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What do Beef Consumers Really Want?

Jayson L. LuskRegents Professor and Willard Sparks Endowed Chair

Oklahoma State Universityjayson.lusk@okstate.edu

www.jaysonlusk.com@JaysonLusk

When consumers think about meat production, do they think about

this . . .

or this . . .

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An Industry Under Attack

• As if drought, feed prices, disease weren’t enough . . .

• Consider the views of the “cultural elite” on – Environment

– Health

– Animal Welfare

– Food Safety

Environment

“a holocaust of a different kind”‐Mark Bittman, cookbook and NYT 

columnist, in a TED Talk, 2008

Environment

Meat has “more of an impact on the

environment than any other food we eat.”

-NPR Morning Edition, 2012

http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/06/27/155527365/visualizing-a-nation-of-meat-eaters

”If you concentrate the animals, you also 

concentrate their waste. . . It can pollute the water. It can also pollute the air. But the basic problem is just how much land and how many crops it takes to 

produce all the meat. And when you add it up, the total impact on the planet is quite huge. A third of all the crops that people grow all across the world go to feeding animals. . . . It's one cause of deforestation, 

global warming, water pollution, a lot of environmental problems.”

-Dan Charles, NPR, 2012

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Environment

“It's true that giving up that average 176 lb. of meat a year

is one of the greenest lifestyle changes you can make as an individual.”

-Bryan Walsh, TIME Magazine, Meat: Making Global Warming Worse,

2008

Health

“toxic food environment”

Health

“This study provides clear evidence that regular

consumption of red meat, especially processed meat, contributes substantially to

premature death”- Frank Hu, Professor of nutrition and epidemiology

at Harvard School of Public Health

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Health

“We can reduce saturated fats and reduce the risk of heart disease by 19 percent . . . While this is a symbolic gesture, it is asking people to think about the food choices they make.

Eating less meat can reverse some of our nation’s most common illnesses.”

- Jan Perry, Los Angeles City Councilwoman

Message Takes Hold

Message Takes Hold

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The Response

The Response

Animal Welfare

Join the Pamela Anderson pledge:I want to eat better, feel better, and stop supporting cruelty to chickens, pigs,

cows, fish, and other animals who are raised and killed for food. By signing my name, I pledge to explore veganism/vegetarianism for at least 30 days.

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In Sum

“THE industrial production of animal products is nasty business. From mad

cow, E. coli and salmonella to soil erosion, manure runoff and pink

slime, factory farming is the epitome of a broken food system.”

-James McWilliams, New York Times, 2012

Are you depressed yet?

First, some good news

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Dairy share Beef share Pork share Poultry Share Egg Share

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First, some good news

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Expenditures on Beef (2014 dollars) ‐ US Food at Home

First, some good news

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Steak Chicken Breast Hamburger

First, some good news

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First, some good news

How to respond?

• Meat production is bad – compared to what? Need to think on the margin

• Are things getting better or worse?

• Are you prepared to respond to these issues?

• How do you engage on these issues?

Meat is Big Business

• People spend more on meat than any other food category the problems will look large because

the industry is large

US produced 24.4 billion lbs of beef in 2014 (54 lbs per person)

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Evolution of the Industry

• Fewer, more productive cows

0.6 cows/person in 1975; Today, its only 0.3 (100% reduction!)

In 1975, 179 lbs/cow ; today, the figure is 288 lbs/cow. We’re getting 109 lbs more from each cow!

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cows per person

1000s of lbs of beef produced per  cow

Evolution of the Industry

• Consumers pay lower prices

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cents per dozen (eggs)

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cattle hogs eggs

Environmental Impacts

• Fewer, more efficient animals (at least per capita) means fewer greenhouse gasses, less land use, and possibly reduced environmental impacts

