weekly market update 2-22-17phoenixcapitalmarketing.com/pwa2-22-17.pdf2017/02/22 · on november...
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Weekly Market Update 2-22-17
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Disclaimer: The informationcontainedon thisnewsletter is formarketingpurposesonly. Nothing contained in thisnewsletter isintendedtobe,norshallitbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutesandoffertobuyorsellanysecurityorinstrumentorparticipateinanyparticulartradingstrategy.Theinformationinthenewsletterisnotacompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvisedtoconsultwithyourbroker,investmentadvisororotherappropriatetaxorfinancialprofessionaltodeterminethesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisnewsletterconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingontheopinionorestimateandaresubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Thisinformationmaynotreflecteventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted, or may in the future execute, transactions in any of the securities or derivatives of any securities discussed on thisnewsletter. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance and is no guarantee of future results. SecuritiesproductsarenotFDICinsured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolveinvestmentrisk,includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.Phoenix Capital Research, OmniSans Publishing LLC and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability forinvestment decisions based upon, or the results obtained from, the information provided. Phoenix Capital Research is notresponsibleforthecontentofothernewsletterstowhichthisonemaybelinkedandreservestherighttoremovesuchlinks.OmniSansPublishingLLCandthePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoareregisteredtrademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.OmniSansPublishingLLC-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301
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FirstandforemostIwanttothankyouforyourpatience.Icaughtanastyviruslastweek.TheendresultwasavisittourgentcareWednesdaynightandbeinglaidoutfortheremainderoftheweek.Again,Iapologizefornotbeingabletopublishourusualweeklymarketupdatebecauseofthissituation.Havingsaidthat,itisnowclearthattheinvestmentworldhascompletelylostitsmindregardingtheUSeconomy.Let’swindbacktheclocks.OnNovember8th2016,DonaldTrumpwaselectedPresidentoftheUnitedStates.Thiseventtriggeredabullishbreakoutforstocks,whichhadbeeninalargeconsolidationperiodforTWO-YEARS.
What,precisely,changedonNovember8th?
Weekly Market Update 2-22-17
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Fundamentally,nothingchangedovernight.Trumpdidn’tpassanynewlawsonNovember9thunleashinganeconomicutopia.Indeed,hedidn’teventakeofficeuntilJanuary202017.SowhatdidchangeNovember8th?Themarket’sexpectationsconcerningtheUSeconomy’sfuture.ThoseexpectationsarethataTrumpPresidencywillsomehowigniteragingeconomicgrowthby:
1) Implementingmajorfiscalstimulusintheformofinfrastructurespending.
2) Implementingtaxreform.
3) RepealingObamacare.Long-term,alloftheseitemsare“onthetable.”Butthemarkethasgonecompletelyoverboardinitsreactiontothem.Let’stakealookateach.Regarding#1,currentlytheTrumpWhiteHousehasyettoactuallypresentaplan.Letthatsinkinforamoment.Themarkethaseruptedhigherbasedonhopeofafiscalstimulusplan…thathasn’tevenbeenformallypresentedyet.This,inofitself,tellsusthemarket’sreactionisoverdone,butlet’sdigdeeper.Priortotakingoffice,aroughoutlineofaninfrastructureplanwaswrittenbyfutureTrumpadministrationofficialssuggesting$1trillioninspendingtorepairroads,bridges,andotherpublicworks.TheplansuggestedthatTrumpwouldbeseekingprivateinvestorsfortheplanoffering$137billionintaxcreditsasincentives.That’sit.Sincethattime,adocumentwascircledtoUSGovernorswithalistofpotentialprojects(variousbridges,airportsandthelike)…butnoactualplanandnoactualprojectshaveformallybeenpresentedorauthorized.
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Sorightoffthebat,oneofthebiggesteconomicpromisesthemarketisexpectingisinfactlittlemorethanhype.ThisisnotacritiqueofTrump(noramIendorsinghimorhispolicies),it’sjustasimplefact…theexpectedfiscalstimuluspackagethatmadestockserupthigherhasyettomanifest.Untilanactualplanispresented,wehavenowayofknowingwhenorhowitwouldbeimplemented.ThebestestimateIcanarriveatisthatTrump’sinnercirclehasnumerousGoldmanSachsalumsandGoldman’sresearchteamhaswrittenthatTrump’sstimulus,ifanyiscoming,willhitin4Q17ifnotearly2018.Again,thisislargelyhyperightnow.Andthemarkethasgonebonkersonit.Regarding#2and#3(taxreformandanObamacareappeal),againtherearefewdetailsforthcoming.
