weekly credit update - microsoft · 2016-06-14 · 14 june 2016 weekly credit update ... points...

14 June 2016

Weekly Credit Update

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 36 of this report

AnalystsMads Rosendal+45 45 14 88 [email protected]

Katrine Jensen+45 45 12 80 [email protected]

Investment Researchwww.danskebank.com/CI

This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors.

22

- General credit market news and current themes

- Credit indicators

- Scandi investment grade

Contents

- Coverage universe, credit ratings and recommendations

- Scandi high yield

33

What’s on our minds- General credit market news

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets (both charts)

• Last week began with strong risk sentiment but renewed fears of a Brexit sent stocks into the red and credit indices wider towards the end of the week. Overall Itraxx Europe and Xover widened 4bp and 10bp respectively.

• With opinion polls f luctuating leading up to the UK referendum we expect volatility to remain high over the coming weeks. The VIX index underlined this, moving up more than 4 percentage points during the week, ending at around 18% (the highest level since August 2015). The ensuing flight to safety pushed down yields on government bonds, with the German 10-year beating the record lows of April 2015.

• Aside from the UK referendum eyes will also be on the upcoming FED meeting on 15 June, but most market participants expect Janet Yellen to adopt a wait-and-see approach following two weak job reports. Currently, implied probabilities point to a hike in September or sometime thereafter.

• Despite somewhat shifting risk sentiment many issuers, both Nordic and European, took advantage of the strong sentiment at the beginning of last week. The Nordic HY segment was especially active on the primary side with familiar names such as Outokumpu, Com Hem, Victoria Park, Color Line, Stora Enso and Stolt Nielsen coming to the markets. All deals were well supported and in some cases significantly oversubscribed.

44

Sweden’s utility policy turns more benign- Implications for Nordic utilities

• A broad coalition in the Swedish parliament has agreed on a new long-term energy policy. Key elementsinclude the decision to abandon the previous target of phasing out nuclear energy. The rather steep taxon nuclear will be scrapped and the tax on hydro capacity will be significantly reduced.

• While the new policy also entails some additional burdens for the nuclear industry, the overallimpression is that this is clearly positive for utilities with nuclear and hydro generation in Sweden. Thisincludes Vattenfall (MW) and Fortum (UW). We see rating pressure easing on both companies as aresult of this more benign than expected new energy policy. In an effort to make all electricity generationrenewable by 2040, Sweden will also prolong its current green certificate subsidy scheme from 2020to 2030. The prospect for more nuclear and renewable capacity in the longer term, will, all things equal,lead to higher power supply, and therefore weigh slightly on long-term power prices compared to beforethis new policy.

Credit impact

• The relaxation of both hydro and nuclear taxes in Sweden is clearly credit positive for both Fortum andVattenfall, as the tax cut is more extensive than the market had expected. We also note that bothMoody’s and S&P’s f lagged tax cuts as important if the current ratings are to be maintained (Vattenfall:A3/NO; BBB+/NO, Fortum: Baa1/S; BBB+/S). The negative impact from higher nuclear accidentinsurance and the risk of higher provisions for nuclear dismantling and waste are minor compared tothe benefits of the tax cuts. Overall we see the risk of a downgrade to Vattenfall as somewhat reducedfollowing this.

• The new policy will not do anything to curb large investments in new renewable and nuclear capacity inan already oversupplied Nordic power market. This will, all things equal, weigh slightly on longer-termpower prices, which is a negative for all Nordic utilities.

• For more details see: Sweden’s utility policy turns more benign,13 June 2016.

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/CreditUpdateNordicUtilities130616/$file/CreditUpdate_NordicUtilities_130616.pdf

55

Scandi high yield

Relative value (EUR), indicative mid spreads (Chart 1) Credit spread development (Chart 2)

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets

Key arguments for the trade

• Large spread to the ‘BBB-’ industrial curve and EUR

bonds. The USD-denominated NOKIA 2019s are trading at a good pick-up relative to both the EUR-denominated NOKIA 2019s as well as the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve.

• The indicative spread between the USD- and EUR-denominated Nokia 2019s is c.20 basis points for a three-month maturity extension when adjusting for both bid-ask and cross currency (see chart 1).

• History suggests that the spread differential between the two bonds will tighten over time (see chart 2).

Buy NOKIA 2019 USD, trading at wide margin to Nokia 2019 EUR

• Potential further upside from IG status. Nokia is likely to be investment grade over the medium term. S&P recently affirmed the positive outlook on Nokia’s ‘BB+’ rating stating potential for an upgrade to ‘BBB-’ within 6-12 months, barring a successful integration with Alcatel and performance in line with peers. So far, both criteria have been met and Nokia recently upgraded its expectation for synergies arising from the ALU merger.

• See Credit Update: Nokia – Decent margins but outlook

still soft, 11 May 2016.

• See Trade idea: Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019 outright

or fund by selling Nokia EUR 6.75% 2019, 23 May 2016


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

May-2015

Jun-2015

Jul-2015

Aug-2015

Sep-2015

Oct-2015

Nov-2015

Dec-2015

Jan-2016

Feb-2016

Mar-2016

Apr-2016

ASW Issue Currency

NOKIA USD 5.375% 2019 NOKIA EUR 6.75% 2019

NOKIA (Ba2/BB+)

6.75% '19 (EUR) (bid)

NOKIA (Ba2/BB+)

5.375% '19 (USD) (ask)

ERICB (Baa1/BBB+) 4.125% '22 (USD) (mid)

Industrials BBB

Industrials BBB+

Industrials BBB-

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Spread (EUR)*

YTW**

* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worstNote: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European issuers

Published on 23 May 2016

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/CreditUpdateNokiaQ116110516/$file/CreditUpdate_Nokia_Q116_110516.pdf

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/NokiaTradeIdea230516/$file/Nokia_Trade_Idea_230516.pdf

77

Recent trade ideas (high yield)

Source: Danske Bank Markets

See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations.

