watershed/nutrients/physical forcing adaptive integrated framework (aif): a new methodology for...

Watershed/nutrients/physical forcing

Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystemsmanaging impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems

TEAM: Dimitry Beletsky, Dimitry Beletsky, Tom Croley, Tom Croley,

Carlo De Marchi, Carlo De Marchi, Joe Depinto, Joe Depinto, Juli Dyble, Juli Dyble,

Gary Fahnenstiel Gary Fahnenstiel Tom Johengen, Tom Johengen,

Donna Kashian andDonna Kashian andCraig StowCraig Stow


• Experimental • Monitoring • Synthesis

Water quality

Human health

Coupled biophysical 3D models

Empirically based

(Bayesian)

Artificial neural network

Ecosystem Stressors

Eco

syst

em

Mo

del

s

Fish

community

dynamics

&

Eco

syst

em

end

po

ints

• Land & Resource use

• Climate Change

• Invasive Species

Recommendations for ecosystem characterization

• Economic models• Public preference • Workshops

Socio-economic integration to guide

management

(e.g. regression)

Simple statistical

Ecosystem Characterization • Watershed model• Hydrodynamic model• Biophysical data & processes

OutlineWatershed/nutrients/physical forcing

- Historical sampling sites and dates

Ecosystem Characterization Ecosystem Characterization • Biophysical data and processes

- Water quality parameters

• Watershed model

• Hydrodynamic model

- Watershed databases

Watershed Nutrient Loading- In Progress

1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Study Sites1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Study Sites

13 sites (8 inner, 5 outer)

sampled by EPA & others(Smith et al. 1977)(Bierman et al. 1984)

1991-1996

1974 - 1980

26 sites (18 inner, 8 outer)

1991-1992

GLERL Saginaw Bay Monitoring Study 1991 - 1996: Sampling Dates

Year-Cruise Dates Year-Cruise Dates91-1 April 11-18 94-1 April 2091-2 May 1-3 94-2 June 6-1091-3 May 20-21 94-3 July 11-1391-4 June 15-18 94-4 Aug 8-1091-5 July 22-26 94-5 Sept 8-991-6 Aug 19-23 94-6 Oct 17-1991-7 Sept 9-1291-8 Oct 7-2291-9 Nov 8-12

92-1 April 14-15 95-1 May 2-392-2 May 4-6 95-2 May 17-1892-3 May 27 - Jun 3 95-3 June 12-1392-4 June 15-23 95-4 July 17 & 1992-5 July 20-23 95-5 Aug 21-2292-6 Aug 10-12 95-6 Sept 1292-7 Sept 9-15 95-7 Oct 25 & 3092-8 Oct 4-7

93-1 April 29-30 96-1 May 4 & 793-2 May 17 96-2 May 28 & 3093-3 June 21 96-3 June 11-1293-4 July 12 96-4 June 2793-5 Aug 10 96-5 July 15 & 1793-6 Sept 8 96-6 August 2193-7 Oct 5 &14 96-7 September 20

- Between 6 – 9 cruises/yr

- Roughly monthly Apr – Oct

- 2-3 days to sample

Three pilot surveys in 1990(may give best baseline data)

GLERL Saginaw Bay Monitoring Study 1991 - 1996: Sampling Dates

Year-Cruise Dates Year-Cruise Dates91-1 April 11-18 94-1 April 2091-2 May 1-3 94-2 June 6-1091-3 May 20-21 94-3 July 11-1391-4 June 15-18 94-4 Aug 8-1091-5 July 22-26 94-5 Sept 8-991-6 Aug 19-23 94-6 Oct 17-1991-7 Sept 9-1291-8 Oct 7-2291-9 Nov 8-12

92-1 April 14-15 95-1 May 2-392-2 May 4-6 95-2 May 17-1892-3 May 27 - Jun 3 95-3 June 12-1392-4 June 15-23 95-4 July 17 & 1992-5 July 20-23 95-5 Aug 21-2292-6 Aug 10-12 95-6 Sept 1292-7 Sept 9-15 95-7 Oct 25 & 3092-8 Oct 4-7

93-1 April 29-30 96-1 May 4 & 793-2 May 17 96-2 May 28 & 3093-3 June 21 96-3 June 11-1293-4 July 12 96-4 June 2793-5 Aug 10 96-5 July 15 & 1793-6 Sept 8 96-6 August 2193-7 Oct 5 &14 96-7 September 20

LOGISTICS

1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Sampling Dates1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Sampling Dates

1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Parameters Monitored1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Parameters Monitored

• Physical/Chemical: CTD profile (w/ Fluorometer and Transmissometer), pH, Alkalinity, Kpar, Secchi, TSS

• Biological: zooplankton, benthos, phytoplankton, chlorophyll, primary production, benthic algae and benthic primary production.

