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Welfare Reform: TANF During Welfare Reform: TANF During the Recession and into the Future
Ron Haskins
August 9 2011August 9, 2011
2
Major Topics
• Unsustainable Federal Debt
• Recession Unemployment Poverty• Recession, Unemployment, Poverty
• Temporary Assistance for Needy Families:
- Effects of 1996 Reforms
TANF and the Great Recession- TANF and the Great Recession
- The Future of TANF
3
The Unsustainable Fiscal Path
60
70
40
50
nt o
f GD
P
Medicare Medicaid
Net InterestAverage Federal Revenue, 1970-2009
20
30
Perc
e
Social Security
Medicare, Medicaid, Exchange Subsidies, and
CHIP
0
10
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080
Source: Congressional Budget Office, “Supplemental Data for the Congressional Budget Office's Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2010),” available at http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/115xx/doc11579/LTBO-2010data.xlsNote: Based on the Alternative Fiscal Scenario
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080Year
4
Employment-Population Ratio in SelectEmployment-Population Ratio in Select Countries, 1984-2009
80
70
75
60
65
Perc
ent
Netherlands
55
60 Netherlands
Germany
UK
45
50
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
USA
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Year
Source: OECD Stat Extracts (http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DatasetCode=LFS_D)
5
Average Monthly Job Creation by Best SingleAverage Monthly Job Creation by Best Single Year of Decade and after the Great Recession
321350
321
268
250
300
eati
on
200
250
hly
Net
Job
Cre
ousa
nds)
127
100
150
vera
ge M
onth
(Tho
0
50Av
1990s 2000s Dec 2009 ‐ Mar 2011Best Year by Decade
Source: Brookings tabulations of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.
6
Median Duration of Unemployment,Median Duration of Unemployment, 1980-2011
20
25
15
s un
empl
oyed
5
10Wee
ks
0
5
980
981
982
983
984
985
986
987
988
989
990
991
992
993
994
995
996
997
998
999
000
001
002
003
004
005
006
007
008
009
010
011
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Year
Sources: FRED2 (http://research.stlouisfed.org) compiled from Bureau of Labor Statistics data; National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html)
7
Unemployed Workers per Job Opening,Unemployed Workers per Job Opening, 2000-2010
17
6.1
4.7 1
1
1
5
6
ning
s
0
1
1
3
4
oym
ent/O
pen
1.1
0
0
0
1
2
Unem
pl
0
0
0
Dec
-00
Jun-
01
Dec
-01
Jun-
02
Dec
-02
Jun-
03
Dec
-03
Jun-
04
Dec
-04
Jun-
05
Dec
-05
Jun-
06
Dec
-06
Jun-
07
Dec
-07
Jun-
08
Dec
-08
Jun-
09
Dec
-09
Jun-
10
Dec
-10
May
-11
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (http://data.bls.gov/); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey (http://data.bls.gov)
Year
8
Poverty and Deep Poverty in Female-HeadedPoverty and Deep Poverty in Female Headed Households with Children, 1975-2009
5043 7
40
rty
43.7
38.5
30
nt in
Pov
e
Official Poverty Rate
D P
10
20
Perc
en Deep Poverty
6 3
0
10
75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09
3.7
6.3
197
197
197
198
198
198
198
198
199
199
199
199
199
200
200
200
200
200
YearSource: U.S. Census Bureau, “Table 4: Poverty Status of Families , by Type of Family, Presence of Related Children, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2009,” available at http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html.
9
People Removed from Poverty byPeople Removed from Poverty by Various Programs, 2009Program Removed from Poverty (Millions)g y ( )
Social Security 21.2Supplemental Security Income 2.6Unemplo ment Compensation 3 5Unemployment Compensation 3.5SNAP (Food Stamps) 3.8Housing 1.5Taxes and Recovery Payments 5.2
Note: Definition of poverty is based on post‐tax, post‐transfer income (not the official poverty definition).Source: Arloc Sherman, “Despite Deep Recession and High Unemployment, Government Efforts Including the Recovery Act Prevented Poverty from Rising in 2009, New Census Data Show,” Washington, DC: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, January 2011.