Type Trade Idea

Opened 23 May 2016

Opened 23 May 2016

Opened 14 Mar 2016

Opened 07 Mar 2016

Opened 17 Feb 2016

Opened 14 Jan 2016

Opened 13 Jan 2016

Opened 07 Dec 2015

Outright Buy SSAB EUR2019 The SSAB EUR2019 currently trades at very attractive levels compared to other outstanding SSAB bonds and compared to the current BB- rating from S&P

Outright Buy Stena EUR2017 Attractive valuation 2017 bond. We remain underweight all other Stena bonds

Outright Buy Norwegian Air Shuttle

EUR2019

The Norwegian Air Shuttle EUR2019 currently trades at very attractive levels compared to other outstanding NAS bonds and compared to our B+/NO shadow rating.

Outright Buy Tallink NOK 2018 FRN Trading at an attractive spread following recent widening

Outright Buy Nynas FRN 2018 (SEK) Current metrics position Nynas' shadow rating closer to BB- than B+, making the 18's look very cheap relative to the B+ fair value curve

Outright Sell Stena 6.125% 2017 (EUR) Valuation no longer attractive after strong performance

Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019

outright and fund by selling Nokia

EUR 6.75% 2019

The USD denominated NOKIA 2019’s trade with a good pickup relative to both the EUR denominated NOKIA 2019’s as well as the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve

Outright Buy Nokia USD 5.375% 2019 The USD denominated NOKIA 2019’s trade with a good pickup relative to both the EUR denominated NOKIA 2019’s as well as the ‘BBB-’ industrials curve

Switch

88

Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)- High yield


1 month in local currencies YTD in local currencies

29,170

8,299

6,585

5,002

4,802

3,726

3,139

2,856

2,378

2,317

-105

-112

-113

-125

-143

-146

-166

-229

-282

-458

-50005000150002500035000

Prosafe SE NOK 2017

Farstad Shipping ASA NOK 2017

Prosafe SE NOK 2018

Prosafe SE NOK 2019

Prosafe SE NOK 2020

Olympic Ship AS NOK 2017

Golden Close Maritime Corp Ltd USD…


Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

Hoegh LNG Holdings Ltd NOK 2017

SSAB AB SEK 2019

Odfjell SE NOK 2018

Outokumpu OYJ EUR 2019

Color Group AS NOK 2017

Hoist Kredit AB EUR 2017

SSAB AB EUR 2019

Odfjell SE NOK 2017

Teekay Offshore Partners LP/Teekay…

Fred Olsen Energy ASA NOK 2019

Change in local currencies (bp)

18,528

3,036

2,933

2,347

2,324

1,595

1,424

960

595

467

-119

-247

-261

-262

-476

-556

-559

-586

-715

-783

-500005000100001500020000

Prosafe SE NOK 2017


Prosafe SE NOK 2018

Prosafe SE NOK 2020

Prosafe SE NOK 2019



North Atlantic Drilling Ltd USD 2019


Solstad Offshore ASA NOK 2019

Seadrill Ltd NOK 2018

Seadrill Ltd USD 2020

J Lauritzen A/S NOK 2017

BW Offshore Ltd NOK 2020

North Atlantic Drilling Ltd NOK 2018

Seadrill Ltd SEK 2019

Teekay Offshore Partners LP NOK 2017



Seadrill Ltd USD 2017


99

Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all tables and charts]

Danske Bank Markets Nordic High-Yield Index

Index sector breakdownKey index statistics

Basic Materials

12%

Communications

8%

Consumer, non-cycli.

10%

Energy12%

Diversified

5%

Industrial20%

Consumer, Cyclical

9%

Utilities7%

Real estate13%

Technology

2%

• We saw a widening in the iTraxx Crossover during last week of some 6bp. At the time of the deadline for this publication iTraxx Crossover traded around 335bp.

• The credit spread (ASW) on our DBM High-Yield Index showed a tightening of 9bp during the past week (ending Friday).

• Last week was a very active week on the primary Scandi HY market with new issues aggregating some EUR1.1bn in total. We saw transactions from Stora Enso, Com Hem (Norcell Sweden), Victoria Park, Color Group, Pioneer Public Properties and Stolt-Nielsen (tap issuance).

300325350375400425450475500525550575600625

94.0

96.0

98.0

100.0

102.0

104.0

106.0

Dec/2014 May/2015 Oct/2015 Mar/2016

DBM Hedged EUR Nordic HY Index Value

DBM Nordic HY Index, ASW-spread (bps). RHS

Index start Index end Change

Date 31/Dec/2014 10/Jun/2016

Yield 4.6%

ASW spread, bps 430 469 39

# Bonds 106

AVG credit rating BB

Avg duration 2.8

TR since start 4.9%

TR YTD 3.5%

TR MTD 0.7%

1010

Recent Nordic high-yield issuance*


*Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)

Selected new issues (High Yield)

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

10/06/2016 Pioneer Public Propertie NIBOR3M +525bps NOK 1 000 m May/21 / / 525

10/06/2016 Color Group Asa NIBOR3M +475bps NOK 500 m Dec/20 / / 475

09/06/2016 Victoria Park Ab STIB3M +450bps SEK 600 m Jun/20 / / 450

09/06/2016 Outokumpu Oyj 7.25% EUR 250 m Jun/21 / (P)B2 / 740

08/06/2016 Norcell Sweden Holding 3 3.625% SEK 1 750 m Jun/21 BB / Ba3 / 350

07/06/2016 Stora Enso Oyj 2.125% EUR 300 m Jun/23 BB / Ba2 / WD 200

30/05/2016 Sodra Skogsagarna STIB3M +160bps SEK 1 000 m Jun/21 / / 160

25/05/2016 Klovern Ab STIB3M +415bps SEK 750 m Jun/20 / / 415

25/05/2016 Hoist Kredit Ab 3.125% EUR 250 m Dec/19 / Ba1 / 322

20/05/2016 Stromma Turism & Sjofart STIB3M +590bps SEK 300 m May/21 / / 590

19/05/2016 Sanoma Oyj 3.5% EUR 200 m Nov/19 / / 399

19/05/2016 Opus Group Ab STIB3M +475bps SEK 500 m May/21 / / 475

17/05/2016 Aspo Oyj (Hybrid) 6.75% EUR 25 m PERP / / 500

11/05/2016 Corem Property Grp Ab STIB3M +475bps SEK 300 m Nov/19 / / 475

11/05/2016 Volvo Car Ab 3.25% EUR 500 m May/21 BB / Ba3 / 363

10/05/2016 Sbab Bank Ab (AT1) 5.052% SEK 775 m PERP BB+ / Ba2 / 475

10/05/2016 Sbab Bank Ab (AT1) STIB3M +475bps SEK 725 m PERP BB+ / Ba2 / 475

29/04/2016 Ssm Holding Ab STIB3M +800bps SEK 400 m May/20 / / 800

29/04/2016 Corral Petroleum Holding 12.25% SEK 500 m May/21 B / / B 1256

29/04/2016 Corral Petroleum Holding 11.75% EUR 570 m May/21 B / / B 1244

22/04/2016 Magnolia Bostad Ab STIB3M +625bps SEK 600 m Apr/20 / / 625

15/04/2016 Millicom Intl Cellular STIB3M +330bps SEK 2 000 m Apr/19 / Ba1 / BB+ 330

