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Air travel has been getting popular every year. As it becomes oftused ,risk of having an incident & accident also rises. If an incident happens ,travellers think twice whether they should buy an air ticket or take the other alternative. Therefore, it affects airline business in a short run by losing passengers for several reasons until they improve one’s image. There are some airlines serves at Oceania region which had mishaps in the past and derived lessons from the mistakes.

Tiger Airways is one of the airline serving at the Oceania vicinity and had numerous incidents in last 7 years. Following charts show reasons of incidents ,A/C types & dates.

Tiger Airways Incidents

Tiger Boeing 737-800 at Sydney on Jul 12th 2018, cabin pressurization not armed

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Melbourne on Jul 19th 2018, lightning strike

Tiger Airbus A-320 near Brisbane on Jun 21st 2018, burning odour on board

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Sydney and Perth on Mar 3rd 2014, incorrect flight plan and fuel issues

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Singapore on Oct 16th 2015, engine access door separated in flight

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Cairns on Jan 21st 2017, takeoff clearance cancelled due to wrong line up

Tiger Airbus A-320 near Ho Chi Minh City on Jan 6th 2017, burning odour in cabin

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Macau on Nov 8th 2016, engine shut down in flight

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Hong Kong on Nov 5th 2016, bird strike cracks windshield

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Singapore and Haikou on Jun 11th 2015, damaged tyre on takeoff

Tiger Airbus A-320 near Adelaide on Mar 15th 2015, electrical odour in cabin

Tiger Airbus A-320 near Sydney on Jul 26th 2014, oil fumes in cabin

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Coolangatta on Apr 21st 2014, rejected takeoff

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Adelaide on Feb 23rd 2014, engine failure

Tiger Airbus A-320 near Avalon on Jun 30th 2011, reportedly descended below minimum safe altitude

Tiger Airbus A-320 at Melbourne on Jun 7th 2011, descended below minimum safe altitude

201830%

201720%

201620%

201530%

INCIDENTS

2018201720162015

201467%

201133%

INCIDENTS

2014201320122011

There are numerous important significant factors that have greater impact on aviation safety. This paper explains the impact of incidents on aviation safety. Incidents induce rough flight, causes severe discomfort, even injury to the passengers, influence the reputation and economy of the country. These factors increase the probability of other factors to come into play and increase the probability of incident to occur which leads to occurrence of a severe flight failure. Factors such as bird strike and earthquake can destroy airport, aircraft facilities and engine failure.

There are many incidents between 2018-2011 years. However, there are not any accidents for Tiger airway. Some researches indicate that incidents and accidents have many social influences and public perception in aviation industry. When an incident happens, the media usually exaggerates the consequences and people may worry about airline safety management, resulting in loss of passengers and social panic. This situation always affects airlines business strategies and economies negatively. Airline’s priorities have always safety management with maximize profit but if incidents rate increases, their reputation and safety management system decrease inevitably.

Another Airline serving at the same area is Air New Zealand. Table 1,2 & 3 belongs to Air New Zealand

TABLE 1;

This table is from 2012 until 2019 from Air New Zealand. As it can be seen, there are 34 different types of incidents. There is a pleasing point that there are no accidents.

Additionally, there are 10 types of aircraft involved in these accident/incident balance sheet.

Now, let’s look at which type of aircraft has been involved in more incidents, in which years there have been more incidents.

