wells fargo 2013 industrial & construction conference · wells fargo 2013 industrial &...
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Wells Fargo 2013 Industrial & Construction Conference
Rob Knight, CFO - May 8, 2013
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Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions and business growth; its ability to provide safe, efficient and reliable customer service and increase customer value and shareholder returns. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.
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Portland
Los Angeles
Calexico
Seattle
Brownsville
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Nogales El Paso
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Kansas City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Fastest Growing States
Ports
Borders & Interchange
C
To/From Asia
Portla
Oaklala
To/From Asia
To Europe, South America
and Africa
Industrial 16%
Agricultural 19%
Chemicals 15%
asosEagle Pass Laredo
Dallas
Eastport
a
Industriiiiialallllll 16%
Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%
ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%
Intermodal 20%
Coal 20%
Autos 9%
Industrial 18%
Agricultural 17%
Chemicals 16%
Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012
• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &
Border Crossings
The Strength of a Unique Franchise
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2004* 2012 2004* 2012
Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012
Operating Ratio 87.5%
67.8%
#1 – Industry Improvement
2004* 2012
EPS
$1.42
$8.27
ROIC
5.3%
14.0%
+25% CAGR
* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.
-19.7 points
+8.7 points
7 Day Volume @ 184K
7 Day Volume @ 176K
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First Quarter 2013 Record Results
Positives • First Quarter Records
– Operating Revenue – Operating Income – Operating Ratio – Earnings – Customer Satisfaction
• Franchise Diversity • Network Efficiency
Challenges • Coal & Grain Volumes
2011 2012 2013
74.7
70.5 69.1
Operating Ratio (%) First Quarter
(1.4) pts
2011 2012 2013
$1.29
$1.79 $2.03 1st Qtr Record
+13%
Earnings Per Share First Quarter
1st Qtr Record
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2013 Volume Drivers
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
7-Day Monthly Carloadings (000s)
2006 @192
2010 @172
January December
2011 @176.5
2009 @152
Coal
Intermodal
YTD 2013 Volume Growth* (vs YTD 2012)
al
Agricultural
TOTAL
Flat
+2%
-8%
-15%
+2%
-2%
+13%
Automotive
Chemicals
Industrial Products
Sub Total (excl Coal) +2%
2012 @ 176
*Through May 5, 2013
2013* down 2% YTD
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Coal Trends
Natural Gas Prices (NYMEX)
Electricity Generation
Southern Powder River Basin
74%
Other 13%
Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)
1Q 4Q 27,000
31,000
35,000
39,000
43,000
47,000
2011
2012
2Q 3Q
1Q 2013 Drivers • 2013 Contract Loss • High Coal Stockpiles and
Inventory Management • Mine Production Issues
2013*
*Through May 4, 2013
50% 50% 48% 48% 47%
38% 42%
17% 20% 19% 21% 20%
27% 25%
2007 2009 2011 2013
% from coal % from natural gas
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$2.71 $2.30
$2.49
$2.96 $2.92
$3.69 $3.35
$3.77 $4.14 2013 2012
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UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic
Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)
UP Interchange Points
New Industrial Investment
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
708 764 776 743
600
750 817
857
Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)
+5%
Ports
2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)
Audi - $1.3B
Agricultural 14%
Autos 45%
Intermodal 24% Industrial
10%
Chemicals 6%
Coal 1%
+9%
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Portland
Los Angeles
Seattle
Houston New Orleans
Twin Cities
Duluth
Oakland Omaha
Denver Salt Lake City
Chicago
Memphis
St. Louis
Borders & Interchange
Industrial 16%
Dallas
Eastport
Industrial 17%
Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)
Assembly Centers (UP served and in Mexico)
Kansas City
Union Pacific Connecting NAFTA Markets Automotive
2003-2007 Avg.
2017E
16.6
14.4
16.6
U.S. Vehicle Sales* (MM)
* April 2013 IHS Global Insight
2012
2005 2017E
1.6
2.9
3.9
2012
Mexico Auto Production* (MM)
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Permian Basin
Marcellus
Eagle Ford
Niobrara
Bakken
Canadian Crude
Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins
Utica
Barnett
$105 Brent
$105 Brent
$105 Brent
$107 LLS
$83
$85
$92
Crude prices as of 5/3/13 Source: Plains Posting & Argus Research
$92
FY11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
36.7
22.0
33.7 40.5 41.3
45.6
Crude Oil Carloads (000s)
Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail
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Shreveport
Ft. Worth
Dallas
Houston New Orleans
San Antonio
Brownsville
Ethylene Plants New Plant/Expansions
Expanding Chemical Franchise Texas/Louisiana Investments
Formosa Plastics Corp. • >$1.7 Billion investment in cracker
and additional capacity projects. • Cracker capacity: 800,000 mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
Dow Chemical Co. • $1.7 Billion investment in cracker
and additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017
Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. • $5 Billion investment in cracker &
additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017
k
Gruppo Mossi & Ghisolfi • Investment in new PET & PTA plants. • Capacity: 1.0 & 1.2 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
Source: Public Announcements
Exxon Mobil Corp. • Investment in steam cracker. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2013* 2007 2009 2011
UP Wkly Carloadings
Housing Starts (mils)
Housing Trends
*Through May 4, 2013
• Housing represents ~8% of current UP volumes
• Lumber, Stone & Glass down 2,500 carloads a week, a 1.5% overall volume impact
• Housing also drives appliances, roofing, rebar, aggregates, and cement demand
• Including IP, Chemicals & Intermodal, return to normal could add volume growth opportunity of ~5%
Lumber, Stone & Glass
2013 YTD Lumber up
19%
‘04
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Highway Conversions • Comprehensive Network
– ~10 Million Domestic Truck-Load Conversion Opportunity
– ~3 Million Truckload Opportunity Originating from Mexico
• Strong Value Proposition – Competitive Service at an
Affordable Price – Environmental Friendliness
• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &
Infrastructure
1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13
6%
3%
1%
4%
Flat
-3%
3%
1%
Flat
8%
Volume Growth (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)
International Domestic
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Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue
2014 $100
2016 $100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q13
6% 6%
4.5% 5% 4.5% 4.5% 4%
Core Pricing Gains
202022222 141$100
20202202 16$100
Contracts > 1 Year
40% Contracts < 1 Year
30%
Tariffs 30%
Balanced Revenue Portfolio
• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement
• New Business Supports Margin Improvement
• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows
• Remaining Legacy Portfolio
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Delivering Value to Shareholders
Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)
Future Allocation
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E
$3.1 $2.5 $2.5
$3.2 $3.7 ~$3.6
Returns & Investments (Capital in Billions)
10.2%
14.0%
ROIC*
Declared Dividends Per Share
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
$0.745 $0.98 $1.08
$1.31
$1.93
$2.49 +3x
Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q'13
$1.5 $1.5
$2.8
$4.2
$5.7 $6.1
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Union Pacific – A Promising Future • 2013 Shaping up to be
Another Record Year
• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels
• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation
• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise
• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network
• Drive Increased Shareholder Returns
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Question & Answer Session