14/04/2016 D Carnegie & Co Ab STIB3M +400bps SEK 1 000 m Apr/19 / / 400

17/03/2016 Outotec Oyj (Hybrid) 7.375% EUR 150 m PERP / / 1233

16/03/2016 Srv Yhtiot Oyj 6.875% EUR 100 m Mar/21 / / 680

14/03/2016 Alm Equity Ab STIB3M +675bps SEK 325 m Mar/20 / / 675

1111

Company news from the past week (high yield)


Name News Implication

SAS

For the first time since Q1 15 (3M 31 January 2015), reported net profit fell y/y, despite the tailwind from lower fuel costs. This raises the focus on continued price pressure in Scandinavia – supported by continued capacity additions from aggressive low-cost carriers. This said, we note adjusted net debt to LTM EBITDA is relatively low at 2.2x and SAS has a solid cash and cash equivalent position. Our main concern continues to be aggressive capacity additions, which could turn into renewed fierce price competition and lower operating margins. We believe the SAS 2017 bond continues to offer attractive value, with a yield-to-worst of 2.7%.

Credit neutral

Stena

Last week, Moody's downgraded Stena's credit ratings by one notch. The corporate credit rating was reduced to B1 and the unsecured bond rating was reduced to B3. At the same time, Moody's changed the outlook from negative to stable. Moody's rating action was milder than feared by us. We saw a significant risk of a downgrade to Caa1, i.e. a two-notch downgrade. The background for the downgrade is that Moody's expects 'the company's financial profile will be materially affected when its offshore drilling contracts expire in 2016 and 2017'. We highlight that given the highly worrying outlook for the oil drilling sector (and the significant negative impact on the group) we also expect S&P to lower the current 'BB' rating at some point in the remainder of 2016. As we have highlighted in earlier credit updates, there is a viable risk that Stena will experience significantly declining credit metrics over coming years in the absence of any mitigating asset sales (not budgeted) or capital injections (not expected). If our base case budgets materialise, our measure of Stena's leverage is set to increase to 'distressed' levels around 10x towards the end of 2017. In the rating comment from Moody's we highlight a puzzling thing. Moody's states that it would consider downgrading the rating further if 'the company's consolidated debt/EBITDA increases above 7.0x, when its rig contracts expire, for a prolonged period of time.' According to Moody's this ratio stood at 5.5x at end-2015. When we calculate the similar leverage ratio we reach some 7.5x for 2015, a level significantly above Moody's threshold for a one-notch further downgrade. In this light, we find Moody's stable outlook puzzling. In turn, this must mean that we calculate the leverage numbers differently and we do it more conservatively than Moody's. We highlight that we exclude one-off/non-cash types of items such as rig termination payments from our underlying EBITDA calculation and include off-balance sheet capex commitments relating to the future purchase of vessels in our adjusted debt figures. We understand that Moody´s does not perform these adjustments. To cut things short, we think the current 'real' underlying leverage in Stena is higher than estimated by Moody's and closer to our estimate (>7x) as (1) one-off, non-cash rig termination accrued income clearly cannot be relied upon for future debt-servicing and (2) we consider off-balance capex commitments to be a real (debt-like) obligation ranking on par with senior unsecured debt as such items have to be financed at some point.

Credit negative

1212




Seadrill

SDRL announced that it has entered into a new privately negotiated debt-to-equity conversion, where USD50m par value of the 2017 bond will be converted into 7.5m shares, implying a bond recovery of approx. 56% based on Wednesday's close of USD 3.75/s (vs. current bond pricing of 51/53). The terms are essentially the same as in the initial debt-to-equity conversion in late May of USD55m of par value (into 8.2m shares). A combined USD105m of the USD1bn 2017 bond now converted to equity is still a small step in the total puzzle, where terms are still fairly attractive in our view for the current equity, with a limited implied premium to the current trading of the 2017 bond. If the entire 2017 bond was converted at same terms, current equity owners would retain approx. 78% of the share capital and bondholders get 22%, which would be a very small dilution. We still believe that future conversions will be more difficult and expensive (i.e. dilutive for the current equity) than these terms.

Credit positive

Com Hem

Acquires Swedish pay TV operator Boxer for SEK1.33bn. Boxer will add an EBITDA of about SEK300m and a SDU (single dwelling unit) subscriber base of some 500,000 customers. Com Hem seems to have paid a fairly low price for this asset at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 4.4x, this should also ensure that leverage does not increase much from this transaction. According to our calculations adj. leverage will rise from 3.7x to 3.8x i.e. not enough to in any way threaten the current 'BB'/S rating from S&P's in our view. According to Com Hem the transaction will be financed using a new three year SEK800m credit facility and existing credit facilities. Capex is expected to increase slightly over the current forecast of SEK1-1.1bn. Com Hem remains committed to its current leverage target of 3.5x-4.0x on the back of this deal. Overall we consider this positive given the relatively minor increase in leverage and the low multiple paid for the asset.

Credit positive

Finnair

Finnair (BB+; Hybrid: B) has released traffic figures for May. Passenger traffic increased by 9% on the back of 12% growth in capacity y/y. Capacity is added both on Asian and US routes. No info on price development. Overall as expected for Finnair and neutral for spreads.

Credit neutral

SAS

SAS (B-) has released traffic figures for May that show growth in passenger traffic of 11% y/y on the back of capacity expansion of 9.5% y/y. Average ticket prices have declined by 6% y/y (curr. adj.) -according to SAS due to high market capacity growth and lower jet fuel prices y/y. Overall a neutral set of traffic figures from SAS. The rising oil/jet fuel price could have a negative impact on sentiment for the whole airline sector. But remember SAS has hedged 73% of expected consumption for the next 12 months. vs. NAS 50%.

