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Carbon Waste Management Klaus S Lackner September, 2017 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs

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Page 1: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

CarbonWasteManagement

KlausSLacknerSeptember,2017

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs

Page 2: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

Carbondioxidepilesuplikegarbage

• Carbondioxideemissionsstayintheatmosphereforcenturies

• Warmingfromcarbondioxidelastsforamillennium

• Excesscarbonacidifiestheoceanformillennia

NeedtoconvincepeopleandcorporationstocleanuptheirCO2 garbageCreateamovementlikerecycling

MovingtoawastemanagementparadigmrepresentsabigshiftindealingwithCO2

Reduce,Reuse,Recycle+DISPOSALCostofdisposalmotivatesReuse

Page 3: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

Theglobalcarbonbudgetisheadingintooverdraft

ParisAgreement:holdwarmingbelow1.5°Coratmost2°C• Promisedemissionsreductionswillreach4°C,businessasusualmorethan6°C• Cannotstopanymoreintime

IPCC:neednegativeemissions• PullingCO2 backfromtheair• StoringCO2 safelyandpermanently

Thepercapitafuelallotmentfor2°CMustlastforgenerations

http://www.emercedesbenz.com/Aug08/08_001327_Mercedes_Benz_Econic_Semi_Trailer_Tanker_Trucks_Enter_Service_At_London_Farnborough_Airport.html

MajorbusinessriskforinvestorsOpportunityforleaders

Page 4: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

TechnologiesforCarbonManagement

• CarbonStorageDisposalofexcesscarbonundergroundEstablishedtechnologybutnotatscale

• PointSourceCaptureProvenbutnotwidelydeployed

• FuelSynthesisConvertingrenewableenergyintoliquidfuelsBasedonproventechnology,needsscaling

• DirectAirCaptureofCarbonDioxideNoveltechnologywehaveintroducedNeedsdemonstrationandscaling

Page 5: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

TechnologyGap:DirectAirCaptureNeed:ClosureofcarboncycleviaDirectAirCapture(DAC)• OnlyDirectaircapturecanscaletoclosethecarboncyclethroughtheair

Feasibility:Technologyworksinsubmarines,butisstilltooexpensive• Costsimposedbyphysicsareaffordable

energyrequirementislessthan5%ofenergyincarbon• Othertechnologieshavesolvedmoredifficultextractionproblems

Passivecollectorscanpulluraniumoutofseawateratreasonablecost(100,000timesmoredilutethanCO2 inair)

Cost:Designchoicesandlearningbydoingcandrivecostdown• Passivedevicestandinginthewindlikeawindmillminimizesenergyandcapitalcosts• Ourmoistureswingsorbentstradeexpensiveenergyforcheapwater• Massmanufacturingcandrivecostdownbyhugefactors

Anaircollectorcouldcapture100to500timesasmuchCO2 asisavoidedbyanequallysizedwindmill.

Massproductioncandrasticallyreducecost(photovoltaicpanels,computers,cars)

Page 6: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

Air Capture is Real

Research is proceeding at a number of universitiesASU, Georgia Tech, Columbia University, ETH Zurich, Sheffield University, Zhejiang University, …

• Several start-ups have working prototypes• Different approaches, different markets• Gaining experience, demonstrating costs• Establishing a new technology

….

Page 7: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

AvoidingSherwood’sRule

Sherwood’sRule

Thecostofthefirststepintheseparationdominates

𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 = 𝑎𝐷 + 𝑏 + 𝑐 log𝐷

SOURCE:NationalResearchCouncil(1987)

Ufromseawater

AirCaptureAspiration

Bulkprocessing

Thermodynamicseparation

Sherwood’sRuleforminerals~$10/tonofore

CostofseparationscaleslinearlywithdilutionD

Page 8: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

ASU’saircapturedesign

§ Passivewind-drivendesignavoidsSherwood’sobjection§ Moisturecontrolledsorbent reducesenergyconsumption§ Massproductionofsmallunitsdrivescostsdown

LessonsareappliedinaDOEprojecttofeedCO2 toalgaePrototypetestedontheroof

Page 9: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global
Page 10: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

Howtomovetoscale?

RelyonlearningMassproductionapproach

FindmarketsSmallcommercialniches

CreatevaluepropositionValueisultimatelyderivedfromcleanupWastemanagementparadigm

Technologycanreachglobalscaleswithpropermarketincentives

Mass-producedfactory-builtone-ton-per-dayunits

100millionunitswouldeliminatecurrentworldemissions

Page 11: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

wikipedia pictures

10yearlifetimeimpliesaproductioncapacityof10millionperyear

Shanghaiharborprocesses30millionfullcontainersayear

Worldcarandlighttruckproduction:80millionperyear

ProductionCapacity

Page 12: watch?v=4dHjCjrYcfs Carbon Waste Management September ......represents a big shift in dealing with CO 2 Reduce, Reuse, Recycle + DISPOSAL Cost of disposal motivates Reuse The global

Lowcostcomeswithexperience

pricedroppedfortyfold

pricedroppedhundredfold

costoflightingfell7000foldinthe20th

century

WikipediapicturesIngredientcostsarealreadysmall– smallunits:lowstartupcost

$600

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

APS (low tech, first-of-a-kind)

GRT (first-of-a-kind)

Practical interest

PertonCO2

Raw material and energy limit (frictionless cost)

ThePoweroftheLearningCurve


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