Year Aircraft Type Type of accidents Type of incidents

2012 B773 - Medical Emergency

2012 A320 - Rejected Take-off twice

2012 A320 - Engine shut down in flight

2012 B773 - Pilot incapacitated

2012 A320 - Bird strike

2012 A320 - Unusual odour prompts return

2012 A320 - Air Conditioning fault

2012 B773 - Hydraulic failure

2013 B763 - Unsafe gear

2013 A320 - Fuel problems

2013 B772 - Engine shut down in flight



2013 B763 - Engine failulre


2014 A320 - Engine shut down in flight

2014 B733 - Descended below decision height without visual reference


2014 B772 - First officer locked out of cockpit

2014 B763 - Generator failure

2014 B789 - Lightning strike


2015 B733 - Runway excursion on landing


2015 B733 - Bird strike

2015 B763 - Engineering issue

2015 A320 - Cabin did not pressurize


2015 A763 - Engineering issue

2015 A320 - Cabin did not pressurize


2015 A763 - Uncooperative fuel gauge

2015 B772 - Blew over plane spotters

2015 A320 - Near collision with drone

2016 B772 - Could not retract gear

2016 AT72 - Haze and odour of burning rubber on board

2016 A320 - Lightning strike

2016 B789 - Electrical burning odour on board



2016 B733 - Loss of cabin pressure

2016 B789 - Deflated tyre indication

2016 B763 - Turbulence causes 4 injuries

2017 A320 - Severe hard landing

2017 A320 - Problems with air conditioning

2017 B772 - Captain incapacitated




2018 B789 - Cabin did not pressurize


2018 B789 - Engine problem




2018 A789 - Engine oil problem

2018 B773 - Descended below decision height without visual reference

2018 B772 - Windshield heating problem

2018 A320 - Flaps problem

2019 A320 - Unsafe gear

2019 A320 - First officer locked out of cockpit

2019 B789 - Lightning strike

2019 A320 - Could not retract gear

TABLE 2;

In this chart, we will examine which type of aircraft is involved in more incidents & which year involved most incidents

-A320 is the aircraft which mostly involved in the incidents. As you can see, A320 was involved in 27 incidents from 2012 to 2019.

-B773 aircraft type involved 8 incidents.

-B772 aircraft type included 6 incidents.

-B789 and B744 aircraft types were involved 5 incidents.

-AT72,B733 and B763 aircrafts types were involved only 1 incidents.

Also, 2015 is the year with 13 incidents.

-In 2018, there were 11 incidents. The least incident was year 2019. There were 4 incidents in 2019.

Count of Type of

Column Labels

incidents

Row Labels A320 A763 A789 AT72 B733 B744 B763 B772 B773 B789

2012 5 3

2013 2 1 1 2 1

2014 2 1 1 1 1

2015 5 2 2 2 2

2016 2 1 1 1 2 2

2017 4 1

2018 4 1 1 2 3

2019 3 1

Grand Total 27 2 1 1 5 1 6 8 5 7

TABLE 3;

We will examine a variety of types of incidents such as;

-Air Conditioning fault, Bird Strike, Blew over plane spotters, Cabin didn’t pressurize, Captain incapacitated, Could not rectact gear, Deflated tyre indication, Descended below decision height without visual reference, Electrical burning odour on board, Engine failure, Engine oil problem, Engine problem, First officer locked out ot cockpit, Flaps problem and Engineering issue… According to this graph, ‘’Engine shut down in flight’’ is the most frequent incident type. Second place involves 2 types of incidents such as ‘’Lighting strike and Bird strike.’’

Rejected has take-off twice is third most repeated incidents’ type.

Total0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 Air Condition-ing faultBird strikeBlew over plane spottersCabin did not pressurizeCaptain in-capacitatedCould not re-tract gearDeflated tyre indicationDescended be-low decision height without visual refer-enceElectrical burn-ing odour on boardEngine failulreEngine oil prob-lemEngine problem

Third Airline serving at Oceania vicinity is Virgin Australia. Following chart represents number of incidents & accidents happened in last 7 years by Virgin Australia’s Aircrafts:

YEAR

NUMBE

R OF I

NCIDEN

T

NUMBER O

F ACC

IDENT

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Data

Chart of NUMBER OF ACCIDENT; NUMBER OF INCIDENT

As it can be seen on the chart ,Virgin Australia Airlines had several accidents & a lot of incidents in last 7 years due to some reasons such as technical errors ,wake turbulance caused by another bigger A/C ,windshear ,unusual odour in the cabin ,Adverse weather conditions ,suspected bird strike & human error. Aviation sector is an expensive sector and It only stands to reason that Virgin Australia faced

economic consequences of incidents & accidents which could be repair of a part of the aircraft was broken ,out of the service or structural failure. Nonetheless ,it does not only cost to airline in terms of spare part but also relationship of media exaggeration and social impact. Media has strong influence on people. It is demonsrated in a recent research that two different surveys were done before and after Transasia crash and there were significant change on number of passenger who is thinking flying is safe with Transasia. Therefore, people’s observation changes tremendously after incident or accident occurs because they think skeptical about air travel . In addition to that, stock price fluctuation in an unexpected events also effects to airline in a short term. (Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, 2015). Under these circumstances ,impacts of accidents on society effects airline economy.