Credit neutral

1313




Stora Enso

Stora Enso (UW): S&P has commented on Stora Enso's recently announced mill divestments in Kabel Germany and in Suzhou China. In total the disposals should generate some EUR263m in cash proceeds while reducing sales by some EUR426. Positively the divested mills did not generate much in terms of profit i.e. margins should be improved. Still S&P expects most of the proceeds to be used for new growth projects and as such the reduction in leverage will be limited. Overall the statement from S&P is not too surprising given the size of the divestments and this will be neutral for the credit.

Credit neutral

1414

Scandi investment grade

Relative value (EUR), indicative mid spreads Credit spread development


Key arguments for the trade

• We recommend to buy the EUR2021 outright as it is trading wider than the ”BBB-” industrial curve compared to Maersk’s current ”BBB+ / NO” rating by S&P.

• We would also recommend a switch between the EUR 2021 (buy) and the EUR 2019 (sell). The pick-up is c. 40bp for around 1.5 years of maturity extension.

• We believe Maersk is committed to keeping financial ratios commensurate with a ”strong investment grade credit rating” as defined in the company’s financial policy. We believe this will limit the size of potential acquisitions.

Trade idea – A.P. Moller - Maersk

• Historically, Maersk has kept reported net debt to EBITDA within 0.5-2.0x. When the financial crisis hit in 2009, Maersk sold treasury shares to keep the leverage within that range. We believe this shows a prudent capital policy.

• A reported net debt to EBITDA at the top end of the historical leverage range (2.0x) corresponds to adj. debt to EBITDA of around 2.5x, which is the maximum level set out by S&P for the current ”BBB+” rating.

• We believe that increased idling of container vessels will start to support container freight rates and Maersk Line earnings in H2 16 and going into 2017. We believe this will ease the market’s fear of significant higher leverage.

• See Trade idea: A.P.Moller-Maersk EUR 2021, 3 June 2016


MAERSK (Baa1/BBB+)

4.375% '17 (EUR)

MAERSK (Baa1/BBB+)

3.375% '19 (EUR)

MAERSK (Baa1/BBB+)

1.75% '21 (EUR)

MAERSK (Baa1/BBB+) 1.5%

'22 (EUR)

Industrials BBB+

Industrials BBB

Industrials BBB-

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Mid Spread (EUR)*

YTW**

* Z-spreads. Discount margin for floaters. Swapped to indicated currency. ** Years-to-worstNote: Fair value curve(s) based on Danske Bank Markets' (mid) peer group of European

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Mar-2016 Apr-2016 Apr-2016 May-2016 May-2016 May-2016

ASW Issue Currency

MAERSK EUR 1.75% 2021 MAERSK EUR 3.375% 2019

MAERSK EUR 1.5% 2022 MAERSK EUR 4.375% 2017

Published on 3 June 2016

http://danskeanalyse.danskebank.dk/abo/APMMTradeRecommendation030616/$file/APMM_TradeRecommendation_030616.pdf

1616

Recent trade ideas (investment grade)


See the end of this document for a list of our coverage including shadow ratings and recommendations

Type Trade Idea

Opened 03 Jun 2016

Opened 03 Jun 2016

Opened 27 May 2016

Opened 27 May 2016

Opened 02 May 2016

Opened 18 Apr 2016

Opened 29 Mar 2016

Opened 29 Feb 2016

Buy Maersk EUR 2021 Maersk EUR 2021 is trading wider than the BBB- industrial curve vs. Maersks BBB+/NO rating.

Outright Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 Carlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the consumer goods BBB curve

Switch Buy Carlsberg EUR 2024 and

fund it by selling Carlsberg EUR

2019

Carlsberg 2024 is trading significantly wider than the consumer goods BBB curve whereas Carlsberg 2019 is priced within the consumer goods BBB curve.

Switch Buy Maersk EUR 2021 and fund

by selling Maersk EUR 2019

Pick-up is c. 40bp for around 1.5 years of maturity extension.

Outright

Outright Buy Kemira 2019s and 2022s

(EUR)

The Kemira (Danske Bank Markets: ‘BBB-’) 2019s and 2022s trade with a wide differential to rated peers. Despite Kemira’s unrated status, we believe this differential is too large.

Outright Buy Danfoss 1.375% 2022

(EUR)

The spread on the DNFSDC 22s trades wider than the ‘BBB’ fair value curve and is rated ‘BBB’ with stable outlook by S&P.

Outright Buy DSV DKK 2020 and 2022s The 2022s and the 2020 bonds are trading with 120bp and 108bp spreads to the ‘BBB’ industrial curve, respectively. Even taking into account the unrated status of the bonds and a relatively low liquidity, we believe this is very attractive.

Buy INVSA EUR 4.875% 2021 Spread on the INVSA 2021 has widened recently and is too wide compared with average spreads for industrials with high (AA) ratings.

Outright

1717

Best and worst performers (Nordic coverage universe)- Investment grade


1 week in local currencies 1 month in local currencies

44

42

37

17

12

11

10

10

10

9

-9

-10

-12

-13

-14

-16

-17

-18

-20

-27

-40-30-20-1001020304050

Teollisuuden Voima Oyj EUR 2025



Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson EUR…

Telia Co AB EUR 2027

DONG Energy A/S EUR 2016

Vestas Wind Systems A/S EUR 2022

Swedish Match AB SEK 2020

Statkraft AS EUR 2017


Nordea Bank AB EUR 2016

SpareBank 1 SR-Bank ASA EUR 2021

BRFkredit A/S EUR 2018

Scania CV AB SEK 2017

Fingrid OYJ EUR 2024

Statkraft AS NOK 2025

Statkraft AS NOK 2020

Sampo Oyj SEK 2020

Scania CV AB EUR 2017

Citycon Treasury BV EUR 2022


31

30

10

9

8

7

7

6

5

5

-5

-5

-5

-5

-6

-7

-7

-9

-14

-16

-20-10010203040

Fortum Varme Holding samagt med…

Swedish Match AB SEK 2020


Scania CV AB EUR 2017


Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA SEK 2019


ICA Gruppen AB SEK 2018

Nibe Industrier AB SEK 2019


DONG Energy A/S EUR 2016

Sampo Oyj EUR 2021


AP Moeller - Maersk A/S EUR 2019

SKF AB EUR 2022

Neste Oyj EUR 2016

Sampo Oyj SEK 2020

Nordea Bank AB EUR 2016

Fingrid OYJ EUR 2024

Citycon Treasury BV EUR 2022


1818

Selected new investment-grade issues*


*Excluding increases in existing bond issues (taps)

