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Weekly Market Update 6-22-17 Part 2

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ThefirstofthisweeklymarketupdatewassentoutonMondaybecauseIsensedamajorturnwasathandforthemarkets.Itisnowclearthattheturnconcernsthe“reflationtrade.”Indeed,I’mgettingnumeroussignalsthatthistrendisreadyforitsnextlegup.Inflationexpectationshavestoppedgrindinglowerandappeartobeputtinginabase.

You’llnotethattheabovechartlooksremarkablysimilartothechartfor“growth/reflation”stockssuchasUSSteel(X)…

Weekly Market Update 6-22-17

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…aswellastheindustrialmetalscomplex(thoughthemovestherearenotasdramaticduetothediversificationofnumerousmetals).

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Moreover,Copperispreparingtomakeabreakouttotheupsideofitstrianglepattern:

Inflationexpectationsrising,pro-growthplaysrising,industrialmetalsrising…Thesechartsallpointto“REFLATON.”Theflipsideofthistrendwillbeasharpsell-offinbondsasyieldsrise.Indeed,Inoteasimilarpatternastheabovechartsdevelopinginthe10-YearTreasuryyield.

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AsyieldsriseinTreasuries,we’regoingtoseeasell-offinbondsacrosstheboard.Thismoveappearstoalreadybestarting.HighYieldorJunkbondsareabouttobreaktheirbullmarkettrendline.Myinitialdownsidetargetistheredline:

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Similarly,long-termTreasuries(TLT)haveslammedintoresistancerightastheycompletearisingwedgepattern.Myinitialtargetforthemovedownistheredlinearound121.

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Lookingatthesecharts,Iwanttoreduceourexposuretobondstoaminimum.OurlastremainingbondplayistheNuveenAMT-FreeMunicipalCreditIncomeFund(NVG).Indeed,NVG’srecentmoveupwardslookscomplete.Let’sclosethisplaynowandrevisitonceitcorrectsdowntotheredlineat$14.30

ActiontoTake:SelltheNuveenAMT-FreeMunicipalCreditIncomeFund(NVG).I’mreducingourBondallocationto0%inourmodelportfolio.Thefreedupcapitalshouldbeputtoworkinstocksinournewpro-reflationplays(theonesfromMonday’supdate:URA,CCJ,FCX,RIO,X,orthenewplaysbelow)andincashfornow.Indeed,someother“reflation”playshavecaughtmyeye.ThePeruETF(EPU)looksreadytoriphigher.

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ActiontoTake:BuythePeruETF(EPU)Chevron(CVX)hasbrokenoutofafallingwedgeandHELDthebreak.Thenextlegupisapproaching.

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ActiontoTake:BuyChevron(CVX)Finally,EnterpriseProductsPartners(EPD)hashitourtargetpriceforabuy:

ActiontoTake:BuyEnterpriseProductsPartner(EPD).Thisconcludesthisweek’sweeklymarketupdate.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopmentsyou’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Untilthen…

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,

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OPEN POSITIONS

STOCKS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasof6/22/17atmarket’sclose.Gainsincludedividends

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $13.74 -11% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.08

-6%

ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.98 $26.42 6%

PublicStorage PSA 3/23/17 $225.92 $211.18 -6%

ClearEnergyETF PBW 4/19/17 $4.06 $4.26 5%

BiotechETF IBB 4/26/17 $296.15 $320.11 8%

Verizon VZ 4/26/17 $47.17 $45.52 -3%

VietnamETF VNM 6/7/17 $14.64 $14.77 1%

Baidu BIDU 6/7/17 $187.53 $179.33 -4%

Transocean RIG 6/15/17 $8.56 $7.87 -8% PioneerNaturalResources PXD 6/15/17 $158.02 $154.75 -2%

Uranium URA 6/15/17 $12.76 $12.48 -2%

Cameco CCJ 6/15/17 $9.14 $9.11 0%

FreeportMcMoRan FCX 6/19/17 $11.53 $11.45 -1%

RioTinto RIO 6/19/17 $39.48 $38.71 -2%

USSteel X 6/19/17 $20.83 $21.07 1%

PeruETF EPU 6/22/17 $33.64 NEW BUY!

