water availability report · a high pressure system over southeastern australia moved slowly...

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Water Availability Report 21 August 2017 Overview WaterNSW manages and operates 42 dams and storages to deliver water for environmental, domestic, town water, stock, industrial and irrigation purposes across the state.

WaterNSW storages provide supplies to all of the major river systems in Western NSW, Greater Sydney, the Southern Highlands, Shoalhaven Bay as well as the Hunter, Bega, and Iron Pot valleys in coastal NSW.

The total active storage percentage of rural water supplies on 21 August 2017 was 74.0% of the total active storage capacity. This resulted in an increase of 2.2% from last week.

The total storage level of urban water supplies on 21 August 2017 was 90.7% of the total storage capacity. This was a 0.8% decrease from last week.

System Risks Supply issues in the Lachlan Valley due to low river heights.

BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the in the south and west of the state and median probability for the remainder of the state with warmer minimum and maximum temperatures during spring.

.The Bureau's seasonal outlook indicates the August to October rainfall is likely to be below average for most of southern mainland Australia.

Spills from southern and central storages have about a 25-50% chance of occurring over winter/spring due to relatively high storage levels.

The river fresh flows have reached downstream Balranald Weir on 9th August. The eWater peak is currently passing DS Balranald Weir at about 5.1m.

Irrigation demands have started to increase especially in the Yanco Creek system. Due to very dry July, most broad acre farmers who did not pre-irrigate or do not have on farm storages require water to support the winter cereals.

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Climatic Conditions A high pressure system over southeastern Australia moved slowly eastward. This high moved over the northern Tasman Sea and a series of cold fronts crossed New South Wales later in the week. This resulted in rainfall across the southern part of the state of around 1 – 100mm, with the higher falls being seen on the south west slopes. The following four days saw reduced rainfall in south west slopes whilst the rest of the state remained dry.

Figure 1 - Weekly rainfall totals for New South Wales (w/e 21st August 2017)

A high pressure system is situated off the New South Wales coast while a trough approaches from the west. This trough will weaken as it crosses the state later today and Tuesday, with the region's airmass remaining too dry to generate much rain. A subtle ridge of high pressure will develop in it's wake, before a cold front skims across southern parts of the state late Wednesday and Thursday. Behind this, another ridge looks set to extend across from the west at the end of the week.

Figure 2a - 4 day Forecast (1st 4 days) Figure 2b – Following 4 day forecast (25 - 28/8/17)

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3 Month Forecast Climatic Conditions . BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the in the south and west of

the state and median probability for the remainder of the state.

Figure 3 - 3 month rainfall forecast

The spring (September to November) outlook, issued 17 August 2017, suggests rainfall is likely to be below average for western parts of Australia.

September is likely to be drier in southwest Australia, but wetter in parts of southern Queensland.

Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average for most of Australia. Chances are highest (greater than 80%) in the north and southeast.

Spring nights are likely to be warmer than average over northern and eastern Australia.

Both of Australia's major climate drivers at this time of year, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), remain neutral. More localised influences, such as sea surface temperatures around the Australian coastline, are likely to be affecting this outlook.

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Valley Based Operational Activities Murray Valley Storage Status

Hume Dam is currently at about 85%, releasing about 600 ML/day.

Predicted Release Patterns

Releases from Hume are unlikely to increase given the higher inflows in the Ovens and Kiewa Rivers in the short term.

The flow at downstream Yarrawonga Weir is about 26,500 ML/day. The flows below Yarrawonga are likely to increase due to inflows from Ovens and Kiewa water, leading to environmental benefit to the Barmah-Millewa forest.

Stevens Weir is being held at about 4.4m to assist in diversion to the Wakool district Main canal. The flow at downstream Stevens Weir is about 2,100 ML/day.

Environmental watering events in the Yallakool and Colligen systems are continuing at low rates and are likely to continue to end of August.

The Edward offtake regulator is currently controlling flows, however, the gates is expected to be raised clear of water when high flows of about 20,000ML/day from Yarrawonga arrive at the offtake.

Gulpa Offtake regulator is expected to be raised clear of water when high flows of about 20,000ML/day from Yarrawonga arrive at the offtake.

Operating Conditions

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions recent low inflows there is about a 50% chance of Hume Dam spilling by November. BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter.

Stevens Weir pool is being maintained at about 4.4m, and will be held at about this level to supply water to irrigation in the Wakool system.

Flows at the Wakool River offtake is being maintained at about 30ML/day and may increase.

Water orders for the Wakool District Main Canal are being passed through the Edward River Escape of the Mulwala Canal.

Planned Supply Interruptions

None.

