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What Constitutes a Democracy: A Comparative Analysis

Andrei Melville, Yuri Polunin, Mikhail Ilyin, Mikhail Mironyuk, Elena Meleshkina, Ivan Timofeev

Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO-University), Institute for Public Programming, “Expert”

magazine

Please do not quote without permission of the authors

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DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS & EVALUATION OF POLITICAL SYSTEMS

AND REGIMES

• Ted Robert Gurr et al.: POLITY II, POLITY III, POLITY IV (Indicators of Democracy and Autocracy)

• Tatu Vanhanen: Index of Democratization (Competition & Participation)• Freedom House: Political Rights & Civil Liberties• Bertelsmann Stiftung & BTI Board Bertelsmann: Transformation Index• Transparency International: Corruption Perception Index, Global

Corruption Barometer• A.T. Kearney & Foreign Policy Magazine: Globalization Index • The Fund for Peace & Foreign Policy Magazine: Failed States Index• Journalists without Borders: Press Freedom Index• Cato Institute: Economic Freedom of the World• UNDP: Human Development Report• World Economic Forum: Global Competitiveness Report• World Bank research projects• etc.

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POLITICAL ATLAS OF THE WORLD

Project of MGIMO-University and “Expert” magazine

Director of the project - Andrei Melville

Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) - Yuri Polunin

Consultants - Mikhail Ilyin, Elena Meleshkina, Tatyana Alexeeva, Victor Sergeev, Oxana Kharitonova

Deputy Director - Mikhail Mironyuk

Deputy Co-Director (mathematics and statistics) – Ivan Timofeev

50 country experts, assistants, editors, etc.

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STRUCTURE OF THE PROJECT

3 tracks:

(1) Encyclopedia of Political Systems of the World

(2) Multi-dimensional Indices and Ratings of 192 (+) countries (3) Multi-dimensional classification of 192 (+) countries and analytical reports

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ASSUMPTIONS

• Multi-dimensional comparative analysis and evaluation – vs. – one-dimensional

• Complex variables • Statistical databases (UN, UNESCO, World

Bank, WTO, International Health Organization, SIPRI, Inter-Parliamentary Union, national statistics, national constitutions and laws, etc.)

• Quantification of qualitative information• Statistical analysis (regression, correlation,

factorial, discriminant, etc. types of analysis)

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5 INDICES

• Index of state consistency

• Index of international influence

• Index of national threats

• Index of institutional foundations of democracy

• Quality of life index

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SOURCES OF DATA

• UN, UNDP, UNESCO, FAO, WHO, UNAIDS• World Bank (World Development Indicators)• IMF• WTO• WIPO• SIPRI• Inter-Parliamentary Union• National Constitutions and Laws• Heidelberg Institute for International Conflict Research• Center for Systemic Peace• Federation of American Scientists• Political Handbook of the World (Congressional Quarterly

Press) • Encyclopaedia Britannica• National statistics, etc.

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SPSS data base(for multi-dimensional indices and ratings)

192 countries (+)

70 variables

13,400 figures

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INDEX OF STATE CONSISTENCY

• Duration of sovereign stateness• Foreign aid, % of GNI• Indebtedness• Foreign military presence/deployment in the

country• Casualties of internal conflicts• Regions involved in internal conflicts• Intensity of internal conflicts• Applications for patents by residents – vs.

applications by non-residents• Ethnic composition (share of ethnic majority)• Exchange rate regimes

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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE

• Share of world GDP• Share of world goods and services exports• Contribution to the UN regular budget• IMF member’s voting power• Membership in the Paris club (official

creditors)• Permanent membership in the UN Security

Council• Share of world population• Nobel prize winners

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INDEX OF INTERNATIONAL INFLUENCE (cont.)

• Military expenditure (in constant US dollars)

• Armed forces personnel• Nuclear weapons• Advanced military systems• Military deployments abroad

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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS

• Threats of external aggression • Terrorist threats (from abroad or within)• Territorial disputes• Separatist and/or antigovernment activities• Nonviolent secessionist movements• Military governments or attempts of military coups

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INDEX OF NATIONAL THREATS (cont.)

• Undiversified exports (one or two primary export commodities)

• Constant trade deficit• Dependence on fuel imports• Probability of natural disasters• Water shortage• Undernourishment and famine• Depopulation• Excessive migration• HIV/AIDS epidemic

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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY

• Parliamentary elections competition• Head of the executive elections competition• Duration of an uninterrupted minimal

competition tradition (since 1945)• Electoral inclusiveness (share of registered

voters to total population)• Share of women in parliament (lower

chamber)

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INDEX OF INSTITUTIONAL FOUNDATIONS OF DEMOCRACY (cont.)

