wednesday update 10 march 2010

8/14/2019 Wednesday Update 10 March 2010

1/6

With 1140 being taken out, the next and last target for thismodel is 1154. That level would be -w-=-y- and also an(a)=(b) within -y-. This would produce a marginally higher high on the S&P 500. One wonders if this is what the marketis going for: a new high that brings in a new wave buyersbefore the actual conclusion?

Andys Technical Commentary__________________________________________________________________________________________________

- X -( Z )c

1044.5

a

(a)

(b)

-w-(c)

1112.3

1086

(c)-x-

-y-(c)?

S&P 500 (120 min.)

(a)

(b)

(a)[5]

[1]

[2]

[3][4]

(b)

1154

61.8% of -w- from-w-s conclusion


2/6

If 1154 doesnt produce the reversal, then were likely dealingwith this shorter term model. This would require a reworking of the medium term wave counts to see how it fits into the bigger picture. This setup opens up much more near term upside.


??

(e)-y-??

(a)

(b)

-a-1112.3

1086

(c)-b-

S&P 500 (120 min.)

(c)

(d)

-x-

-w-

(1)

(2)

(3)?

This move would be considered anDouble Combination, a correctionthat ends with a Triangle.


3/6

Dollar Index (Weekly)This model has been excellent for giving us a feel for medium term direction,so we will stick with it. While the DXY has clearly stopped going higher, onecannot say it has shown signs of a reversal. It looks like to be justcongesting nearer the highs, typically a signal that another new high is likely.

77.69

a

b89.62

( A )

x

w

y

x

74.33

z of c

e( B )

w

x

y

x

dZ

81.70?


The b wave lasted 11 weeks (54 trading days) on this chart and was very brief in comparison to the c wavethat followed. It would make sense for the d wave to be longer lasting to provide some alternation. For instance, it if were to be 161.8% of b, that would make this d wave 88 trading days long for an 18 week move.Were currently on trading day 67, so maybe another 2-3 weeks to go?


4/6

Dollar Index (240 min)

Dollar Bulls have had little to fret over the last few weeks. This marketseems to be congesting in a triangle type pattern while key support at79.53 hasnt been sniffed for awhile. It looks like we have another highcoming. However, the next new high could be a bull trap--the priceaction on setting a new high will be crucial. Does it just slice through andkeep powering? Or, does it just poke to a new high and then reverse onitself?

-b-

-e-

-a-

76.60

x1

w-c-

-d-

-f-

y

-g-80.68


x2?

-a-

-a--b-

-c-

-b-?

79.53

z of d-c-?

I have yet to see a legitimate five wave count for this move (y-wave) on the blogosphere, so Ill continue to call it a correction of some kind. If thediametric labeling makes one queasy, thenconsider it a double.

KEY SUPPORT


5/6

Dollar Index (Weekly)This has been my model for several months now and so far there is nothing to suggestanything different. The b-wave lasted 54 trading days, so an 80+ day d wave might benice alternation. So far, were only half way there, so perhaps this d wave persists untilearly April. The minimum objective of this pattern would be 81.70, for 61.8% of b. Adecisive break of 81.70 would open the door to 83.71, the 78.6% of b target. Interestingly,the 61.8% retrace of c comes in at 83.78, so we may not see any strong selling until 83.70s

77.69

a

b89.62

( A )

x

w

y

x

74.33

z of c

e( B )

w

x

y

x

dZ

81.70 or 83.71?

There is compelling evidence that were in the tail end of a triangle (B)-Wave. The a-wave was an elongated flat. These patterns exclusively show up as legs in a triangle. The c-wave is VERY difficult to classify as a five, therefore it must be a correction, which supports a triangle idea. Lastly, the c was almost exactly 138.2% of a-wave, which is a nice Fibonacci relationship required in a triangle.

REPRINTED 2/7/2009


6/6

DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER WARNING DISCLAIMER

This report should not be interpreted as investment advice of anykind. This report is technical commentary only. The author isNOT representing himself as a CTA or CFA or Investment/TradingAdvisor of any kind. This merely reflects the authorsinterpretation of technical analysis. The author may or may nottrade in the markets discussed. The author may hold positionsopposite of what may by inferred by this report. The informationcontained in this commentary is taken from sources the author believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the author as tothe accuracy or completeness thereof and is sent to you for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and

is not for everyone.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)has said about futures trading: Trading commodity futures andoptions is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX ANDRISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience,goals and financial resources, and know how much you can affordto lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. Youshould understand commodity futures and options contracts andyour obligations in entering into those contracts. You shouldunderstand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading bythoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker isrequired to give you.

Wave Symbology

"I" or "A" = Grand SupercycleI or A = Supercycle

or = Cycle-I- or -A- = Primary(I) or (A) = Intermediate"1 or "a" = Minor 1 or a = Minute

-1- or -a- = Minuette

(1) or (a) = Sub-minuette[1] or [a] = Micro[.1] or [.a] = Sub-Micro

wednesday update 10 march 2010

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