Weather, Climate & SocietyATMO 336

Impact of Extreme Weather

Weather Hazards

• Hurricanes (Katrina, Andrew)• Floods (Agnes, 1993 Midwest, 1997 ND)• Tornadoes (Palm Sunday)• Hail (Midwest Risk in spring)• Lightning• Wind Storms• Heat Wave (2003 & 2007 Europe)• Drought (SE ongoing, West almost always)• Fire Weather (West in general)

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/other/anncat.html

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US Weather Damage 1955-1999

$8$10$11$17$28$30$30$36$37$51$57$58$58$60$67$74$91$94$95$97

$125$137$138$146$148$150$153$170$172$185$192$203$204$224

$269$289

$336$366$368

$427$464

$525$702$715

$909$967

$1,669

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600 $1,800

New Hampshire Maine

New Mexico Vermont Nevada

Montana Rhode Island

Idaho Alaska

Arizona Washington

Michigan Maryland/D.C.

Tennessee Utah

Georgia Wisconsin Nebraska

West Virginia South Dakota

Massachusetts Kansas

Arkansas Kentucky

Ohio New Jersey

Virginia Indiana

North Dakota Alabama

Oklahoma Colorado

Oregon Minnesota

Illinois South Carolina

Missouri Iowa

Connecticut New York

Mississippi California

Pennsylvania North Carolina

Texas Louisiana

Florida

TOTAL = $11,370

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/composite.html

US Tornado Damage 1955-1999Av/Yr in Millions 1999 USD

$0.09$0.10$0.24$0.26$0.27$0.34$0.53$0.66$1.49$1.78$2.14$2.26$2.27$2.33$2.37$2.94$3.47$3.57$3.68$4.42$4.62$5.52

$7.42$10.64

$14.69$14.90$15.73

$17.11$17.19

$23.47$24.84

$27.75$29.88$30.26$31.33

$37.32$40.96

$43.62$44.36

$49.28$49.51

$51.68$51.88

$53.13$62.94

$68.93$81.94

$84.84$88.60

$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100

Rhode Island Nevada

Vermont Idaho

Delaware Hawaii Maine

NewNew Mexico

Wyoming West Virginia

Connecticut Montana Maryland

Washington New Jersey

Arizona Utah

California Massachusetts

Colorado Oregon Virginia

South Dakota North Dakota

North Carolina New York

Pennsylvania South Carolina

Tennessee Kentucky Louisiana Michigan Nebraska

Wisconsin Florida

Arkansas Mississippi

Ohio Kansas

Iowa Georgia

Alabama Indiana Illinois

Missouri Oklahoma Minnesota

Texas

TOTAL = $1,103

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/tornadoes.html

US Flood Damage 1955-1999Av/Yr in Millions 1999 USD

$7.41$7.59$8.89$9.11$16.97$18.38$25.07$27.30$27.59$28.31$35.50$35.56$37.18$37.46$43.17$46.91$53.22$53.99$60.87$63.10$64.50$65.06

