Waves of Democracy

Ideas of Samuel P. Huntington

The First “Long” Wave

1820s widened the suffrage in U.S. to include working class white males.

This expansion of the electorate continued through 1920 when women were extended the right to vote in the U.S.

In 1926 there were 29 democracies

First Reverse Wave In 1922, following the coming to power

of Mussolini in Italy, a number of countries moved away from democratic rule.

Hitler came to power through the elections of 1932 and 1933 in the Weimar Republic

By 1932 there were only 12 democracies.

Post World War II

The second wave of democratization reached its zenith in 1962 with 36 democracies.

The second reverse wave occurred between 1960 and 1975 and reduced the number of democracies to 30.

The 1980s and the third wave: five factors Deepening legitimacy problems with

existing authoritarian regimes Global economic growth taking off in the

1960s Shift in doctrine of Catholic Church

through the Second Vatican Council of 1963-65 causing an ideological shift among church leaders

External Actors

Changes in policies of external actors such as the European Community, the United States, and the Soviet Union.

The collapse of the Soviet Union caused a dramatic change in global power manipulations and authoritarian regime support

Snowballing Demonstration, stimulation, and

contagion across “ripe” populaces The transformation of Eastern Europe

following the collapse of the Soviet Union

African democratic transitions Snowballing works as a trigger only if

the conditions favorable to democracy exist in a country

The third reverse wave: contributing factors Weakness of democratic values among

key elite groups and the general public Severe economic setbacks Social and political polarization caused

by leftist governments Exclusion of populist, leftist, and lower-

class groups from power by conservative groups

Additional factors

Breakdown of law and order from terrorism or insurgency

Intervention of conquest by nondemocratic foreign power

Reverse snowballing

Obstacles to Democratization

Home-grown Marxist-Leninist regimes Continuation of personal dictatorships,

military regimes, one-party systems Radical Islam The absence of experience with

democracy

Leadership changes

Some form of leadership change within authoritarian systems typically precede democratization

Weakness in democratic values among aged leadership usually continues throughout the lives of the autocratic leadership