what ever happened to mysql?...–the mysql ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than...

© 2012 by The 451 Group. All rights reserved

What Ever Happened to MySQL?

Matthew Aslett

Research Manager,

Data Management and Analytics


The 451 Group


• Matthew Aslett

– Research manager, data management and analytics

– With The 451 Group since 2007

– www.twitter.com/maslett

451 Research

Information Management Operational databases

Data warehousing Data caching

Event processing

Commercial Adoption of Open Source (CAOS) Open source projects

Adoption of OSS Vendor strategies


• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015 – Assessing the competitive

dynamic

– Due any day now

– Including market sizing of the three segments

– Survey of 200+ database users

– [email protected]

Relevant reports


What Ever Happened to…


– “MySQL was very much the crown jewel of the open source database world.”

– May 2008

– “there are relatively few choices for Oracle's rivals to respond to its ownership of MySQL.”

– May 2009

– “the database market is awash with open source databases with lightweight architectures targeted at Web applications.”

– April 2011

What Ever Happened to MySQL?


– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from the rest of the MySQL ecosystem

MySQL ecosystem

Competitive dynamic


The MySQL ecosystem


Oracle keeps MySQL

17% Oracle sells

MySQL 4%

More permissive

license 8%

Oracle hands MySQL to a foundation

33%

Don't care 12%

Don't know/other

26%

Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.

MySQL users: 285

Oracle: its own worst enemy?


40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

2009 2011* 2014*

Survey conducted: December 2009 Sample: 347 open source software users.

MySQL users: 285

MySQL usage (*predicted) 2009


Response to Oracle acquisition

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205


Rating Oracle’s MySQL ownership

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Total sample: 205


– Oracle’s MySQL business faces competition from NoSQL and NewSQL technologies

NoSQL NewSQL MySQL ecosystem

Competitive dynamic


The NoSQL ecosystem


The NewSQL ecosystem


– There is an assumption that NoSQL and NewSQL pose a direct, immediate threat to MySQL

– We believe the competitive dynamic is more complex

NoSQL NewSQL MySQL ecosystem

Competitive dynamic


– 49% of survey respondents abandoning MySQL planned on retaining or adopting NoSQL databases

– only 12.7% said they had actually deployed NoSQL databases as a direct replacement for MySQL

MySQL ecosystem

NoSQL NewSQL

Competitive dynamic


– 33% of respondents retaining MySQL had considered, tested or deployed NewSQL database technologies

– Approximately 75% of the NewSQL revenue for 2011 is also part of MySQL ecosystem revenue

NoSQL

NewSQL

Competitive dynamic

MySQL ecosystem


NoSQL $20m

NewSQL $12m

MySQL ecosystem

$171m

Revenue estimates: 2011

Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.


NoSQL $215m

CAGR: 82%

NewSQL $112m

CAGR: 75%

MySQL ecosystem

$664m CAGR: 40%

Revenue estimates: 2015

Includes only software and support/subscription revenue.


Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 205

Database usage 2012



MySQL users: 165

MySQL usage (*predicted) 2012



Predicted usage swing 2012-2017



MySQL users: 165

MySQL/MariaDB/Percona/Drizzle


Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners

MySQL alternatives


MySQL replacements

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 55 MySQL abandoners


MySQL alternatives

Survey conducted: Jan/Feb 2012 Sample: 165 MySQL users

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

NoSQL

NewSQL

MySQL ecosystem

Other

Other RDBMS

Considered/Tested/Deployed

%


NoSQL and MySQL



Competitive dynamic

– NoSQL database technologies are largely being adopted for new projects that require additional scalability, performance, relaxed consistency and agility.

– Oracle claims no impact from NoSQL.

– Open source adoption under the competitive radar.

– Relative immaturity. NoSQL vendors claim 900 paying customers.

– If 25% of those replaced MySQL that equates to:

– <1.5% of the estimated installed base of Oracle MySQL paying customers.

– Or <0.002% of the total estimated MySQL installed base.


NewSQL and MySQL



Competitive dynamic

– NewSQL database technologies are, at this stage, largely being adopted to improve the performance and scalability of existing databases, particularly MySQL.

– 75% of NewSQL revenue in 2011 came from vendors that were also considered to be part of the MySQL ecosystem.

– That is expected to decline to 50% by 2015, as new databases begin to find their feet.

– Oracle is responding with additional investment in development of new features for both MySQL and MySQL Cluster.



MySQL ecosystem


Competitive dynamic

– The MySQL ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than it has ever been.

– A strong vendor committed to the core product and a wealth of alternative and complementary products.

– Oracle and the other MySQL support providers accounted for 84% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2011, followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 7%.

– MySQL support providers will account for 59% of total MySQL ecosystem revenue in 2015.

– Followed by MySQL-aaS providers with 22%, and clustering/sharding technology providers with 11%.


The bigger picture


Incumbent RDBMS and other



Competitive dynamic

– The options for MySQL users have never been greater - or more confusing.

– The most common direct replacement for MySQL is PostgreSQL.

– NoSQL and NewSQL have not made a significant impact on the MySQL installed base at this stage.

– But MySQL is no longer the de facto standard for new application development projects.

– NoSQL and NewSQL pose a long-term threat to MySQL’s position as the default database for Web applications, given their use for new development projects.


• MySQL vs NoSQL vs NewSQL: 2011-2015 – Assessing the competitive

dynamic

– Due any day now

– Market sizing

– Survey results


– @maslett


Questions?

mailto:[email protected]

what ever happened to mysql?...–the mysql ecosystem is now arguably more healthy and vibrant than...

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