• Performance of democratic institutions- no military coups or unconstitutional regime changes

- not more than two terms held by the head of state/executive (former and acting)

- no referendum to extend term for the head of state/executive- competitive elections without interruption- influence of parliament on the appointment of the government

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QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX

• Life expectancy at birth• Death rate (combined)• Infant mortality• GDP per capita• Combined gross enrolment ratio for

primary, secondary and tertiary schools• Public health expenditure per capita

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5 indices:an experiment with discriminant analysis

• Samples of countries for discriminant analysis

• Countries’ rankings

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Index of state consistencyCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Sufficient state consistency: Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, Finland, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA

• Insufficient state consistency:Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, Haiti, Iraq, Kyrgyzstan, Mauritania, Moldova, Nepal, Rwanda, Serbia and Montenegro (prior to dissolution), Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan

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Index of state consistency (0 - 10): examplesCountry Group Index Rank

USA Sufficient state consistency 10 1

Japan Sufficient state consistency 9,34 2

Germany Sufficient state consistency 8,93 4

Korea (South) Sufficient state consistency 8,53 8

China Sufficient state consistency 8,24 12

Argentina Sufficient state consistency 8,07 17

Russia Sufficient state consistency 7,5 27

South Africa Sufficient state consistency 7,35 30

Saudi Arabia Sufficient state consistency 6,99 41

Iran Sufficient state consistency 6,97 43

Hungary Sufficient state consistency 6,88 45

Indonesia Sufficient state consistency 5,84 67

India Sufficient state consistency 5,42 81

Korea (North) Insufficient state consistency 5,01 98

Ukraine Insufficient state consistency 4,35 113

Ethiopia Insufficient state consistency 2,66 154

Central African Republic Insufficient state consistency 0,81 188

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Index of international influenceCountries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high influence

Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, Turkey, UK

• Relatively low influence

Afghanistan, Bolivia, Botswana, Congo, Estonia, Georgia, Iceland, Kyrgyzstan, Laos, Liberia, Malawi, Mongolia, Namibia, Paraguay, Rwanda, Slovenia, Somalia, Uruguay, the Zambia

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Index of international influence (0 - 10): examples

Country Group Index Rank

USA Relatively high influence 10,00 1

China Relatively high influence 3,93 2

Japan Relatively high influence 3,25 3

Germany Relatively high influence 3,24 4

Russia Relatively high influence 2,60 7

India Relatively high influence 2,28 8

Saudi Arabia Relatively high influence 1,69 10

Korea (North) Relatively high influence 1,25 12

Korea (South) Relatively high influence 1,02 16

Iran Relatively low influence 0,83 20

Indonesia Relatively low influence 0,81 22

Ukraine Relatively low influence 0,59 29

Argentina Relatively low influence 0,56 31

South Africa Relatively low influence 0,49 34

Hungary Relatively low influence 0,29 53

Ethiopia Relatively low influence 0,22 62

Central African Republic Relatively low influence 0,02 160

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Index of national threats Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high level of threats

Afghanistan, Angola, Bangladesh, Burkina-Faso, Cambodia, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Georgia, India, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Liberia, Myanmar, Niger, Philippines, Somalia, Tajikistan, the Zambia.

• Relatively low level of threats

Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, Singapore, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, the United Arab Emirates, Uruguay.

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Index of national threats (0 - 10): examplesCountry Group Index Rank

Ethiopia Relatively high threats 10,00 1

Central African Republic Relatively high threats 7,57 10

India Relatively high threats 5,99 44

Indonesia Relatively high threats 5,99 45

Iran Relatively high threats 5,34 57

Korea (North) Relatively high threats 4,89 68

China Relatively high threats 4,48 78

Russia Relatively high threats 4,34 81

Korea (South) Relatively high threats 4,28 82

Japan Relatively low threats 4,03 87

Saudi Arabia Relatively low threats 3,63 101

USA Relatively low threats 3,06 118

South Africa Relatively low threats 2,37 136

Ukraine Relatively low threats 2,27 141

Argentina Relatively low threats 2,07 146

Hungary Relatively low threats 1,02 172

Germany Relatively low threats 0,77 181

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Index of institutional foundations of democracy Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Sufficient institutional foundationsAustralia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, Costa-Rica, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Switzerland, UK, USA.

• Insufficient institutional foundations

Angola, Bahrain, Belarus, Cameroon, China, Congo, Cuba, Equatorial Guinea, Eritrea, Haiti, Iran, Ivory Coast, Jordan, Korea (North), Laos, Libya, Myanmar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe.

