Week 7: Impacts on Regional Politics

Lecture 18: The American War Against (Terrorist) Taliban

17th March 2003 (Monday)

Mid-term Examination (24th March, Monday)

30% of the Total Grade 7:00-8:30pm, Room To Be Announced

Next Monday Class Covers Lectures 1-20 20 Multiple Choices 1 Short Questions with Choices

Mainstream Questions. E.g. Why did 911 happen? Among the possible reasons, which are valid and which are overstated? Please draw the examples from the course, as well as from other sources that you know, and please answer in your own opinion.

Question from Readings. E.g. Please discuss two of the assigned articles with contradictory perspectives, and analyze the origins of their respective perspective.

Review Session this Week Please Bring All the Notes

Take it Easy! ^o^

Logistics of Guest Lectures

Israel Consul General Eli Avidar The Israeli-Palestinian Issue The Israeli Response to the Current World Order The Israeli-Palestinian Peace Plan Announced by US

President George W Bush Last Saturday Lecture 19: 19th March 2003 (Wednesday) PLEASE ARRIVE ON TIME at 11am SHARP Lunch (12:00-1:00): Chinese Restaurant (南北小廚 ), G/F

Structure of Lecture 18:War Against Taliban Introduction

Relationship Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics

Afghanistan: A Brief History Why Afghanistan in the 1st

Wave of Anti-terrorism? Impacts of the War Conclusion:

What is the Name of the War?

PART I: IntroductionThe Warring Relationship

Between Superpower Politics & Regional Politics

On Behalf of the Superpower: Proxy War

War in a Remote Country of the Superpowers: The Warring Parties are All “Pro

xies” of the Superpowers. Backstage Bosses = Superpowe

rs Advantages:

No Direct Conflict Between the Superpowers

No Civilian Losses Diplomatic Flexibility

The Angolan Civil War (1970s)

FNLA: US+China-back Angolan Guerilla

MPLA: Cuba-back Angolan Guerilla Proxy’s Proxy (USSR—Cub

a—MPLA) UNITA: South Africa-back Ango

lan Guerilla Proxy’s Proxy (Anglo-Americ

an Rightists—South Africa—UNITA)

Proxy or Direct Involvement?

Advantage of Direct Involvement Over Proxy War: Towards the Iron Triangle (esp.

Military and Industrialists) Targeting towards the Regional

Order Vs towards another International Competitor

Internal Politics: Polling, Public Opinion and the Responsibility of Governments…

On Behalf of Host Countries: “Using the Barbarians against Barbarians”

Qing Dynasty’s Strategy to Invite Foreign Powers to Have Fun in China yiyizhiyi (Using the Barbarians against Barbaria

ns) The Danger of Being Overtaken Singapore’s Lee Kuan-Yew

Invite British Interests to Stay to Counter-balance the Malaysian Interests

Taiwan’s Chiang Kai-shek Invite USA to Station the

Seventh Fleet to Safeguard against Communist Aggression

PART IIAfghanistan: A Brief History

The Location of Afghanistan

An Ignored Empire in the Past

CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html

Have you heard of Afghanistan before 911?

China’s Vessel-state in the Qing Dynasty 19th Century: Sphere of Interest between

Russia (North) and Britain (South)

Soviet Occupation (1979-1989)

1973: Deposition of Zahir Shah Civil War between Various Parties (Eth

nic Minorities, Islamists & Communists) 1978: USSR Sponsored a Coup 1979: Iranian Revolution

Rise of Islamist Movement 1979: Counter-Coup in Afghanistan

Fall of Communist Regime Soviet Invasion under Brezhnev Execution of the Counter-Coup Leader Ami

n Guerilla Resistance Never Stopped

The Afghan Proxy War?

Not a Proxy War at the Beginning: Afghan Guerillas backed by Fell

ow Islamic Countries in the Counter-coup

After the Soviet Invasion: Mujahideen (Afghan Soldiers of

the God, inc. Taliban and Laden) became an Anti-Communist Slogan

Backed by Anti-Soviet Powers (USA, NATO, China)

Backed by Islamic Powers (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan)

All the Laden Allies! Western Technologies Islamic Ideologies

The Soviet Failure

International Backing of Mujahideen International Embargo The 1980 Moscow Olympic Games

Local Geography and Tactics Over-conscious in the American Pr

eparation Tactical Failure

Military Vs Economic Aggression Imperial Overreach of USSR

End of Détente in the Cold War Analogy of Computer War Games

1989: Soviet Withdrawal, as USSR was Collapsing

PART III First Wave of

Anti-Terrorism:Why Afghanistan?

