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MUN@UWCSEA | October 11th - 13th 2019

Forum: Economic and Social Committee

Issue: Discussing the potential economic solutions to cope with global overpopulation

Name: Yuvan Anand

Position: Deputy Chair of the Economic and Social Committee

Introduction:As of June 2019 the world’s population stands at 7.7 million, almost double the

population 40 years ago. Global overpopulation is a worldwide issue that could have

devastating effects for both the planet and humanity. While our earth may seem large

enough to sustain overpopulation, we must remember that 71% of it is covered by

water, and much of the land surface is uninhabitable. The resources on and in the earth,

such as fossil fuels, are finite, and we are using them at an unsustainable rate.

However, even with these limiting factors, our world population continues to grow at

almost uncontrollable rates.

According to the World Population Clock, the world population has already grown by 37

million since January 2019 . This rate of growth is highly unsustainable, especially if we

want to ensure a high quality of life for all. This is because as there are more births, we

have to share the same amount of resources between a larger amount of people,

meaning resources are more scarce.

This connects to the basic economic problem of finite resources and infinite wants.

Economics, as a field, aims to allocate resources keeping in mind both efficiency and

equity. Overpopulation will increase the strain on our draining resources, and

considering this, we must try and use economics to solve the issue.

The population issue also has given birth to a multitude of other issues, all of which

would not be nearly as significant if the world population was reduced. Whether our

primary concern is clean air, pure water, the elimination of pollution, conservation of

wildlife and countryside, more food, the elimination of poverty or a higher standard of

living generally, our chances of achieving any of these things diminish as the population

increases. (ypte, 2018).

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Finally, there is a major problem that arises when trying to solve this issue . The

countries with the highest populations, and highest projected population growths are

developing or yet to develop countries. Developed countries have already

industrialised, had their population boom and are now seeing it stagnate. This means

that, if potential solutions aim to halt population growth in a country such as Nigeria, we

must be careful not to interfere with its potential economic growth while implementing it.

If restrictions were to be placed on a country such as this, it would put them at a

disadvantage versus already developed countries.

Definition of Key Terms:1. Overpopulation: Overpopulation is an undesirable condition where the number

of existing human population exceeds the carrying capacity of Earth.

2. Carrying Capacity: The carrying capacity of a biological species in an

environment is the maximum population size of the species that the environment

can sustain indefinitely, given the food, habitat, water, and other necessities

available in the environment.

3. The Basic Economic Problem: The case of unlimited human wants and limited

resources, therefore forcing humans to make decisions about how to allocate

scarce resources.

4. Family Planning: The practice of controlling the number of children one has

and the intervals between their births, particularly by means of contraception or

voluntary sterilization.

5. Contraception: The deliberate use of artificial methods or other techniques to

prevent pregnancy as a consequence of sexual intercourse. This can be very

effective in slowing population growth.

6. Industrialisation: The development of industries in a country or region on a

wide scale, which usually leads to a boom in population.

Background Information

Population growth in the past

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At the dawn of agriculture, around 8000 B.C., the population was approximately 5 million. Over

the 8,000-year period up to 1 A.D. it grew to around 200 million, with a growth rate of under

0.05% per year. A large change occurred with the industrial revolution. While it had taken all of

human history until around 1800 for world population to reach one billion, the second billion was

achieved in only 130 years in 1930, the third billion in 30 years in 1960, the fourth billion in 15

years in 1975, and the fifth billion in only 12 years in 1987. These figures are shown in Graph 1

below, as well as future projections done by the UN. As the population of industrialised

countries is stabilizing, the population of developing countries, such as India or China, continues

to increase.

Graph 1 - Bar chart representing the time taken for the population to increase by a billion (Our World In Data, 2019)

Industrialisation

A generally accepted consensus is that the industrialisation of a country leads to a boom

in its population. This is seen in the case of the United Kingdom , the first country to

industrialise, during which, in a period of a hundred years, its population more than

doubled. Now, countries who have already industrialised y are not experiencing major

changes in population growth while countries that are still in the process of industrialising

are those contributing most to population growth. This includes countries such as India

and China, as well as those in the African region.