• Nutrients: TP, TDP, SRP, NO3, NH4, SiO2, PSiO2, Cl, DOC, POC

All water qualitly monitoring data available through two NOAA-GLERL Technical Memos:

•TM-91, Nalepa et al. 1996 includes data for 1991-1993

•TM-115, Johengen et al. 2000 includes data for 1994 – 1996

1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Data Availability1991-1996 Saginaw Bay: Data Availability

Journal of Great Lakes Research: special volume v21 (1995) Bierman et al. (1984) summarizes data from 1974-1980. Data has been extracted from STORET and in our databases



Ecosystem Characterization Ecosystem Characterization

• Watershed model


• Biophysical data and processes




• Soil (STATSGO)• DEM• 1992 and 2001 Land use • Hydrography • RUSLE 2 Input parameters • DLBRM Hydrologic input parameters • Nutrient (N & P) loading potential

at county & zip code levels• Atrazine loading potential at county

level • Locations of CSOs and SSOs • Water Quality Databases from USGS

and EPA . • Point Sources (Factories & MWWTP)

Available Databases for the Saginaw Bay Watersheds

AnnualManure

1987, 1992, 1997, 2002N, P205, K20

Fertilizer1987, 1992, 1997, 2002N, P205, K20

Atrazine80% of all pesticide used in Michigan2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004

MonthlyRUSLE2 parameterstopographical factor (slope * slope length)cover factorsupport practice factorsoil erodibility factor 2002

Nitrogen (Manure) Loading

Saginaw Bay Watersheds SurveysSaginaw Bay Watersheds Surveys




• Watershed model






The Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM)

• The watershed is subdivided into a grid of square pixels (1 km x 1 km).

• Water and pollutants move horizontally according to the difference in elevation between neighboring pixels

Elevation Flow network

DLBRM Pixel Water BalanceDLBRM Pixel Water Balance

• Physically based

• Cascade of storage “tanks” (linear reservoirs)

• Degree-day snowmelt

• Three soil layers (U, L, G) plus surface

water (S) and snow pack

• Variable area infiltration

• Potential and actual evapotranspiration

• Lateral transport from upstream pixels

• Model parameters depend on soil characteristics (permeability, etc.)

and land use

s

U

L

G

S

buepU

blepL

aiL

agG

asS

apU

adL

h

bgepG

bsepS

u

l

auU

alL

(s+u)UC

awG

g

InsolationPrecipitationTemperature

Snow Rain

Melt, m

Supply, s

Snow Pack, P

Upper Soil ZoneMoisture, U

Lower Soil ZoneMoisture, L

Groundwater ZoneMoisture, G

Surface Storage,S

Runoff

SurfaceRunoffs UC( )

Evapotranspirationb e Uu p( )

Capacity, C

Evapotranspirationb e Ll p( )

Evapotranspiration

Evaporation

Interflow( )a Li

GroundWater( )a Gg

Basin Outflow( )a Ss

Percolation( )a Up

DeepPercolation

( )a Ldb e Gg p(

Daily Model Calibrations

Spatial Characterization of Saginaw Bay Spatial Characterization of Saginaw Bay WatershedsWatersheds

(Augres-Rifle, Kawkawlin-Pine, Saginaw, Pigeon-Wiscoggin)

Calibrated Saginaw Bay Watershed Calibrated Saginaw Bay Watershed DLBRMDLBRM

Saginaw River (2003-2006)Saginaw River (2003-2006)

Bias Correlation Nash-Sutcl. RMSE/ Avg. Calib. 50-64 1.048 0.79 0.60 0.79 Calib. 99-02 1.051 0.76 0.19 0.74 Calib. 99-06 1.03 0.82 0.38 0.66

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

01/01/06 02/20/06 04/11/06 05/31/06 07/20/06 09/08/06 10/28/06 12/17/06

Bas

in n

et s

uppl

y (c

m/d

)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Bas

in o

uflo

w (

cm/d

)