SpeakerPaulRyan(R-Wis.)onWednesdaymappedouttheGOP’s200-daylegislativestrategy,sayingRepublicanswillrepealandreplaceportionsofObamaCarebyspringandtackletaxreformbeforetheAugustrecess.http://thehill.com/homenews/house/316156-ryan-maps-out-gop-time-line-for-obamacare-tax-reform
SoObamacaremightbepartiallyrepealedandreplacedby“spring”and“taxreform”shouldbeaddressedbeforeAugust8th.Thatthemarkethasgonestraightupbasedonthisisastounding…particularlywhenyouconsiderthatPaulRyanisonlyaddressingwhattheHouseofRepresentativeswoulddo(anyObamacarerepeal/taxreformbillspassedbytheHousewouldalsohavetopasstheSenateandthenbesignedbyTrump).AssumingtheusualploddingpaceofCongressionaldevelopments,thismeansthatattheearliestTrumpmightbesigningtaxreformandanObamacareRepealintolawattheendof2017/early2018.So…we’vegotthreemajorTrumpinitiatives,twoofwhichCongresshasannounceditwillworkon(taxreformandObamacareRepeal),oneofwhichremainsupintheair(fiscalstimulus),andnoneofwhichhaveafirmtimelineorfirmobjective.Again,allofthisishype.Thereareneitherconcretetimelinesnordetailsonanyoftheseitems.Thebestwe’vegotis
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PaulRyan’sclaim(whateverthatisworth)thatsomethingwillbedoneatsomepointbeforeAugust8th.Andyet…stocksaregoingstraightupbasedonexpectationsofthesethreepolicies!!!AsIstatedatthebeginningofthisupdate,theinvestmentworldhascompletelylostitsmindregardingtheUSeconomy.AnyonewhoisbuyingstockstodaybasedonexpectationsofTrumpeconomicpoliciesiseffectivelybuyinghypeandnothingelse.Iwanttostressagainthatnoneofmyanalysishereispoliticalinnature.IamNOTsayingIamanti-Trumpnorpro-Trump.AllI’msayingisthatthemarketisreactingtofantasy(therearenoactualplansinplacetoimplementfiscalstimulus,repealObamacare,orimplementtaxreform).Andyet,thisiswhatinducedthestockmarkettobreakouttonewall–timehighs,obtainingitsmostoverboughtstatus(dailyRSI)sincetheMarch’09bottom.
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Regardingthatlastpoint,theS&P500hasaDailyRSIreadingof80.Basedonthismetricthemarketismoreoverboughtthanatanypointsincethe2009bottom.Let’srunthisperiodoftimeoverinourheads.Thismeansthatbasedoneconomicfantasystocksarecurrentlymoreoverboughtthantheywere:
1) AftertheFedannounceda$1.25TRILLIONQEprogram(QE1),suspendedaccountingstandards,andeffectivelybackstoppedtheentirefinancialsystem(2009-2010).
2) AftertheFedannounceda$600billionQEprogram(QE2)inNovember2010.
3) AftertheFedannouncedanopen-ended(meaningthereisnotimelimit)QE3programinSeptember2012.
Putsimply,stockshavereactedmorestronglytoTrumpwinningthePresidency,thantheyhavetosixyearsofthemostprofligateFedmonetarypolicyinhistory.AsIstatedatthebeginningofthisupdate,theinvestmentworldhaslostitsmindconcerningtheUSeconomy.AnyeconomicimpactTrumpmighthavewilloccurthistimenextyearattheearliest.Everythingthatishappeningrightnowisbasedonexpectations.Meanwhile,theREALeconomyisrollingoverintorecession.Governmenttaxreceiptsisperhapsthesinglemostobjectiveeconomicmetricontheplanet.Iftheeconomyisgrowing,businessarebeingstarted,jobsarebeingcreated,andmorepeopleandentitiesareapayingtaxes.However,iftheeconomyISN’Tgrowing,thegrowthrateofthismetricquicklyrollsover.Withthatinmind,considerthattaxreceiptshaveturnednegative(YearoverYear)forthefirsttimesincethefinancialcrisis.Andasyou’llnote,thishasNEVERhappenedoutsideofarecessionin40+years.
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ThatbriefbounceoffthislinewasinducedbytheriseintaxescourtesyofObamacare.Thisbouncewillbeshort-livedaswe’reinamultiyeardowntrendhere(notetaxreceiptsPEAKEDin2010andhavebeentrendinglowereversince).Thisbearsclosewatching,particularlywhenyouconsiderthatweareseeingnumerouswarningsignsthatthecreditcycleisturningatatimewhenwehavereachedpeakmania(similartolate2007).Firstandforemost,thereareindicationsthatweareonceagaininahousingbubble.Homeflippingisback.
