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Water market outlook August 2019Tim Westwood, Mihir Gupta and Neal HughesResearch by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences

Research report 19.9August 2019

Water market outlook: August 2019

© Commonwealth of Australia 2019

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Inquiries about the licence and any use of this document should be emailed to [email protected].

Cataloguing data

This publication (and any material sourced from it) should be attributed as: Westwood, T, Gupta, M, Hughes, N, 2019, Water market outlook: August 2019, ABARES research report 19.9, Canberra, August. CC BY 4.0. https://doi.org/10.25814/5d3fa5ac56a54

ISBN 978-1-74323-439-6 ISSN: 1447-8358

This publication is available at agriculture.gov.au/publications.

Department of Agriculture and Water ResourcesGPO Box 858 Canberra ACT 2601Telephone 1800 900 090Web agriculture.gov.au

The Australian Government acting through the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, represented by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, has exercised due care and skill in preparing and compiling the information and data in this publication. Notwithstanding, the Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, ABARES, its employees and advisers disclaim all liability, including liability for negligence and for any loss, damage, injury, expense or cost incurred by any person as a result of accessing, using or relying on any of the information or data in this publication to the maximum extent permitted by law.

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ContentsSummary............................................................................................................................................................ 4

Recent water market conditions............................................................................................................... 6

2019–20 water market scenarios............................................................................................................. 9

Appendix A: ABARES outlook scenarios...............................................................................................13

References...................................................................................................................................................... 18

TablesTable 1: ABARES water allocation price scenarios for 2019–20..................................................................10

Table A1 ABARES outlook scenarios matched against state outlook scenarios....................................13

Table A2 Rainfall forecast for 2019–20...................................................................................................................14

Table A3 Allocation forecasts for 2019–20, as at 15 July 2019.....................................................................15

Table A4 March allocation forecasts for 2019–20..............................................................................................15

Table A5: Volume carried over into 2019–20, comparison between July and March.........................16

Table A6 Projected carryover volume into 2020–21........................................................................................17

FiguresFigure 1 Water allocations in 2018–19 for major entitlements in the southern basin.........................6

Figure 2 Allocation prices and storage volumes in the southern Murray-Darling Basin.....................7

Figure 3 Opening water allocations in 2019-20 for major entitlements.....................................................7

Figure 4 Chance of above median rainfall – August to October.......................................................................8

Figure 5 Water allocation scenarios for 2019–20 (closing – 30 June 2020)..............................................9

Figure 6 Allocation price scenarios, in the Victorian Murray below Barmah – 2016 to 2020........10

Figure 7 Total available water allocation supply in the sMDB......................................................................11

Figure 8 Proportion of water carried over relative to annual rainfall.......................................................12


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SummaryThis report provides ABARES outlook for water allocation prices in the southern Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) for 2019-20. This outlook updates the previous March Outlook, using revised allocation announcements from state water agencies and seasonal conditions from the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM). A brief summary of market conditions prevailing in 2018–19 is also provided.

The ABARES Water Trade model (WTM) is used to simulate potential 2019–20 water allocation prices for four representative scenarios: extreme dry, dry, average and wet. Each scenario includes estimates of potential future allocation percentages, rainfall, and commodity prices drawing on state government outlooks, along with a number of additional assumptions made by ABARES (see Appendix A: ABARES outlook scenarios).

Water supply is low but still above Millennium drought levelsDrought conditions over the last 12 months have led to significant reductions in storage volumes and low opening allocations in 2019-20. Further, the current BOM climate outlook suggests drier than average conditions are likely at least until October. However, water availability is being supported by significant carryover reserves, with around 31% of 2018-19 supply (around 1,600 GL) being carried into 2019-20.

Across the southern basin, around 3,442 GL of water allocation is forecast to be available for irrigation use in the dry scenario by the end of 2019-20 (including carryover and excluding environmental water). This would be a 25% decline relative to 2018-19 but still higher than the worst of the Millennium drought (where supply averaged 2,590 GL between 2007-08 and 2008-09). The less likely extreme dry scenario would see water allocation supply fall to around 2,802 GL. Under the average and wet scenarios water availability is forecast to increase as high as 6,112 GL.

High water allocation prices are likely to continue Over the course of 2018-19 water allocation prices increased dramatically from around $250 per ML in July 2018 to over $500 per ML in June 2019 (for an annual average price of around $450). Currently water prices have been trading in excess of $600 per ML in most southern MDB regions.