Chevron CVX 6/22/17 $104.45 NEW BUY! EnterpriseProductsPartners

EPD 6/22/17 $26.00 NEW BUY!

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POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT

PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,250.00 12% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $16.53 2%

GoldMinersETF** GDX 10/5/16 $22.45 $22.36 0% GoldMiningJuniorsETF*** GDXJ 10/5/16 $34.72 $33.61

1%

WheatonPreciousMetalsCorp WPM 10/5/16 $22.59 $19.93

-12%

NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $3.05 -21%

BarrickGold ABX 4/26/17 $16.92 $16.09 -5%

SilverMiningETF SIL 4/26/17 $34.44 $34.04 -1%

SilverStandard SSRI 4/26/17 $9.94 $9.72 -2%

FirstMajesticSilver AG 5/12/17 $8.70 $8.16 -6% RandgoldResources GOLD 5/12/17 $93.25 $89.72 -4%

PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO

Pricesasof6/22/17atmarket’sclose.Gainsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97**Averagepriceof$22.83and$22.07***Averagepriceof$37.52and$31.92

SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE

BUY PRICE

CURRENT PRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $28.77 -23% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $27.49 -28% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $139.98 -3% Apple(SHORT) AAPL 3/23/17 $140.92 $145.63 -3% Facebook FB 5/31/17 $151.63 $153.40 -1% Alphabet GOOGL 5/31/17 $987.72 $976.62 1%

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CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

CURRENTPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 $107.90 -1%

Pricesasof6/22/17atmarket’sclose.Gainsincludedividends

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POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

AmericanEagleOutfitters(SHORT) AEO 5/26/16 $15.36 1/31/17 $14.59 5%CliffsNatResources(FIRSTHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/13/17 $12.10 19%

Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 2/23/17 $5.93 21%Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 2/23/17 $8.69 8%CliffsNatResources(SECONDHALF) CLF 2/8/17 $10.15 2/23/17 $11.13 10%

Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 3/8/17 $81.28 -8% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 3/8/17 $27.83

9%

NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 3/8/17 $7.11 8%

EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 4/10/17 $39.20 7%

BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 4/10/17 $19.04 23%

UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 4/12/17 $15.90 9% Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 4/12/17 $11.48 7% CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 4/12/17 $14.51 15% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 4/12/17 $11.32

10%

RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.50 4/12/17 $74.14 4%

SilverMiners SIL 3/15/17 $35.81 4/12/17 $37.60 5%

USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.97 4/13/17 $29.42 8% CopperMinersETF(SHORT) COPX 3/23/17 $22.64 4/18/17 $21.02 7%

FinancialsETF(SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 4/26/17 $24.06 -2%

RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS

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RECENTLY CLOSED POSITIONS CONTINUED

POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE

BUYPRICE

SELLDATE

SELLPRICE

GAIN/ LOSS

PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 5/17/17 $34.775%

BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.53 5/17/17 $39.90 6%UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.35 5/17/17 $51.58 5%SolarEnergyETF TAN 4/19/17 $17.20 5/17/17 $18.00 5%RoyalGold RGLD 4/26/17 $69.92 5/17/17 $79.90 14% SouthwesternEnergy SWN 3/30/17 $8.15 5/24/17 $6.76 -17% GulfportEnergy GPOR 3/30/17 $17.17 5/24/17 $15.47 -10% USOilFund USO 4/26/17 $10.37 5/24/17 $10.60 2% ExxonMobil XOM 5/3/17 $82.70 5/24/17 $82.29 0% EnergyETF(SHORT) XLE 5/24/17 $67.56 6/5/17 $65.05 4% EmergingMktsBondETF EMB 11/21/16 $109.82 6/7/17 $115.95 8% LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 6/15/17 $126.10 5% NuveenEnhancedFreeMuniCreditFund NVG 1/2/14

$13.126/22/17 $15.22 40%