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Lower Darling Valley Storage Status

The lakes currently hold a total volume of about 740 GL or about 38% of active capacity.


Menindee outlet releases to Darling River are currently averaging about 310 ML/d to supply environmental orders above minimum flow targets. Pamamaroo outlet is releasing about 50ML/d.

Releases for operational requirements of MDBA may be delayed due to tributary flows in the Murray.


Approximately 57GL of inflow has been recorded at Lake Wetherell from 1 May 2017 with low flows likely to cease by end of August 2017.

Planning is underway with MDBA to leave enough water in the upper lakes, to secure Broken Hill and Lower Darling supplies, through a repeat of the worst drought on record.


Nil

Murrumbidgee Valley Storage Status

Burrinjuck Dam is currently at about 57% releasing about 1,400 ML/day.

Blowering Dam is about 81% releasing about 560ML/day.


The releases from Burrinjuck are likely to remain around the minimum planned releases as per

transparency / translucency rules.

The releases from Blowering dam are likely to remain at minimum releases of 560ML/day or less as

per transparency rules.


Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is about a 35% chance of both Burrinjuck and Blowering Dams spilling by October 2017. BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter.

The river fresh flows have reached downstream Balranald Weir on 9th August. The eWater peak is currently passing DS Balranald Weir at about 5.1m.

Irrigation demands have started to increase especially in the Yanco Creek system. Due to very dry July, most broad acre farmers who did not pre-irrigate or do not have on farm storages require water to support the winter cereals.

All the lay flat gates in the Beavers Creek Offtake have been fully lowered, as per the Work Approval

conditions, to allow free fish passage.

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The current diversion into the Yanco Creek is about 250ML/d.

In addition about 80ML/day from CCD and 60ML/day from DC800 escapes of CICL has been called to meet the Yanco – Billabong system demands.

The excess flow in the system from the tributary inflows US of Wagga Wagga is being captured for re-regulation in Tombullen and Hay Weirs.


Blowering Dam Hydro Electric Power Station run by Snowy Hydro has completed the planned

maintenance between 14 and 18 August 2017. However, opportunistic maintenance tasks would

continue when the release for irrigation and other downstream demands are below the capacity

(1,900ML/day).

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Blowering Dam Forecast Storage LevelsUpdated mid-July 2017

Minimum 99% COE Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE Wet 20% COE

* Including Snowy releases

Actual Forecast

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Burrinjuck Dam Forecast Storage LevelsUpdated mid-July 2017

Minimum 99% COE Dry 80% COE Median 50% COE Wet 20% COE

* Including Snowy releases

Actual Forecast

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Lachlan Valley Storage Status

Carcoar dam is at 91% and releases are at the riparian flow of 2 ML/d.

Wyangala Dam is at 88% of capacity and releases have averaged about 330 ML/d.

Predicted Release Patterns The tributaries downstream of Carcoar Dam are still able to meet the minimum flow at Helensholme,

therefore the release from Carcoar Dam will be maintained at the minimum of 2 ML/d.

The release from Wyangala Dam is currently at 380 ML/d where the release is set to power station B

minimum.

BOM forecasted an average of 1-2 mm of rainfall for today and nothing for the rest of the week,

therefore with such forecasts, we are seeing an increase in orders again.

The cancellation of water orders after it has been released from the dam has resulted in an operational

loss of over 5000 ML in the upper Lachlan. As Lake Cargelligo is nearly full and Lake Brewster is over

70%, operational losses of this magnitude may not be reregulated in the lower lakes and consequently

will impact all licence holders with their future allocation increments.

Currently there are no rules in the Lachlan WSP to stop cancellation of water orders after it has been

released from the dam. However, WSP condition 53 provides for implementation of water order

debiting rule either for individual licences or valley wide under certain circumstances.

If cancellation of water orders on the forecast of rain has become an issue then WaterNSW may make

a recommendation to CAG (former CSC) for its consideration to implement water order debiting.

Delivery of Stock and Domestic replenishment flows into Merrowie, Muggabah and Willandra Creeks

have ceased. Delivery to Merrowie Creek ceased on 15 July 2017, Willandra Creek on 2nd August

2017 and Muggabah Creek on 17th August 2017. The landholders at the lower end in Muggabah Creek

may expect the flows to run in for another 2 to 3 weeks.

The Lower Lachlan releases at Brewster have been averaging 230 ML/d to meet the demands of

irrigation orders.


Supplementary access on the Belubula River recommenced on 21st May 2017 and continues.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 25% chance of Wyangala Dam

spilling by end of September 2017. However, BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of

median rainfall in the catchment this winter.