In the dry scenario, an average annual water allocation price for 2019-20 of around $526 per ML is estimated, with $651 estimated under the extreme dry scenario (for the Murray below Barmah trading zones). Prices are expected to decrease substantially if a shift to average or wetter conditions occurs, with annual prices of $332 and $258 estimated under the average and wet scenarios, respectively.

Murrumbidgee import and Barmah choke limits may be in force Water supply remains highly limited in the Murrumbidgee with limited carryover reserves and zero opening general security allocations. Under the dry and average scenarios the Murrumbidgee Inter-valley Trade (IVT) import limit is expected to bind, leading to higher prices in this region compared to other regions in the southern basin. In the wet scenario, the Murrumbidgee reverts to its usual trade position of being a net exporter of water.


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The Barmah Choke trade constraint is expected to bind in the dry and extreme dry scenarios, leading to lower water allocation prices in the above Barmah trading zones: $491 and $545 per ML under the dry and extreme dry scenarios respectively.

There is potential for higher prices as we approach 2020–21If dry or extreme dry conditions do eventuate in 2019–20 storage and carryover reserves would diminish and water supply into 2020-21 could become extremely limited. In this situation higher water prices would be expected prior to the beginning of the 2020-21 water year, driven by demand for carryover water.


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Recent water market conditionsWater markets in 2018–19Drought conditions in New South Wales have contributed to low supply and high prices for water allocations in the southern MDB (sMDB) during 2018–19, particularly since January. While high security entitlements in Victoria received 100 per cent allocations in 2018–19, general security entitlements in NSW were significantly below average, at 0 per cent in the New South Wales Murray and 7 per cent in the Murrumbidgee (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Water allocations in 2018–19 for major entitlements in the southern basin

% 20 40 60 80 100

Allocation level

Historical average

SA Murray High

100

100

100

7

0

VIC Murray High

VIC Goulburn High

Murrumbidgee GS

NSW Murray GS

For the southern basin as a whole, 2018–19 has seen the lowest level of water available for irrigation since 2009–10 (taking into account allocations, carryover and water recovery volumes, see Figure 7). While total storage volumes were higher in 2018–19 than 2015–16, allocations were lower, because a higher proportion of water was stored in Victoria where water sharing rules are more conservative (a smaller proportion of stored water is allocated).

The disparity in water supply also created demand for water imports into New South Wales in 2018–19. The Murrumbidgee IVT account remained near its lower limit for most of the year, constraining imports and leading to periods of higher prices in the Murrumbidgee relative to the Murray.

Initial allocation forecasts for 2019–20 from state water agencies were also relatively low, further driving up prices towards the end of the water year. Water markets in the southern basin closed the 2018–19 water year at a price of around $548 per ML.

ABARES modelling results suggest that a combination of low supply and high irrigation water requirementsdue to low rainfall and high temperaturescan explain much of the observed increase in prices in 2018–19. Growth in water demand also appears to have occurred in recent years (likely in part due to maturing almond plantations) and this has also contributed to higher prices.


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Figure 2 Allocation prices and storage volumes in the southern Murray-Darling Basin

GL

2 000

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Murrayallocation prices(RHS)

Murrumbidgeeallocation prices(RHS)

sMDB storages(LHS)

Source: BOM, GMW, SAWater, WaterNSW. Current allocation price as indicated on RuralCo Water.Note: Water prices in 2019 dollar terms. Storages include; Dartmouth, Hume, Yarrawonga Weir, Lake Victoria, Menindee Lakes, Blowering, Burrinjuck, Lake Elidon, Lake Eppalock, Cairn Curran, Laanecoorie. Warranga Basin is excluded due to lack of data.

Water markets in 2019-20Opening water allocations for major entitlement types in 2019-20 are shown in Figure 3. As expected opening allocations are below average, with just 6% opening allocation for Victorian High Reliability (in the Murray) and 0% for New South Wales General Security (Figure 3). However, current water availability is much higher than these allocation levels, after taking into account carryover from 2018-19. In the first two weeks of July, water allocations were trading around $620 per ML in the Murray and the Murrumbidgee.

