weekly market revie · 2016-11-28 · gfk consumer sentiment indicator dipped to +1 in nov from +2...

Weekly Market Review November 22nd, 2015 – November 28th, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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US 3Q2015 GDP growth revised higher to 2.1% annual pace in 3Q2015 as compared to 1.5% reported earlier

Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.3% in Oct following a 0.4% gain in Sep

Consumer spending edged up 0.1% in Oct, same as in Sep while savings rose to highest since Dec 2012

S&P/Case Shiller composite price index of 20 metropolitan areas gained 5.5% YoY in Sep vs. 5.1% in Aug

Markit’s Eurozone flash composite PMI jumped to over four-year high of 54.4 in Nov from 53.9 in Oct

Ifo institute’s German business climate index climbed to the highest since Jun 2014 at 109 in Nov vs. 108.2 in Oct

Markit’s German composite PMI inched up to 54.9 in Nov from 54.2 in Oct, the highest since Aug 2015

GfK German consumer sentiment index slipped less than expected to 9.3 in Nov from 9.4 in Oct

French flash Markit composite output index slipped to 51.3 in Nov from 52.6 in Oct, partly affected by Paris attacks

British GDP advanced 0.5% QoQ and 2.3% YoY in 3Q2015, unrevised from the previously published estimate

GfK consumer sentiment indicator dipped to +1 in Nov from +2 in Oct vs. forecasts for it to hold steady

Greece’s GDP declined 0.9% QoQ in 3Q2015, a steeper fall than the earlier estimate of 0.5% contraction

Austrian economy grew 0.3% in 3Q2015, matching 2Q2015 helped by improved exports, trade and fixed capital inv.

Japan said it will raise minimum wage by 3.0% each year from next fiscal year to boost consumption and growth

Household spending dropped 2.4% YoY in Oct as against a market forecast of 0.1% increase

Markit/Nikkei flash manufacturing PMI edged up to a seasonally adjusted 52.8 in Nov from 52.4 in Oct

China said it plans to invest over $437bn to build more than 23,000 kilometers of railway lines over the next 5 years

Chinese industrial companies’ profit declined for the 5th consecutive month by 4.6% YoY in Oct

South Africa narrowly avoided recession as GDP rose an annualized 0.7% in 3Q2015 after shrinking 1.3% in 2Q2015

Australia lowered its estimate of economy’s potential growth over the next few years to 2.75% from 3.0%

Singapore’s economy expanded an annualized 1.9% in 3Q2015 following a 2.6% fall in 2Q2015, beating estimates

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

S&P 500 2,090.11 0.04 1.52 17.69 2.08

DJI 17,798.49 -0.14 -0.14 16.19 2.44

Nasdaq Comp 5,127.52 0.44 8.27 23.18 1.20

Euro Stoxx 600 383.67 0.49 12.01 16.47 3.35

FTSE 100 6,375.15 0.64 -2.91 15.97 4.14

Dax 11,293.76 1.56 15.18 13.85 2.63

CAC 40 4,930.14 0.39 15.39 16.08 3.03

Nikkei 225 19,883.94 0.02 13.94 19.20 1.63

Hang Seng 22,068.32 -3.02 -6.51 11.12 3.85

Brazil - Bovespa

45,872.91 -4.71 -8.27 13.01 4.05

Russia - Micex 1,795.70 -1.70 28.58 6.52 4.74

BSE Sensex 26,128.20 1.00 -4.99 17.57 1.46

Shanghai Comp 3,436.30 -5.35 6.23 14.70 1.80

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

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National Bank of Abu Dhabi (NBAD) has issued a $200mn floating rate note of two years duration

Drake & Scull Engineering secured two projects for a combined worth of AED131mn in Abu Dhabi and Dubai

Essa Al Ghurair Investment said it may bid for flour mills that Saudi Arabia is preparing to sell to private investors

US’ PE firms Warburg Pincus & General Atlantic acquired a 49% stake in Network International from Abraaj Group

