what causes the disputes between japan and south korea? kan kimura professor, graduate school of...
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Deadlocked Japan-ROK Relations After Lee Myung-bak’s visit to Takeshima/Dokdo in Aug. 2012, diplomatic cooperation between the two countries became deadlocked. Public opinion in each country also maintains a very strong stance against the other. There are no active movements in either country to improve relations. In Japan, in particular, anti-Korean sentiment is clearly growing.TRANSCRIPT
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What causes the disputes between Japan and South Korea?
Kan KimuraProfessor, Graduate School of
International Cooperation Studies
Kobe University
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Outline• Introduction to today’s situation• The reason for failed cooperation
between Japan and South Korea• The reason for the perception gap
between the two countries• How to change this situation
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Deadlocked Japan-ROK Relations
• After Lee Myung-bak’s visit to Takeshima/Dokdo in Aug. 2012, diplomatic cooperation between the two countries became deadlocked.
• Public opinion in each country also maintains a very strong stance against the other.
• There are no active movements in either country to improve relations.
• In Japan, in particular, anti-Korean sentiment is clearly growing.
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Long- and short-term trends • Complicated historical and territorial
issues between the two countries as constants (a)
• Frequency of the disputes as the dependent variable (y)
• Importance of the counterpart as the independent variable (x)
• Hypothesis: f(x-a)=y and if x-a<0, we will see a dramatic increase in the disputes
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Frequency of keywords accompanying the term “Japan” in Chosun-ilbo articles
교과서 위안부 정신대 야스쿠니 /야스꾸니 신사 + 참배 독도 독립운동 친일파 배상
Keyword Textbook Comfort woman
Volunteer labor corps Yasukuni Shinto shrine
+ WorshipDokdo/
TakeshimaIndepedence
movement Collaborator Compensation
教科書 慰安婦 挺身隊 靖国 神社 + 参拝 独島 独立運動 親日派 賠償
1945-49 0 0 0.0016 0 0 0.0243 0.0089 0.0251 0.038
1950-54 0 0 0 0 0 0.0844 0.0075 0.0021 0.0139
1955-59 0.0006 0 0 0 0 0.0135 0.0188 0.0009 0.0074
1960-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.0112 0.013 0.0004 0.0049
1965-69 0.0006 0 0 0 0 0.0198 0.0207 0.0008 0.0023
1970-74 0.0005 0 0 0.0011 0.0012 0.005 0.0077 0 0.0014
1975-79 0.0004 0.0002 0 0.0002 0.0004 0.0185 0.009 0.0002 0.0011
1980-84 0.0555 0 0.001 0.0002 0.0019 0.0095 0.0094 0 0.0008
1985-89 0.0152 0 0.0008 0.0004 0.0025 0.0084 0.0154 0.0004 0.0008
1990-94 0.0068 0.098 0.1757 0.0034 0.018 0.0327 0.0484 0.0056 0.0079
1995-99 0.0084 0.0364 0.0169 0.0019 0.0064 0.0542 0.0618 0.0016 0.0111
2000-04 0.0233 0.0332 0.0058 0.0125 0.029 0.0457 0.0371 0.0034 0.0029
2005-09 0.0114 0.0242 0.0034 0.0265 0.0193 0.1594 0.0406 0.0076 0.0025
2000-14 0.0148 0.0786 0.0051 0.0221 0.0176 0.1031 0.0182 0.003 0.0055
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Keyword197
8198
3199
0199
3199
6200
0200
4First Japan-Korea Treaty (1904) A B B B B A A
Second Japan-Korea Treaty (1905) B A A A B AThird Japan-Korean Treaty (1907) B B
Hague Secret Emissary Affair B B B B B AResidents-General B A A A A A A
An Jung-Geun AJapan-Korea Annexation Treaty A A A A A A A
Governor-General of Korea A A A A A AColonial Era Land Reforms B B B B B A
March 1st Movement B B A A B A AKōminka Movement B B B B A
Sōshi-Kaimei B B B B ARighteous Armies Protests B B B A AGreat Kantō Earthquake A
Comfort Women B AForced Labor A
A: Boldface font B: Normal font
Keywords regarding Korea-Japan relations in Japanese textbooks (Survey of Senior High School textbooks published by Tokyo Shoseki)
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Amount of trade with South Korea
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Share in Japanese trade
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Shares in Chinese Trade
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Why does Japan’s “value-oriented diplomacy” approach not work today?
• Japan clearly regarded China as the most important challenger to this approach.
• Japan expects this approach to be welcomed in countries around China as a starting point for relations with Japan.
→ This means that today’s Japan regards China as a “natural” hypothetical enemy and expects other nations to share this understanding.
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However…• South Koreans today regard China as
one of their two most important partners, along with the United States.
• Improvement of relations with China is one of the most important diplomatic policies of the Park Geun-hye government.
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Reasons for the perception gap
1) Different levels of economic dependency on China
2) “Actual” territorial disputes3) Different messages from the
United States on US-China rivalry
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Trade with China/GDP
Trade with Korea/GDP
Trade with Japan/GDP
Year
China - 2.9 3.3 2013
Korea 17.5 - 7.2 2013
Japan 6.3 1.8 - 2013
M. of US$ % %
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TRADE DEPENDECY
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Number Tons AircraftCarrier Destroyer Frigat
e Submarine (with Aegis system)
(Nuclear Submarine)
ROK 190 19.2 0 12(3) 9 12China 1090 135.2 1 26 52 56(8)Japan 143 45.1 0 42(6) 6 16
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Economic Dependency on China
Expected US military role
Result Major threat to security
Effect on relations with China
Plus Minus
Sector Business Security
Japan Not Active Active Hard-line Policy China → Minus
South Korea Very Active Not Active Soft-line Policy DPRK → Plus
Conservatives in each nation have different ideas about China
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What can we do about this situation?
• We need to re-establish discourse about why Japan-ROK relations are important for each country.
• The discourse has to be understood by normal people.
• On historical/territorial issues, we need more open academic research in front of the international community.
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References• Kan Kimura. “Discovery of Disputes: Collective Memories on
Textbooks and Japanese–South Korean Relations.” Journal of Korean Studies 17, No. 1, Spring 2012.
• Kan Kimura. “Why Are the Issues of ‘Historical Perceptions’ between Japan and South Korea Persisting?” Journal of International Cooperation Studies 19, No. 1, July 2011.
• Kan Kimura. Koji Kagotani, and Jeff Weber. “Democracy and Diversionary Incentives in Japan-South Korean Disputes.” International Relations of Pacific-Asia 13, No. 3, September 2013.
• 木村幹『日韓歴史認識問題とは何か』 ミネルヴァ書房、 2014 年• 木村幹「韓国は何故中国に傾斜するか」、『アジア時報』 2013 年
6 月• 木村幹「新政権下の日韓関係:日韓両国は何故対立するか」、 『問題と研究』 2013 年 10 ・ 11 ・ 12 月号、 2013 年 12 月