Date Issuer Coupon CCY Volume Maturity S&P / Mdy / Fitch ASW/DM

09/06/2016 Willhem Ab STIB3M +85bps SEK 900 m Jun/19 A- / / 85

09/06/2016 Thon Holding As NIBOR3M +100bps NOK 700 m Jun/20 / / 100

09/06/2016 Bunge Finance Europe Bv 1.85% EUR 600 m Jun/23 BBB / Baa2 / BBB 170

09/06/2016 Ipsen Sa 1.875% EUR 300 m Jun/23 / / 180

09/06/2016 Asb Finance Ltd 0.5% EUR 500 m Jun/20 AA- / Aa3e / 60

09/06/2016 Dvb Bank Se 1.25% EUR 500 m Jun/23 A+ / A2u / AA-e 115

08/06/2016 Sparebanken More NIBOR3M +75bps NOK 750 m Jun/19 / A2 / 75

07/06/2016 Hemso Fastighets Ab STIB3M +65bps SEK 500 m Jun/18 A- / / 65

07/06/2016 Jp Morgan Chase Bank Na EUR003M +22bps EUR 2 500 m Jun/18 A+ / Aa3e / AA-e 22

07/06/2016 Sumitomo Mitsui Finl Grp 1.546% EUR 1 500 m Jun/26 A- / A1 / 105

06/06/2016 Sparebanken Ost NIBOR3M +78bps NOK 500 m Sep/19 / A3 / 78

06/06/2016 Air Liquide Finance 1.25% EUR 1 000 m Jun/28 / A3 / 63

06/06/2016 Vonovia Finance Bv 0.875% EUR 500 m Jun/22 BBB+ / / 87

06/06/2016 Tennet Holding Bv 1.875% EUR 500 m Jun/36 A- / A3 / WD 98

06/06/2016 Nykredit Realkredit As 0.875% EUR 500 m Jun/19 BBB+ / Baa1u / A 110

1919

Company news from the past week (investment grade)



Nordax

Nordax ('BBB-' rated by Danske): bullish comments from the CEO regarding the possibility of entering new markets in a couple of years' time. Also very positive when it comes to lowering the C/I ratio to around 20% in the coming years due to continued good demand for its flexible unsecured lending products => growing the income while keeping costs low as a result of the centralised organisation out of Stockholm. That said, nothing in the interview that should impact the bonds of Nordax but more something for the equity market, in our view

Credit neutral

Utilities

A broad coalition in the Swedish parliament has agreed on a new long-term energy policy. Key elements include the decision to abandon the previous target of phasing out nuclear energy. The rather steep tax on nuclear will be scrapped and the tax on hydro capacity will be significantly reduced. While the new policy also entails some additional burdens for the nuclear industry, the overall impression is that this is clearly positive for utilities with nuclear and hydro generation in Sweden. This includes Vattenfall (MW) and Fortum (UW). We see rating pressure easing on both companies on the back of this more benign than expected new energy policy. In an effort to make all electricity generation renewable by 2040, Sweden will also prolong its current green certificate subsidy scheme from 2020 to 2030. The prospect of more nuclear and renewable capacity in the longer term, will, all things being equal, lead to higher power supply and therefore weigh slightly on long-term power prices compared with before this new policy.

Credit positive

Nordax

Nordax increases the maximum amount for loans offered in Finland to EUR50,000. This improves Nordax’s opportunities to meet the needs of existing as well as new customers. The maximum loan amount was previously EUR40,000 with a maximum duration of 15 years. Morten Falch, CEO, comments: ‘We focus on large loans with long duration. That is how we create customer utility. We enable customers to take advantage of a loan at an affordable monthly cost that allows them to bridge the gap between their income and costs over an extended period of time.’ Nordax is focused on offering large personal loans targeted at financially stable individuals. The average loan is SEK140,000. The typical average age of Nordax’s customers is 47 years and they are employed with average incomes above national averages. Nordax’s customers often own their houses and have no payment remarks on their credit records. As of 31 March 2016, Nordax’s lending to the general public amounted to SEK11.3bn, of which SEK2.0bn in Finland. The increased loan amount is implemented as of 10 June in Finland. In Sweden and Norway Nordax offers loans with a maximum amount of 500 000 SEK and NOK, and in Germany the maximum amount is EUR40,000. DBM comment: should be positive for the growth without any expected impact on asset quality.

Credit neutral

2020

Company news from the past week (investment grade)



OP Corporate Bank

OP Financial Group has updated its long-term strategy aiming to gradually change to a ‘diversified services company in the digital era with strong financial expertise’ to meet the digital transformation of the financial sector. Over the next five years, it will invest EUR2bn in a large scale development programme to speed up its digitisation of Banking, Non-life and Wealth management services and it will create a fourth business unit focusing on health and well-being services. The costs will weaken the group’s profitability, but it is expected that they will lead to better financial indicators in the long term. Along with the strategy, it also updated its financial targets. Most importantly from a credit perspective, it increased its CET1 target to 22% from its old target of 18% (at end Q1 16 its CET1 ratio was 19.5%). Additionally it targets lower costs in 2019 than in 2015. We see the move to improve efficiency as positive despite possible lower profitability in the next years and combined with a higher target for the CET1 ratio this is credit positive.

Credit positive

SKF

SKF (MW) is consolidating its US manufacturing facilities which will entail closures of sites in San Diego, California, Baltimore and Maryland. This is part of SKF's ongoing streamlining exercise and should generate annual cost savings of some SEK220m from 2019 and onwards. Around SEK70m of these will be achieved in 2018. Total restructuring costs will amount to SEK300m of which SEK100m will be a non-recurring item in Q2 16 and the remainder will be spread over the coming quarters. Overall this should not have any material effect on SKF credit spreads, in our view.

