what do transitions from industrial agriculture to sustainable food systems look like?
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What do Transitions from Industrial Agriculture to Sustainable Food Systems Look Like?. Global Hunger and Food Security series28 October 2011. Defining the Problem. A Collaborative Exercise. Industrial Agriculture. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
What do Transitions from Industrial Agriculture to
Sustainable Food Systems Look Like?
Global Hunger and Food Security series 28 October 2011
Defining the Problem
A Collaborative Exercise
Industrial Agriculture What three words would you use to describe
industrial agriculture and its food system?o Write these words on one half-sheet of paper.o Hand this in.
What additional words or phrases should we add to the sticky wall to complete the picture?
Challenges What challenges pose significant risks for
industrial agriculture?o Jot these down in a few words on a half-sheet of paper.o Hand it in.
Which challenges are the most threatening to industrial agriculture and its food system?
Looking Closer at Key Challenges
Energy, Ecological Degradation, & Climate Change
Challenges – Energy Use
Overall energy use in the U.S. food systemo Energy use by households (appliances, trips to grocery
store) is a bigger factor than processing, fertilizers, or food miles!
Source: Post Carbon Institute & USDA
Challenges – Energy Use
U.S. energy inputs for different foodso Daily per capita energy
input for junk foods and drinks is even higher than the energy input for animalproducts.
o Healthiest foods (fruits,vegetables, and grains) have thelowest energy input.
o Total daily per capita energy inputis 17,000 calories. This is more than8-fold higher than the recommendedcalorie intake per person.
Source: Post Carbon Institute & USDA
Challenges – Ecological degradation
“Peak soil”o US soil depletion is 10-20x faster than natural
replenishment. (Pimentel 2006)o Globally, erosion destroys cropland the size of Indiana
annually.
Challenges – Ecological degradation
Loss of beneficial specieso Insecticides kill beneficial
species (including pollinators and pest predators) along with pest species.
o Colony collapse disorder has affected nearly 1/3 of all honeybees in the US. (Source: Natural Resources Defense Council)
o Globally, the use of “elite germplasm” and expansion of fields threaten the survival of heirloom and locally-adapted varieties.
Source: NY Times 2007
Challenges – Ecological degradation
Loss of beneficial specieso Soil biodiversity affects
infiltration and storage of water, resistance to erosion, nutrient cycling, soil fertility, carbon sequestration, and crop health.
o Soil organisms are affected by temperature, moisture, soil texture, salinity, pH, and biotic factors (such as interactions with plant roots).
o The effects of intensive agricultural practices on soil biodiversity are still largely unknown. Source: Matson et al. 1997
Phenomenon and direction of trend
Likelihood of future trends
Agriculture, forestry and ecosystems
Over most land areas, warmer and fewer cold days and nights, warmer and more frequent hot days and nights
Virtually certain
Increased yields in colder environments; decreased yields in warmer environments; increased insect outbreaks
Warm spells/heat waves. Frequency increases over most land areas
Very likely Reduced yields in warmer regions due to heat stress; increased danger of wildfire
Heavy precipitation events. Frequency increases over most areas
Very likely Damage to crops; soil erosion, inability to cultivate land due to waterlogging of soils
Area affected by drought increases Likely
Land degradation; lower yields/crop damage and failure; increased livestock deaths; increased risk of wildfire
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases Likely
Damage to crops; windthrow (uprooting) of trees; damage to coral reefs
Increased incidence of extreme high sea level (excludes tsunamis)
LikelySalinisation of irrigation water, estuaries and fresh- water systems
Source: IPCC 2007 Synthesis Report
Challenges – Climate Change
Land with Rain-fed Cultivation Potential (Pro ject ion fo r 2080)
Source: Fischer et al. 2002
Striving Towards Sustainability
Sustainable Food Systems
What three words would you use to describe what sustainable food systems look like?o Write these words on one half-sheet of paper.o Hand this in.
What additional words or phrases should we add to the sticky wall to complete the picture?
Sustainability Goals “To be sustainable, a farming system needs to be
sufficiently productive, robust (be able to continue to meet goals in the face of stresses and fluctuating conditions), use resources efficiently, and balance the four goals.”
1. Satisfy human food, feed, and fiber needs, and contribute to biofuel needs.
2. Enhance environmental quality and the resource base.
3. Sustain the economic viability of agriculture.
4. Enhance the quality of life for farmers, farm workers, and society as a whole.
The Way Forward1. Understanding systems and their dynamic
behaviors
2. Intervening in systems to affect change
3. Transitioning to sustainable food systems in the face of unprecedented challengeso Socioeconomic and political prioritieso Scientific prioritieso Educational priorities
Understanding Systems
Systems are comprised of stocks interconnected by flows and self-regulated by feedback loops.
Strengths of different loops often determine the dynamics of system behaviors.
A system is always more than the sum of its parts. Often the least obvious part is a crucial determinant of its behavior.
Vensim model of crop production
Source: Meadows 2008
Understanding Systems Why Systems Work So Well1. Stressing a system often causes it to
become more resilient (able to bounce back). This is due to feedback loops.
2. Most systems are self-organized (they adapt, learn, develop, and “complexify” through the use of simple rules). This is a source of heterogeneity and unpredictability.
3. Self-organizing systems generate hierarchies (aggregations of subsystems). These evolve from the bottom up and become a source of stability and resilience.