$85.73$86.28$91.65$96.08$102.40$106.80$107.50$110.00$113.40$118.80

$133.90$144.90$146.10$146.90

$156.80$197.80$198.90

$218.20$218.70$219.40

$272.20$276.90

$312.90$320.50

$521.80$682.30

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

South Carolina New Hampshire

Maine New Mexico

Vermont Rhode Island

Puerto Rico/USVI Montana Georgia Nevada

Idaho Michigan

Alaska Tennessee

Alabama Arizona

Maryland/D.C. Washington

Wisconsin Utah

Nebraska Florida

South Dakota Kansas

West Virginia Arkansas

Ohio Massachusetts

Oklahoma North Carolina

Indiana Kentucky

Virginia Minnesota Mississippi

New Jersey North Dakota

Oregon Colorado

New York Illinois

Connecticut Missouri

Texas Iowa

Louisiana California

Pennsylvania

TOTAL = $5,942

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/floods.html

US Hurricane Damage 1900-1999Av/Yr in Millions 1999 USD

$10.43

$44.88

$44.88

$89.76

$112.20

$1,238

$2,995

$7,082

$10,330

$12,400

$16,430

$16,500

$17,400

$18,460

$33,850

$34,200

$100,500

$238,900

$10 $100 $1,000 $10,000 $100,000 $1,000,000

Maine

Ohio

West Virginia

Pennsylvania

Maryland

Georgia

Virginia

Massachusetts

Rhode Island

Alabama

Connecticut

Mississippi

South Carolina

New York

Louisiana

North Carolina

Texas

Florida

TOTAL = $510,600

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/hurricane.html

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/lightning.html

Nailed

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/lightning.html

Deaths

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/lightning.html

Why is the number of deaths decreasing?

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/lightning.html

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/other/crophailnatloss.html

http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/sourcebook/other/hailinsproploss.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Edccc.jpg

2003 European Heat Wave

22-35 K Deaths

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_heat_wave_of_2003

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_heat_island

0.41111.1

511

252627

35374040

50607074809095100

130180

230350400450520550

800900980

15002000210023002800

3500

0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Living near nuclear plantHurricanes, tornadoes*

Airline crashes*Dam failures*

Peanut butter (1 Tbsp./day)Birth control pills

Firearms*Radiation worker, age 18-

Coffee: 2 cups/dayFire, burns*

Radon in homes*Poison + suffocation +

Drowning*Speed limit: 65 vs. 55

Married to smokerSmall cars (vs. midsize)

AIDS*Occupational accidents

Air pollution*Homicide*

Suicide*Drug abuse*

Pneumonia, influenza*Motor vehicle accidents

Alcohol*Living in Southeast

All accidents*15-lb overweight

Stroke*Sub-optimal medical care*

Grade school dropout30-lb overweight

Cancer*Socioeconomic status low

Being unmarriedHeart disease*

Cigarettes (male)Being male (vs. female)

Living in poverty

http://www.phyast.pitt.edu/%7Eblc/book/chapter8.html

Loss of Life Expectancy (Days)

Weather, Climate & SocietyATMO 336

Ozone Depletion

Review: Ultraviolet (UV)

Absorption O2 and O3 absorb UV

(shorter than 0.3 m)

Reductions in O3 levels would increase the amount of UV radiation that penetrates to the surface

IR

Ahrens, p 36

UV Visible

Hazards of Increased UV

• Damage to crops and animals

Reduction in ocean phytoplankton

• Increase number of cases of skin cancers

Increase in eye cataracts and sun burning

Suppression of human immune system

(But at least you have a healthy tan!)

Natural Balance of Ozone

Danielson et al, Fig 2.28

Disassociation of O2 absorbs UV < 0.2 mO2 + UV O + O

O3 forms when O2 and O molecules collideO2 + O O3

Disassociation of O3 absorbs 0.2-0.3 m UVO3 + UV O2 + O

Balance exists between O3 creation-destruction

CFC’s disrupts balance

Sources of Chlorofluorocarbons• CFC’s make up many

important products

Refrigerants

Insulation Materials

Aerosol Propellants

Cleaning Solvents

Commonly Used CFC’s

Name Formula Primary Use Residence Time (50% decrease)

CFC-11 CCl3F Propellant ~55 years

CFC-12 CCl2F2 Refrigerant ~100 years

CFC-113 C2Cl3F3 Cleaning Solvent ~65 years

It would take ~10 years for CFC levels to start falling if all production ceased today owing to leakage of CFC’s

from old appliances, etc.

