welcome. assessment of impacts of and adaptation to climate change in multiple regions and sectors...
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WelcomeWelcome
Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)
P.Batima, PI of the project, Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology
Potential Impacts of Climate Change Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment and V&A Assessment
for Grassland Ecosystem and for Grassland Ecosystem and Livestock Sector in MongoliaLivestock Sector in Mongolia
Asia-Pacific Regional WorkshopAsia-Pacific Regional WorkshopBangkok, 24-27 March 2002Bangkok, 24-27 March 2002
• Climate change studies in Mongolia Climate change studies in Mongolia • Project objectivesProject objectives• Institutional InvolvementInstitutional Involvement• MethodologyMethodology• ResultsResults
Contents:Contents:
Climate Changes StudiesClimate Changes Studiesin Mongoliain Mongolia
The first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program (USCSP), in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted preliminary assessment of climate change impacts.
Climate Changes Studies in MongoliaClimate Changes Studies in Mongolia
In 1999 Mongolia has developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies.
Mongolia has submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001.
Climate Changes Studies in MongoliaClimate Changes Studies in Mongolia
Project DevelopmentProject Development
• Implement NAPCC• Contribute to second NC
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
Potential Impacts of Climate Change andV&A Assessment for Rangeland and
Livestock in Mongolia
Past, present and futureclimate change
assessment
Impact and V&Aassessment of Rangeland
ecosystem
Impact and V&Aassessment of Livestockand Food productivity
productionUse of global CC scenarios
Pasture productivity
Water supply
Vegetation species
Pasture carrying capacity
CC Trend analysis
Selection of appropriateCC scenarios
Development of regionalCC scenarios
Soil-plant
Animal weight changes
Herd structure
Breading management
Meat and milk production
Socio-economic analysisNatural resources analysis Fodder and hey resources
Food structure and supply
The ministry most closely involved in climate change and environmental problem is the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE).
The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the administrating institution for the project implementation. The institute conducts climate change studies since 1993.
Other important organizations, which are involving in the project activities, the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of Agriculture and others. Private sectors and NGOs are also involving in climate change activities.
Institutional Involvement Institutional Involvement
Stakeholder
ConsultantsConsultantsExpertsExpertsWorkshopWorkshop
Field survey + + Participatory involvement survey
+ Training
The analytical approaches are based on review and evaluation of past studies and learning from the evaluation.
The ecosystem model “CENTURY”, The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin Conceptual model
Remote sensing and GIS technologies are using for data gathering, thematic processing of attributes, maps and images
CLIMATE DISTRIBUTION MODULE
ANIMAL PRODUCTIVITYMODULE
Current climate data GCM outputs Uniform change in climate
SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE
NATURAL RESOURCES MODULE
PASTURE PRODUCTIVITYMODULE
CLIMATE DISTRIBUTION MODULE
ANIMAL PRODUCTIVITYMODULE
Current climate data GCM outputs Uniform change in climate
SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE
NATURAL RESOURCES MODULE
PASTURE PRODUCTIVITYMODULE
MethodologiesMethodologies
Work plan
• Past and present climate change impactPast and present climate change impact• Vulnerability and Future CC impact Vulnerability and Future CC impact • Integrated and Adaptation AssessmentIntegrated and Adaptation Assessment
Trend analysisTrend analysis
Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and Temperature (annual, seasonal, heath and
cold wave)cold wave)
Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile)Precipitation (annual, seasonal, percentile)
Responses to climate change Responses to climate change
Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil)Natural resources (water, snow cover, soil)
Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology) Pasture (productivity, capacity, phenology)
Animal husbandry (weight, productivity)Animal husbandry (weight, productivity)
Field studyField study
Natural disasterNatural disaster
Trend analysisTrend analysis
• World air temperature 0.3-0.60C
for last 100 years
• Annual mean temperature 1.66oC of Mongolia
• Winter temperature 3.61oC• Spring 1.5oC• Summer 0oC
-2.5
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Changes in TemperatureChanges in Temperature
Changes in TemperatureChanges in Temperature
Changes in PrecipitationChanges in Precipitation
Responses to climate change
10/ III 20/ III
30/ III
9/ IV
19/ IV 29/ IV
9/ V 19/ V
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 26-IX
1-X
6-X
11-X
16-X
21-X
26-X
31-X
5-XI
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
50
100
150
200
250
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
cm
Water ResourcesWater Resources
Ìèæèääîðæ, ªëçèéñàéõàí
Snow CoverSnow Cover
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
601
98
0
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
Æèí /
êã
Áàÿðáààòàð
Animal HusbandryAnimal Husbandry
Natural disaster
Drought and wind storm
Field surveyField survey
Past and present CC Impacts
Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors
Assess potential impacts
Identify adaptation options
Examine constrains
Formulate alternative strategies
Develop implementation strategies
StepsSteps
Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government
Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming, variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey.
Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable region will be recommended.
Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems.
Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project.
OutputsOutputs