Source: Meadows 2008
Understanding Systems
Systems surprise us1. Everything we think we know is a model.2. Models usually have strong congruence with
the world.3. However, models always fall short in fully
representing the world.
o Bounded rationality: Our knowledge is always incomplete.
o “The bounded rationality of each actor in a system – determined by the information, incentives, disincentives, goals, stresses, and constraints impinging upon that actor – may or may not lead to decisions that further the welfare of the system as a whole. If they do not, putting new actors into the same system will not improve the system’s performance. What makes a difference is redesigning the system to improve the information, incentives, disincentives, goals, stresses, and constraints that have an effect on specific actors.” (Meadows, p. 110)
Intervening in Systems to Affect Change
The Top Twelve Most Effective Leverage Points:12. Constants: alter subsidies, taxes, standards11. Buffers: change size of stabilizing stocks relative to flows10. Physical structure: rebuild stocks and flows9. Delays: alter rates of flows and feedback loops8. Balancing feedback loops: match the strength of these
loops to the impact they are designed to correct7. Reinforcing feedback loops: reduce the gain of these loops
to slow growth in the system6. Information flows: add or restore missing info flows and
accountability5. Rules: alter incentives, punishments, constraints4. Self-organization: add, change, or evolve system structure
Source: Meadows 2008
Intervening in Systems to Affect Change
The Top Twelve Most Effective Leverage Points:3. Goals: change the purpose or function of a whole-system
goalo Who is wielding power for what purpose?o What should be the system’s most important goal?
2. Paradigms: alter the mindset out of which the system ariseso Point out the anomalies and failures of the old paradigm
and keep advocating for the new one.o Work with change agents and the open-minded, not
with reactionaries.1. Transcending paradigms: keep yourself unattached
o In light of bounded rationality, no paradigm truly reflects the entire spacious reality of the universe.
Source: Meadows 2008“Manifesto: The Mad Farmer Liberation Front” by Wendell Berry
Transitioning to Sustainable Food Systems
Socioeconomic and political priorities From consolidation & specialization to modularity &
diversificationo Consolidation – ADM, Cargill, ConAgra exert control “from seed to shelf”o Specialization – Growers under contract to produce one or two specieso Modularity – “Foodshed” concept envisions regional networks of
interdependent producers, companies, citizens, researchers…o Diversification – Improve resilience economically and ecologically
Reform agricultural policies o Inverted food pyramids – US
farm subsidies work at crosspurposes with US nutritionalrecommendations
o Sustainable food policies – build resilient food systemsthat promote human healthand climate mitigation
Transitioning to Sustainable Food Systems
Scientific and technological priorities Incremental approaches – practices and
technologies that address specific production and/or environmental concerns associated with industrial agricultureo Two-year crop rotations instead of continuous croppingo Precision agriculture using GPS navigationo New varieties produced via classical breeding
and/or genetic engineering o Reduced tillage or no-till practices that save
fuel and reduce erosiono Integrative pest management
These help, but even in aggregate, theydo not solve sustainability concerns.
Incremental Approach
Social Progres
s
Environmental
Stewardship
Economic Growth
Transitioning to Sustainable Food Systems
Scientific and technological priorities Transformative approach – relies on whole-system
redesign and synergies with natural systemso Couple mixed-crop and livestock systems (e.g. aquaponics)o Organic farming with polycultureso Development of perennial grainso Direct-marketing (e.g. CSAs, farm-to-cafeteria)o Urban organic agriculture
Move towards sustainability by integratingecological, socioeconomic, andprofitability objectives.
Hindered by existing market structures, agricultural policies, and prevailing paradigms.
Transformative ApproachScientific and technological priorities Agroecosystem paradigm
o Ecosystem is a “functional system of complementary relations between living organisms and their environment [that maintain] a steady yet dynamic equilibrium”.
o Agroecosystem is a “complex set of biological, physical, chemical, ecological, and cultural interactions determining the processes that permit us to achieve and sustain yields.”
Key emergent qualities (research priorities)1. Energy flow – need to maximize use of renewable sources2. Nutrient cycling – need to close nutrient loop (sewage recycling)3. Population regulation – need diverse structures and species
relationships that permit natural control and regulation mechanisms
4. Dynamic equilibrium – need sufficient structural and functional complexity in the system to enable resistance and resilience
Source: Stephen R Gliessman
Transformative ApproachScientific and technological priorities Back to the future
o “Traditional and indigenous agroecosystems are different from conventional systems in that they developed originally in times or places where inputs other than human labor or local resources were generally not available... Production takes place in ways that demonstrate people’s concerns about long-term sustainability of the system, rather than solely maximizing output and profit.”
o “Traditional agroecosystems… can serve as the starting point for the conversion to more sustainable agroecosystems.”
Building sustainable agroecosystemso Knowledge of place (local ecology and local limits)o Wisdom of past experience (successes and failures)o Knowledge of environmentally-sound management practiceso Redesigning the system to bring out ecological processes and
natural control mechanisms with human managementSource: Stephen R Gliessman
Transformative ApproachScientific and technological priorities Some implications
o Agroecoystems will likely have somewhat lower and more variable yields than industrial systems, but this will be offset by reduced reliance on external inputs, more reliance on natural control of pests, and reduced negative impacts off-farm.
o Agroecosystems will likely require more labor and this, in turn, will likely reverse the trend towards “get big or get out”.
o Agriculture is the result of a coevolution. Thus, innovations in sustainable agriculture co-require cultural transformations.
o The transition to sustainable food systems is inherently interdisciplinary, encompassing ecological, social, economic, and political, philosophical, and religious dimensions of life.
Source: Stephen R Gliessman
Transitioning to Sustainable Food Systems
Educational priorities Teach key concepts through societal challenges
o Societal challenges are too great for a “business as usual” approach
Link experiential learning to communal priorities and valueso Hone problem-solving, scientific reasoning, computation, teamwork,
and communication skills through community-oriented projects
Teach scientificallyo Mentor by modeling systems thinking and problem-solvingo Regularly use assessments to monitor learning gainso Employ pedagogies of engagement that reflect best research on
how people learn