webcast about the 1st quarter results 2011 - ifrs
TRANSCRIPT
1
May
17th, 2011
Conference
Call/Webcast
Almir Guilherme Barbassa CFO and
Investor
Relations
Officer
Results
Announcement1st Quarter
2011
(IFRS)
2
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions , company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward- looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among othe r things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2011 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
DISCLAIMER
3
o
Record net income;
o
Start‐up
of
pre‐salt
EWT
in
Campos
and
Santos
Basins: Brava,
Tracajá
and Lula Northeast;
o
New
oil
discoveries
in
Santos
Basin
pre‐salt
area,
such
as
Carioca Northeast and Macunaíma;
o
Start‐up of gas pipelines linking Lula Pilot and Mexilhão
platform
and connecting Caraguatatuba
and Taubaté
(Gastau);
o
New
diesel
and
naphtha
HDT
units
in
RPBC,
REGAP
and
REVAP
refineries;
o
US$ 6 billion Bond issuance of 5, 10 and 30 year.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE QUARTER
4
MAIN INDICATORS
1Q11 4Q10∆%
1Q11 X 4Q101Q10
EBITDA (R$/million) 16,093 14,584 10% 15,076
OPERATING INCOME¹
(R$/million) 12,536 10,773 16% 11,617
NET INCOME²
(R$/million) 10,985 10,602 4% 7,726
AVERAGE REALIZATION PRICES –
ARP (R$/bbl) 163.58 158.89 3% 157.39
AVERAGE REALIZATION PRICES –
ARP (U$/bbl) 98.15 93.66 5% 87.29
Brent (US$/bbl) 104.97 86.48 21% 76.24
Average sales dollar (R$) 1.67 1.70 ‐2% 1.80
Production (thousand bbl/day) 2,627 2,628 ‐ 2.547
¹ Income before financial results, profit sharing and taxes² Net income attributable to Petrobras shareholders
5
2,302 2,385
245 242
OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION – 1Q11 VS 1Q10
341
2,0441,985
317
2,3022,627
1Q10 1Q11
2,547 2,385
(tho
usbp
d)
1Q10 1Q11
Total Production (daily average) Brazilian Production (daily average)
Brazil
International
Oil and NGL
Natural Gas
o
Increase
in
production
due
to
ramp‐up
of
installed
units
in
2010
in
Campos
Basin,
Lula
Pilot,
and
EWTs
of
Tiro, Sidon and Guará;
o
Start‐up of new wells in Akpo
and Agbami
(Nigeria) partially offset by decline of mature fields in Argentina
and Colombia;
o
Investments
in
infrastructure
and
new
NG
production
units
contributed
to
a
supply
growth
of
8%
when
compared 1Q11 VS 1Q10.
4%
‐1%
+3%
3%
8%
+4%
6
‘
SANTOS BASIN PRE‐SALT UPDATE
o
Approval of chartering of 2 new
FPSOs
for
the
Guará‐Norte and Cernambi
projects;
o
New
discovery
of
good
quality
oil
in
the
pre‐
salt
reservoirs
of
block
BM‐S‐9,
informally
known as Carioca Nordeste;
o
Discovery
of
a
new
accumulation
of
good
quality
oil
in
Parati
(BM‐S‐10),
named
Macunaíma;
o
8
new
drilled
wells
in
2011,
taking
Santos
Basin Pre‐Salt total to 28 wells drilled;
o
PLANSAL Revision;
o
Start up of Lula Nordeste
EWT;
o
Restart of Guará
EWT;
o
The
current
fleet
of
drilling
rigs
(6)
will
increase to 11 by the and of the year.
7
PLANSALCONTINUOUS PROJECTS OPTIMIZATION SINCE THE FIRST PLANSAL IN 2008
Cap
exN
et P
rese
nt
Valu
e
Transfer of Rights
Areas UnderConcession
Areas UnderConcession
8
EWT Results:
o
Steady
Production
without
decline
during the test;
o
Good behavior of the reservoirs;
o
Excellent lateral communication;
o
No flow assurance issues;
o
Restriction due to gas flaring limits.