Thetrendofbuyingafixer-upper,makingsomerepairsand"flipping"toanewbuyerquicklyismakingareturntorealestatemarkets,yearsafterthetrendfelloutoffashionwithhomebuyers.Morethan6percentofhomesaleslastyearwere"flips",accordingtoanewreportfromTrulia.Therealestatedatawebsitedefinesaflipasthesellingofahomeatleasttwicewithinayear.
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That'sthehighestnumberinadecade,beforetherealestatebubbleburstandthefinancialcrisisof2008.Socouldthehousingmarketflipoutagain?
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/05/house-flipping-is-back-with-all-its-opportunities-and-risks.html
Thisishappeningatatimewhenhomeshavebecomeincreasinglyunaffordable.
Outsideofhousing,thereareclearsignsthatthecreditcycleisturning.Firstly,theyearoveryeardelinquenciesoncreditcardloanshasgonepositiveandisbackintorecessionaryterritory.
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Thesameistruefortheyearoveryeardelinquenciesonconsumerloans.
Autoloandelinquenciesarealsobeginningtospikerightastheindustryentersamassivebubble.
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First,delinquenciesamonglower-ratedborrowershaverisentothehighestlevelsince2009.Second,theamountofautoloansoutstandingisgrowingatthefastestpaceonrecordandnowaccountsforabiggerproportionoftotalU.S.householdliabilitiesinatleast14years.https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-02-21/deepening-troubles-with-auto-loans-start-to-spread-pain
ThosethreeitemsareinformingusthattheUSconsumerisclosetotappedout.Thisdoesn’tbodewellfortheUSeconomyasconsumerspendingaccountsfor70%ofGDP.MoreworrisomefromamacroperspectiveistheriseinYearoverYeardelinquenciesoncommercialrealestateloans:thismeansbusinessesarecommercialrealestatedevelopersarefallingbehindontheirpayments.ThisusuallyisassociatedwithadropinleasingbybusinessesORbusinessclosingupshop.Ifthislinegoesintothepositive,theUSeconomyisinVERYserioustrouble.
Similarly,thedelinquencyrateoncommercialandindustrialloansspikedupwardslastyear.Ithassincecomedown,butifitturnsbackupwardshereitwillbeanearperfectrepeatofthe
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samepatternwesawin2007-2008.
Putsimply,weHAVEtoholdthatlineorthecreditcycle/businesscyclehasindeedturned.ThiswouldmarkthefirstmoveintoCLEARcontractionsince2008.Movingontothemarkets,havingsaidallofthis,themoveintheS&P500lookscomplete.Thebreakouttotheupsidematchesthetradingrange.Wemighthaveafewmorepointsleft,butthismoveisDONE.
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Thevarious“leaders”areatlevelsofoverboughtI’verarelyseen.There’soverbought…andthenthere’sApple(AAPL).Arewebackin1999?
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Iwouldn’tshortthishere,butHOLYCOW,thatismaniainaction.USSteel(X),whichweareshorting,hasalsoerupted.ThisisperhapsthesinglebiggestexampleofTrumphypeinthemarketstoday(howcanweenteragoldenageofsteelwhentheeconomyisrollingover?).It’sstartingtolookatalotlikethe2014peak,afterwhichXfellby55%.Sowhilewe’redeepintheredhere,I’mnotconcerned.We’lleraseallofourpaperlossesandthensomewhenwemovedownto$20inthecomingweeks.
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I’vesaidthismanytimes,butIamrepeatingithere,keepALLshortsandmarkethedgesSMALL.TheseshouldNOTbecorepositionsforyourportfolio.Ifyouneedassistanceinpositionsizing,pleasereadourreportHowtoBuildaMarketBeatingPortfolioonthePrivateWealthAdvisorywebsite.Moreexamplesofmarketmania…OilhaseffectivelygonenowherefortwomonthsandyetIkeephearingthatit’s“breakingout”and“movingtonewhighs.”
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Similarly,Copper,thecommoditywithaPhDineconomics,isup1.1%sinceearlyDecember.IfGDPgrowthof5%andeconomicutopiaisjustaroundthecorner,shouldn’twebedoingbetterthanthis?
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ComparethistoCopper’sperformancein2005whentheglobaleconomywasroaring:itcamechargingoutthegateandneverlookedback.
Similarly,Copperminers(COPX)seemtohavegottenthememothatmiraclegrowthisnotjustaroundthecorner.
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Bigpicturestuff…The$USDisstagingabounceoffofsupport.Ibelieveit’sadeadcatbounceandwe’rebreakingdownintothatrangeshortly.
