weather research & forecasting (wrf-chem) model
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Weather Research &
Forecasting (WRF-Chem) Model
Lokhaze AliPhD Student NUST
The New Norms (Most Likely)
• US $222 billion during 2010 alone
• $16 billion associated with Pakistan floods 2010, 2011 & 2012 (Chairman NDMA)
• $80 billion with 2008 Katrina Hurricane, USA
• $200-240 billion with 2011 Japan Earthquake
Met Office UKBBC 24 September, 2014
• Four-day forecast as accurate as one-day forecast 30 years ago
• Data crunching• Petaflop• One thousand million million
calculations a second 1015
• Two-and-a-half hours to process data
• 20 different scenarios for a forecast (most likely)
World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)
Data Collection & Climate Projections
Mean Air Temp Change CMIP5 RCP4.52011-2100
Summer Mean Temp JJAS (1979-2005)
Climate of Pakistan (1981-2010)
+2.50C
+1.50C
+1.90C
Ref: Dr. G Rasul (PMD), 2014
Pakistan 2050
Change in Monsoon Patterns
Recent Disasters in Pakistan (NDMA)
CyclonesYemyin-2007
Phat-2010
Malakand Displacements2009 / 10
EarthquakesZiarat-2008Dalbandeen-2010Maskhel,Awaran 2013
Landslides / GLOFAttabad-2010, Gyari 2012
Floods: 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
DroughtTharparker (2014)
Floods 2014
Floods 2014
Floods 2014
15
Weather Systems Tracks2010, 2011 & 2014
Ref: Dr Hanif (PMD), 2014
WRF Models
WRF Model Precipitation
North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) & Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)
STUDIES OF EMISSIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION, CLOUDS AND CLIMATE
COUPLING BY REGIONAL SURVEYS (SEAC4RS)• Influence of Asian
emissions on clouds, climate, and air quality
• Asian monsoon circulation
FRAPPE - FRONT RANGE AIR POLLUTION AND PHOTOCHEMISTRY EXPERIMENT
• C-130 Aircraft• DISCOVER-AQ Mission
The Himalayas
Himalayas Contributions to Basins
Increase in Runoff Higher Glacier Melt & Precipitation
• Avg annual runoff generation (TR) ref period (1998–2007, REF
• Mean projected annual total runoff (PTR) for the future (2041–2050 RCP4.5)
• PTR is split into four contributors
• BF: baseflow • GM: glacier melt• SM: snow melt• RR: rainfall
runoff).
Total Flows
SOCIOECONOMICPROCESSES
SocioeconomicPathways
Adaptation and Mitigation
Actions
Governance
CLIMATE
NaturalVariability
AnthropogenicClimate Change
RISKHazards
Exposure
Vulnerability
IMPACTS
EMISSIONSand Land-use Change
r
Risk Level withCurrent Adaptation
Potential forAdditional Adaptation to Reduce Risk
Risk Level withHigh Adaptation
Risk-LevelVeryLow Med
VeryHigh
4°C2°C
Present
Long Term(2080-2100
Near Term (2030-2040
Risks for Low-LyingCoastal Areas
Loss of Livelihoods,Settlements, Infrastructure, Ecosystem Services, and Economic Stability
SMALL ISLANDS
Compounded Stresson Water Resources
Reduced Crop Productivityand Livelihood and Food Security
Vector- and Water-Borne Diseases
AFRICA
ASIAIncreased Flood Damage to Infrastructure , Livelihoods, and Settlements
Heat-Related Human Mortality
Increased Drought-Related Water and Food Shortage
Increased Losses andImpacts from ExtremeHeat Events
Increased Flood Losses and Impacts EUROPE
Increased Water Restrictions
Increased Flood Damageto Infrastructure andSettlements
Increased Risks
to Coastal Infrastructure and Low-Lying Ecosystems
AUSTRALASIASignificant Change in Composition and Structure of Coral Reef Systems
Increased Risksfrom Wildfires
Heat-RelatedHuman Mortality
Damages from River and Coastal Urban Floods
NORTH AMERICA
Reduced WaterAvailability andIncreased Flooding and Landslides
Reduced FoodProduction and Quality
CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA
Vector-Borne Diseases
Reduced Fisheries Catch Potential at Low Latitudes
Increased Mass CoralBleaching and Mortality
Coastal Inundationand Habitat Loss
THE OCEAN
Unprecedented Challenges,Especially from Rate of Change
Risks for Ecosystems
POLAR REGIONS Risks for Health and Well-Being
DownscalingGCM to RCM
Invest Today for The Next Generation (Our Tomorrow)
• Early Warning Systems (EWS)
• Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR)
• Disaster Management• Remote Sensing
Technology 2100(It was Our power that made) the violent (unruly) wind flow (tamely) for Solomon, to his order, to the land which We had blessed: for We do know all things… (Al-Quran)