Western Cascadia Border Operations: delay and the impact on supply chains

Anne GoodchildApril 23, 2008

Assistant ProfessorCivil and Environmental Engineering

University of Washington

Graduate Students

Li Leung

Susan Albrecht

Previous Research

• Impact of border crossing time variability on regional supply chains

– On average delays are modest for FAST approved vehicles– Delays are more problematic for nonFAST vehicles– Carriers are very knowledgeable about average and standard

deviation of delay– 2 standard deviations used as expected variability and built into

schedule– Very long delays (> 2 hours) are very disruptive– The cost of variability is low

• Regional industry is not tightly scheduled due to commodity profile, typical distances and ability to predict travel times

Data from Pacific Highway Crossing, GPS data, interviews with carriers and existing sources

TT

Delay increases cost beyond average delay

• Responses to variability– Buffer time– Terminal time

• Cost is a function of the Pacific Northwest market– Schedules are designed to about 4 hour accuracy– More significant for scheduled or time sensitive

industries such as fresh seafood and air freight

DS

4 of top 5 crossings in Ontario

Top 5 US/Canada Border Crossing (2006)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Months

Nu

mb

er o

f C

ross

ing

s

WA:Blaine

NY:Champlain-Rouses Pt.

NY:Buffalo-Niagara Falls

MI:Port Huron

MI:Detroit

Source: BTS

Southbound Routes

ORIGINS

 West Lower

MainlandRest BC Alberta

East LowerMainland

WhatcomWest

CanadaEast

CanadaTOTAL

DESTINATIONS

Alaska 0.1%   0.1%         0.2%

East Canada 0.1%             0.1%

Whatcom 10.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%   0.1% 11.6%

Puget Sound 34.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.2%     0.4% 37.1%

West WA 4.4% 0.2% 0.1%         4.8%

East WA 3.2%             3.2%

West USA 28.4% 1.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 31.0%

Rest USA 11.6% 0.4%           12.1%

TOTAL

93.2% 3.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5%  

Seattle to Vancouver ~ 150 miles

Source: WCOG

AP

Pacific Highway Cross-Border Truck Commodities & Origin-Destination Patterns

Non-metallic products3%

Plastics and rubber2%

Prepared foodstuffs 3%

Base metals2%

Meat, fish, and seafood2%

Misc. manufactured products2%

Allied paper products4%

Agricultural products4%

Other18%

Wood products7%

Empty/Empty containers47%

Articles in base metal2%

Waste and scrap2%

Border Crossing Time Distribution

4 hours20 minutes

Carriers had different responses to border delay than urban congestion delay.

Disruptionsoff-hours

0:00:00

0:28:48

0:57:36

1:26:24

1:55:12

2:24:00

2:52:48

3:21:36

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Tim

e (

min

) NB Average

NB Standard Deviation

SB Average

SB Standard Deviation

Some of the largest delays occur off-peak

Long delays are not infrequent

What is the cause of 2 hour delays?

• Compare truck arrival data from BCMOT to delay data from probe vehicles

• If the patterns are consistent we expect that demand is driving the delay

• If they are not consistent we expect it is a supply side or operational problem

If served at non-FAST rate

If all served at FAST rate

If served at non-FAST rate

If all served at FAST rate

Arrival Pattern - All Spring Mondays

Delay Pattern – All Spring Mondays

0:14:24

0:43:12

1:12:00

1:40:48

2:09:36

2:38:24

3:07:12

7:12:00 8:24:00 9:36:00 10:48:00 12:00:00 13:12:00 14:24:00 15:36:00 16:48:00 18:00:00 19:12:00

Arrival Time

Ave

rag

e 5

min

ute

del

ay

0:14:24

0:43:12

1:12:00

1:40:48

2:09:36

2:38:24

3:07:12

7:12:00 8:24:00 9:36:00 10:48:00 12:00:00 13:12:00 14:24:00 15:36:00 16:48:00 18:00:00 19:12:00

Arrival Time

Ave

rag

e 5

min

ute

del

ay

Delay Pattern – All Spring Mondays

Primary

Secondary

Delay Pattern – All Spring Mondays

Summary• Variability:

– Delay incurs cost beyond the average– The economic cost of this is low at Blaine due to the characteristics of

regional trade– Significant cost from very long delays

• Western Cascadia has a unique profile of trade– Typical travel distances– Commodity profile– Consistent pattern of truck arrivals

• Very Long Delays:– A significant proportion of the delay is from secondary sources– Supply and demand side delay patterns can be observed in many cases– We are currently exploring these phases and summarizing observations

Dataset Comparison (Southbound)

• FAST vehicle distributions match in the two datasets, therefore we assume the nonFAST data for June 2006 is reasonably representative of average nonFAST crossing times.

• The average wait time for nonFAST vehicles is distinctly longer than for FAST vehicles, but the standard deviation is not.

• Over the three day period the average arrival rate per lane for the WCOG data is the same for FAST and non-FAST (21.5 vehicles per hour) but FAST service rates are shorter (86 seconds compared to 119, 121 for the two non-FAST lanes), so differences in wait time are due to differences in service rates rather than differences in arrival rates.

Probe WCOG

Average wait time FAST

23 minutes

22 minutes

Standard deviation FAST

24 minutes

21 minutes

90th Percentile FAST

47 minutes

Average wait time nonFAST

1 hour 23 minutes

Standard deviation nonFAST

26 minutes

Seasonal Variation

0:00:00

0:14:24

0:28:48

0:43:12

0:57:36

1:12:00

1:26:24

Janua

ry

Febru

ary

Marc

hApril

May

June

July

August

Septem

ber

Oct

ober

Nove

mber

Dece

mber

Tim

e (

min

)

NB Average

NB Standard Deviation

SB Average

SB Standard Deviation

Some of the largest delays occur off-season