Essa al-Ghurair said he plans 30% stake sale in healthcare business in 3 yrs. to fund his company’s Africa expansion

Dubai Investments has invested 90% of total project cost to build Austria’s MODUL University 1st campus in Dubai

Nakheel signed a management agreement with Starwood Hotels & Resorts to operate St Regis hotel in Dubai

Abu Dhabi National Energy Co. has filed with US regulators to sell its 50% stake in Lakefield wind power plant

Arab Petroleum Investments Corp. said it will issue $1bn Sukuk in 2016, may issue another $1.7bn in 2017

Alwaha Petrochem. signed a SAR262.5mn working capital financing agreement with Saudi Fund for Development

Advanced Petrochemical Company recommended distribution of 7.5% dividend, totaling SAR123mn for 4Q2015

Saudi Capital Market Authority said Alandalus Property will launch an initial public offering in mid-December 2015

Yamama Cement signed a SR4.2bn deal with ThyssenKrupp Industrial Solutions to build two new cement plants

PT Pertamina inked a deal with Saudi Aramco for the operation and upgrade of Cilacap Refinery in Indonesia

Moody's Investors Service upgraded Kuwait’s Gulf Bank long-term deposit ratings to A3 from Baa1

ORPIC said it has finalized negotiations for $4.5bn contracts with preferred bidders to build a plastics complex

Oman’s largest paint factory, set up by Berger Paints in Sohar, will be officially inaugurated in December 2015

Nama Group signed nine contracts worth OMR159mn during the recently held Business Opportunity Forum

Qatar’s Mannai Corp. is in talks to buy 51% stake in European Gifi Informatique at €8.5/share, amounting ~€561mn

Bahrain-based Nogaholding is seeking a $350mn 5-year Islamic loan for general business purposes

Gulf Aluminum Rolling Mill has signed a new gas supply agreement with Bahrain Petroleum Company

Last Close 5 Day % YTD % P/E (2015) *Div. Yield

Dubai 3,204.11 -2.11 -15.10 12.87 7.78

Abu Dhabi 4,219.86 -0.94 -6.82 9.13 5.81

Saudi Tadawul 7,238.56 2.91 -13.14 14.20 3.53

Qatar Index 10,522.21 -3.11 -14.35 12.50 4.85

Kuwait Index 5,794.64 1.21 -11.34 − 4.47

Oman MSM 30 5,668.40 -2.20 -10.64 10.44 4.59

Bahrain All Share

1,232.76 1.11 -13.59 7.38 5.56

Egypt EGX 30 6,427.82 -2.15 -27.99 10.12 2.15

Istanbul 100 Index

75,638.43 -6.25 -11.76 10.19 3.26

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking; *Current

DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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The US dollar advanced this week, sending the USD index up ~0.5% as speculation the Swiss National Bank would follow the European Central Bank in cutting deposit rates further pushed major competitors lower

Brazil’s real depreciated 3.8% against the US dollar in the week ended Nov 27 as the arrest of a ruling-party senator this week threatened to sidetrack President Dilma Rousseff’s economic agenda

Russian ruble weakened 2.6% this week against the US dollar amid tension over the downing of a Russian war jet by Turkey on Nov 24, as well as continued weakness in crude oil prices

Canadian dollar inched down ~0.2% in the week against a broadly firmer greenback amid fresh volatility in Chinese stocks and as Canadian produces prices fell for a 3rd month in a row by 0.5% in Oct, a bigger drop than expected

Indian rupee ended the week declining 0.85% with respect to the US dollar as foreign institutional investors (FIIs) continued to liquidate their investment in the local equity and debt market

Malaysian ringgit firmed 0.7% to 4.2535 per US dollar from Nov 20 spurred by a two-week rally in Brent crude, adding to improving sentiment for the net oil exporter as a debt-ridden state investment company sells its assets

