what are 21st century problems ?
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What are 21st Century Problems ?. Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generations can no longer be taken for granted. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
What are 21st Century Problems?
First, we’ll provide some context. . .
Human activity is putting such a strain on the natural functions of Earth that the ability of the planet’s ecosystems to sustain future generationscan no longer be taken for granted.
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Board
Other scientific assessments have come to the same conclusion. . .
Certain current trends of population and habitation, wealth and consumption, technology and work, connectedness and diversity, and environmental change are likely to persist well into the coming century. . . . If they do persist, many human needs will not be met, life support systems will be dangerously degraded, and the numbers of hungry and poor will increase.
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
What are some of these 21st century problems?
• Global climate change• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains, • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger, • Lack of access to primary education, • Gaps in gender equality, • Childhood mortality• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria
21st century problems have three fundamental properties in common
(1) Complexity(2) Panarchy(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
We’ll deal with complexity first
We’ll deal with complexity first
Complex is not another word for complicated!
Complex is not another word for complicated !Complicated systems: simple systems with many parts
(1) Interactions among parts are well-defined, (2) Interactions among parts are predictable, (3) The system is well defined and predictable.
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complex systems have
(1) Changing connections among parts (2) Changing types of interactions(3) Changing intensity of interactions(4) Non-linear interactions(5) Feedback loops
Complex is not another word for complicated !Complex systems exhibit emergent behavior: that is behavior that can’t be predicted by studying the parts
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complicated problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the brakes fully engage 0.5 seconds after the signal to stop is given.
Complex is not another word for complicated !
Complex problem: On a flat stretch of pavement with a 60 degree curve, what is the stopping distance of a car traveling 60 miles per hour given a particular coefficient of friction between the tires and the road? Assume the driver has consumed three beers and had a fight with his girl friend 2 hours ago.
21st Century Problems Have Three Properties
(1) Complexity(2)Panarchy(3) Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
Definition: Panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.
What???
Definition: Panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.
Let’s break this down. . . you are familiar with hierarchical systems
Unites StatesNew York State
Tompkins CountyIthaca
And another example of a hierarchical system
Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true
panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.
Now we have to add in the other elements that take a hierarchy and make it a true
panarchy
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.
This is more easily explained with an example
Let’s build a simple panarchy to understand global CO2 emissions and climate change
You exhibit certain behaviors that effect your personal CO2 emissions
• You do or don’t turn off your computer when you leave your room
• You do or don’t recycle your soda cans
• You do or don’t drive from the circles to campus
• You do or don’t wear certain brands of clothes
• You do or don’t fly in an airplane to get home at breaks
However, you don’t live isolated from other people
You
Your barberYour sibling
Your friend
And your behaviors influence each other
You
Your barberYour sibling
Your friend
Together, these individual behaviors add up to a group behavior
Person
Person Person
Person
Different groups develop different norms of behavior
Person
Person Person
Person
Person
Person Person
Person
Group #1
Group #2
Different groups develop different norms of behavior
Person
Person Person
Person
Person
Person Person
Person
For example, the group of students at Ithaca College behave differently from the group of professors at Ithaca College
Group #2
Group #1
Your group interacts with other groups that have different group behaviors
Person
Person Person
Person
Person
Person Person
Person
Person
Person Person
Person
I.C. Students
I.C. Professors
Local Merchants
And these groups create larger groups that interact
For example, the U.S., India, and Germany
The CO2 emissions of these groups add up to total emissions for humanity
CO2 CO2
CO2
Which effects total global atmospheric CO2
And…Global Atmospheric CO2
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
And…Global Atmospheric CO2
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
effects
Weather
And…Global Atmospheric CO2
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
effects
Weathereffects
Food Availability
And…Global Atmospheric CO2
Heat Content of Atmosphere
effects
effects
Weathereffects
Food Availabilityeffects
Food Prices
And we’ve come back full circle . . .
food prices effect –
national, regional, state, and individual behavior
Definition: PanarchyA Hierarchy can be. . .
• Simple [few levels with straightforward connections ]• Complicated [lots of levels with straightforward connections]• Complex [levels interrelated by changing connections, feedback loops, etc]
and still not be a Panarchy!
An evolving hierarchical system with elements that interrelate at several levels.
In a Panarchy, not only are the interactions among levels changing [leading to complexity], but the levels themselves are changing through time!
Definition: Panarchy
21st Century Problems Have Three Properties
(1) Complexity(2) Panarchy(3)Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
System components are related in such a way that the system as a whole has the ability to adjust or even fundamentally alter the connections and interactions among components, and even the components themselves, based on experience with, pressure from, or even sometimes anticipation of, external forces.
Complex Adaptive Systems – CAS
• lakes• forests• economy of U.S.A.• human body• earth’s atmosphere• street gangs• NATO
So what do we do?
So what do we do?
Train 21st century problem-solvers!
Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?• Strong understanding of sustainability as a content area
• Strong systems thinking skills
• The ability to comfortably shift among disciplinary, multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary perspectives
• Developing skills and willingness to communicate across, not only the traditional STEM disciplines, but also expand to include essentially all areas of human thought and endeavor
Who are 21st Century Problem Solvers?• Developing the art of questioning
• An acute awareness of values-based learning
• Ability to connect result with real world consequences
• Ability to devise, understand, and choose among several multi-faceted solutions
Your Turn
Your Turn
• Global climate change• Long-lived organic toxins in our food chains • Pernicious extreme poverty and hunger• Lack of access to primary education• Gaps in gender equality• Childhood mortality• Deadly diseases such as HIV/AIDS and malaria
Explain why these are 21st century problems.