EXTENDED WELL TESTS IN PRE‐SALT
6 EWT completed and 4 still underway
9
DRILLING OPTIMIZATION IN THE SANTOS PRE‐SALT
o
Since the beginning of the activities in the Santos pre‐salt, the drilling time has decreased, reducing Capex.
* Wells ordered by drilling duration.
10
20
70
120
170
220
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
ARP USA ARP Petrobras
R$/bbl
o
Oil price volatility in the quarter (Brent went from US$ 86,48 in the 4Q10 to US$ 104,97 in the 1Q11) due to
geopolitical issues in North Africa, especially in Libya.
AVERAGE REALIZATION PRICE
94
747370
3249
6472
80
105
867778
44
5968
75 76
20
40
60
80
100
120
1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
Petrobras Oil Price (Average) Brent (US$/bbl)
US$/bbl
1Q11 AVERAGEARP Petrobras: 163.58ARP USA: 180.54
2010 AVERAGEARP Petrobras: 158.26ARP USA: 150.67
11
175.30
147.02
134.51137.23 140.16
LIFTING COST IN BRAZIL
16.95
26.87
17.54
26.37
18.46
24.26
17.34
26.13
19.00
31.66
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
50.6643.82 43.91 42.72 43.47
104.97
86.48
76.8678.3076.24
9.40
14.33
9.79
14.71
10.60
14.07
10.29
15.29
11.38
19.10
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
30.48
23.73 24.50 24.67 25.58
o
1Q11 vs. 4Q10 Comparison:
o
Lifting cost increased due to higher expenses with well intervention and scheduled stoppages;
o
Higher government take due to higher reference oil price.
R$/barrel US$/barrel
Lifting CostBrent Government Take
12
733 841 796
410414 439
203219 208
505578 525
1Q10 4Q10 1Q11
OIL PRODUCTS NATURAL GAS
OIL PRODUCTS AND NATURAL GAS SALES IN DOMESTIC MARKET
Thou
s. bpd
1.8512.052 1.968
DIESEL
GASOLINE
LPG
OTHERS
o
Domestic oil products sales increased 6% in the 1Q11 vs
1Q10 comparison, due to the Brazilian economy growth;
o
Jet Fuel sales increased 18% in the 1Q11 vs. 1Q10;
o
Natural Gas sales increased 13% (1Q11 vs
1Q10), due to industrial and power generation demand.
Thermal
Non thermal227 238 245
46125
30
1Q10 4Q10 1Q11
257
363
291
13
OPERATING RESULTS –
BRAZILIAN REFINING
Thous. Barrels/day %Crude Oil Processed Oil Products Production Utilization Factor and
Brazilian Oil Throughput
(*) Utilization Factor reached 92.1% in March/2011
(*)
682 727
73 92353
390
239244
418424
0
300
600
900
1.200
1.500
1.800
2.100
1Q10 1Q11
Diesel Jet Fuel Gasoline
Fuel Oil Others
6.5%
6.4%
1,7651,877
1,397 1,520
341332
1,7381,852
-
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
1.800
2.000
1Q10 1Q11
Imported Oil ProcessedBrazilian Oil Processed
86.2
89.8
80.482.1
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
1Q10 1Q11
Utilization Factor - Brazil
Brazilian Oil Throughput
Thous. Barrels/day
o
Increase in crude oil processed in the 1Q11 due to revamps and refining expansions during 2010. Schedule stoppages
in the 1Q10 also contributed to the increase.
14
(R$ Million)
OPERATING INCOME 1Q11 vs
4Q10 (CONSOLIDATED)
4Q10Operating Income
Sales Revenues
COGS Expenses 1Q11Operating Income
Other
Expenses
10,77312,536
3081,016 (188)627
o
Positive effect on COGS due to inventories built at lower prices
in the 4Q10 (R$ 1.2 billion);
o
Decrease in Expenses due to lower exploratory costs (R$ 425 million) and SG&A expenses (R$ 210 million).