South Korean won appreciated 0.1% to 1,153 per US dollar during the past five days on speculation exporters sold dollars as they booked overseas earnings before month-end

Last Close 5 Day % 1 Mth. % YTD % 1 Year %

USD Index 100.0200 0.46 3.21 10.80 14.17

EUR/USD 1.0593 -0.50 -4.14 -12.44 -15.03

GBP/USD 1.5036 -1.02 -1.73 -3.47 -4.45

USD/JPY 122.8000 -0.01 1.94 2.52 4.32

USD/CHF 1.0302 1.18 4.45 3.61 6.86

USD/CAD 1.3371 0.19 0.77 15.06 18.00

USD/BRL 3.8466 3.80 -1.08 44.74 51.97

USD/RUB 66.4287 2.61 1.92 9.37 36.73

USD/INR 66.7575 0.85 2.76 5.89 7.89

USD/CNY 6.3944 0.15 0.66 3.04 4.17

USD/AUD 1.3902 0.63 -0.01 13.59 18.82

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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WTI crude futures climbed ~3.3% during the week as Baker Hughes rig count fell by 9 to 555 this week. The corresponding figure at the same time of last year was 1,500

Spot gold prices declined for the sixth straight week by 1.9%, pressured from a stronger US dollar and prospects of a US interest rate increase in Dec 2015

Tokyo commodity exchange (TOCOM) rubber futures surged ~13.1% in the week, aided by a sharp rise in Shanghai rubber as well as aggressive buying from funds to unwind their short positions

The London Metals Exchange (LME) tin futures rose 2.4% from Nov 20 on speculation that Chinese miners are getting serious about production cuts and Beijing may start stockpiling metals to make the most of low prices

The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) cotton futures firmed up 1.7% during the past five days, bolstered by forecasts of freezing rains for key areas of Texas, the top-producing US state

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) wheat futures dropped ~5.1% this week after a US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report showed export sales of the grain were at the low end of analyst estimates

The ICE sugar futures edged up 0.1% in the week ended Nov 27 despite a weakening Brazilian currency on talks of wet weather hampering harvesting in Brazil and lower-than-expected output in India


Brent – ICE 44.86 0.45 -4.17 -21.75 -38.19

WTI – Nymex 41.71 3.27 -3.45 -21.70 -43.40

Gold Spot 1,057.41 -1.90 -9.38 -10.76 -11.22

Silver Spot 14.10 -0.58 -11.22 -10.21 -13.23

Copper - CMX 205.05 -0.22 -13.19 -27.43 -30.73

S&P GSCI Spot Index

337.29 -0.13 -3.97 -19.33 -34.50

Baltic Dry Index 581.00 16.67 -21.38 -25.70 -51.05

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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The US 10-year bond gained and yield fell 4.2 basis points (bps) to a three-week low of 2.22% after a selloff in China’s stock markets boosted demand for safe haven assets

Eurozone government bonds advanced this week, sending benchmark yields down as investors’ speculation intensified that the European Central Bank will boost stimulus in Dec 2015. German 10-year bund yield slipped 1.9 bps to 0.46%, French 10-year yield fell 4.3 bps to 0.77% while Italy’s 10-year yield slid 9.2 bps to 1.40%

China’s primary money market rates ended the week on a mixed note as ample liquidity mitigated upward pressure in yields that came from the resumption of stock market listings. The one-day or overnight rate stood at 1.7722% and the 14-day repo stood at 2.6815%, respectively flat and up six bps on the week

Brazil’s central bank kept its benchmark Selic rate at 14.25% for the third straight meeting on Nov 25 as expected in a move to avoid further damage to an ailing economy, despite a surge in inflation

The central bank of the six-nation Central African CEMAC zone maintained the region’s main interest rate at 2.45% on Nov 27 and trimmed the 2015 growth forecast to 2.5% from 2.8%. The CEMAC zone includes Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of Congo, Gabon and Equatorial Guinea