To have a look from another angle ,aviation sector is reactive that each mishaps causes to new precautions to minimize risk of the same mishaps. New precautions may cause more costs. For example, changing Flight itinerary ,technology and insurance cost more. Terrorist attack that brought down the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in Ukraine on July 17, many airlines such as Jet Airways, Air India, KLM, Air France, Alitalia, and Lufthansa announced to avoid the Ukrainian airspace by taking a detour around eastern Ukraine.( Taneja, T. Arshad, M. 2014). Also, because of war in Syria ,Syria aerospace was abandoned from commercial flights for a long time.Therefore , more miles an aircraft flies ,more it consumes fuel and costs more to airlines. Following chart shows A/C Types & number of accidents they involved:

Embra

er ER

J-190

Boein

g 777-

300

Boein

g 737-

800

Boein

g 737-

700

ATR A

TR-72

-200

Airbu

s A-32

0

Airbu

s A-33

0-200

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

A/C TYPE

NUM

BER

OF IN

CIDE

NTS

Individual Value Plot of NUMBER OF INCIDENTS95% CI for the Mean

Individual standard deviations are used to calculate the intervals.

B-737-800 is the aircraft which involved majority of the incidents & accidents in the Virgin Australia Airline’s fleet. Aircrafts which involved in an accident are following:ATR ATR-72-200: Hard landing and tail strike. Boeing 737-800: Turbulance injuries two cabin crew.Airbus A-330-200: Two cabin crew incapacitated by unusual fumesATR ATR-72-200: Suspected bird strike.

Virgin AusTiger AirAir New Zealand

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Airlines

Incide

ntsChart of Incidents

Virgin AusTiger AirAir New Zealand

4

3

2

1

0

Airlines

Accide

nts

Chart of Accidents

On the chart above, there are two comparison btw 3 airlines. Air New Zealand is on the first step having more incidents than others. Virgin Australia is second after Air New Zealand. Finally ,Tiger Airways having minimum amount of incidents in last 7 year. Therefore ,we can understand from the chart that the safest airline is Tiger Airway amoung these 3 airlines.Althought ,Air New Zealand at the first step of the incident chart ,they haven’t had any accident in last 7 years same as Tiger Airways. However ,Virgin Australia had 4 accident in last 7 years periot.

ATR-72-212A A/C, registration VH-FVZ performing flight VA-646 from Sydney,NS to Canberra,AC (Australia) with 67 passengers and 5 crew, was on final approach to Canberra's RWY 35 when the A/C encountered windshear & touched down hard ,the tail skid & fuselage contacted the runway surface. The A/C rolled out without further incident. No injuries were reported.Australia's TSB reported the A/C sustained substantial damage, rated the occurrence an accident & opened an investigation.

On Jan 23rd in 2018 the ATSB (Australian Transportation Safety Board) reported the captain was pilot monitoring, the first officer was pilot flying, in addition a check captain was on the observer seat conducting the annual line check on the captain. The crew conducted a visual approach to Canberra's runway 35 with a computed Vapp of 113 KIAS. The crew reported that at a height of 107 feet they were slightly above approach profile when they encountered turbulence and changing winds. The ATSB reported the FDR showed the airspeed increased to 127 KIAS, the first officer restarted the power levers to nearly flight idle in response. Within the next 9 seconds the rate of decent increased significantly & the speed reduced, the captain called twice for an increase in power & finally called a go around. The first officer responded by increasing power just as the aircraft hit the runway surface hard on main gear and aft fuselage. Assessing the aircraft was under control the captain immediately cancelled the go around, took control of the aircraft, rolled the aircraft out without further incident and taxied the aircraft to the gate. The captain made according entries in the tech log, a subsequent maintenance inspection revealed substantial damage.As a consequence, the ATSB described the weather conditions: "Recorded weather observations at Canberra Airport indicated that at the time of the accident, there was scattered cloud at about 7,000 ft above mean sea level, no precipitation, visibility in excess of 10 km, and a moderate north-easterly wind of about 16 kt. The approach to runway 35 passes over undulating higher ground, which can be a source of mechanical turbulence. The flight crew reported that they regularly experienced turbulence at all stages of approach and landing at Canberra." Investigation still continuing.

All in all, incidents & accidents happen as the traffic level grows but learning lessons from the mistake is an important thing to not have similar mishaps. In this way ,we could avoid extra cost to airline such as maintenance because of structural failure or social impact caused by media exaggeration.

Zeynep Nur ÇiğdemEmin Can SiyimerGöksel Hüseyin Özçolak

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