Credit neutral

Billerud

Billerud (DBM:'BBB-'/P) has initiated a new investment programme targeting growth in Kraft papers. The programme will entail moving the MG paper machine in Tervesaari to Skärblacka and investing in surface treatment capacity on the existing paper machine. As a result capex is set to rise to SEK1.4bn this year and SEK1.9bn in 2017 and 2018 i.e. significantly above the SEK1.3bn run rate. With an adjusted net debt below 2x end Q1 16 the balance sheet is strong enough to carry out such a programme and we keep our 'BBB-' rating on the name.

Credit negative

Norwegian Banks

The Norwegian FSA published its financial outlook for 2016. Not much news in the outlook; the FSA expects that loan losses will increase in banks in the coming period due to the oil-related exposures. The market already expected this, so it is hardly a surprise. Moreover, stress tests showed that some banks will run into difficulties in the tougher scenarios, but the FSA generally believed Norwegian banks are well capitalised (also taking into account the still increasing requirements during 2016). The FSA flagged that unsecured lending poses a risk factor and has grown a lot lately. We agree to that, but highlight the very benign conditions for collecting the money back in Norway. Finally nothing new on MREL/BRRD - we still have to await the proposal for this, expected later on this year. All in all the Outlook looked like a non-event.

Credit neutral

2121Credit Indicators

Credit indicators

2222

Chart pack: euro spreads and returns

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

Euro IG ASW, iBoxx indices

Euro HY ASW, Merrill Lynch indices

IG total return, iBoxx indices, 2014-01=100

HY total return, Merrill Lynch indices, 2014-01=100

2323

Chart pack: relative valueiTraxx vs iBoxx

Euro vs US CDS indices - IG (Markit) Euro vs US HY bond indices (Merrill Lynch)


2424

Chart pack: general market development

Source: Macrobond Financial , Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

European swap and government yields

Euro swap curve spread

3M Libor, US and euro area

EUR/USD basis swaps

2525

Chart pack: high-yield funds flow

Source: Bloomberg, Danske Bank Markets [all charts]

High-yield Europe ETF fund flow High yield US ETF fund flow

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016

Cu

mu

lati

ve E

TF

-flo

w M

EU

R

High Yield - Europe - Fixed Income

-2,000-1,000

01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000

10,00011,00012,000

Dec-2014 Mar-2015 Jun-2015 Sep-2015 Dec-2015 Mar-2016

Cu

mu

lati

ve E

TF-

flow

ME

UR

High Yield - North America - Fixed Income

2626

Chart pack: fund flows


Europe, net sales

Sweden, net sales

US, net sales

Norway, net sales

2727

Chart pack: macro


GDP y/y growth, calendar adjusted

Euro area y/y change in bank lending

Purchasing Manager Indices

Euro area lending standards

2828

Coverage universe, credit ratings

and recommendations

2929

Our coverage and shadow ratings 1 of 6

Source: Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch, Danske Bank Markets

Ratings from S&P/Moody's/Fitch and Danske Bank Markets shadow ratings

Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookAhlstrom Oyj BB- Stable M. Rosendal / J. MagnussenAkelius Residential Property Ab BBB- Stable L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad OVERWEIGHTAktia Bank Plc A- Neg A3 Stable L. Holm / K. JensenAlandsbanken Abp BBB Neg L. Holm / K. JensenAmbu A/S BBB- Stable J. Magnussen / M. RosendalAp Moeller - Maersk A/S BBB+ Neg Baa1 Stable B. Børsting/J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTArla Foods Amba BBB Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanAtlas Copco Ab A Stable A2 Stable A Stable B. Børsting / M. Rosendal UNDERWEIGHTAvinor As AA- Stable A1 Stable G. Bergin / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTBalder BBB- Stable L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadBank 1 Oslo Akershus As BBB+ Stable L. Holm / K. JensenBank Norwegian As BBB Stable L. Holm / K. JensenBeerenberg Holdco Ii As B Stable B Ø. MossigeBillerudkorsnas Ab BBB- Pos M. Rosendal / L. LandemanBonum Pankki Oyj BBB Stable L. Holm / K. JensenBrage Finans As BBB Stable L. Holm / K. JensenBw Offshore BB Ø. MossigeCarlsberg Breweries A/S Baa2 Neg BBB Stable B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTCastellum Ab BBB- Stable L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadCitycon Oyj BBB Stable Baa1 Stable L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad OVERWEIGHTColor Group As BB- Stable BB- N. Ripa / B. BørstingCom Hem Holding Ab BB Stable M. Rosendal / J. MagnussenCorem Property Group Ab BB- Stable B+ L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadDanfoss A/S BBB Stable J. Magnussen / B. Børsting OVERWEIGHTDanske Bank A/S A Stable A2 Stable A StableDeep Sea Supply Plc B- Neg Ø. MossigeDestia Group Oy BB- Stable B+ L. Landeman / G. BerginDfds A/S BBB- Stable N. Ripa / B. BørstingDlg Finance As BB- Stable M. Rosendal / B. BørstingDna Ltd BBB- Stable M. Rosendal / J. MagnussenDnb Bank Asa A+ Neg Aa2 Neg L. Holm / K. Jensen UNDERWEIGHTDof Asa B+ Neg Ø. Mossige

Recomm.Danske Bank S&P Moody's Fitch

3030




Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookDof Subsea As B+ Neg Ø. MossigeDong Energy A/S BBB+ Stable Baa1 Neg BBB+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanDsv A/S BBB Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalEg Holding B Stable J. Magnussen / N. RipaEidesvik Offshore Asa B Neg Ø. MossigeEika Boligkreditt As A- Stable L. Holm / K. JensenEika Forsikring As BBB+ Stable L. Holm / K. JensenEika Gruppen As BBB Stable L. Holm / K. JensenEksportfinans Asa BBB Pos Ba3U Stable L. Holm / K. JensenElectrolux Ab BBB+ Stable Wr WD G. Bergin / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTElenia Oy BBB J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTElisa Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa2 Stable M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen OVERWEIGHTFarstad Shipping Asa B Stable B- Ø. MossigeFastpartner Ab BB Stable BB- L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadFelleskjopet Agri Sa BBB- Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalFingrid Oyj A+ Pos A1 Pos A+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTFinnair Oyj BB+ Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalFortum Oyj BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTFortum Varme Holding Samagt Med Stockholms Stad Ab BBB+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanFred Olsen Energy Asa B+ Neg B S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedG4S Plc BBB- Neg B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTGetinge Ab BB Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginGolar Lng Partners Lp BB Stable BB- B.K. Røed / J. MeyerGolden Close Maritime Corp Ltd CCC S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedHavila Shipping Asa D Neg Ø. MossigeHeimstaden Ab BB Stable BB- L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadHemso Fastighets Ab A- Stable L. Landeman / P. Ahmarinejad MARKETWEIGHTHexagon Ab BBB- Pos L. Landeman / G. BerginHkscan Oyj BB Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalHoegh Lng Holdings Ltd BB- Stable B+ B.K. Røed / J. MeyerHoist Kredit Ab Ba1 Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanHusqvarna Ab BBB- Pos L. Landeman / G. BerginIca Gruppen Ab BBB Stable G. Bergin / L. Landeman