Figure 3 Opening water allocations in 2019-20 for major entitlements

% 20 40 60 80 100

Allocation level

Historical averageNSW Murrumbidgee GS

38

6

8

0

0

SA Murray High

VIC Murray High

VIC Goulburn High

NSW Murray GS

Source: SA DEW, NSW DPI, NVRM


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Seasonal climate outlookWinter rains towards the end of 2018–19 have helped improve conditions across the southern basin, leading to some slight increases in storage levels. Nevertheless, the BOM seasonal outlook for July to September (BOM 2019a) suggests less than average rainfall is likely for much of the southern basin in winter and autumn, driven by a neutral ENSO phase and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Chance of above median rainfall – August to October


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2019–20 water market scenariosABARES outlook scenarios for 2019–20ABARES has developed scenarios for water availability in 2019–20 for key entitlements, summarised in Figure 5. These scenarios draw on allocation scenarios / outlooks from state water agencies as released on 15th July 2019 (detailed further in Appendix A: ABARES outlook scenarios). The scenarios provide an indication of possible (closing) water availability levels under representative ‘extreme dry’, ‘dry’, ‘average’ and ‘wet’ conditions (Figure 5).

Figure 5 Water allocation scenarios for 2019–20 (closing – 30 June 2020)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Average scenario

Wet scenario

Dry scenario

Extreme dry scenario

Historical average

SA Murray High

VIC Murray High

VIC Goulburn High

Murrumbidgee GS

NSW Murray GS

%

100

100

100

25

30

For South Australia, allocations are predicted to reach 100 per cent under the average and wet scenarios by the end of 2019-20. With allocations of 97 per cent predicted under the dry scenario.

Allocations are expected to reach 100 per cent for all Victorian High reliability water rights under the average and wet scenarios. Under the dry scenario the Victorian Murray and Goulburn high reliability allocations are predicted to reach 55 per cent and 43 per cent respectively by the end of 2019–20.

In New South Wales under a dry scenario, allocations are predicted to remain at zero for general security entitlements in the Murrumbidgee and the Murray, increasing to 50 per cent and 55 per cent respectively in the wet scenario.

Modelled water allocation prices in 2019–20Average annual allocation prices and annual trade flows are simulated for each region under extreme dry, dry, average and wet scenarios for 2019–20 using the ABARES Water Trade Model (Gupta, et al. 2018). Based on the assumptions detailed in Appendix A, prices are estimated between $258 per ML in a wet scenario and $651 in an extreme dry scenario in 2019−20 (Table 1).

Modelling results suggest that compared to 2018-19, allocation prices will be higher in 2019-20 in the extreme dry and dry scenarios, but lower in the average and wet scenarios (Figure 6). It is important to note that the Water Trade Model estimates the average annual price. In practice,


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prices are likely to fluctuate throughout the year, around the modelled annual average price (Figure 6).

Figure 6 Allocation price scenarios, in the Victorian Murray below Barmah – 2016 to 2020

$651

$526

$332

$258

$/ML

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20

ActualmonthlypricesModelledannual prices

Extreme dry

Dry

Average

Wet

Source: ABARES Water Trade Model

Table 1: ABARES water allocation price scenarios for 2019–20

Region Extreme Dry($/ML)

Dry($/ML)

Average($/ML)

Wet($/ML)

NSW Murrumbidgee 651 589 422 258

VIC Goulburn-Broken 651 526 332 258

NSW Murray Above 545 491 332 246

VIC Murray Below 651 526 332 258

NSW Lower Darling 90 89 81 258

SA Murray 651 526 332 258

Source: ABARES estimate

Water trade limitsThe results also show differences in prices between catchments under some scenarios due to binding inter-regional water trade limits. For example, the lower limit of the Murrumbidgee IVT is expected to be binding in the dry and average scenarios, restricting the volume of water that can be imported into this region, driving up prices in the Murrumbidgee compared with the Murray (Table 1).

The Barmah choke is also expected to be binding in the dry and extreme dry scenarios. Due to reduced water availability in these scenarios, demand for allocation water is higher downstream of the choke. However, due to hydrological constraints, the volume of water that can be traded


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out of catchments above the choke is restricted, thereby leading to lower water prices above the choke compared to below the choke.

The Lower Darling trade limit is also modelled to restrict exports of water from the region in all but the wet scenario, leading to lower prices in the Darling compared with the rest of the sMDB.