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Environmental Impacts

1977 2007 % changeAnimals      Supporting population (1000s)    9,106  6,243  ‐45.9%Stockers (1000s)     2,896  1,767  ‐63.9%Feedlot animals (1000s)    2,776  2,322  ‐19.6%Cull animals (1000s)    941  523  ‐79.9%Total animals slaughtered (1000s)   3,656  2,831  ‐29.1%Total population (1000s)    14,778  10,332  ‐43.0%Nutrition resources     Total energy requirement, MJ × 106 251,090  230,898  ‐8.7%Feedstuffs, kg × 106 72,883  59,320  ‐22.9%Land, ha (1000s)    9,116  6,106  ‐49.3%Water, L × 109 2,006  1,763  ‐13.8%Fossil fuel energy, BTU × 109 9,996  9,139  ‐9.4%Waste output     Manure, kg (millions)    50,636  41,076  ‐23.3%N excretion, kg (1000s)   500,162  438,858  ‐14.0%P excretion, kg (1000s)   48,055  43,088  ‐11.5%Greenhouse gas emissions    CH4, kg (1000s)    680,995  553,978  ‐22.9%N2O,5 kg (1000s)    9,157  8,153  ‐12.3%C footprint,6 kg of CO2 (millions) 21,445  17,945  ‐19.5%

To produce 1 billion kg beef . . .

Source: Capper, Journal of Animal Science, 2011

Environmental Impacts

• Meat and climate change– Dr. Henning Steinfeld, UN FAO: the meat industry is

“one of the most significant contributors to today’s most serious environmental problems” and that “urgent action is required to remedy the situation.”

– livestock are responsible for 18 percent of greenhouse gas emissions

• BUT . . .– Frank Mitloehner has shown the FAO report

overestimates livestock impacts (a fact they admit)

– EPA estimated all agriculture only responsible for 8% of emissions (livestock is 3%)

Caloric Efficiency

• A lot of focus energy (or corn) used to product a pound of beef− “respected environmental scientists have

pointed out the tremendous inefficiencies and resulting costs to our planet of animal agriculture. For example, animals consume more protein than they produce. For every kilogram (2.2 pounds) of animal protein produced, animals consume an average of almost 6 kilograms . . . of plant protein from grains and forage.”(Francione 2004)

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Caloric Efficiency

− “Although crops used for animal feed ultimately produce human food in the form of meat and dairy products, they do so with a substantial loss of caloric efficiency. If current crop production used for animal feed and other nonfood uses (including biofuels) were targeted for direct consumption, ~70% more calories would become available, potentially providing enough calories to meet the basic needs of an additional 4 billion people”West et al.,

Science 2014)

− Do we consistently apply this to other industries? Should we?

An Analogy

• A food producing machine

An Analogy

• A food producing machine

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Caloric Efficiency

• Inaccurate assumptions− people can eat grass

− people will gladly eat efficiently produced grains (corn and soy) directly

− there are tasty-edible crops that can be widely grown instead of corn and soy which can produce human calories as efficiently as corn and soy

Caloric Efficiency

• It is improper to only look at amount of energy (or crops) expended to get beef, pork, or poultry – We also have to look at what we get in return

– Most people really like the taste of meat (and won’t eat grass or forage)

• Almost no one looks at their iPad and asks, "how much more energy went into producing this than my old Apple II.”– The iPad is so much better than the Apple II.

– We'd be willing to accept more energy use to have a better computer

– Likewise a nice T-bone is so much better than a head of broccoli. I'm willing to accept more energy use to have a T-bone than a head of broccoli

Caloric Efficiency

• Let’s compare across foods

Costs 0.4¢ to produce 1 kcal energyCosts 6.9¢ to produce 1 gram protein

Costs 0.1¢ to produce 1 kcal energyCosts 1.7¢ to produce 1 gram protein

Costs 4.24 times more to produce 1 kcal energy from lettuce than beefCosts 3.95 times more to produce 1 gram protein from lettuce than beef

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Environmental Impacts

“Let us also not gloss over what is beef's most obvious benefit: Livestock take inedible grasses and untasty grains and convert them into a protein-packed food most humans love to eat. We may be able to reduce our impact on the environment by eating less meat, but we can also do the same by using science to make livestock more productive and environmentally friendly.”