10
C l iConclusions
• The Great Recession by every measure was• The Great Recession by every measure was long and deep
• Employment fell more than in previous• Employment fell more than in previous recessions and is not recovering quicklyThe safety net kept many Americans out of• The safety net kept many Americans out of povertyTANF did t i h th f t• TANF did not increase as much as other safety net programs
11
Fi C f TANFFive Components of TANF
1 E d C h E i l1. End Cash Entitlement
2 Block Grant Funding2. Block Grant Funding
3. Work Requirements
4. Sanctions
5. 5-Year Time Limit
12
Employment-to-Population Ratios forEmployment to Population Ratios for All Men and Never-Married Mothers, 1980 - 2009
100
88.8
82.6
80
90
100
tio
61.1
50
60
70
Popu
latio
n R
at
38.730
40
Empl
oym
ent/P
Men
0
10
20
E
Never‐Married Mothers
Source: Brookings tabulations of data from the Annual Social and Economic Supplement to the Current Population Survey, 1980-2009.
Year
13
Poverty Rates for Black Children and ChildrenPoverty Rates for Black Children and Children in Female-Headed Households, 1974-2009
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Table 4: Poverty Status of Families , by Type of Family, Presence of Related Children, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959 to 2009,” available at www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/hstpov4.xls and U.S. Census Bureau, “Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009,” U.S. Department of Commerce, September 2010, Table B-2, Poverty Status of People by Age, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1959-2009.
14
Support for Working FamiliesSupport for Working Families Increases Dramatically, 1984-1999
$51.7
40
50
Child CareSCHIPChild Tax Credit
30
f 199
9 D
olla
rs
Child Tax CreditMedicaidEITC
20
Bill
ions
of
10
$5.6
0Spending in 1999 under:
1984 Law 1999 Law
Source: Congressional Budget Office, Policy Changes Affecting Mandatory Spending for Low-Income Families Not Receiving Welfare, 1998.
15
TANF and Safety Net Programs During the Great Recession
1225
10
12
20
25SNAP Caseload
Unemployment Compensation
TANF (Families)9.5
6
8
15
ent R
ate
nt)
m R
ecip
ient
sns
)
Unemployment Rate
12.2
19.4
4
6
10
Une
mpl
oym
e(P
erce
n
umbe
r of P
rogr
am(in
Mill
ion
4.7
25
Nu
1.9
1.65
3.5
1.8400
Nov
-07
Dec
-07
Jan-
08
Feb-
08
Mar
-08
Apr
-08
May
-08
Jun-
08
Jul-0
8
Aug
-08
Sep
-08
Oct
-08
Nov
-08
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
Jun-
09
Jul-0
9
Aug
-09
Sep
-09
Oct
-09
Nov
-09
Dec
-09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar
-10
Apr
-10
May
-10
Jun-
10
Jul-1
0
Month-Year
16
Percentage of Poor Receiving FoodPercentage of Poor Receiving Food Stamps/SNAP and AFDC/TANF, 1987-2009
Source: Thomas Gabe, Welfare, Work, and Poverty Status of Female-Headed Families with Children: 1987-2009 (Congressional Research Service, 2011).
17
TANF ITANF Issues
• Disconnected Mothers• Disconnected Mothers• Work Requirements
E l t d T i i• Employment and Training• Recessions• Is TANF a Safety Net Program?
18
G l NGoals Now
• Maintain emphasis on work in TANF• Maintain emphasis on work in TANF• Increase work requirements in food stamps
(SNAP) and housing programs(SNAP) and housing programs• Improve employment and training programs
H l di d• Help disconnected moms• Improve performance of TANF during
recessions