ThiswillignitegreaterralliesinEmergingMarketstocks.Ibelievewe’veenteredaperiodinwhichEmergingMarketswilloutperformUSstocks.OncewetakeoutthislinetheperiodofoutperformancebyUSstockswillbeofficiallyover.
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GoldhasbeguntobreakoutinYen(blueline)Euros(redline)andevenDollars(blackline)thoughthelatterislagging.Thenextmajorbullmarketforthepreciousmetalishereandwillbedrivenbyasurgeininflationglobally.IexpectGoldtobeabove$1340beforeJuneandonitswayto$1700within12months.
USTreasuriesareSERIOUSLYoverdueforastrongrallythatwillbringtheiryieldsmoreinlinewiththoseofGermanyandJapan.
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Finally,NaturalGas(UNG)lookstohavebottomed.
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We’redueforasharpbouncehereto$8andchange.ActiontoTake:BuytheNaturalgasETF(UNG)Thisconcludesthisweek’smarketupdate.I’mwatchingthemarketscloselyandwillissueupdatesasneeded.Barringanynewdevelopments,you’llnexthearfrommenextWednesdayinourlongermonthlyissueofPrivateWealthAdvisory.Untilthen…
GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch
BestRegards,
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OPEN POSITIONS
STOCKS PORTFOLIO
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon2/22/17.Gainsincludedividends
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Exxon XOM 9/24/14 $95.82 $80.93 -9% RPXCorp RPXC 8/5/15 $15.48 $11.33 -27%
Ambev ABEV 11/25/16 $4.96 $5.91 21%
Cemex CX 11/25/16 $8.07 $8.82 9% EnterpriseProductsPartners EPD 11/31/16 $25.93 $28.51
10%
PeruETF EPU 12/7/16 $33.23 $35.76 8%
UraniumETF URA 6/8/16 $15.49 $17.20 17%
Cameco CCJ 1/4/17 $10.69 $11.41 7%
CoalETF KOL 1/4/17 $12.59 $13.62 8% AgriculturalCommoditiesETF RJA 1/12/17 $6.46 $6.58
2%
EmergingmarketsETF EEM 1/12/17 $36.60 $38.93
6%
ChinaETF ASHR 2/1/17 $24.91 $25.50 2%
CliffsNatResources CLF 2/8/17 $9.52 $11.76 16%
BrazilETF EWZ 2/8/17 $37.58 $40.15 7%
UtilitiesETF XLU 2/8/17 $49.40 $50.30 2%
NaturalGasETF UNG 2/22/17 $6.57 NEW BUY!
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BONDS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
NuveenMuni.Fund NVG 1/2/14 $13.12 $14.49 32% EmergingMarketBonds EMB 11/21/16
$109.82$113.28 4%
LongUSTreasuries TLT 11/21/16 $121.05 $120.31 0%
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT
PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
Gold 3/17/10 $1,120 $1,237.00 10% Silver* 3/17/10 $16.23 $17.99 11%
GoldMinersETF GDX 10/5/16 $22.83 $24.33 7% GoldMiningJuniorsETF GDXJ 10/5/16 $37.52 $40.73
13%
SilverWheaton SLW 10/5/16 $22.59 $21.32 -5% SilverStandardResources SSRI 10/5/16 $10.30 $10.96
6%
BarrickGold ABX 10/5/16 $15.54 $19.87 28%
NewGold NGD 10/5/16 $3.88 $3.04 -22%
RoyalGold RGLD 2/8/17 $71.36 $68.83 -4%
PRECIOUS METALS/ MINERS PORTFOLIO
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon2/22/17atmarket’scloseReturnsincludedividends*Averagepriceof$17.50and$14.97
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SPECIAL SITUATIONS/HEDGES/SHORTS PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUY DATE
BUY PRICE
CURRENT PRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
FranceETF(SHORT) EWQ 9/16/16 $23.38 $25.04 -7% ItalyETF(SHORT) EWI 9/16/16 $21.56 $23.48 -9% Russell2000ETF(SHORT) IWM 12/14/16 $135.37 $139.58 -3% FinancialsETF(SHORT) XLF 12/21/16 $23.61 $24.61 -4% USSteel(SHORT) X 2/1/17 $31.33 $40.49 -27%
CASH/ CURRENCIES PORTFOLIO
POSITION SYMBOL BUYDATE
BUYPRICE
CURRENTPRICE
GAIN/ LOSS
EuroTrust FXE 10/5/16 $108.80 $102.50 -6%
Pricesasofmarket’scloseon2/22/17atmarket’sclosePriceincludedividends