The ongoing assessment of airspace requirements at Wyangala has not yet indicated the need to

make pre-releases.

The translucent flow period is from mid-May to mid-November at the dam. The inflows to Wyangala

Dam from January to 21st August totalled 66 GL. Another 184 GL of dam inflows are required in order

to trigger any delivery of translucent environmental water. As there is only 147 GL of airspace left in

Wyangala Dam, it is highly likely that all three storages will fill and spill before commencement of any

translucent environmental water delivery.

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Lake Cargelligo storage is currently at 96.7% and it is planned to maintain the storage level below

100%.

Despite that the current flows in the lower Lachlan River between Brewster Weir and Booligal Weir are

higher than seasonal flows experienced in the recent years, some customers have difficulties pumping

their small orders due to low river levels and inadequate setup of their extraction works and may lose

their winter crop without further rain.

The flows in the regulated section of the Willandra Creek have dropped off quicker than previous years

at the completion of the S&D replenishment flows. In previous years, the infestation of aquatic

vegetation within the channel provided a buffer and consequently provided a slow recession of flows.

Whereas this year the clearing of the aquatic vegetation by the 2016 floods has resulted in a rapid drop

in flows. Flows have been increased at the offtake to maintain minimal flows in the creek.

The Island Creek fish ladder was re-opened on the 2nd August 2017.

As of 17th August 2017, the Lake Brewster level is 139m and overall, Lake Brewster is currently at

73% holding about 106 GL.

OEH has confirmed that there is no new evidence of young pelican chicks and informed WaterNSW

that the pelican colony is unlikely to be sensitive to the changes in the lake level. Therefore, water has

been diverted from the inflow wetlands into the northern cells.

Latest samples from Lake Brewster show no cyanobacteria except the outlet channel. The outlet

channel is dominated by benign cyanobacteria. All sites are currently at green alert levels.

Planned Supply Interruptions A workshop was held on 1 August 2017 after Cowra experienced poor water quality between January

28 and Feb 6 this year. Treated water turbidity exceeded the critical limit of 0.5 NTU on four occasions.

Poor clarifier performance (settled water turbidity exceeded the critical limit of >5 NTU) which put

excess load onto the filters and caused turbidity breakthrough in the treated water. The root cause was

identified as changes in raw water temperatures (caused by unseasonal high temperatures) which led

to poor clarifier performance.

During the above incident, the water temperatures just d/s of Wyangla dam was on an average of 12-15

degrees C and near Cowra intake was 20 – 26 degrees C and the release flowrate was around 1500

ML/d. Taking this information into consideration, it was clear that releases from Wyangala dam had little

influence in manipulating the change in water temperature during the water quality incident at Cowra

Council.

The outcome of the workshop concluded that the council requires a better long term infrastructure

solution but in the meantime, WaterNSW was asked to assist in a trial in this coming summer by pulsing

higher flows when the Cowra experiences high temperature similar to this year’s temperatures. The

overall releases should be within the limits of the power station capacity, within the daily average of the

required releases and do not create a change of more than 0.2m at Cowra in order to reduce bank

slumping.

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Account spill and reset of general security allocations

If WaterNSW were to commence dam releases to maintain airspace in Wyangala Dam, it will trigger an

account spill and reset of general security allocation accounts, high security spillable sub-accounts and

the conveyance licence account as per section 56 of the Lachlan WSP. DPI Water has announced that

if there is an account spill and reset there will be no further reset in the following 6 months.

Macquarie Valley Storage Status

Burrendong Dam is currently at 84.1% and Windamere Dam is at 48.9% of active capacity.


Currently releases from Burrendong are 2750ML/d and would gradually reduce to 2000ML/d during this

week. Majority of the water released from the dam is for delivering environmental flows. A total of ~120

GL will be delivered to the Macquarie Marshes over 90 days. About 35GL down the Marebone Break

and 85GL downstream of Marebone Weir in the Macquarie River.

Release made from Burrendong Dam for environmental flows last week are now passing through

Marebone Weir and are getting diverted as per the orders into Marebone Break and d/s Marebone weir.

As part of a three-year watering strategy for Macquarie Marshes resilience, it is planned to deliver about

135 GL in 2017-18 from combined licenced and EWA allocations. In addition, a native fish connection

flow to the Barwon River and a fish dispersal flow in the Mid-Macquarie River may be delivered if the

right conditions are triggered.

Releases from Windamere are approximately 27 ML/d. Due to dry conditions the orders have slightly

increased.

