weather and ice information as a tool for arctic marine ... and ice information as a tool for arctic...
TRANSCRIPT
Weather and ice information as a tool for
arctic marine and offshore services
World Meteorological Organization Executive Council
Panel of Experts on Polar Observations, Research and Services
President & CEO Tero Vauraste
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AGENDA
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• Company overview • Our customers and their needs – what do we do? • Weather services as a planning tool • Long, mid and short term planning
• Baltic – current services • Arctic – new service needs
• Alaskan operation 2012-2014 • Overview and requirements
• Summary and conclusions
We are a leading producer of Baltic icebreaking, arctic ice management and
offshore services.
Arctia Shipping Ltd is a shipping company, which provides icebreaking, ice management, arctic offshore, oil recovery and archipelago commuter services.
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Customers and Arctia
Baltic icebreaking • The end users are the Finnish industry
and shipping companies – The operation is based on the
agreements between Arctia and the Finnish Transport Agency
• 5+2 icebreakers • 1000-3500 assignments / year • 250-1000 operating days / year • 150 persons • Turnover +/-30 m€
Global – arctic offshore
• Customers are international energy and construction companies
• 3 multipurpose vessels • 150 persons • 400-800 operating days / year • Turnover 20-40m€
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Customers and Arctia
Oil Spill Response • Client: European Maritime Safety Agency
EMSA • Customer potential:
• The Finnish environmental authorities
• International oil companies • Conversions of the current fleet and
newbuildings • Turnover 0,6-0,8m€ / y
Archipelago traffic • Customer is Centre for Economic
Development, Transport and the Environment • End users are archipelago inhabitants and
tourists • No fees for the users • 11 vessels • 120 000 vehicles / y • 230 000 passengers / y • 50 persons • Turnover 7m€ / y
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Icebreakers and multipurpose icebreakers The icebreaker and multipurpose vessel fleet
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• The majority of customers are
either oil and gas or offshore companies
– Participation in ice tests in Spitsbergen area
– Operations in western Greenland area
– Operations in eastern Greenland area
– Operations in Alaska
• EXAMPLES OF ASSIGNMENTS
• icebreaking • Ice management • offshore construction • hoistings • operation as mother ship - diving • anchor handling • pipe laying • cable work
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Customers and their needs
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The need for weather services
…is to avoid this from taking place
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Long term, mid term and short term planning
Long term planning • Climate developments during the forthcoming decades
• Ice conditions development globally and locally • Fleet investment is a long term decision for the next 3-4 decades • We need to foresee the developments in order to invest into a correct
fleet type • Example: FMI-Arctia climate change study
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Longterm planning Baltic Ice coverage predictions
• The Finnish Meterological institute has made a reserach in autumn 2010 for Arctia concerning the proposed development of the Baltic Sea ice coverage
• The purpose of the study is to evaluate the future needs of next
icebreaker generation in light of the proposed ice conditions
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Research model
• The study was based on the temperature sum model • Historical data was based on years 1971-2000 and 1951-2000 • The future scenarios were based on different scenarios of global
emission reduction • The future modelling looked into years 2010 – 2050
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Jääpeitteen laajuuden jakauma 1951-2000
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2000
0
4000
0
6000
0
8000
0
1000
00
1200
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1400
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1600
00
1800
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2000
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2200
00
2400
00
2600
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2800
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3000
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3200
00
3400
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3600
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3800
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4000
00
Jääpeitteen laajuus (km2)
Osu
us (%
)The maximum ice coverage 1951-2000
Very mild Mild Average Severe Very
severe
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The changes in the ice thickness
The average maximum ice thickness based on temperature sum model within the coastal region in 1971-2000
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Conclusions - Ice coverage:
- The severe winters will be less during the next decades
- After 2040 there are no more severe winters
-The amount of mild and very mild winters will increase
-Ice thickness:
- After 2020 the average ice thickness will be 15-20 cm lower than during 1971-2000
- After 2040 the average ice thickness will be 25-35 cm lower than during 1971-2000.
- The Southern Baltic will no longer have an ice coverage
Long term, mid term and short term planning
Mid term planning • The most difficult part with a high significance
• Fleet and resource planning for an operational period of 1-6 months
within the operation area • Challenging to forecast, but of high importance • No pratctical solutions found yet • High significance in resource allocation
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Long term, mid term and short term planning Short term planning • Predictions of the operational conditions for the next 0-7 days
• Weather, ice, drifts, (current)
• Resource allocation and traffic restrictions
• Preparation of the fleet and the crews
• Good models in use for the Baltic Sea
• Lack of infrastructure for forecasting in the arctic area
• How to bring the good models to the arctic and antarctic
• Weather conditions
• Wetaher and ice conditions and their predicted developments • Drift of icebergs
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A practical approach Case study
SHELL ALASKA MARINE SUPPORT PLAN – 2012 The operation, ice conditions and required
weather services
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OVERVIEW 2012
History • In 1980’s Shell Exploration drilled :
- 25 Wells Beaufort - 4 Wells in Chukchi
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Noble Discoverer, source, www.shipsotting.com
Kulluk, source, www.icetech12.org
2012 Plan
• Drilling Season 1st July to 31st October • Wells: 3 Chukchi 2 Beaufort
LOCATIONS & DISTANCES
Dutch to Beaufort = 6.5 days/9kts Dutch to Chukchi = 5 days/9kts
BARROW DEADHORSE
POINT HOPE
PORT CLARENCE
NOME
ANCHORAGE
DUTCH HARBOR
BEAUFORT SEA
CHUKCHI SEA
ARCTIC OCEAN
WAINWRIGHT
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Primary Ice Management “Nordica” / “Fennica”
• Length – 116m / 380ft • Ice Class – DNV POLAR 10 • 20,400hp • BP 234T
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Source: Cryosphere today
Changes in conditions in the Alaskan area
No fast ice during the summer
Drifting ice fields and icebergs
Satellite image
forecasting?
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Beaufort Sea • Beaufort Sea Gyro
brings multi year ice during summer season towards the northern coastline
• Large floes of sea ice
and icebergs during summer – Sea ice and iceberg
drift forecasting 0-7 days • First
year/multiyear
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Summary and conclusions
• Three dimensions of forecasting needed for resource and operational planning and safety – Long term – decades – Mid term – seasonal – Short term – 0-14 days
• Baltic models to be multiplied to the arctic areas – Ice charts – Satellite images – Icing
• Weather and ice field+iceberg movement forecasting – First year / multiyear – Ice packing predictions
• Drift calculations in SAR and spill situations
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