week runs from sunday to saturday ireland: predictions · 2019-03-19 · phaeocystis sp. low -...

HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]

Week runs from Sunday to Saturday

Ireland: Predictions

ASP event: Low – continued steady slow climb. AZP event: High –moderate- constant fluctuation DSP event: Low - steady slow increase.PSP event: Very low - steady.

ASP: 7 week trend. At background levels with slow growth levels in general, Eastern shores currently slightly higher than other areas. Current environmental conditions and historic trends also do not indicate any immediate potential increase in risk.

AZP: No changes. Constant weekly fluctuation, no clear or stable pattern. High caution levels as a precaution ,in all areas, due to presence of potential cells presence a ( still at below reg. limit). On shore transportation likely and still approaching historic period of occurrence. This species has caused sudden acute issues in the past and rarely presents any trends.

DSP: 6 week pattern. Stable pattern of slow increase. Low levels of cells and related toxins present. Potential impact, if any , from current warm weather systems is unknown but will be monitored .Nearing start of historic season of occurrence.

PSP: No Change - Steady Winter season trend .Stable seasonal pattern of low cell levels and low likelihood of issues establishing unless suitable environmental conditions become established.

Blooms: Low - Potential for non toxic diatom spring bloom type species to increase to low bloom levels over the coming weeks. No toxic blooms currently indicated. Any unusual water discoloration should be noted and regional labs contacted if concerned /regarding possible need for additional sampling. All feedback is welcome at [email protected] .

NMP Current closures

ASP AZP DSP PSP

0 0 0 0

Week 12: March 17th -23rd 2019

mailto:[email protected]

HAB Bulletin [status of harmful and toxic algae]

National Monitoring ProgrammeHISTORIC TRENDS

ASP events: mid-March to early May

AZP events: April to December

DSP events: May to December

PSP events: June to mid-July and end September; only in Cork Harbour

AZP

DSP

PTX

ASP

PSP

Levels from week 1 to present week. Regulatory limit - - - - - - -

DSP and Dinophysis sp. current trends

Ireland HAB & Biotoxin Distribution maps

[current status of harmful and toxic algae]

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.

All levels of DSP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.

Current closures levels≥ DSP 0.16 µg/g

Comment

Wk. 12 – 7 week trend - slow

and relatively steady increase in

general. Areas historically prone

to issues should begin to be

more vigilant of approaching

historical impact season .



Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks. All levels of AZP biotoxin recorded - last 3 wks.

AZP and Azadinium like species current trends

Current closures levels≥ AZP 0.16 µg/g

CommentsWk. 12 – Slight potentialdecrease indication, may berelated to weather pattern, inboth spread of potential cellsand toxin levels presence.High caution must remain dueto constant fluctuations, thepresence of potentialcausative species and theability of this toxin to occursuddenly with little or nowarning.

ASP



ASP and Pseudo nitzschia sp. current trends

Current closures levels≥ASP 20 µg/g

CommentsWk. 12 - 5 week stable trend. Slow increase in cells as would be expected at this time and based on seasonal trends. In general, sudden increases not expected yet and no significant jump in toxins indicated. Some areas increasing at potentially faster rates than others (E).

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks.

All levels of ASP biotoxin recorded – last 3 wks.



PSP and Alexandrium sp. current trends

Phytoplankton species – last 3 wks. All levels of PSP biotoxin recorded – last 3 wks.

CommentsWk. 12 – 6 wk. steady trend .Continued steady trend of very low potential of bloom issues due to environmental conditions. Current presence and levels all low. Toxic bloom events are strongly linked to localised suitable environmental conditions.

Current closures levels≥ PSP 800 µg/Kg

Ireland Fish killing phytoplankton Distribution maps


Karenia mikimotoi

(old name: Gyrodinium aureolum)

Current general conditions: Wk. 12

Karenia mikimotoi Low

Noctiluca scintillans Low

Coscinodiscus species Low - increasing

Phaeocystis sp. Low - increasing

Chaetoceros sp Low - increasing

Continued increase in cell numbers in most areas . The potential of

sudden blooms is still low as light and temperature levels are still

limited. Suitable environmental conditions for the establishment and

growth/spread of bloom conditions are not expected this week but

would be expected to begin to increase slowly at this time of year. Low

levels of Coscinodiscus sp. and Chaetoceros sp continue to be

observed in some areas.

Phaeocystis speciesKarenia mikimotoiHeterocapsa spp.Noctiluca scintillans

Alexandrium spp.

Any part of coastline

Has tended ,in past ,to be very site specific

Ireland Satellite data: surface chlorophyll and temperature maps

Top 5 phytoplankton cell levels in all areas last week

NW coast (M4) Unavailable wk.11SW coast (M3) Unavailable wk.11SE coast (M5) Above average by 0.73°C wk.11

Steady continued increase - All areasindicating increasing in seasonal levels of nontoxic plankton. General pattern still of lowlevels of cell biomass . Diatoms making upthe majority of the species present in mostsites and in some areas reaching low nontoxic bloom levels.