It is anticipated that orders for summer watering may not commence until after October. Most irrigators

are likely to use the water in their on-farm storages first. The initial indications are that a total of about

400 GL may be extracted for irrigation this water year.

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Based on 24th July test results, Windamere Dam is on Amber alert due to detection of Dolichospermum

sp. at the recreational area.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 20% chance of Burrendong Dam

reaching 100% by end of September 2017. However, BoM is forecasting a lower than average

probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter. Burrendong Dam currently has airspace of

184 GL to 100% and another 490 GL of airspace in the FMZ. It is highly likely that demand for

environmental watering and irrigation from August will increase the airspace further.

Minimal winter irrigation water usage is expected this year, with water being planned for higher value

summer cropping.


The Burrendong cold water pollution curtain is not expected to be returned to operation until spring

2017.

The works on the main penstock at Burrendong Dam have been successfully completed on time as

planned. The penstock is now recharged and the hydro power station and two large discharge valves

are in operation. The third large discharge valves will be in operation by end of this week.

DPI Water has approved rule changes relating to accounting of carryover spill in the WSP to minimise

the impact of planned outage of outlet works on the individual’s total available water.

A customer notice has been issued with the modification of the accounting rule.

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Namoi Valley Storage Status

Keepit Dam is at 68%, Split Rock Dam is at 30% and Chaffey Dam is at 94% of active capacity.

An AWD of 7.08% has been made this month for Lower Namoi general security access licences. This is

the first general security AWD for this year, and is in addition to the carryover water, equivalent to 80%

of general security shares, remaining in accounts from last year.

Predicted Release Patterns Minimal releases are expected over the winter within the Upper and Lower Namoi Valleys, though with

warm and dry conditions, releases to meet demand in the Upper Namoi are expected to gradually

increase.

End of System releases to meet regulatory requirements have ceased.

Some small volumes of winter deliveries are expected throughout late August/early September for crops

which have not received any useful rainfall throughout winter.

Higher volume general security releases are not expected to commence from Keepit Dam until mid to

late September 2017 to meet summer cropping demand.

Operating Conditions Generally catchment conditions are more positive in the east to drying in the west, though end of

system flows have maintained low flows over winter inflows.

Inflow from the Peel into the Lower Namoi continues, though receding.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 20% chance of Keepit Dam spilling

by October. BoM is forecasting an average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this over the

next three months.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is less than a 5% chance of Split Rock

Dam spilling by October.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 50% chance of Chaffey Dam

spilling sometime before September. BoM is forecasting an average probability of median rainfall over

the next three months (though warmer than average temps are forecast).

A Bulk Water Transfer of approximately 67GL is planned to be undertaken from Split Rock to Keepit

Dam in January 2018 if conditions remain dry. A customer and community meeting was held last week

in Manilla, and further meetings will be scheduled over the coming months.

Planned Supply Interruptions Annual maintenance of weirs is complete; some minor work will be undertaken on manual structures.

No supply interruptions envisaged.

The iSMART upgrade work will restrict weir operations during the cutover, though there is not expected

to be any supply issues to customers.

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Gwydir Valley Storage Status

Copeton Dam is at 53%

An AWD of 11.02% has been made this month for Gwydir general security access licences. This is the

first general security AWD for this year, and is in addition to the water, equivalent to 61% of general

security shares, remaining in accounts from last year.

Predicted Release Patterns The environmental delivery of 10GL planned to be undertaken in the 1st week of September, has been

brought forward to this week.

Irrigation demand is not expected to occur until later in September early October.

Operating Conditions Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is less than a 5% chance of Copeton

Dam spilling by December. BoM is forecasting an average probability of median rainfall in the

catchment over the next three months.

Inflows into Copeton have been approximately 6 000ML for the month.

Small stock and domestic/riparian flows have been provided to each stream utilising recent downstream

tributary flows.


Annual weir maintenance has been completed for all sites except Tareelaroi over the winter months.

The Copeton Dam main penstock is currently dewatered to undertake maintenance work until the end

of this week. Releases of up to 500ML/day are still possible and no supply interruptions are foreseen at

this time.

The iSMART upgrade work will restrict weir operations during the cutover, though there is not expected

to be any supply issues to customers.

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Border Rivers Storage Status

Pindari Dam is at 100% and Glenlyon at 74%.

Predicted Release Patterns No irrigation releases are anticipated to be required until November 2017 due to the amount of water

on-farm.

A stimulus flow has begun 21 August 2017, a total of 8.4GL is planned to be released over 50 days

dependant on conditions throughout the delivery.

Operating Conditions Hydro station utilisation continues to be maximised at Pindari Dam.

On-farm storages are quite full with high levels of supplementary access and overland flow throughout

April 2017.

Catchment conditions remain positive though downstream tributary inflows are receding.

