wayne calder - bureau of resources and energy economics - resources and energy – the outlook for...
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Wayne Calder delivered the presentation at the 2014 Heavy Haul Rail Conference. The 2014 Heavy Haul Rail Conference had a focus on driving efficiency with smarter technology. Australasia’s only heavy haul rail event is the annual meeting place for professionals interested in the latest projects, technologies and innovation in this dynamic sector. For more information about the event, please visit: http://bit.ly/hhroz14TRANSCRIPT
bree.gov.au
Resources and energy—the outlook for
Australia
Wayne Calder
Deputy Executive Director
Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE)
bree.gov.au
Key messages
Still opportunities for resources and energy exports to
emerging economies
Investment in capital formation and growing energy
consumption growth will support demand for bulk
commodities
Transition to the production phase accelerating
Iron ore and coal are key exports for Australia, and will
continue to provide significant earnings over the medium
term
bree.gov.au
Regional economic growth
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
China Japan South Korea India OECD
%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sources: IMF; BREE
bree.gov.au
China’s GDP
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013
%yr Billion Yuan
Marginal GDP Growth (LHS) GDP Growth Rate % (RHS)
Source: IMF
China Boom China Bust???
GFC &
Rebound
bree.gov.au
Steel production growth to be steady
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Mt
China EU 28 Japan US India
Source: BREE
bree.gov.au
China’s monthly steel production
20
40
60
80
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14
Mt
bree.gov.au
Australia’s iron ore exports
Sources: ABS; BREE
20
40
60
80
100
200
400
600
800
1998–99 2002–03 2006–07 2010–11 2014–15
volume value (right axis)
Mt
2013–14
A$b
bree.gov.au
Australia’s metallurgical coal exports
Sources: ABS; BREE
10
20
30
40
50
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2004–05 2007–08 2010–11 2013–14
volume value (right axis)
Mt
2013–14
A$b
bree.gov.au
Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (%) IEA New Policies Scenario
-200
200
400
600
800
1000
%
non-OECD
OECD
bree.gov.au
Contributions to energy demand 2011–35 (Mtoe) IEA New Policies Scenario
-500
500
1000
1500
Mtoe
non-OECD
OECD
bree.gov.au
Power generation in non-OECD Asia IEA New Policies Scenario
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
1990 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Oil Other renewables
Source: IEA
bree.gov.au
China’s electricity generation
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan
-96
Jan
-98
Jan
-00
Jan
-02
Jan
-04
Jan
-06
Jan
-08
Jan
-10
Jan
-12
Jan
-14
Billion kWh
Thermal Hydro Nuclear Wind Other
Electricity generation has
been increasing rapidly and
will continue to grow
Thermal (coal and gas)
sources account for the bulk
of generation
Inertia in the energy system
will prevent any rapid change
in generation mix
bree.gov.au
Power generation in India IEA New Policies Scenario
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1990 2011 2020 2025 2030 2035
TWh
Coal Gas Nuclear Hydro Bioenergy Oil Other renewables
Source: IEA
bree.gov.au
Australia’s thermal coal exports
Sources: ABS; BREE
5
10
15
20
25
50
100
150
200
250
2004–05 2007–08 2010–11 2013–14
volume value (right axis)
Mt 2013–14
A$b
bree.gov.au
The production phase to increase export
earnings
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
2008–09 2010–11 2012–13 2014–15 2016–17 2018–19
2013-14 A$b
energy resources
bree.gov.au
Contact
Wayne Calder
Deputy Executive Director
Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics
02 6243 7718