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Index of institutional foundations of democracy (0-10): examples

Country Group Index Rank

Austria Sufficient institutional foundations 8,09 9

India Sufficient institutional foundations 7,35 16

USA Sufficient institutional foundations 7,3 18

Hungary Sufficient institutional foundations 6,94 28

Argentina Sufficient institutional foundations 6,91 29

Korea (South) Sufficient institutional foundations 6,62 34

Ukraine Sufficient institutional foundations 6,46 42

Japan Sufficient institutional foundations 6,46 43

Indonesia Sufficient institutional foundations 5,44 86

Russia Sufficient institutional foundations 5,24 93

South Africa Sufficient institutional foundations 5,23 94

Ethiopia Insufficient institutional foundations 4,03 124

Central African Republic Insufficient institutional foundations 3,2 139

Iran Insufficient institutional foundations 1,76 161

China Insufficient institutional foundations 0,69 178

Korea (North) Insufficient institutional foundations 0,68 179

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Quality of life index Countries in the sample for discriminant analysis

• Relatively high quality of life

Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, UK, USA.

• Relatively low quality of life

Angola, Benin, Burkina-Faso, Burundi, the Central African Republic, Chad, Dominican Republic, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, Ivory Coast, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Tanzania, the Zambia, Zimbabwe.

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Quality of life index (0 - 10): examples

Country Group Index Rank

USA Relatively high quality 6,53 5

Japan Relatively high quality 6,05 14

Germany Relatively high quality 5,55 22

Korea (South) Relatively high quality 4,66 33

Hungary Relatively high quality 3,80 43

Argentina Relatively high quality 3,58 46

Saudi Arabia Relatively low quality 3,21 56

Russia Relatively low quality 2,68 73

Iran Relatively low quality 2,49 85

China Relatively low quality 2,35 95

Ukraine Relatively low quality 2,20 101

South Africa Relatively low quality 2,00 111

Indonesia Relatively low quality 1,86 116

India Relatively low quality 1,60 125

Korea (North) Relatively low quality 1,46 131

Ethiopia Relatively low quality 0,33 186

Central African Republic Relatively low quality 0,00 192

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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES

• General trends• Deviations• Anomalies

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CORRELATIONS BETWEEN INDICES

Index of state

consistency

Index of national threats

Index of institutional

foundations of democracy

Quality of life index

Index of internatio

nal influence

Index of stateconsistency

1,000 -0,627 0,465 0,761 0,581

Index of national threats

-0,627 1,000 -0,534 -0,813 -0,166

Index of institutional

foundations of democracy

0,465 -0,534 1,000 0,570 0,156

Quality of life index

0,761 -0,813 0,570 1,000 0,321

Influence and involvement

index0,581 -0,166 0,156 0,321 1,000

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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES

Index of Institutional

foundations of democracy Polity IV

ID (Vanhanen)

Political rights (FH)

Civil liberties

(FH)

Index of Institutional foundations of democracy

1,000 0,844 0,839 -0,817 -0,810

Polity IV 0,844 1,000 0,813 -0,903 -0,885

ID (Vanhanen) 0,839 0,813 1,000 -0,803 -0,801

Political rights (FH) -0,817 -0,903 -0,803 1,000 0,951

Civil liberties (FH) -0,810 -0,885 -0,801 0,951 1,000

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CORRELATIONS WITH OTHER INDICES (cont.)

HDI

Quality of life index 0,931

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

1. Considerable level of state consistency

• Russia is in # 27 rank of the State consistency index after China (12), Italy (18), Belgium (25).

• Leaders are USA (1), Japan (2), Germany (4), France (7).

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

2. Profound international influence

• Russia is # 7 (after USA, China, Japan, Germany, France and UK and ahead of India, Italy, Canada, Brazil).

• 11 leaders of the rating are G8 + China and India

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

3. Moderate national threats

• Russia is in # 81 rank of the national threats index together with Israel and South Korea.

• Russia faces a variety of national threats (terrorism, territorial disputes, undiversified exports, depopulation, HIV/AIDS epidemic, etc.)

• Russia is surrounded by a wide zone of countries with grave national threats (Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq, North Korea, Azerbaijan, India, etc.)

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

4. Fairly average institutional foundations of democracy

• Russia is # 93 (lower than Peru but higher than South Africa)

• Leaders of the rating are Switzerland, Canada, Netherlands, Denmark and Norway; USA are # 18.

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RUSSIA AND THE WORLD

5. Average quality of life

• Russia is # 73 (Bulgaria, Brazil, Mexico, etc.)• Leaders of the rating are Luxembourg, Ireland,

Norway, USA, Iceland, Australia, etc.)

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An experiment with factor analysis

• Searching for the principle components

• Presentation of countries in the components’ space

• Analysis of structures, composed by countries in the components’ space

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Principle components and their explanatory potential

Component Cumulative %

1 55,366

2 81,752

3 93,039

4 100,000

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5 indices in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)

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Countries in the components’ space (components 1 and 2)