Some small volumes of general security water are being taken as customers seek to manage quite full

accounts

Winter access (small supplementary users), has ceased on the Dumaresq. Access remains available on

the Macintyre.

Planned Supply Interruptions The Pindari high level offtake has been returned to service.

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Hunter Valley Storage Status

Glenbawn Dam is at 87.2%, while Glennies Creek Dam is at 82.3%, and Lostock Dam is 98.5% of active capacity.


Releases at Glenbawn Dam are approximately 140 ML/d.

Glennies Creek Dam is releasing 41 ML/d.

Lostock Dam is releasing approximately 32ML/d.


Demand has stabilised at the levels from last week.

Dam Spill Likelihood: Based on historical inflow conditions there is a 10% chance of Hunter Dams spilling by December. However, BoM is forecasting a lower than average probability of median rainfall in the catchment this winter.


Nil

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Bega River Storage Status

Brogo Dam at 100.1% and spilling.


Will continue to pass inflows currently 26 ML/d.


Not experiencing any great demand with licence required releases seeming to supply them.

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Hunter Dams - Forecast Storage Levels Minimum annual percentile inflows from 1 July 2017

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Toonumbar Dam Storage Status

Toonumbar Dam 100.4%.


Passing 17 ML/day. Will continue to pass inflows.


Inflows are decreasing while demand is increasing.

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WATER NSW - DAM LEVELS

The following table shows the current status of water supplies at 21 August 2017 1 Gigalitre (GL) = 1,000 Megalitres (ML) 1 ML = 1,000,000 litres

Rural Water Supply Weekly updates:

Urban Water Supply Updates: http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels

River Valley

Capacity

Current Status

Weekly change

(GL)

Comments

Likelihood

Allocations for 2017/18

Storage Dam, Nearest Town

(GL)

% of

active capacity

Active (GL)

Supply Issues

of fill and spill

High

Security

General Security

Carry-over @ 1/7/17

Border Rivers 100% 8% 90%

Glenlyon Dam, Stanthorpe Qld 254 74% 188 -0

Pindari Dam, Inverell 312 100% 311 -0 Regulated releases for stimulus flows 100%

Gwydir Valley

Copeton Dam, Inverell 1 343 53% 717 0 Minimum releases with increasing environmental flows <5% 100% 11% 60%

Namoi Valley

Keepit Dam, Gunnedah 419 68% 285 0 20% 100% 7% 80%

Split Rock Dam, Manilla 394 30% 120 -0 <5% 100% 100% N/A

Chaffey Dam, Tamworth 100 95% 95 0 50% 100% 100% N/A

Macquarie Valley

Burrendong Dam, Wellington 1 154 84% 971 -19 Environmental deliveries 30% 100% 38% 73%

Windamere Dam, Mudgee 367 49% 179 -0 <5% 100% 38% 137%

Oberon Dam, Oberon 45 86% 39 -0 100%

Lachlan Valley

Wyangala Dam, Cowra 1 219 88% 1 071 1 Delivering irrigation and S&D replenishment flows 35% 100% 2% 108%

Carcoar Dam, Carcoar 36 91% 33 0 100% 0% 95%

Murrumbidgee Valley 95% 23% 27%

Burrinjuck Dam, Yass 1 023 57% 583 16 Irrigation 35%

Blowering Dam, Tumut 1 607 81% 1 294 30 Irrigation 35%

Murray Valley Environmental deliveries 97% 13% 41%

Dartmouth, Mitta Mitta (Vic) 3 817 80% 3 040 71

Hume Dam, Albury 3 036 84% 2 560 158 50%

Lower Darling 100% 100% 77%

Menindee Lakes, Broken Hill 1 582 43% 739 -7 Environmental deliveries N/A

Hunter Valley 100% 100% 28%

Glenbawn Dam, Scone 750 88% 657 1 Regulated releases 20% 100% 100%

Glennies Ck Dam, Singleton 282 83% 235 2 20% 100% 100%

Lostock Dam, Gresford 20 98% 19 -0 Regulated releases 100% 100% 100% N/A

Coastal Area

Toonumbar Dam, Kyogle 11 100% 11 -0 Spilling 100% 100% 100% N/A

Brogo Dam, Bega 9 100% 9 -0 Regulated Releases, uncontrolled flow ceased 100% 100% 45% N/A

TOTALS 17 780 74.0% 13 157 252

: NSW has water resources in Dartmouth, Hume and Glenlyon Dams. TWS = Town Water Supplies

http://www.waternsw.com.au/supply/dam-levels/greater-sydneys-dam-levels

water availability report · a high pressure system over southeastern australia moved slowly...

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