Net Supply Observed 1950-64 1999-02 1999-06

-18

-15

-12

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

01/01/06 02/20/06 04/11/06 05/31/06 07/20/06 09/08/06 10/28/06 12/17/06

Bas

in n

et s

uppl

y (c

m/d

)

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Bas

in o

uflo

w (

cm/d

)

Net Supply Observed 1950-64 1999-02 1999-06

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Observed Load (g/s)

Estim

ate

d L

oad (

g/s

)

R=0.84

Total Phosphorous Loads for Saginaw River (1989-2005)Total Phosphorous Loads for Saginaw River (1989-2005)

Have: CSO/SSO Fraction of TP Annual Load to Saginaw Bay

• MDEQ• Model predictions

Calibration of the DLBRM Water Quality Simulations

Available databases• EPA STORET (www.epa.gov/STORET):

The Legacy Data Center contains information prior to 1999 and • The Modernized STORET contains information since 1999. • Permit Compliance System (PCS)- EPA, CSO and SSO – Michigan• EPA NPDES Management System (NMS)- Michigan Department of

Environmental Quality• USGS Water Quality Data (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis)

Problems: • Sporadic sampling, • Poor temporal and spatial coverage, • Uncertain data quality, • Scarcity of water quality parameters

(Suspended sediment concentrations; BOD; E-coli; Total Kjeldahl Nitrogen; Total & Dissolved P, Atrazine)

• Uneasy to manipulate data (ASCII and HTML format)

http://www.epa.gov/STORET

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis




• Watershed model






Hydrodynamic models

• 3D circulation model (POM) Lake-wide 2 km grid, 20-40 vertical levels Output: 3-D circulation, water

temperature, bottom shear stress

• 2D wave model (Schwab et al 1984)

Output: wave-induced bottom shear stress (to calculate resuspension potential)

• 3D particle transport model (Beletsky et al. 2006)

Output: particle trajectories, residence time

Input data: NWS land and NDBC buoy meteorological observations

Hydrodynamic model

Model years:

• 1 Historic year (from 1991-1993),

when current observations in Saginaw Bay are available

• 3 Field years (2008,2009, and 2010)

Hydrodynamic modelHydrodynamic model




• Watershed model






Watershed Nutrient LoadingIN PROGRESS

ObjectivesObjectives

- provide accurate annual loading of TP, SRP, TN, NO3, TSS for Saginaw River

- sample upstream of Saginaw and downstream Bay City to isolate these 2 major urban sources

- Help parameterize sediment and nutrient transport in DLBRM - event based runoff, high temporal intensity - focus on confluence of 4 main tributaries:

Cass, Flint, Tittabawasse and Shiawassee - 3-4 events in first couple of years

USGS and MDEQ Water Quality and Discharge Sampling Sites

DEQ samples 12 times a year: Low for model calibrationMultiple Stressor Plan: 30-40 times (incorporate DEQ sites)

DEQ Contacts1. Christine Aiello

- compiles water quality reports2. Jeff Cooper

- runs biological monitoring component- helping define ‘intensive’ nutrient source study, focusing on 3 other direct input streams:

USGS Contact 1. Rick Hubbell

- runs the water quality sampling program for DEQ

Helpful for selecting sampling locations to compliment existing monitoring programs and flow gauging sites.

Watershed Nutrient LoadingIN PROGRESS

Aquatic Ecosystem ModelsRelate Multiple System Responses to Multiple Stressors

Stressors System Responses

Hydrometeorology

Nutrient Loads

Sediment Loads

Habitat ChangesExotic Species Invasions

Toxics Loads

Fish HarvestFish Stocking

Algal biomass & class compositionWater clarity

Fish production, biomassand conditionRelative fish species abundance/harvest

Hypolimnetic DO conditions

Fish body burdens - BCCs

AEMAEM

Feedbacks/Homeostasis


Coupled biophysical 3D models

Empirically based

(Bayesian)

Artificial neural network

Eco

syst

em

Mo

del

s

(e.g. regression)

Simple statistical

• Experimental • Monitoring • Synthesis

Water quality

Human health

Fish

community

dynamics

&

Eco

syst

em

end

po

ints

Recommendations for ecosystem characterization

• Economic models

• Workshops

Socio-economic integration to guide

management

Ecosystem Characterization • Watershed model• Hydrodynamic model• Biophysical data & processes

• Public preference

Ecosystem Stressors

• Land & Resource use

• Climate Change

• Invasive Species

CSO/SSO Fraction of TP Annual Load to Saginaw Bay

CSO/SSO Est.

