WG3Heavy precipitation, flash-floods and floods

Guy Delrieu, Alberto Montanari

Romualdo Romero, Evelyne Richard

Scientific questions

WG3-SQ1: What are the characteristics of extreme hydro-meteorological events in the Mediterranean ?

WG3-SQ2: How can we improve heavy rainfall process knowledge and their prediction ?

WG3-SQ3: How can we improve hydrological prediction?

WG3-SQ4: How extreme hydrometeorological events will evolve under future climate conditions during the XXIst century?

WG3 Contributions

~ 40 contributions (with already some grouping)

Substantial international involvment (France, Italy, Germany, Greece, Croatia Spain, Morocco, Cyprus, USA)

Atmospheric / Hydrological Proposals

EOP

SOP

2016

LOP

2017

Western Med + Greece

Eastern Med ?

Enhanced existing observatories and observing systems in the key regions of

high-impact weather: budgets and process studies

(+ dedicated short field campaigns)

Enhanced current operational observing system over the whole Mediterranean

basin: budgets

(data access ‘data policy’)

Special observing periods of high-impact weather events in selected regions of the EOP target areas

(aircrafts, ships,…): process studies

Phasing with THORPEX, HALO, MEDEX

Observation strategy : EOP/SOP

Observational strategy

1. Make an optimal use of existing networks

2. Select a number of target areas

3. Identify appropriate upstream supersites

4. Complement the observations over the sea

5. Deploy a number of instrumented aircraft (SOP)

6. Define numerical products for the mission planning Document the entire life cycle of HPE events

1 - Different existing networks EOP SOP Wind profilers Wind, Moisture

Lidars Aerosols, Moisture

GPS Moisture

Radars Precipitation, Wind, Microphysics

Lightning detection Microphysics

2 - Possible HPE target areas

CV

CA

DA

Four contrasted areas (rural/urban, medium/high orography, including one semi-arid area)

FV

CR

AP

VA

3 - Upwind sites

CV

CA

DAFV

CR

AP

VA

3 - Upwind sites instrumentation

RS / UHF / VHF / Sodar / RASS Lidar aerosol GPS Water vapor lidar or MW radiometer Operational radar or X band radar

Optimal distribution of available instruments ?

4 – Extend the measurements over the sea

Space (Cloudsat, Calipso, …)

Balloons (boundary layer bal., aeroclipper, driftsondes)

Shipborne instruments : RS, GPS, UHF, …

Local measurements (precip ?)

Aircraft (in situ, WV and wind lidar, cloud and precip radar ?)

5 - SOP Aircraft operation

SAFIRE ATR + WV Lidar LEANDRE II + microphysics

SAFIRE FALCON + RALI + microphysics + DS ?

HALO (NEPTUN, THORPEX) + Wind +WV lidar

IMK Dornier 28 (Turbulent fluxes)

DLR FALCON ??

NRL/P3 + ELDORA + Microphysics ?? 1 M€

PIs need to be identified and/or confirmed

5 - Aircraft operations (1) SOP

BAE 146 T-NAWDEX

HALO T-NAWDEX

Far upstream precursors

5 - Aircraft operations (2) SOP

HALO-NEPTUN DO 28

ATR + LEANDRE

Close upstream documentation of the pre-convective environment

5 - Aircraft operations (3) SOP

F-FALCON+ RALI

NRL P3 + ELDORA

Sampling of the precipitating system with microphysics measurements for radar retrieval validation

6 - Modelling strategy :(e.g. AROME –Med domain)

Many other proposals but for mission planning ECMWF, ARPEGE, ALADIN …

An example HPE target area: Cévennes-Vivarais (CV)

Upwind supersite

GPS transects

4 to 5 X band radars

Similar setting over Spain, Italy, Greece?

MAP – IOP2B – 6h precip

MAP – IOP2B – PV + wind @ 850hPa

Available instrumentation

LA (?)UHF wind profilerRadiometer (T, qv,ql)

DLR (?) POLDIRAD Cloud radar (HALO)

LATMOS X Band Radar (?) Hydrix (Marseille?)

IMK ( Date ?)2 RS stationsDoppler wind lidar (PBL/low trop)Cloud radar Surface measurements

Univ. Hohenheim (?)WV lidar X band radar

Univ Potenza (?)WV lidar

Modelling strategy :

Many proposals and probably more to come / Focus on Real time for IIP

Many HR plateforms AROME WRF MOLOCH COSMO MESO-NH

Strong need for effective guidance

Lidar network : Moisture and aerosol monitoring (G.Liberti)

11 WV lidars

3 movable

Roma / Potenza

Hohenheim

Optimal location for SOPs?

SOP : Corsica ? Majorca ? Montpellier ?

GPS network : Moisture monitoring (O. Bock)

SOP : Additional stations in specific target areas and on ships

QPF and HPE radar network (?? + O. Bousquet)

African cost ??

Corsica – Western cost ??

Poldirad - Ebro valley ??

3D Wind – 4 years – 15’

+ Micoph. Retrieval (SOP)

Monitoring of lightning activity

Link between the 2 proposals? Additional needs for SOP ???

Defer et al. PROFEO, LINET, METEORAGE, ATD Multiscale strategy (storm, region, basin)

Lagouvardos et al. ZEUS, LINET

Wind profiler network (J.L. Caccia)

Nice (uncertain), Minorca (?), Corsica (LA UHF, ?) Montpellier Network dense enough for a high quality 3D wind retrieval ?

(Ducrocq))

Select HPE target areas EOP SOP

(Frei and Schär)

Select HPE target areas EOP SOP

Deep convection in Fall (SON) – AMSU B

Funatsu et al, MWR cond. accepted