15
(R$ Million)
1Q11Net Income
4Q10
Net Income
Taxes Minority
Interest
Financial
Results
Interest in
Investments
Operating
Income
NET INCOME 1Q11 vs
4Q10 (CONSOLIDATED)
10,6021,763 96 (1,189)(112)
(175) 10,985
o
Higher income taxes due to lower tax benefit from Interest on Capital in the 1Q11 (R$ 754 million).
16
EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTIONOperating Income 1Q11 vs 4Q10
Volume Effect on Revenues
Volume Effect on COGS
Operat. Expenses
1Q11Operat. Income
4Q10Operat. Income
Cost Effect on COGS
Price Effect on Revenues
(R$ Million)
(815)(507)(786) 388 14,142
3,983
11,879
o
Negative volume effect due to lower sales/oil transfers to Downstream;
o
Increase in COGS due to higher lifting costs and government take.
o
Higher lifting costs partially offset by lower DD&A ( ‐
R$ 1,01 per barrel);
17
DOWNSTREAMOperating Income 1Q11 vs 4Q10
(R$ Million)
1,508
2,676
1,466 43
(4,690)
(1,497)
(494)
Volume Effect on Revenues
Volume Effect on COGS
Operat. Expenses
1Q11Operat. Income
4Q10Operat. Income
Cost Effect on COGS
Price Effect on Revenues
o
Positive price effect due to higher oil and oil products prices,
especially reflected on exports;
o
Sales of oil and oil products inventories built at lower prices in the 4Q10 avoided higher increase in COGS.
18
GAS & POWER, INTERNATIONAL and DISTRIBUTION (1Q11 vs 4Q10)
Gas
& P
ow
er
Inte
rnati
on
al
Dis
trib
uti
on
VS.
FPSO Campo de Akpo
o Higher average market prices of natural gas and reduction of acquisition/transfer costs of domestic gas;
o Lower LNG imports and consumption volume;
o Commercialization margins gains on power energy, due to average cost reduction at the spot market.
o Earnings increased due to higher commodities prices;
o Lower exploratory expenses and dry wells write-offs also contributed to a better result.
o 6% increase in commercialization margins offset by 7% reduction in sales volume;
o This increase was compensated by the 7% reduction in sales volumes.
41%
(R$ Million)
Operat. Income: R$ 745 R$ 529 1Q11 4Q10
VS.
Operat. Income: R$ 903 R$ 272 1Q11 4Q10
VS.
Operat. Income: R$ 559 R$ 443 1Q11 4Q10
232%
26%
19
INVESTMENTS 1Q2011 vs 1Q2010
R$ 17.8 billion1Q2010
R$ 15.9 billion1Q2011
E&P*7.2
G&P* ‐
1.0
RTM*6.0
Inter ‐
0.9
Others* 0.8
(R$ billion)
E&P*7.9
G&P* ‐
2.4
RTM*5.4
Inter ‐
1.5
Others 0.6
(R$ billion)
*Includes projects developed by SPEs
o
E&P: Decreased investments as a result of reduced exploration expending for the quarter;
o
RTM: Expansion (33%), quality (37%) and others (30%);
o
G&P: Complementary phase of investments, after massive infrastructure built.
20
o
Petrobras`
Leverage
level
kept
stable
when compared 1Q11 VS 4Q10;
o
QoQ
higher
long
term
debt is
explained
by
bonds
issuance
(
US$
6
billion), last January.
LEVERAGE
R$ Billion 03/31/11 12/31/10
Short Term Debt 16.6 15.7
Long Term Debt 112.4 102.2
Total Debt 129.0 117.9
Cash and Cash Equivalents 43.3 30.3
Tradeable
Securities 19.6 25.5
Adjusted Cash and Cash Equivalents 62.9 55.8
Net Debt 66.1 62.1
Net Debt/Ebitda 1.03X 1.03X
US$ Billion 03/31/11 12/31/10
Net Debt 40.6 37.3
17%17%16%32%34%
1.35 1.031.030.941.52
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Net Debt/Net Cap. Net Debt/Ebitda