(Met. Ton)

WWTP

(Met. Ton.)

Total Load

MDEQ

(Met. Ton)

Total Load

Regr.

(Met. Ton)

CSO’s Fraction of

load

(%)

WWTP Fraction of

load

(%)

2000 1.78 -- -- 278 -- / 0.64 -- / --

2001 2.43 -- 642 412 0.38 / 0.59 -- / --

2002 3.02 -- 513 416 0.59 / 0.73 -- / --

2003 0.59 -- 345 174 0.17 / 0.34 -- / --

2004 2.98 142 724 660 0.41 / 0.45 19.6 / 21.5

2005 -- 146 -- -- -- / -- --/--

Water Quality Regression Models Based Water Quality Regression Models Based on Flow and Seasonon Flow and Season

Total Phosphorous Loads for Saginaw River (1989-2005)

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Observed Load (g/s)

Est

imat

ed L

oad

(g/s

)

R=0.84

CSO/SSO Fraction of TP Annual Load to Saginaw Bay

CSO/SSO Est.

(Met. Ton)

Total Load

MDEQ

(Met. Ton)

Total Load

Regr.

(Met. Ton)

Fraction of

MDEQ load

(%)

Fraction of

Regr. load

(%)

2000 1.78 -- 278 -- 0.64

2001 2.43 642 412 0.38 0.59

2002 3.02 513 416 0.59 0.73

2003 0.59 345 174 0.17 0.34

2004 2.98 724 660 0.41 0.45

CSO and SSO Events in Saginaw Bay CSO and SSO Events in Saginaw Bay (2000-2004)(2000-2004)

Michigan Department of Environmental Quality, 2000-2005

CSOs Events

Wet SSOs Events

Dry SSOs Events

CSOs Discharge

(MGal)

Wet SSOs

Discharge (MGal)

Dry SSOs

Discharge (MGal)

Saginaw 126 85 48 3,766 68.5 14.7

AuGres 0 0 2 0 0 0.018

Pigeon 0 6 7 0 0 0.305

Water Quality Characterization of CSOs Water Quality Characterization of CSOs and SSOsand SSOs

Fecal Coliform

(M/100 ml)

BOD5 (mg/l)

TSS (mg/l)

TP (mg/l)

TN (mg/l)

Untreated WW/ Dry SSOs

6.4M*

1 M -1 B

120*

88 - 451

206*

118 - 487

5.8

1.3 - 15.7

33

11.4 - 61

Wet

SSOs

500,000 42

6 - 413

91

10 -348

2.0 10*

CSOs 215,000

3 – 40M

43

3.9 – 696

127

1 – 4,420

0.7

0.1 - 20.8

3.6

0 – 82.1

Stormwater 5,081

1 – 5.23M

8.6

0.4 – 370

58

0.5 – 4,800

0.27

0.01 - 15.4

1.4

0.05 – 66.4

Treated WW

<200 30 30 1.65

0.07 - 6

3.95

0.5 - 32United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2004

Point-SourcesCSO’s and SSO’s

Point-SourcesCSO’s and SSO’s

91-96 Saginaw Bay Study

Field Data to Support Lower Food Web Model

• Loads and Forcing Functions– Inflows and lake boundary flows– Nutrient (P, N, Si), sediment and organic carbon loads– Solar radiation and wind

• In situ measurements– Initial conditions for all model state variables– Time and space observations of model state variables

through growing season• Plankton and benthic biomass and group

distribution• Nutrient (various forms and species) concentrations

• Process Experimentation of Value– P budget and internal cycling– Dreissenid particle filtering and nutrient cycling– Sediment nutrient flux rates– Development of empirical light extinction model on

basis of NVSS, Non-algal VSS, Algal VSS, DOM

DePINTO

watershed/nutrients/physical forcing adaptive integrated framework (aif): a new methodology for...

Documents

data available

ssos water quality databases

historical sampling

pocall water

sampling dates1991

study sites13 sites

new methodology

impacts of multiple