Health and Meat

• Red meat eating is correlated with some bad health outcomes− Correlation ≠ causation

− Heavier meat eaters tend to− be men, less educated, less physically active,

heavier smokers, heavier beer drinkers, and eat fewer fruits and veggies

− “Except for diabetes, [cardio vascular disease] risk factors have declined considerably over the past 40 years in all [body mass index] groups.” - Gregg et al. JAMA, 2005

Health and Meat

Scien fic Certainty ≠ Size of Risk 

Ed Yong, The Atlantic:

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Health and Meat

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Per‐Cap

ita Beef Consumption (lbs/person)

Average

 Body Weight 40

‐49 year olds (lbs)

Body Weight

Beef Consumption

What to Do?

Source: OSU Food Demand Survey (FooDS)

What consumers know

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What about hormone use?− Estrogen content of different foods

Implanted = 10 ngNon‐implanted = 7 ng

Source: Stewart.  “Implanting Beef Cattle.” University of Georgia Cooperative Extension .  Bulletin 1302, Feb. 2010. 

908,000 ng10,896 ng ??

What consumers know

What consumers know

What consumers knowPrime Choice Select

Fat Content% indicated grade is leanest 57.1% 19.3%   23.6%% giving with correct ranking 14.4%

Juiciness% indicated grade is juiciest 55.6%   24.6%   19.8%  % giving with correct ranking 32.6%

Source: OSU Food Demand Survey (FooDS), Journal of Animal Science

Prime Choice SelectQuality Grade Test% indicated picture is Prime 22.5% 24.0%        53.5%        % indicated picture is Choice 23.0% 54.6%  22.4%      % indicated picture is Select 54.4%  21.4%     24.2%% giving with correct ranking 14.5%  

Price Test% indicated picture is $4/lb 54.8% 9.9%   35.3%  % indicated picture is $8/lb 16.0%  68.8%  15.2%  % indicated picture is $12/lb 29.2%  21.3%  49.5% % giving with correct ranking 24.4% 

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What Consumers Want

What Consumers Are Willing to Trade

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Worse Tasting                                                 Better TastingFood                                                                  Food        

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Source: OSU Food Demand Survey (FooDS), November 2015

Will people pay what they say?

• Pay attention to what people do, not what they say

• Avoid unfunded mandates

MilkBacon

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Customers not Enemies

• Not helpful to bemoan “lack of knowledge” or “connection to agriculture”

• Sometimes you have to change because that’s what your customer wants

• The good news is that people want to know more about how food is produced− An opportunity!

Understand the Consumer

• Easy to demonize people you don’t know

• Risks seem greater when you can’t see the benefits

• Risks perceived as “uncontrollable” are more threatening

• Science and statistics often aren’t as persuasive as stories

So . . .

• Rethink your job duties

• Get in the game – tell your story

• Defend without being defensive

• Create shared values

• Talk about tangible benefits of technology to you

• Make tradeoffs salient and available higher prices, more hunger, more imports vs. less technology

advocate policies that expand the size of the pie

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How?

• Adopt a blogger

• Give tours to schools and media

• Social media

• Write an editorial

• Visit a college or university Example food classes at Harvard in 2013

Food writing (JOUR S-170) Gender, Food and Culture in American History Freshman Seminar 25k – You Are What you Eat History and Politics of the American Obesity Epidemic Food Law and Policy From Farm to Fork: Why What You Eat Matters

It works

• NYT Food for Tomorrow conference in Nov 2014• Bittman started by saying: “There is a war here!” . . . the

current food system “pollutes, sickens, exploits, and robs.”

• But USFRA hosted a session where

• Illinois hog farmer Julie Maschhoff said “I grew up on a corporate farm, and my grandfather had a corporate farm before it was bad.” She talked about her farm, biotechnology, and foodie friends

• Nebraska cattle producer Joan Ruskamp said, "Please let us be involved in the conversation about food!" She added, "I don't want it to be a war."

• By the end, Bittman’s tone change. He said, “We’ve learned that everyone wants to be sustainable . . . We all want the same thing” and "We have much more in common than not."

My take

• Need an optimistic, forward looking vision for the future of food

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Contactjayson.lusk@okstate.edu

405-744-7465www.jaysonlusk.com

@JaysonLusk