Water supply in 2019-20Allocation forecasts for 2019–20 from state water agencies are combined with estimates of actual carryover into 2019–20, to determine the total available water supply in the southern basin under each scenario (Figure 7). As with state water allocation outlooks, the scenarios designed by ABARES remain indicative only. Actual water allocations will depend on realised seasonal conditions.

All three state water agencies have increased the level of allocation water projected to be available in 2019-20 in some key catchments compared to announcements made in March 2016 (Table A3). There has also been a significant increase in the volume of water carried forward (marked in red, Figure 7) into 2019-20 compared to March (see, Table A4). Carryover volumes into 2019-20 were quite high by historical standards with around 31 per cent of available 2018-19 water supply carried over into 2020-21 (Figure 8).

Across the southern basin, around 3,442 GL of water allocation is forecast to be available for irrigation use in the dry scenario by the end of 2019-20 (including carryover and excluding environmental water) (Figure 7). This would be a 25% decline relative to 2018-19 but still higher than the worst of the Millennium drought (where supply averaged 2,590 GL between 2007-08 and 2008-09). The less likely extreme dry scenario would see water allocation supply fall to around 2,802 GL. Under the average and wet scenarios water availability is forecast to increase to 5,316 GL and 6,112 GL respectively.

Figure 7 Total available water allocation supply in the sMDB

GL

1 500

3 000

4 500

6 000

7 500

9 000

2000

–01

2001

–02

2002

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–04

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Commonwealthenvironmentalwater

GL

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5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000Consumptivecarryover

Total allocations

Available supplyfor consumption

Wet

Average

Dry

Extreme dry

Source: ABARES estimate using data from SA DEW, NSW DPI, NVRM


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Figure 8 Proportion of water carried over relative to annual rainfall

2008

2009

2010

2011

2018

2019

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

mm 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Prop

ortio

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ava

ilabl

e w

ater

supp

ly ca

rrie

d ov

er

Average annual rainfall in the sMDB

Water supply into 2020-21If dry conditions eventuate in 2019–20, modelling suggests a substantial decrease in the volume of water carried forward into 2020–21 (Table A5). For example, irrigators in the Victorian Murray carried over around 711 GL of water into 2019–20, but are projected to carryover a little more than half that (382 GL) into 2020–21 in a dry scenario. As a result, if dry conditions do persist, water prices could increase significantly in 2020–21.


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Appendix A: ABARES outlook scenariosABARES outlook scenariosABARES has designed four outlook scenarios for 2019–20 (Table A1). The outlook scenarios defined by various state water agencies as at 15 July 2019, are also included in Table A1. It is important to note that outlook scenarios released by the states remain indicative only. Actual water allocations will depend on realised seasonal conditions. Outlook scenarios are also subject to updates throughout the year.

As shown in Table A1, the definition of outlook scenarios and the level of information provided can vary by state water agency. The ABARES outlook scenarios are largely based on those used by the Northern Victoria Resource Manager (NVRM). Outlook scenarios from other states are matched against the ABARES scenario definitions.

Table A0 ABARES outlook scenarios matched against state outlook scenarios

ABARES scenario NVRM scenario SA DEW scenario NSW DPI scenario

Extreme dryIn 99 years out of 100, inflows to storages exceed those experienced in this scenario. Rainfall is in the 1st percentile of historical levels.

Extreme dryInflow volumes to storages that are greater in 99 years out of 100.

Exceptionally dry99% likelihood that actual allocations will exceed allocation forecast

Extreme99 chances in 100 of exceeding the allocation forecast

DryIn 90 years out of 100, inflows to storages exceed those experienced in this scenario. Rainfall is in the 10th percentile of historical levels.

DryInflow volumes to storages that are greater in 90 years out of 100.

Very Dry90% likelihood that actual allocations will exceed allocation forecast

Very Dry9 chances in 10 of exceeding the allocation forecast

AverageIn 50 years out of 100, inflows to storages exceed those experienced in this scenario. Rainfall is in the 50th percentile of historical levels.

AverageInflow volumes to storages that are greater in 50 years out of 100.

Average50% likelihood that actual allocations will exceed allocation forecast

Average1 chance in 2 of exceeding the allocation forecast

WetIn 10 years out of 100, inflows to storages exceed those experienced in this scenario. Rainfall is in the 90th percentile of historical levels.

WetInflow volumes to storages that are greater in 10 years out of 100.