Nigeria’s central bank surprisingly cut its benchmark interest rate to 11% from 13% on Nov 24, its first reduction in the cost of borrowing in more than six years in an effort to stimulate growth in Africa’s biggest economy


USD-10yr 2.22 -1.87 8.99 2.25 -1.10

USD-2yr 0.92 0.14 47.93 38.22 78.11

Fed Funds Rate 0.12 0.00 0.00 100.00 20.00

USD-3m Libor 0.41 7.75 27.11 61.07 76.24

USD-6m Libor 0.65 5.86 22.49 80.51 100.61

German-10yr 0.46 -3.97 3.84 -14.97 -34.29

UK-10yr 1.82 -3.09 3.01 3.42 -5.56

Japan-10yr 0.30 -5.96 -0.33 -6.83 -28.91

AED-3m EIBOR 0.92 4.41 8.20 35.82 34.40

AED-6m EIBOR 1.05 2.39 5.34 24.77 23.72

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Argentina -7.11% -7.20%

2 Turkey -6.25% -9.34%

3 China -5.35% -5.49%

4 Brazil -4.71% -8.20%

5 Poland -4.25% -5.49%

6 Colombia -4.06% -5.38%

7 Russia -3.61% -3.61%

8 Vietnam -3.57% -3.62%

9 Chile -3.27% -3.40%

10 Qatar -3.11% -3.12%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Slovakia 3.51% 2.99%

2 Saudi Arabia 2.91% 2.82%

3 Serbia 2.67% 1.56%

4 Hungary 2.54% 1.70%

5 Lebanon 2.52% 2.52%

6 Venezuela 2.00% 2.00%

7 South Korea 1.97% 2.08%

8 Italy 1.96% 1.46%

9 Ukraine 1.72% 4.31%

10 Germany 1.56% 1.06%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 235.73% 235.73%

2 Jamaica 75.78% 69.94%

3 Argentina 53.46% 34.28%

4 Latvia 44.42% 26.45%

5 Hungary 42.56% 26.72%

6 Slovakia 38.12% 20.94%

7 Malta 34.50% 17.76%

8 Denmark 34.47% 17.52%

9 Ireland 30.13% 13.94%

10 Italy 18.74% 3.97%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Peru -30.90% -38.96%

2 Ukraine -30.86% -53.49%

3 Egypt -27.99% -34.21%

4 Colombia -27.76% -44.73%

5 Greece -21.35% -31.13%

6 Nigeria -20.31% -26.56%

7 Cyprus -18.89% -28.98%

8 Poland -16.40% -26.53%

9 Bulgaria -16.15% -26.58%

10 Mongolia -15.30% -19.62%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Feeder Cattle -5.25%

2 Orange Juice -5.20%

3 Wheat -5.09%

4 Natural Gas -2.81%

5 Platinum -2.19%

6 Palladium -2.19%

7 Gold -1.90%

8 Cocoa -1.72%

9 Gasoil -1.53%

10 Bean Meal -1.47%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Rubber 13.09%

2 Gasoline 7.97%

3 Lean Hogs 6.00%

4 Soybean Oil 4.36%

5 WTI Crude 3.27%

6 Natural Gas 3.12%

7 Tin 2.42%

8 Cotton 1.71%

9 Lumber 1.69%

10 Soybeans 1.51%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Cocoa 13.68%

2 Rough Rice 4.05%

3 Cotton 3.92%

4 Sugar 3.10%

5 Orange Juice 2.25%

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7

8

9

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YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Nickel -42.08%

2 Steel Rebar -33.45%

3 Palladium -30.90%

4 Platinum -30.82%

5 Zinc -28.88%

6 Lean Hogs -27.68%

7 Copper -27.43%

8 Coffee -27.37%

9 Heat Oil -26.76%

10 Lumber -25.28%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market revie · 2016-11-28 · gfk consumer sentiment indicator dipped to +1 in nov from +2...

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