One child policy

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The one child policy was part of a birth planning program conducted by the Chinese

government between 1979 and 2015 to reduce their population growth. It was perhaps

the most extreme example of population control in recorded human history. This policy

stated that every family could only have one child. and according to the Chinese

government, it prevented 400 million births; however, this claim can be debated. While

this was may not have been the right way to go about solving the issue of

overpopulation, delegates may want to keep the policy in mind while formulating

solutions.

Contraception and Family planning

Contraception has always been recognised as a way of population control. As of 2019,

an estimated 38% of married women, or women living with a partner, do not use

contraception. This is a staggering number, yet, it is better than in the past as that

number was 64% in 1970. The increase in use and availability of contraceptives

worldwide may help to explain the continuous decrease in population growth rate shown

in the next section.

Current Situation

Graphs

As stated previously, the world population now stands at 7.7 billion people. There are several

ways of looking at population growth, and a few of these key graphs are shown below:

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Graph 2 - UN medium projection of world population from 1750 to 2100 (Our World in Data, 2015)

This graph illustrates the estimated population increase from 2015 until 2100 based on current

trends, estimates of available resources and other factors. As can be seen, our current rate of

population growth will likely continue until around the year 2100. This is generally agreed upon;

however, the cause of this plateau is still being debated. Some suggest this may happen due to

a ‘great die out’ caused by the earth not being able to sustain that much human life; however, if

we act soon, it could be due to our own vigilance halting population growth.

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Graph 3 - Line graph showing the percentage increase in global population over the years (Our World in Data, 2015)

This graph shows previous and estimated population growth per year - the percent by which the

world population grows by every year. Though we may not see it in real life, the world’s annual

growth rate is actually decreasing. This can be seen as a positive; however, does not mean that

overpopulation is not an issue at all. Even though our annual percentage increase in population is

expected to decrease, the population itself is still growing, meaning that this graph can be

deceiving.

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Graph 4 - Comparison of the projected population growth versus projected annual world population growth rate. (Essentially a combination of Graphs 2 and 3). (Our World in Data, 2015)

Graph 5 - Population cartogram showing the distribution of population across different countries. (Our world in data, 2018)

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This cartogram shows the distribution of the population across the globe, with higher populated

countries taking up more space. As can be seen, India and China especially dominate this map,

yet in the near future, the African region is expected to take up a much larger area. This map may

show which areas need to be targeted for overpopulation; however, we must remember that

population is constantly changing and that many countries have already gone through population

booms.

The causes of and factors affecting overpopulation

There are 2 main factors that control the world population, and these are explained below. These

2 main factors come from a simple ‘word equation’ which is:

Populationgrowth=Birth rate−Death rate

Decline in the Death RatePopulation growth happens when birth rate is greater than death rate. Therefore, when

death rate declines, the population experiences growth. According to Conserve Energy

Future, the first major time this happened was during the first agricultural revolution

when the increased nutrition in diets meant that people died less often, therefore

increasing population growth. Within this sub-topic, other than an increase in food

availability, factors that decrease death rate include: an increase in availability and

quality of medical care, an increase in safety, a decrease in conflict worldwide and a

decrease in poverty. Because the UN considers these factors extremely important, in

order to solve overpopulation, it seems increasing death rate may not be a good

solution. . In other words, increasing death rate is both unsatisfactory and immoral, so

what may be the best option, and another cause of overpopulation, is an increase in

birth rate.