Wet25% likelihood that actual allocations will exceed allocation forecast

WetNSW has not released a forecast for this scenario. ABARES assumption.

Source: ABARES, NVRM, SA DEW and NSW DPINote: Allocation forecasts made by NVRM are created using a model of historical inflow volumes, and the chance that actual inflows will be higher than those presented. The wet scenario defined by SA DEW uses a higher likelihood measure, meaning this is a drier scenario than the wet scenario used by ABARES and defined by NVRM.

For each of these scenarios, ABARES has estimated allocations made against each entitlement type, annual rainfall by catchment, volume of water carried over into 2019–20 and the volume of water carried over in 2020–21. The scenarios describe four potential outcomes for the volume of water available for irrigation use in the southern basin in 2019–20. In each scenario, the aggregate demand for irrigation water is assumed to be the same (i.e. at 2018-19 levels). Therefore, prices in each scenario are primarily influenced by seasonal conditions, the volume of


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water available (which is affected by allocation and carryover forecasts), rainfall (which affects crop water requirements) and trade limits that restrict the flow of water between catchments.

RainfallTable A1 shows the assumed annual rainfall in 2019–20 by catchment for each outlook scenario. This is calculated as a percentile of historical annual rainfall between 2000-01 and 2017-18. The rainfall percentile for each scenario is listed in Table A1.

Table A1 Rainfall forecast for 2019–20

Region Extreme Dry (mm)

Dry (mm)

Average (mm)

Wet (mm)

NSW Lower Darling 162.6 180.8 228.4 319.7

NSW Murray Above 253.4 283.5 388.1 487.9

NSW Murray Below 217.4 232.6 322.4 431.8

NSW Murrumbidgee 244.5 304.3 384.4 494.5

SA Murray 214.2 226.1 258.0 373.5

VIC Goulburn-Broken 321.0 337.3 445.4 598.5

VIC Loddon-Campaspe 336.9 341.0 418.4 606.5

VIC Murray Above 342.9 427.4 601.5 721.4

VIC Murray Below 199.7 214.4 272.6 389.0

Source: BOM

AllocationsTable A2 shows the allocation forecasts by entitlement type for 2019–20. While these predominantly reflect the outlook scenarios released by the state water agencies, ABARES has also made some additional assumptions.

In Victoria, ABARES has assumed no allocations are made against low reliability entitlements in 2019–20.

South Australian Class 3a entitlements are assumed to be comparable to high reliability entitlements in Victoria and NSW.

For New South Wales catchments, a number of assumptions were made. In cases where an allocation forecast was not provided for a particular scenario by New South Wales, ABARES assumed that the dry scenario forecast was equal to the extreme dry. Allocations under a wet scenario were assumed to be 25 per cent higher than the average scenario, up to a maximum of 100 per cent.

In addition, although South Australian allocation forecasts under a wet scenario use a different assumption for inflows to other states (see Table A1), in 2019–20 South Australia forecasts 100% allocations in this scenario.


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Table A2 Allocation forecasts for 2019–20, as at 15 July 2019

Region Security Extreme Dry (%)

Dry (%)

Average (%)

Wet (%)

NSW Murray General 0 0 30 55

NSW Murray High 97 97 100 100

NSW Lower Darling General 0 0 25 50

NSW Lower Darling High 20 20 45 70

NSW Murrumbidgee General 0 0 25 50

NSW Murrumbidgee High 95 95 100 100

VIC Murray High 29 55 100 100

VIC Goulburn High 20 43 100 100

VIC Campaspe High 31 44 100 100

VIC Loddon High 20 43 100 100

VIC Broken High 0 0 100 100

SA Murray High 60 97 100 100

Source: NSW DPI, NVRM, SA DEW

Forecast allocations have been updated since the March outlook, and represent an improvement in water availability for a number of key regions (Table A3). There are a few notable exceptions including the South Australian Murray, Victorian Goulburn and New South Wales Lower Darling, which see allocation forecasts decline marginally under the dry scenario.