3131




Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookIkano Bank Ab BBB Stable L. Holm / K. JensenInvestor Ab AA- Stable Aa3 Stable G. Bergin / B. Børsting OVERWEIGHTIss A/S BBB Stable B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTJ Lauritzen A/S B Stable B- B.K. Røed / J. MeyerJefast Holding Ab B Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginJernhusen Ab A- Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanJyske Bank A/S A- Stable Baa1U Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen OVERWEIGHTKemira Oyj BBB- Stable Wr M. Rosendal / L. LandemanKesko Oyj BBB Neg G. Bergin / L. LandemanKlaveness Ship Holding As BB- Stable B+ B.K. Røed / J. MeyerKlovern Ab BB+ Stable BB L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadKongsberg Gruppen BBB+ Stable BBB+ Ø. MossigeLantmannen Ek For BBB- Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanLoomis Ab BBB Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalLuossavaara-Kiirunavaara Ab BBB Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginMeda Ab BB- Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginMetsa Board Oyj BB+ Pos Ba2 Stable M. Rosendal / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHTMetso Oyj BBB Stable Baa2 Stable B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTNcc Ab BBB- Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginNeste Oyj BBB- Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTNibe Industrier Ab BBB- Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanNokia Oyj BB+ Pos Ba2 Stable BB+ Pos M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTNordax Bank Ab BBB- Stable L. Holm / K. JensenNordea Bank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen UNDERWEIGHTNorth Atlantic Drilling Ltd CCC+ Neg CCC S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedNorwegian Air Shuttle Asa B+ Stable B B. Børsting / M. RosendalNykredit Bank A/S A Neg Baa3U Stable A Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen OVERWEIGHTNynas Group B+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanObos Bbl BBB Stable H. Syed/ B. Engebretsen MARKETWEIGHTOcean Rig Udw Inc CCC+ Neg Ca Neg S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedOcean Yield Asa BB BB- Ø. MossigeOdfjell Se B+ Stable B B.K. Røed / J. Meyer


3232




Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookOlympic Ship As B Stable B Ø. MossigeOp Corporate Bank Plc AA- Neg Aa3 Stable WD L. Holm / K. Jensen OVERWEIGHTOrava Residential Reit Plc B+ Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginOrkla Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ H. Syed/ B. EngebretsenOutokumpu Oyj B3 Pos M. Rosendal / L. LandemanPacific Drilling Sa B- Neg Caa2 Neg S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedPetroleum Geo-Services Asa CCC+ Neg Caa1 Neg S. StormyrPostnord Ab BBB+ Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanProsafe Se B+ Neg B S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedRamirent Oyj BB+ Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalRem Offshore Asa B- Ø. MossigeSaab Ab BBB+ Stable Wr G. Bergin / L. LandemanSandnes Sparebank BBB+ Stable L. Holm / K. JensenSandvik Ab BBB Neg B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTSas Ab B- Stable Wr Stable B. Børsting / M. RosendalSbab Bank Ab A Neg A2 Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen MARKETWEIGHTScania Ab BBB+ Neg M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTSeadrill Ltd B Neg B- S. Stormyr / B.K. RøedSecuritas Ab BBB Stable Wr B. Børsting / M. Rosendal MARKETWEIGHTShip Finance International Ltd BB Stable BB- Wr B.K. Røed / J. MeyerSiem Offshore Inc B- Neg Ø. MossigeSkandinaviska Enskilda Banken Ab A+ Stable Aa3 Stable AA- Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen OVERWEIGHTSkanska Ab BBB+ Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginSkf Ab BBB Neg Baa2 Stable M. Rosendal / G. Bergin MARKETWEIGHTSognekraft As BBB Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanSolstad Offshore Asa B+ Stable B+ Ø. MossigeSpar Nord Bank A/S BBB+ Stable L. Holm / K. JensenSparebank 1 Boligkreditt As A- Stable L. Holm / K. JensenSparebank 1 Nord Norge A1 Stable A Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen UNDERWEIGHTSparebank 1 Smn A1 Stable A- Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen MARKETWEIGHTSparebank 1 Sr-Bank Asa A1 Neg A- Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen UNDERWEIGHTSparekassen Kronjylland BBB Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen


3333




Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookSponda Oyj BBB- Stable L. Landeman / G. BerginSrv Group Oyj B Stable B- Louis LandemanSsab Ab B+ Stable M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTSt1 Nordic Oy BB Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanStatkraft Sf A- Neg Aaa Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTStatnett Sf A+ Stable Wr Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTStatoil Asa A+ Stable Aa3 Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTStena Ab BB Stable B3 Stable N. Ripa / B. Børsting UNDERWEIGHTStockmann Oyj Abp B+ Stable N. Ripa / G. BerginStolt-Nielsen Ltd BB+ Stable BB B.K. Røed / J. MeyerStora Enso Oyj BB Stable Ba2 Stable WD M. Rosendal / L. Landeman UNDERWEIGHTStorebrand Bank Asa BBB+ Stable BBB+ Neg Nr Stable L. Holm / K. JensenStorebrand Livsforsikring Group BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable L. Holm / K. JensenSunnfjord Energi As BBB- Stable J. Magnussen / L. LandemanSuomen Hypoteekkiyhdistys BBB Neg L. Holm / K. JensenSvensk Fastighetsfinansiering Ab BBB Stable Louis LandemanSvenska Cellulosa Ab Sca A- Stable Baa1 Stable M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTSvenska Handelsbanken Ab AA- Neg Aa2 Stable AA Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen MARKETWEIGHTSwedavia Ab A- Stable G. Bergin / L. LandemanSwedbank Ab AA- Neg Aa3 Stable AA- Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen MARKETWEIGHTSwedish Match Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable B. Børsting / M. Rosendal OVERWEIGHTSydbank A/S Baa1 Stable L. Holm / K. Jensen MARKETWEIGHTTallink Grupp As BB Stable BB- N. Ripa / J. MagnussenTdc A/S BBB- Stable Baa3 Stable BBB- Stable M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTechnopolis Oyj BB+ Stable BB L. Landeman / G. BerginTeekay Lng Partners Lp BB Stable BB- Ø. MossigeTeekay Offshore Partners Lp BB Stable BB- Ø. MossigeTele2 Ab BBB Stable M. Rosendal / J. MagnussenTelefonaktiebolaget Lm Ericsson BBB+ Stable Baa1 Stable BBB+ Stable M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTelenor Asa A Stable A3 Stable M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTelia Co Ab A- Stable Baa1 Stable A- Stable M. Rosendal / J. Magnussen MARKETWEIGHTTeollisuuden Voima Oyj BB+ Stable Wr BBB Neg J. Magnussen / L. Landeman OVERWEIGHT