Week 11

Chlorophyll levels indicating potential increase in cell growth at sea in all areas this week, with only the Northern shorelines indicating potentially above average anomalies.

Rank Region Species Rounded Count

1 East Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

4000

2 East Bacillaria spp. 4000

3 East Centric diatom 3000

4 East Paralia sp. 2000

5 East Skeletonema spp. 1000

1 North-West Skeletonema spp. 1080000

2 North-West Pennate diatom 5000

3 North-West Odontella spp. 3000

4 North-West Centric diatom 1000

5 North-West Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

1000

1 South Skeletonema costatum 19000

2 South Thalassiosira spp. 18000

3 South Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii

13000

4 South Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

10000

5 South Skeletonema spp. 10000

1 South-East Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

4000

2 South-East Pennate diatom 3000

3 South-East Thalassiosira spp. 2000

4 South-East Skeletonema spp. 2000

5 South-East Centric diatom 1000

1 South-West Skeletonema costatum 14000

2 South-West Skeletonema spp. 11000

2 South-West Haptophytes 11000

4 South-West Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii

10000

5 South-West Paralia sulcata 10000

1 West Pennate diatom 32000

2 West Striatella spp. 5000

3 West Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

4000

4 West Paralia sp. 1000

5 West Centric diatom <1000

1 West North-west Pennate diatom 22000

2 West North-west Cylindrotheca closterium/ Nitzschia longissima

7000

3 West North-west Skeletonema spp. 4000

4 West North-west Asterionellopsis spp. 2000

5 West North-west Thalassiosira spp. 2000

1 West South-West Pennate diatom 9000

2 West South-West Skeletonema costatum 9000

3 West South-West Skeletonema spp. 8000

4 West South-West Thalassiosira spp. 4000

5 West South-West Thalassiosira nordenskioeldii

4000

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday

Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

The maps show the most

likely transport pathways

for the next 3 days of

phytoplankton found along

the presented transects

(black lines off Mizen Head

and the Mouth of Bantry Bay)

and water depths (bottom,

20 metres and surface)

Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water

Reddish colours represent areas

where phytoplankton remain

longest

Cooler colours represent areas

where phytoplankton remain for

shorter periods

Mixed directional movements, at all depths slightly more dominant in Northerly surface

direction, allowing for low mixing and incursions of offshore waters into inner bays areas.

Upwelling transportation possible , outer bay waters moving into inner bay areas , possibly

as far as mid bay regions .

SOUTHWEST: Bantry Bay Forecast for the next 3 days

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

Bantry Bay3 day estimated water flows at the mouth and mid-bay sections of Bantry Bay

T1

T1

Forecast for next 3 days

De

pth

20 m

20 m

Water surface

Sea bed

Flow (m3 s-1)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

IN

OUT

Shot Head cross section: Upwelling potential and

transportation in all inner bay areas from mid and

outer bay waters.

Moderate to strong upwelling and outer bay incursions from

offshore waters likely.

CURRENT inflowInflow is 5% greater than Long Term Mean at Shot Head

Inflow is 9% greater than Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay

Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water PathwayWeek runs from Sunday to Saturday

Week 23: 31 May – 6 June, 2015Ireland modelled data: Estimated Water Pathway

The maps show the most

likely transport pathways

for the next 3 days of

phytoplankton found along

the presented transects i.e.

white lines off Aughrus Point

and the Mouth of Killary

Harbour, and water depths

(bottom, 20 metres and

surface)

Reddish colours represent

areas where phytoplankton

remain longest

Cooler colours represent

areas where phytoplankton

remain for shorter periods

WEST: Killary Harbour Forecast for the next 3 days

Bottom water Water @ 20 metres Surface water

ClegganMixed directional movements in offshore deeper waters . Slight Northerly dominance in direction

predicted. Incursions and piling of offshore waters on all exposed shoreline areas.

KillaryUpwelling possibilities as far as mid bay regions minimum, allowing for some transportation of outer

bay waters into inner bay areas.


Killary Harbour - 3 day estimated water flows at the mouth of Killary Harbour

T1

23 m

T1

Killary Harbour

De

pth

CURRENT inflow

Inflow is 15% lower than Long Term Mean at mouth of Bay

Water surface


Flow (m3 s-1)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

IN

OUT

Killary Harbour Mouth

cross section:

Continued potential

upwelling indicated as a

transportation

mechanism in the next

few days, allowing outer

bay waters to enter inner

bay areas.


West Coast - 3 day estimated water flows along a transect off Aughrus Point

T1

110 m

De

pth

Water surface


Flow (m3 s-1)

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

northward

flow

southward

flow

T1

Killary Harbour

Cleggan transect

20 m

Aughrus Point

Cleggan section: Continued strong

outer Southerly movements with

minor counter Northerly movements

in near shore areas.

week runs from sunday to saturday ireland: predictions · 2019-03-19 · phaeocystis sp. low -...

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