The Taliban Regime (1996-2001)

Warlord Era (1989-1996) Taliban = “students” of Islamic Fundam

entalism Pushtun, the Largest Tribe in Afghanistan Strict Disciplines, Committed Ideology Conquered Kabul & 90% of Land at 1996

Legitimate Regime in Afghanistan (1996-2001) The True Taliban and the Opportunist Talib

an Foreign Allies:

Taught and Trained by Pakistan Economically Sponsored by KSA, UAE (the

only 3 Countries Recognized Taliban Before 911)

Leader: Mullah Omar, Mutawakki, Zaeef

When Taliban turned Extremist

Arrival of Osama Bin Laden The Puritan Dictatorship of Islam Sacred Plan to Destroy Buddhis

m Destruction of Buddhist Statutes of

Bamyan Loss of Anti-American Sympathy The Chinese “Rebirth” Proposal

Any Credit? The Cruel Stability The Taliban Talk on Campus

Osama Bin Laden & Mullah Omar

Partnership During the War against USSR

Assistance of Laden to Taliban Public Administration Expert Money from KSA Stronger Ideological Control Kabul as a Terrorist Base?

Symbiotic Relationship or Mere Guest? The American Argument The Taliban Argument

Bush Doctrine and Afghanistan Bush Doctrine: Tailor-made for Taliban:

“Those harboring terrorists will be treated as terrorists”

Against any Proxies for Taliban Laden = Chief Suspect of Terrorism

Taliban “Hosting” Laden

Taliban = Chief Suspect of Terrorism as well

Must NOT be a Proxy War

Rationales Beneath the Table? Long-term Planning Conspiracy

Theory? Lack of Knowledge in USA on

Afghanistan Before 911 Vs Long-planned War against Iraq Afghanistan = Route to Oil Only, not

Oil Immediate Planning?

Embarrassment of “No Enemies” If Laden escaped elsewhere with no

evidence to show his existence, what might America bomb? How could they react?

Strategic Planning of Restructuring Regional Order was only Added During the War

The Sudden Collapse of Taliban

The “War” (Oct – Dec 2002) Expected Duration:

10 Years (Example of the Last Superpower: USSR)

2 Months for USA Reasons behind the Sudden Collapse

Military Reasons: US Technology Assistance of the Northern Alliance Bribery of the Pushtun Leaders in Taliban Retreat of KSA/ UAE Money The Great Betrayal of Pakistan

Anything Else?! – the Rebirth of Taliban in the Future?

PART IV Impacts

of the War

Assigned Readings

Main Text: William Maley: “The Reconstruction of

Afghanistan” (B&D P.184-193) Supplementary Text:

Milton Bearden. “Graveyard of Empire” (H&R P.83-96).

CNN’s The History of Afghanistan. http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2001/trade.center/afghanistan.timeline/index.html

The New Order in Afghanistan

Coalition Government under Hamid Karzai

Deposed Zahir Shah as the “Symbolic Supreme Leader”

Convention of Loya Jirga Introduction of “Reforms” Complete Disappearance of

Taliban, Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden?!

Assessing the American Success in terms of Anti-terrorism

Eradication of a Terrorist Base YES Eradication of Al-Qaeda? NO Capture of Laden, Life or Dead? NO International Sympathy:

Shifting from the American side to the Arabic side

More Terrorist Attacks after 911: Indonesia, Russia, Kenya, Philippines If Afghanistan was not attacked, will there be

more attacks or less? Safer or more dangerous?

Assessing the American Success in terms of

Establishing a New Regional Order American Grand Oil Plan?

Central Asian Republics Afghanistan Iraq Turkey Black Sea USA? Yes

Retreat of Russian and Islamic Influence in Afghanistan? Not Sure

Afghanistan became an “American Lake” Starting Point to Expand in the Region

Domino Effects Bush’s Attempt to Create “More Afghani

stans” Neighboring Countries Wary of their Ea

sy Collapses

The Transition of American Policies

Before the War against Taliban More Cautious, More Strategic

After the East Victory More Ambitious, More

Barbaric

Boom Vs Doom in the New Afghanistan

Impacts on Afghanistan: The Bright Side

Freedom of Women Sima Samar: Deputy Premier of

Afghanistan Education for All Students “Human” Entertainment

The Afghani National Soccer Team in the Asian Olympic Games

International Attention: the Chance to Raise Donation…

Impacts on Afghanistan:The Doom Side

Return to the Warlord Era Urban Order Vs Rural Disorder Assassinations of Ministers Assassination Attempts against President Karza

i Continuation of Poverty

Still the “Opium Empire” A “Full” American Protégé:

Personal Guards of Hamid Karzal – Who Are They?

Who are Maintaining Order at Kabul? Or, is America being “Used” as a “Barbarian” ag

ainst the “Barbaric” Taliban?

PART V Conclusion –

What is the Name of the War?

Name of the War…

“War of Anti-Terrorism”? (USA)

“War of American Imperialism”? (Laden)

“War of American Conspiracy”? (Conspiracy Theory)

“War of Afghani Rebirth”? (US Humanitarians)

Name of the War (II)…

“Civil War assisted by the American Follies”? (Northern Alliance)

“War of the nth Anti-aggression Campaign of Afghanistan”? (Afghan history)

War of No Meanings? What is the Name of the War agai

nst Iraq?

~~The End~~

Thank you for attending