Increase in birth rate

This is a factor that is seen more in developing countries than developed countries. One

major contributor to this is an increase in poverty. This may seem contradictory as it

was stated earlier that a decrease in poverty increases population; however, both of

these factors can coexist. An increase in poverty usually leads to a decrease in

education and literacy. This, in turn, leads to a decrease in knowledge of family planning

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and contraceptives use, potentially causing a higher chance of a large family which is a

major contributor to population growth. Another way an increase in birth rate happens is

an increase in technologies regarding fertility treatment. With the latest technological

advancements, it has become possible for couples who are unable to conceive to

undergo fertility treatment methods and have their own babies. This increases the birth

rate, which causes a population increase. Another major reason for a high birth rate is

culture. In many cultures, it is both encouraged and expected for a couple to have many

kids. In some patriarchal societies, a couple may keep having kids until they have a boy,

due to a desire for a ‘successor’. As such, for many people, especially those with little

education, having a single child is rarely an option.

Major Parties Involved and Their Views

China and India

According to the UN World Population Prospects, China and India currently make up 36.15% of

the total world population. This is a large number for only 2 countries. For this reason, they are

both major parties in this issue and their policies could have global effects. One major cause of

population growth for both of these countries has been their culture of having large families,

which delegates may want to focus on when formulating solutions

China

China currently has an estimated population of 1.42 billion people. According to World

Population Prospects; however, its population is expected to rise to 1.44 billion in 10

years and it is expected that by 2050, the population will have decreased to 1.36 billion.

One speculated reason for this was the ‘One Child Policy’ of the Chinese government

which has had disastrous effects on their population. One effect of this is a large aging

population which become impactful in around 10 years. It is expected that, due to this

aging population, China’s population will start decreasing by 2033, and this will also

greatly hinder their economic development. This stands as a good example of the

consequences of a wrong decision, even if the intentions were right.

India

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While India’s current population is estimated at 1.37 billion it may pose an even larger

threat to global population growth than China. According to World Population Review, its

population is expected to peak in 2060, at a population of 1.68 billion people, overtaking

China by as soon as 2028. India currently, like most of the world, recognises the threat

of overpopulation, but it is not their primary concern.

The African Region

Africa is expected to account for more than half of the world's population growth over the

next 35 years. This means that, though it may not seem prominent now, we must already start

to look for solutions to prevent, or deal with this population boom. By 2050, Nigeria will replace

the US as the world's third most populous country, showing a shift in population from the west

and east to Africa. The populations of 28 African countries are projected to more than double,

and by 2100, 10 African countries are projected to have increased by at least five times. All of

these statistics show how vital this region could be in shaping the issue in the future.

UN Involvement, Relevant Resolutions, Treaties and Events

The UN has long been involved in the global issue of overpopulation, mainly through 2 main UN

organisations: the United Nations Population Fund (https://www.unfpa.org / ), and the United

Nations Population Division (http://tinyurl.com/y6eh8rhg).

● United Nations World Population Plan of action - 1974 (E/CONF.60/19)

(http://tinyurl.com/y325c7cw)

o This plan of action was adopted by the UN General Assembly in 1974. Though it

was largely not acted upon, it contains many good ideas.

● Follow-up to the International Conference on Population and Development beyond 2014

(A/RES/67/250)

● The United Nations commission on Population and Development

(http://tinyurl.com/y3jufn96)

● International Conference on Population and Development (A/RES/47/176)

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● Report of the International Conference on Population and Development (A/RES/49/128)

Please note that there are many other resolutions that focus on this issue, many of which are

simply procedural and go over how meetings will be set up.

Possible Solutions

Please note that these are simply ideas and making a resolution is up to the discretion of

delegates.

● Subsidising the production of contraception,

○ If production of contraception were subsidised, then more of it would be

sold in a market at a lower price. Two issues that often arise in third world

countries are a lack of availability of contraception and a high cost people

are not willing to pay. This solution could be effective in reducing

accidental pregnancies and slowing population growth.

● Increasing ‘sex education’,

○ Countries could encourage this and/or the UN could raise awareness. If

more people are aware of the existence and use of contraceptives, then it

would be more demanded in markets and the use of it would likely

increase.