Chronology of Ozone Depletion

1881 Discovery of ozone layer in stratosphere

1928 Synthesis of CFC’s for use as a refrigerant

1950s Rapid increase in use of CFC’s

1974 Description of ozone loss chemical reactions

1979 Ban of CFC use in most aerosol cans in U.S.

1980s Growth of CFC use worldwide

1985 Discovery of Antarctic ozone hole

1987 Adoption of Montreal Protocol calling for a 50% reduction in use of CFC’s by 1998

Chronology of Ozone Depletion

1989 Confirmation of ozone declines in mid-latitudes of Northern Hemisphere and in the Arctic

1990 Montreal Protocol amended to require a complete phase out of all ozone depleting chemicals by 2000

1990 U.S. requirement for recycling of CFC’s

1992 Discovery of high levels of ClO over middle and high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere

1992 Further amendment of Montreal Protocol calling for an accelerated phase out by ozone depleting chemicals

2100 Time needed for ozone layer to heal completely?

How O3 is Measured: Dobson Unit

• Ozone can be measured by the depth of ozone if all ozone in a column of atmosphere is brought to sea-level temperature and pressure.

• One Dobson unit corresponds to a 0.01 mm depth at sea-level temperature and pressure

• The ozone layer is very thin in Dobson units.

There are only a few millimeters (few hundred Dobsons) of total ozone in a column of air.

Mean Monthly Total Ozone

Huge decrease in O3 over Antarctica during the period 1979-92.

40 Year Springtime Ozone over SP

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz/ozdob.html

Setting the StageConditions over Antarctica

promote ozone loss.

Circumpolar vortex keeps air over Antarctica from mixing with warmer air from middle latitudes.

Temperatures drop to below -85oC in stratosphere.

Chemical reactions unique to extreme cold occur in air isolated inside vortex.

Williams, The Weather Book

How Ozone is Destroyed

June: Winter begins.

Polar vortex strengthens and temperatures begin to fall.

July-August: The temperatures fall to below -85oC.

Ice clouds form from water vapor and nitric acid.

Chemical reactions that can occur on ice crystals, but not in air, free chlorine atoms from the CFC.

Williams, The Weather Book

How Ozone is Destroyed

Sept: As sunlight returns in early Spring, stratospheric temperatures begin to rise. Clouds then evaporate, releasing chlorine atoms into air that were ice locked. Free chlorine atoms begin destroying ozone.

Oct: Lowest levels of ozone are detected in early spring.

Nov: Vortex weakens and breaks down, allowing ozone poor air to spread.

Danielson et al, Fig 2.29

Chemistry of the Ozone Hole

Chlorine atoms can be freed from CFC’s by UV reaction

CCl3F + UV CCl2F + Cl

CCl2F2 + UV CClF2 + Cl

C2Cl3F3 + UV C2Cl2F3 + ClOnce a chlorine atom is freed,

it can destroy thousands of ozone molecules before being removed from the air

Cl + O3 O2 + ClO

ClO + O O2 + Cl

Chlorine acts as a catalyst Moran and Morgan, Fig 2.19

CFC-11

Annual Cycle of Ozone over SP

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/dv/spo_oz/movies/anim2007.html

Mean Monthly Total Ozone

Small Ozone Loss over N.H. during the period 1979 to 1993.

UV Index

• Gives intensity of UV radiation at ground

• Accounts for – Ozone (columnar) – Clouds (31% penetration on cloudy days)– Elevation (6% more per km)– Time of day, day of year, latitude

UV Index EPA Forecast and Information

Key Points: Ozone

• Prevents UV radiation from hitting surface

Offers protection

• UV radiation harmful to life on planet– Skin Cancer; Premature Aging of Skin– Cataracts and Eye Damage– Immune System Suppression– Plant Damage

Key Points: Ozone Hole

• Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) disrupt the natural balance of O3 in S.H. stratosphere

CFCs responsible for the ozone hole over SP!

Responsible for lesser reductions worldwide.

• Special conditions exist in stratosphere over Antarctica that promote ozone destruction:

Air trapped inside circumpolar vortex

Cold temperatures fall to below -85oC

Key Points: Ozone Hole

• CFCs stay in atmosphere for ~100 years

One freed chlorine atom destroys thousands of O3 molecules before leaving stratosphere

• Montreal Protocol mandated total phase out of ozone depleting substances by 2000.

• Even with a complete phase out, O3 levels

Would not increase for another ~10 years

Would not completely recover for ~100 years