Western Forest Industry: An Economic Outlook by John A. Guthrie; George R. ArmstrongReview by: Anthony ScottThe Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science / Revue canadienne d'Economique etde Science politique, Vol. 29, No. 1 (Feb., 1963), p. 129Published by: Wiley on behalf of Canadian Economics AssociationStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/139384 .

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Reviews of Books 129

SHORT NOTICES

Western Forest Industry: An Economic Outlook, by JOHN A. GUTHRIE and GEORGE R. ARMSTRONG (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press for Resources for the Future, Inc. [Toronto: Burns and MacEachern], 1961, pp. xxvi, 324, $7.95). This excellent study covers the forest-products industries of Alaska, British Columbia, and eleven western states. Starting with a view of the forest stock, its location, species and growth, it quickly lays the foundations for its particu- lar interest by turning to ownership. It is established that the region's private timber lands (only 17 per cent of its area and 20 per cent of its volume) now yield about 38 per cent of the timber cut. Furthermore, only about 40 per cent of this private stock is now being used-the rest is unprofitable at current prices and costs, is being hoarded, or is neglected by a multitude of small owners.

The authors then study the lumber, pulp and paper, and plywood industries in some depth, giving attention to their raw material supplies and costs, pro- cessing efficiencies and markets. They make many provocative observations; for example, the ability of sawmillers to sell their waste has greatly reduced their incentive to adopt methods which do not produce waste, and has led to an apparently permanent pattern of pulp mills dependent on satellite sawmills, even though a more thoughtful policy might have led to a different division of logs between waste-free sawmills and log-using pulpmills.

The industry studies lead on to a series of forecasts (1960 to 1975) for lum- ber, pulpwood, and plywood consumption. The lumber estimates are most intriguingly divided among states to take account of the fact that loggers in (say) Washington will probably overcut in relation to stock by (say) 1965, and will then migrate to (say) Oregon so that the Oregon share of the cut falls, then rises, within the forecast period. Although the forecasts have been made with care, some of them still are presented with a range, within only fifteen years, of almost 30 per cent of the minimum figure. Taking into account the expected errors in the inventory figures on which they depend, they can only give the roughest kind of guidance to policy-makers and managers.

At the end of the book the authors return to the ownership question. The dominance of its stocks means that "government" must determine the future rate of production. What policy will it adopt? The sooner it starts a sustained yield policy (by cutting off existing old trees and making room for new growth), the smaller will that sustained-annual-yield be. A rapid cut-off now also means lower prices, a booming market, cheaper private timber land, and an expanded products industry. Government feels it should avoid this train of events, since the processing industry will later have to contract when the sustained yield regime arrives. The authors fully explore the assumptions and implications of this paternalistic policy, both to explain the attitude and responses to it of private owners and processors, and to suggest (modestly) that it ought to be modified. [ANTHONY SCOTT]

The Chinese of Semarang: A Changing Minority Community of Indonesia, by DONALD EARL WILLMOTr (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, under

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