Table A3 March allocation forecasts for 2019–20

Region Security Dry (%)

Average (%)

Wet (%)

NSW Murray General 0 25 50

NSW Murray High 97 97 97

NSW Lower Darling General 0 25 50

NSW Lower Darling High 100 100 100

NSW Murrumbidgee General 0 25 50

NSW Murrumbidgee High 95 95 95

VIC Murray High 53 100 100

VIC Goulburn High 46 100 100

VIC Campaspe High 34 100 100

VIC Loddon High 36 100 100

VIC Broken High 8 100 100

SA Murray High 100 100 100

Note: extreme dry scenario not previously considered. Wet and average forecasts for NSW calculated by ABARES

CarryoverCarryover estimates for 2019–20 are shown in Table A4. A number of assumptions were made for Victoria and New South Wales and are listed in the sections below. For South Australia, carryover is assumed to be zero. The volume of water estimated to be carried forward in to 2019–20 has increased considerably since the March Outlook, with the total across the southern


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basin increasing by 42 per cent. However, the Murrumbidgee region is expected to have less carryover water available in 2019–20 than previously estimated.

Table A4: Volume carried over into 2019–20, comparison between July and March

RegionPrevious carryover

forecast for 2019–20(ML)

Current carryover estimate for 2019–20

(ML)

VIC Loddon-Campaspe 29,248 34,346

VIC Goulburn-Broken 321,106 466,007

VIC Murray Above 130,060 213,201

VIC Murray Below 277,052 462,320

NSW Murrumbidgee 217,466 151,360

NSW Murray Above 132,039 234,062

NSW Murray Below 39,912 66,915

Total 1,146,883 1,628,212

Source: ABARES estimate using data from SA DEW, NSW DPI, NVRM Note: Under the average and wet scenarios, the 100 per cent rule in the Broken and Loddon regions is likely to be binding.

VictoriaIn Victoria, carryover was calculated from unused water volumes as at 14 June 2019 by catchment. A 5 per cent transmission loss was applied for water carried forward in to 2019–20. Where applicable, an upper bound was applied to the volume of carryover water. For 2019-20, carryover is assumed to be zero for all Victorian low reliability entitlements.

In the Victorian Murray, Goulburn and Campaspe, carryover is allowed up to a maximum of 200 per cent of entitlement volume (both high and low reliability entitlements).

In the Broken and Loddon, the sum of carryover and allocation water cannot exceed 100 per cent of entitlement volume. While irrigators in the Loddon can carry over water against high and low reliability entitlements, irrigators in the Broken can only carry over water against high reliability entitlements.

New South WalesIn New South Wales, carryover estimates were taken from NSW Water Allocation Statements (13 June 2019). The percentage figure reported was multiplied out by volume of entitlements on issue in each catchment. Carryover was assumed to be zero for High security entitlements and for the Lower Darling. No further transmission loss was applied for New South Wales as the carryover percentages reported by New South Wales takes this into account. Above and below splits for carryover were calculated by ABARES for the Victorian Murray and New South Wales Murray in order to simulate the Barmah Choke hydrological constraint.

Carryover into 2020–21Table A5 shows the modelled results for the volume of water carried over into 2020–21. Overall the results suggest lower levels of carryover in to 2020–21 compared to 2019-20, in the extreme dry and dry scenarios.


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https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water/allocations-availability/allocations/statements


Table A5 Projected carryover volume into 2020–21

Region Extreme dry(ML)

Dry(ML)

Average(ML)

Wet(ML)

NSW Murrumbidgee 115,678 122,773 243,138 368,792

NSW Murray 159,745 172,430 404,965 642,112

VIC Murray 265,224 381,888 670,935 852,811

VIC Goulburn-Broken 155,284 221,694 491,551 664,879

VIC Loddon-Campaspe 17,733 20,882 28,409 32,536

Total 713,664 919,668 1,838,997 2,561,129


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ABARES 2019, ABARES water market outlook (pdf 1.0 mb), Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, accessed 1 April 2019.

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Gupta, M, Hughes, N & Wakerman Powell, Kai 2018, A model for water trade and irrigation activity in the southern Murray-Darling Basin, ABARES conference paper, Canberra, January.

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https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/228433/WAS-Murrumbidgee-190515.pdf

https://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/water/allocations-availability/allocations/summary

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/water/future-scenarios-smdb#download-report

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/water/future-scenarios-smdb#download-report

https://www.g-mwater.com.au/water-resources/catchments/storage-levels

http://www.bom.gov.au/water/dashboards/#/water-markets/mdb/at

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/outlooks/#/overview/summary

https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6401.0

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/Documents/WaterMarketOutlook_v1.0.0.pdf

http://www.agriculture.gov.au/abares/research-topics/agricultural-commodities/dec-2018