3434




Analyst(s)

Company Rating Outlook Sr. Unsec Rating Outlook Rating Outlook Rating OutlookTopdanmark A/S BBB+ Stable L. Holm / K. JensenTryg Forsikring A/S L. Holm / K. JensenUpm-Kymmene Oyj BB+ Stable Ba1 Pos WD M. Rosendal / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTVasakronan Ab A- Stable A- L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadVattenfall Ab BBB+ Neg A3 Neg BBB+ Stable J. Magnussen / L. Landeman MARKETWEIGHTVestas Wind Systems A/S BBB Stable N. Ripa / J. Magnussen OVERWEIGHTVictoria Park Ab BB Stable BB- L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadVolvo Ab BBB Stable Baa2 Stable BBB Stable M. Rosendal / B. Børsting MARKETWEIGHTWelltec A/S B Neg B2 Neg S. StormyrWihlborgs Fastigheter Ab BB+ Stable BB L. Landeman / P. AhmarinejadWilh Wilhelmsen Asa BB+ Stable B.K. Røed / J. MeyerYit Oyj B Stable L. Landeman / G. Bergin


3535

Fixed Income Credit Research team

Find the latest Credit Research: :

Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>

Fixed Income Credit Research team

Find the latest Credit Research: :

Danske Bank Markets: http://www.danskebank.com/danskemarketsresearch Bloomberg: DNSK<GO>

Thomas Hovard

Head of Credit Research

+45 45 12 85 05

[email protected]

Pegah Ahmarinejad

Real Estate

+46 8 568 80593

[email protected]

Gabriel Bergin

Strategy, Industrials

+46 8 568 80602

[email protected]

Brian Børsting

Industrials

+45 45 12 85 19

[email protected]

Lars Holm

Financials

+45 45 12 80 41

[email protected]

Jakob Magnussen

Utilities, Energy

+45 45 12 85 03

[email protected]

Øyvind Mossige

Oil services

+47 85 40 54 91

[email protected]

Niklas Ripa

High Yield, Industrials

+45 45 12 80 47

[email protected]

Knut-Ivar Bakken

Fish farming

+47 85 40 70 74

[email protected]

Bendik Engebretsen

Industrials

+47 85 40 69 14

[email protected]

Louis Landeman

Industrials, Real Estate

+46 8 568 80524

[email protected]

Bjørn Kristian Røed

Shipping

+47 85 40 70 72

[email protected]

Mads Rosendal

Industrials, TMT

+45 45 14 88 79

[email protected]

Sondre Dale Stormyr

Offshore rigs

+47 85 40 70 70

[email protected]

Katrine Jensen

Financials

+45 45 12 80 56

[email protected]

Henrik René Andresen

Credit Portfolios

+45 45 13 33 27

[email protected]

Haseeb Syed

Industrials

+47 85 40 54 19

[email protected]

3636

DisclosuresThis research report has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets, a division of Danske Bank A/S ('Danske Bank'). The authors of this research report are Mads Rosendal, Analyst, and Katrine Jensen, Analyst.

Analyst certification

Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report.

Regulation

Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request.

The research reports of Danske Bank are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Financial Analysts' rules of ethics and the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.

Conflicts of interest

Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank's research policies. Employees within Danske Bank's Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank's Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank.

Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.

Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries are engaged in commercial banking, securities underwriting, dealing, trading, brokerage, investment management, investment banking, custody and other financial services activities, may be a lender to the companies mentioned in this publication and have whatever rights are available to a creditor under applicable law and the applicable loan and credit agreements. At any time, Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries may have credit or other information regarding the companies mentioned in this publication that is not available to or may not be used by the personnel responsible for the preparation of this report, which might affect the analysis and opinions expressed in this research report.

See http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer for further disclosures and information.

http://www-2.danskebank.com/Link/researchdisclaimer

General disclaimerThis research has been prepared by Danske Bank Markets (a division of Danske Bank A/S). It is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute or form part of, and shall under no circumstances be considered as, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase or sell any relevant financial instruments (i.e. financial instruments mentioned herein or other financial instruments of any issuer mentioned herein and/or options, warrants, rights or other interests with respect to any such financial instruments) ('Relevant Financial Instruments').

The research report has been prepared independently and solely on the basis of publicly available information that Danske Bank considers to be reliable. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and Danske Bank, its affiliates and subsidiaries accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss, including without limitation any loss of profits, arising from reliance on this research report.

The opinions expressed herein are the opinions of the research analysts responsible for the research report and reflect their judgement as of the date hereof. These opinions are subject to change, and Danske Bank does not undertake to notify any recipient of this research report of any such change nor of any other changes related to the information provided in this research report.

This research report is not intended for, and may not be redistributed to, retail customers in the United Kingdom or the United States.

This research report is protected by copyright and is intended solely for the designated addressee. It may not be reproduced or distributed, in whole or in part, by any recipient for any purpose without Danske Bank's prior written consent.

Disclaimer related to distribution in the United StatesThis research report was created by Danske Bank A/S and is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank A/S, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to 'U.S. institutional investors' as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to 'U.S. institutional investors'.

Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction.

Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

weekly credit update - microsoft · 2016-06-14 · 14 june 2016 weekly credit update ... points...

Documents