water, energy, agriculture and climate change nexus in one ... · annual electricity generation 0...
TRANSCRIPT
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Water, energy, agriculture and climate change nexus in one of the most important
hydroelectric basins in Chile
Sebastian Vicuna
“Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Local Adaptation to Climate Change” September 23th - 24th, 2011 - Porto de Galinhas, Brazil
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COUNTRY CONTEXT
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Most economic activity in Chile is developed in the Center-South of the country
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Temperature Projections
2070-2100 2040-2070 2010-2040
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Precipitation projections 2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100
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CASE STUDY CONTEXT
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CONTEXT
The Maule Basin
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Rio Maule basin •Surface: 20.295 Km2
•Main uses
1. Electric Generation • 7.282 GWh/yr • 35% of hydro country total
generation • 18% of total country
generation (CDEC, 2009)
2. Agriculture
• 243.000 Ha • 12% of total agriculture land • 20% of country irrigated land
(Censo Agropecuario, 2007)
3. Urban • Talca - 238.800 hab. • Linares – 100.600 hab. • Parral – 37.800 hab.
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FUTURE SCENARIOS
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Changes in temperature - Echam a1b
5
10
15
20
25
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
°C
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 Control
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
mm
5
10
15
20
25
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Changes in precipitation - Echam a1b
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
mm
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 Control
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Changes in streamflow - upper basin Echam a1b
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
m3/s
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
m3/s
Changes in streamflow - middle basin - Echam a1b
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
m3/s
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
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Annual Electricity Generation
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GWh
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
Monthly average electricity generation
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
GWh
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
%
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0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
GWhAnnual agriculture demand coverage
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
%
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
Agriculture monthly average demand coverage
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
%
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
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Laguna del Maule Storage
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
May
-50
May
-60
May
-70
May
-80
May
-90
Ap
r-00
Ap
r-10
Ap
r-20
Ap
r-30
Ap
r-40
Ap
r-50
Ap
r-60
Ap
r-70
Ap
r-80
Ap
r-90
Ap
r-00
Ap
r-10
Millon m3
2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control
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Uncertainty in projections
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
Δ Temperature (°C)
Δ P
reci
pit
atio
n (
%)
Echam GFDL Hadley
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
Δ Generation (%)
Δ A
nn
ual
Ag
De
live
ry (
%)
Echam GFDL Hadley
Period: 2010-2040
GHG Scenario: b1 a1b
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Discussion
• Water energy nexus – feedbacks. – 10% loss equals the installation of a 100 MW
thermoelectric power plant
• Uncertainty but clear direction
• Water management already a challenge… more in the future
• What if demand changes?… ej. new crops, farmers generating
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Acknowledgments
• People: – David Poblete, Eduardo Bustos
• Institutions: – Colbun S.A., MMA, Junta Vigilancia Rio Maule
• Project: – CORFO-INNOVA: Fortalecimiento de
Capacidades para hacer frente al cambio global
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Obrigado…