welcome to the 2012 nysfaaa conference! easfaa president’s address cathleen patella, wells college
TRANSCRIPT
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Welcome to the 2012 NYSFAAA Conference!
EASFAA President’s Address
Cathleen Patella,Wells College
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College (Un)bound
The Future of Higher Education
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My frame of reference
Class of 2031 | Class of 2033
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• How We Got Here
• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
• The Value Gap
• Disrupting College
• Discussion: What It Means For You
4
Road Map
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1999-2009
A Decade of More
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Source: U.S. Education Department
More Students,More Degrees
Number of students up by 1/3 since late 1990s
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More Credentials
2 in 5 titles on government list of academic programs didn’t appear on it in 1990
21% increase in titles since 2000
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Source: The College Board
More Tuition
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More Debt
$307,000,000,000
Amount of debt taken on by colleges, which has almost doubled just since 2001
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Students were willing to go to any college and
pay almost anything for a degree
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The collapse of the decade of more.
1999-2009: A Lost Decade for higher education?
2008
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• How We Got Here
• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
• The Value Gap
• Disrupting College
• Discussion: What It Means For You
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The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
Sea of Red Ink
Completion Demographics
Improved Alternatives
More diversity Less prepared The swirl
Low completion rates More skilled jobs Flat attainment
Next generation learner
Flipped classroom The great unbundling
Institutional debt State role in higher
ed Family ability to pay
Value What am I learning? Will I get a job? Make enough to pay
debt?
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Completion | Public Colleges
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Demographics | Student Swirl
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Demographics
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Sea of Red InkEducational appropriations per FTE (fiscal 1985-2010)
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Source: The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education
Sea of Red InkBased on the trends since 1980,
average state fiscal support higher education will reach zero across the
U.S. in 2059
Colorado will reach zero first in 2022
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Improved Alternatives
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• How We Got Here
• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
• The Value Gap
• Disrupting College
• Discussion: What It Means For You
21
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no home equity
squeezed states
federal deficits
more out of pocket
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Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
What am I paying for?Rate the job the higher-education
system is doing in providing value for the money spent?
57% of public says fair/poor 76% of college presidents say
excellent/good
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Source: Pew Research Center/The Chronicle
1 in 3Number of presidents who said there is
no one single effective measure to judge the quality of a college degree
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How and what will I learn?
36%
Reading and writing
Field of study matters
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Source: Georgetown U. Center for Education & Workforce
Will I get a job?
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Will I make enough money to pay off my debt?
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Hollins UniversityRandolph College
Sweet Briar CollegeFerrum College
Virginia Intermont CollegeEmory and Henry College
Bridgewater CollegeRandolph-Macon College
Christendom CollegeUniversity of Virginia's College at Wise
Hampden-Sydney CollegeChristopher Newport University
Lynchburg CollegeVirginia State University
Longwood UniversityVirginia Wesleyan College
Liberty UniversityUniversity of Mary Washington
College of William and MaryRadford University
Mary Baldwin CollegeJames Madison University
Norfolk State UniversityHampton University
Roanoke CollegeVirginia Union University
State average for all Bachelor's degreesVirginia Commonwealth University
University of VirginiaEastern Mennonite University
Virginia TechShenandoah University
Old Dominion UniversityVirginia Military Institute
Marymount UniversityRegent University
University of RichmondAverett University
George Mason UniversityBluefield College
Washington and Lee UniversityAverett University Non-Traditional
Jefferson College of Health Sciences
$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000
$26,300$27,000
$28,300$28,500$28,900$29,100$29,800$30,200$30,400
$31,300$32,000$32,100$32,700$33,100$33,200
$34,400$34,400$34,800$34,900$34,900$35,300$35,900$36,500$37,200$37,300$37,300
$38,500$38,600$39,000
$40,000$40,000$40,300$40,400$40,800
$41,600$43,600
$44,500$45,500$46,000
$47,900$53,500$53,900
$70,700
Average First Year Wages of Bachelor Degree Graduates, By Institution
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First-year Wages of Graduates from the Three Largest Bachelor’s Programs of Study, by Institution (2008-2009)
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• How We Got Here
• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
• The Value Gap
• Disrupting College
• Discussion: What It Means For You
30
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Keys to Disrupting Legacy Industries
Hubris
Skepticism of anything new
Unwilling to hear opposing viewpoints
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“The only really necessary people in the publishing process now are the writer and the
reader. Everyone who stands between those two
has both risk and opportunity”
-Larry KirshbaumHead of Amazon’s NY Publishing Unit
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Key Question:
What are the less tangible aspects that define your college experience
that can’t be easily be replaced by fragmented, simplified services
on the Internet?
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The Coming Disruption
Most at Risk
Commodity courses
The network
The credential
Least at Risk
Maturing students
Research
The student/professor relationship
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• How We Got Here
• The Decade Ahead: 5 Disruptive Forces
• The Value Gap
• Disrupting College
• Discussion: What It Means For You
38
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Web: jeffselingo.com
E-mail:[email protected]
Twitter: @jselingo
Blog:chronicle.com/blogs/next
COMING IN SPRING 2013
College (Un)Bound: The Future of Higher Education and What It Means for Students