Meeting at Symbister Hall

Andrea Manson - TreasurerJames Titcomb – Vice Chair

Duncan Simpson – Membership Secretary21st December 2015

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Who Is Wir Shetland?

● A group of Shetland residents and “expats” committed to improving Shetland’s future.

● PURPOSE/MISSION: To protect the long term interests of Shetlanders by achieving self-governing autonomy, in line with the democratic wishes of Shetland residents.

● Launched 14th October, Currently 357 members.

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Who Is Wir Shetland

John Tulloch - Chair

James Titcomb - Vice Chair

Kathy Greaves - Secretary

Andrea Manson – Treasurer

Duncan Simpson – Membership Secretary

Committee members – Ali Inkster, Steven Jarmson

A diverse range of backgrounds with a single unifying policy of achieving the best possible constitutional position for Shetland.

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What is Wir Shetland?

● Multi-party campaign group ● Members of all parties welcome to join● Aim – achieve British Overseas Territory, or similar, status for Shetland

● Approach – initially by engaging with parties and candidates for parliamentary and council seats to establish what progress, if any, can be made that way.

● Registering as a party and fielding our own candidates will be considered if necessary.

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Layers of Government

● European Union (Brussels)● UK Government (Westminster)● Scottish Government (Hollyrood)● Shetlands Island Council (Lerwick)● Whalsay Comunity Council (Symbister)

● How effective is this for Whalsay?

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Fishing grounds lost to the EU

1970 – First rules drawn up “a few” hours before official reception of applications to join received from Britain, Ireland, Denmark and Norway.

Originally UK refused, but gave in at the end of 1971 and signed 22nd Jan 1972. Giving away 4/5

th

of all fish in western Europe1

Equal access to all EU waters for EU vessels

1: Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Fisheries_Policy

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Shetlands Exclusive Economic Zone

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Uk Government

● Economy, Finance, Defense, Foreign Affairs, etc.

● Remote, out of touch, English law● Impacts: taxation, duty, EU membership, sovereignty issues eg oil and gas, territorial waters, Crown Estates.

● Hundreds of billions to UK Treasury over 40 years

● Meanwhile, SIC closing country schools

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Scottish Government

● Provides government funding to Scottish Councils● 2008 agreement – COSLA to distribute funding equitably by “formula”

● 2014/15 Shetland education funding● SIC budgeted expenditure: £48.5M

● Funding: £29M

● Shortfall: £19.5M

● SIC forced to cut education spending 20 percent● Shortfall: still £10M+, funded from SIC oil reserves

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Scottish Government

● Cumulative funding shortfall 2008-15 (7yr)● Minimum 7x10M = £70M

● Maximum 7x10M = £137M

● Median = £104M since 2008

● This shortfall has to be recovered either from Wir reserves or more cuts.

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Shetland Islands Council

● “Government funding reducing, must cut services.”

● “School rolls falling, so close schools to save cost.”

● SIC joined Our Islands, Our Future (2013)● OIOF – “Please Sir, can we have some more?”● Scottish Government - “Consultation - of ALL the islands, that’s fair.”

● Actually, that’s “kicking the can down the road”

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Shetland Economy (SIC 2010 report)

● Gross Domestic Product (GDP) = £1.1billion pa● Value Added (pay plus profits) = £485million pa● Exports = £496million pa● Imports = £365million pa● Balance of Trade = £+131million pa●

●

● Total 40yr tax revenue (Shetland oil) = £100-150bn

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Wir Shetland

● Billions going out of Shetland annually● School roles have been falling indicating depopulation

● Closing schools just makes it worse● First - we must investigate “Depopulation” is it really happening? If so why?

● Second – Act to reverse the decline.● Absolute last resort to consider school future. Presumption against closure

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Depopulation

Lack of modern communications, transport, facilities & services – Centralisation

Fewer people – less spend

Downward spiral is produced.

Many remote communities are suffering

With Decent roads, Fast Broadband, modern ferries, Tunnels & Bridges only where the population demands them, communities CAN thrive.

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Ferries

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Central government funding of Ferries

13-14 14-15 15-160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Clyde and Hebrides

Northern Isles

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How to finance it?

UK has mineral rights, EU has fishing, Shetland has none.

UK has specific derogation from EU law allowing the quota system to operate.

Assume Shetland gains Autonomy (BOT status)

Shetland gains the Shetland portion of the UK EEZ

Full control of fishing, aquaculture, minerals, taxation & licensing in the entire Shetland EEZ.

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Exchequer Balance

● The SIC Input Output report for 2010-2011 states:-● The Shetland economy is worth over £1Billion annually

● The Exchequer Balance is the difference between total government revenue raised in Shetland against total government expenditure. The report calculates that, in 2010/11, Shetland generated a positive Exchequer Balance of £82 million

● Total revenue raised by the government in Shetland in 2010-11 was £219 million

● In 2016 the SIC is due to receive £87.7 million (a cut of 4.5%

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Offshore Oil and Gas

● Northern North Sea plus West of Shetland Workforce was 20,000 in 2014 (source: UK Oil and Gas UK)

● Average worker is paying £10,000pa income tax

● Revenue to Shetland = £200Mpa;● For conservative estimate, £200Mpa divide by 2 = £100Mpa

● licensing, corporation tax, etc.,

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Gains and Losses

● Loss – Scottish government funding - £80Mpa● Gain – Exchequer Balance - £82Mpa (2010)● Gain – Offshore employee taxation ~ £100Mpa● Gain – Oil Company taxes ~ £50-£200Mpa

£0.5B – £2.2B for whole UK, * 10% (conservative estimate for Shetland) UKOG predicted figures for 2014 – 2021

● Gain – tens of millions from expanded fishing rights.

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Net fiscal gain from Autonomy

Crude estimation based on previous slide.

Net Gain = £(82-80+100+50+20)Mpa

Net Gain = £172Mpa

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Why would they let us go?

● UN right to self determination● Scottish independence precedent

● 50% + 1 is enough to secure independence.

● In the case of a second Scottish referendum.● Better to negotiate with Shetland.

● Will loose all access to an independent Scotland.

● Negotiate position over EEZ – we demand it all, but could share access.

● Defense.