

• Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding

• Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion

• Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc.

• Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22

Vision for public sector pathway

Demonstration 2012 - 2015

Early adopters

2016-2020

Mainstream

2021-2025

•Secure resources

•Establish Community Energy Fund

Fund

• Invest in key infrastructure

• Develop PV on council roofsPV

• Consult on LDF policies

• Support community projectsLDF

•Establish Green Deal partnerships

•Secure ECO fundingEE

• Require connection to DH

• zero carbon homesCIL

•Planning protocol for wind

• Local Development Order for PV

LDF

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23

Commercial deployment potential

• PV

• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels

• 3,200 non-residential buildings

• Solar water heating

• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of buildings

• Heat pumps

• 200 or 3% of buildings

• Wind

• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or 11 turbines

• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines

• Biomass

• 14 installations of 1.5MW23

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24

Vision for commercial delivery pathway

• Investment opportunities are clearly identified

• Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1

• Benefits of growth agenda are articulated

• Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community

• Public sector is facilitating investment

• Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty

• Engaging in constructive dialogue with community

• Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 25

Vision for commercial delivery pathway

• Investment is flowing, projects being developed

• Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development

potential

• Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly

• Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial

requirements

• Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 26

Vision for commercial delivery pathway

Demonstration 2012 - 2015

Early adopters

2016-2020

Mainstream

2021-2025

•Rent-a-roof schemes

•Develop PV on council roofs

PV

•Demo projects backed by RHIBio

•Demo projects backed by RHIGSHP

•LDO supporting PV in city

•zero carbon homesPV

•anchor loads connected

•AD projects developedBio

•ASHP widely used in commercial buildingsASHP

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 27

PV deployment potential

27

3,500

4,000

4,500

-£2,000,000

-£1,000,000

£0

£1,000,000

£2,000,000

£3,000,000

£4,000,000

£5,000,000

£6,000,000

£7,000,000

£8,000,000

£9,000,000

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

£/kWp PV System Cost

Net Present Value

Discount Rate

Return on 5MWp PV Programme

£8,000,000-£9,000,000

£7,000,000-£8,000,000

£6,000,000-£7,000,000

£5,000,000-£6,000,000

£4,000,000-£5,000,000

£3,000,000-£4,000,000

£2,000,000-£3,000,000

£1,000,000-£2,000,000

£0-£1,000,000

-£1,000,000-£0

-£2,000,000--£1,000,000

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28

Wind deployment potential

28

1000

1250

1500

-£1,000,000

£-

£1,000,000

£2,000,000

£3,000,000

£4,000,000

£5,000,000

6%

8%

10%

£/kW Wind Capital Cost

Net Present Value

Discount Rate

Return on 5MW Wind Programme

£4,000,000 - £5,000,000

£3,000,000 - £4,000,000

£2,000,000 - £3,000,000

£1,000,000 - £2,000,000

£- - £1,000,000

-£1,000,000 - £-

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 29

What will the pathways look like or include?

• Compelling vision of what can be achieved

• Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation

• Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment

• Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector

• Leading county where people choose to invest

• Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted

• The public sector takes the lead

• Project plan for shared decision making

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

30

Discussion Points

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 31

What will the commercial pathways look like?

1. What investment conditions are required for the private sector to

invest?

2. How should the growth agenda be used to facilitate RE schemes?

3. What is needed to enhance or extend existing low carbon energy

schemes?

4. How should the commercial sector partner with the public sector and

local communities to deliver greater RE capacity?

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32

Thanks

Duncan Price

Director

Camco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150

m: +44 (0)7769 692 610

e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com

172 Tottenham Court Road London

W1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com