● Encouraging doctors to recommend family planning,

○ If doctors can be encouraged (perhaps using some form of incentives) to

recommend family planning, then many couples may be more moved to

use it. Doctors are usually very trusted and the word of a doctor could

convince the couple to use it. Family planning could decrease the number

of kids an average couple have. It would be important that doctors would

also be mindful of certain religions where the use of contraception is not

permitted.

● Increasing education and literacy rates,

○ Higher education rates may mean that people will have a better

understanding of the issue of overpopulation and its effects. In addition,

education could change the traditional views in some parts of the world

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around large families. This solution could be done through the UN,

individual countries or NGOs.

● Rewarding families with less children or taxing families more as they have more

children. It is important to note that China has proved these methods rarely work.

○ If families are economically incentivised to have less children, then

population growth will start to decline. However, this would be highly

draining on the country’s resources, and people may start to have

undocumented children anyways. These incentives could be given by the

countries themselves. Care would have to be taken to ensure that this

solution does not encourage forced abortions or child abandonment.

● The creation of subcommittees to deal with population growth in specific regions

(e.g. Africa, South Asia, Middle East),

○ This would help because the issue of overpopulation has different causes

and will have different effects in different regions so tackling the issue as

a whole may be ineffective.

● Placing sanctions on countries with high populations and high projected

population growth,

○ This would incentivise these countries to take measures to reduce their

population growth, the collective effort of which could do a lot to reduce

the effect of overpopulation; however, this could be detrimental to those

countries that are still developing and whose population increase is

simply a result of economic growth.

Bibliography

Useful Links

Kurzgesagt - In a nutshell on overpopulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=QsBT5EQt348

Ted Talk describing the basics of overpopulation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=fNxctzyNxC0

Our World in data giving lots of statistics and graphs regarding population growth:

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

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A UN publication called “UN World Population Prospects”, which has a useful interactive

database: https://population.un.org/wpp/

A useful website for updated and current figures on population:

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

A good website to get information about your specific countries, and to compare them against

others: http://worldpopulationreview.com/

Works Cited

- United Nations, United Nations,

www.esa.un.org/PopPolicy/about_database.aspx.

- Brandon_BD. “10 Scary Charts That Show How the World's Population Is

Exploding.” Global Citizen, www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/world-population-

charts-today-future/.

- “Current World Population.” Worldometers, www.worldometers.info/world-

population/.

- Ford, Liz. “Rise in Use of Contraception Offers Hope for Containing Global

Population.” The Guardian, Guardian News and Media, 8 Mar. 2016,

www.theguardian.com/global-development/2016/mar/08/rise-use-contraception-

global-population-growth-family-planning.

- “India 'to Overtake China's Population by 2022' - UN.” BBC News, BBC, 30 July

2015, www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33720723.

- “Overpopulation.” Young People's Trust For the Environment, 12 Sept. 2014,

ww w. ypte.org.uk/factsheets/overpopulation/introduction?

hide_donation_prompt= 1 .

- “Overpopulation: Causes, Effects and Solutions.” Conserve Energy Future, 12

Apr. 2017, www.conserve-energy-future.com/causes-effects-solutions-of-

overpopulation.php.

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- Pletcher, Kenneth. “One-Child Policy.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia

Britannica, Inc., 14 Mar. 2019, www.britannica.com/topic/one-child-policy.

- “Policy - United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and

Social Affairs.” United Nations, United Nations,

www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/theme/policy/index.asp.

- “Population.” United Nations, United Nations, www.un.org/en/sections/issues-

depth/population/index.html.

- Roser, Max, et al. “World Population Growth.” Our World in Data, 9 May 2013,

www.ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth.

- “United Nations Population Division | Department of Economic and Social

Affairs.” United Nations, United Nations,

www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/generalassembly/

resolutions/index.asp.

- “World Population Plan of Action.” United Nations, United Nations,

www.un.org/popin/icpd/conference/bkg/wppa.html.

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