webrtc market trends & dynamics - rtc...
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WebRTC Market Trends & Dynamics
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
IIT RTC Conference, October 2015
[email protected] @disruptivedean
(Royalty-free images from pixabay.com)
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About Disruptive Analysis
Tech/telecom analyst house & futurist consulting
Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
Forecasting & anti-forecasting
Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs
Consultant & advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia
Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
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Most innovation occurs at intersections of trends
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
Chapter by Dean Bubley:
“The Future of the Phone Call”
Other Chapters cover:
AI & machine-learning
Analytics & Big Data
Contextual computing
Power of the crowd
Wearables & quantified-self
3D-printing
IoT, Robots & drones
Autonomous vehicles
Longevity & human enhancement
Green Tech & Food
Financial systems & money
Political & social change
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Background trend: “Peak telephone”
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
136%
74%
63%
40% 38%
15% 15%
5% 5% 1% 0%
0% - 7% - 7%
- 12% - 14% -14% -20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
IND CHN BRA RUS POL SGP FRA AUS JPN ITA KOR
GER NED USA ESP SWE UK
Source: Ofcom, IHS, Disruptive Analysis
Aggregate Fixed+Mobile Outgoing Voice
Telephony Volumes, Minutes, 2013 vs. 2008
UK telephony minutes down
4% more in 2014 vs 2013
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Communications purpose: Why = Where * How
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
Generic
communications
services &
systems
Where do we
communicate?
• Industry
• Application
• Geography
How do we
communicate?
• Video/voice
• Messaging
• Timelines
• UIs & APIs
Why do we
communicate?
• Outcomes
• Value
• Context
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Devices & IoT
WebRTC use-cases & platforms
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
Enterprise
Telcos & other SPs
Cloud PaaS, APIs & SDKs Tools & Enablers
Consumer Web/Apps
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WebRTC on >6bn devices by 2019
Million WebRTC
devices worldwide,
year-end
Source: Disruptive Analysis
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Other (TV+M2M/IoT)
Smartphones
Tablets
PCs
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WebRTC trajectory has changed
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Peer-to-Peer Gateways & extensions
Embedded & integral
Mobile
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WebRTC integrated & embedded in solutions
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Warning: NSFW!
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Mobile WebRTC is already mainstream
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Enterprise comms becoming “dis-unified”?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
UC
core
WebRTC APIs Customer
interaction
Collaboration &
conferencing
Vertical
apps
Mobility Horizontal
apps
UC extended by WebRTC Comms “disunified” by WebRTC
User UC
Conferencing
Contact
centre
Comms-enriched
apps & cloud
services
WCC & plug-ins
Standalone vertical
comms apps
Mobile apps
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Future Business Communications Scenario 1
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
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Future Business Communications Scenario 2
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Future Business Communications Scenario 3
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Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend on-net services
& IMS / SS7
Faster/ cheaper
web svcs & mobile apps
Sell packaged WebRTC
services to subscriber
Enhance developer platform
Strengthen enterprise &
verticals
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
Also:
Content / IPTV / CDNs
invest / incubate /
acquire
Improve own CRM &
systems
M2M, devices etc
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Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
2 commercial SP offers
Telenor appear.in
+ 4 others
Sprint + 3 others
TF TokBox
AT&T API
+ 3 others
Telstra MyCare Manager
+ 3 others
Other
3 TV-oriented SP
WebRTC offers
4+ known internal use-
cases of WebRTC
2 messaging solutions
with WebRTC internals
Extend on-net services & IMS / SS7
Developer
platform
Faster/ cheaper
standalone apps
Core services
extension
Enterprise /
verticals
Resale /
partnership
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WebRTC platform & vendor ecosystem complex
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
WebRTC PaaS &
gateways
Telcos / SPs
Acting as integrator / reseller
Built into unique service
Systems Integrators
General IT
integrator
Software & app vendors
3rd party apps & plfms
In-house
Consultants & agencies
WebRTC specialist
Digital & mobile design
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Lead WebRTC use-cases, Oct 2015
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC report update Oct 2015
• Contact centres / support • Consumer video-chat • Developer SDKs/platforms • Conferencing extensions
• Workstream collaboration • Education/training/healthcare • Video ID-checking • Novel & non-telephony VoIP • CDNs, File/screen-sharing • IPTV & personal broadcast
Live & commercial
• Full-scale corporate conferencing • Vertical-specific UC & collaboration • Telco VoLTE/IMS extension • Telco internal • Early IoT use-cases
Pilots / pre-
commercial
Trials & demos
• Entertainment & consumer electronics • Mainstream M2M & IoT • Public Safety
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WebRTC user base: expect rapid growth
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2015 October 2015
Million
Internet
users,
year-end
Source: Disruptive Analysis preliminary forecasts, Oct 2015 Note: exclude M2M & CDN use
Based on individuals
Includes personal + work use
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ALTERED by
context
???? Other
definitions
“Context” in context: types of comms
IN context
(eg in-app)
USING
contextual
data
WITH context
(eg cross-
channel or
agent)
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Conclusions
>100m users (regular / occasional)
Device / browser support advancing fast
Multiple usage domains (consumer, business…)
Aligns with direction of communications:
Fragmented
Purposeful
Contextual
Vertical
Cloud-based
Mobile
“Beyond the call”
Complex for vendors & SPs to navigate / monetise
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