west africa - gaffney, cline & associates opportunities and... · 4 where is the west african...

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West Africa Pre-salt

Opportunities and Challenges

The Royal Institution 29th January, 2014

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Confidentiality and Disclaimer Statement

This document is confidential and has been prepared for the exclusive

use of the Client or parties named herein. It may not be distributed or

made available, in whole or in part, to any other company or person

without the prior knowledge and written consent of GCA. No person or

company other than those for whom it is intended may directly or

indirectly rely upon its contents. GCA is acting in an advisory capacity

only and, to the fullest extent permitted by law, disclaims all liability for

actions or losses derived from any actual or purported reliance on this

document (or any other statements or opinions of GCA) by the Client or

by any other person or entity.

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Introduction

▪ Where / What is the West African “Pre-salt”?

▪ How is it defined

– Geographic Area

– Stratigraphy

– Presence of Aptian Aged Salt

▪ Why the Interest?

– Brazil (recent pre-salt success)

– Recent discoveries in Angola / Gabon

▪ What is the potential?

– Have the early wells delivered?

– What lies ahead

▪ Conclusions

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Where is the West African “Pre-salt”?

▪ Gabon to Angola

▪ Onshore and Offshore

▪ Ultra-deepwater potential

~ 3500m water depth

▪ Exploration has occurred

in the “Pre-Salt” since the

1950’s

▪ Re-envigorated by recent

discoveries

▪ New interest following

discoveries in Brazilian

pre-salt

Source: Deloitte - Petroview

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Pre-Salt Creaming Curve

IHS data

CAMEIA-1

• c. 12 exploration wells yet to be drilled in the pre-salt in next 12-18 months? • Will add only a few new data points to the creaming curve. Can careful analysis

of the existing data provide insight into the most-likely outcomes

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What is the Pre-salt?

▪ “Pre-Salt” exploration has been on-going since the 1950’s

▪ First offshore “Pre-salt” discovery in 1964

▪ Recent interest due to Pre-salt success in Brazil

(conjugate margin to Angola and Gabon)

▪ Recent exploration has moved into deeper water

▪ Are the onshore and shallow-water an analogue for the

deep-water?

▪ What are the key drivers for success?

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Why the interest? • Can the Brazillian Pre-salt play be

repeated in West Africa? • What lessons can be transferred? • What mistakes could there be?

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South Atlantic Reconstructions

▪ Early Cretaceous (Valanginian)

▪ Evolution of the West African

Margin during rifting phase to end

of rift / start of drift and deposition

of evaporites (salt)

▪ Pre-rift shows Brazil adjacent to

Angola and Gabon

Heine et al. (2013)

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▪ Shows evolution of the West

African Margin during rifting phase

to end of rift / start of drift and

deposition of evaporites (salt)

▪ Initial rifting leads to development

of rift basin with non-marine

deposition

▪ Marine sediments deposited in the

south Atlantic (south of Walvis

Ridge)

Heine et al. (2013)

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▪ Shows evolution of the West

African Margin during rifting phase

to end of rift / start of drift and

deposition of evaporites (salt)

▪ South America and Africa have

rifted completely

▪ Start of “Sag Phase”

▪ Deposition north of Walvis Ridge

still non-marine – deposition of salt

Heine et al. (2013)

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West African Stratigraphy

Pre-salt

• Variation in stratigraphy along the West African Margin • Thickness, lithology and formations • Even greater variability from inboard to outboard?

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Pre-salt Palaeogeography

• Simple palaeogeography – similar facies on both Brazillian and West African margin • Interpretation constrained by onshore and shallow-water wells (inboard). • Wells from Brazil suggest that palaeogeographies are more complex and contain

lithologies not seen onshore / shallow-water (inboard – outboard variation). • Need to consider tectonic / subsidence history of the rift – what impact does this

have on the depositional setting, sediment type and burial history.

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Pre-salt geology

▪ Rift to sag basin due to opening of the South Atlantic in the

Cretaceous

▪ Margins of the basin(s) have been explored since the

1950’s

▪ How representative is the onshore / shallow-water

(inboard) of the basin when exploring the deep-water

(outboard)?

▪ Is the Brazillian Pre-salt a better analogy for deep-water

West Africa?

▪ Need to understand the evolution of the rift basin and

appreciate the temporal and spatial variations within the

sediment in the basin

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Seismic Cartoon

• Cartoon (based on seismic) to illustrate the deep-water geology

• Thinning continental crust from east to west

• Laterally variable Pre-salt thickness – no salt on oceanic crust

• Variable salt thickness / geometries – complex sub-salt seismic imaging

• Complex heatflow and thermal history – source rock maturation and hydrocarbon types

Top Basement?

Top Salt

Base Crust

Sea Bed

Top Aptian Base Salt

Top Miocene

West East

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Conceptual Model

Post-Salt

Oceanic

Crust

Continental Crust

Syn-Rift

Syn-Rift

“Sag” Phase

1. Variable Rift Timing

2. Subsidence History

3. Sedimentary succession

4. Reservoir + Source + Seal

5. Temperature / Thermal history

6. Timing of hydrocarbon generation

7. Oil v Gas

The variable subsidence and thermal history generate a complex petroleum

system across the margin

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Shallow-water Angola Mafumeira Sul

Mafumeira Sul

Source: Deloitte - Petroview

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Mafumeira Sul (Block 0)

▪ New seismic survey to define Pre-salt geometry

▪ Pre-salt development – Start-up in 2015

– 5 new platforms

– 2 wellhead platforms (water depth 60 m)

▪ 50 wells

– 34 producers

– 16 injectors

▪ 110,000 bopd + 10,000 bbls/d LPG

▪ Re-invigorates the local area – inboard - limited regional impact?

▪ Different play-segment to the recent deep-water (outboard) discoveries, only limited transfer of play elements and de-risking of the play?

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Deepwater Angola – Pre-salt wells

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CAMEIA-1 (2011)

360m gross interval

5,010 bbls/d of 44 API oil

AZUL-1 (2011)

Tested oil with mini-DST

Potential for 3,000 bopd

BUCIAR-1 (2013)

56 m of net oil and

condensate pay

CAMEIA-2 (2012)

Tested deeper interval – no

hydrocarbons to surface

LONTRA-1 (2013)

75 m net pay 2,500 bbls/d

condensate + 39 MMcfgd

MAVINGA-1 (2013)

30 m net pay

DENDEN-1 (1983)

Pre-salt test

25 API oil in Chela Sdst OGANGA-1 (2012)

Pre-salt test in Benguala Basin (Block 26)

Write-off – CO2 gas w/ hydrocarbons Source: Deloitte - Petroview

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Pre-salt Deepwater

▪ Analogous to Brazil Deep-water (outboard) play?

▪ Successful demonstration of play – Some tests encouraging

– Gassy – Oil, Condensate and Gas on test

– Well rates and costs critical issue

▪ Onshore may not be appropriate analogy for outboard area – rapid changes from inboard to outboard?

▪ Further drilling planned 2014 – 15 to further delineate the play and assess the hydrocarbon potential

▪ Play is complex with issues of reservoir quality and extent, hydrocarbon type and pool size

▪ Detailed analysis and careful assessment is required to define the play and understand its potential

▪ Need to ensure that the play elements are thoroughly understood and that lessons learnt are correctly applied

▪ TRANSFER OF CONCEPT IS NOT A DONE DEAL!

west africa - gaffney, cline & associates opportunities and... · 4 where is the west african...

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