washington area economy: performance and outlookcra.gmu.edu/pdfs/current_indicators.pdfapr-11 apr-12...

5/27/2016

1

May 27, 2016

Washington Area Economy: Performance

and Outlook

Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Policy, Government & International Affairs

George Mason University

Presentation to

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

% C

ha

ng

e in

GD

P*

Quarters After Trough*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5/27/2016

2

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Quarters After Trough

% C

ha

ng

e in

GD

P*

Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP

Past Four Recessions

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars

Contributions to Post Recession RecoveriesAverage Growth After 27 Quarters

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

4.6

3.6

2.42.1

2.8

2.3

1.6 1.5

0.4 0.3

-0.2

0.20.6

0.8 0.7 0.6

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2

Recession

GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports

Avg

% C

hg

5/27/2016

3


6.2%

8.3%

9.3%

12.2%

8.9%

11.9%

11.1%

12.7%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Pe

rce

nt

of

GD

P

Quarters After Start of Recession

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Increasing Role of Exports% of GDP 27 Quarters Post-Recession


3.4%

4.3%

3.5% 4.1%

5.2%

3.3%

2.7%

3.5%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27

Pe

rce

nt

of

GD

P

Quarters After Start of Recession

1982-Q3

1991-Q1

2001-Q4

2009-Q2

Decreasing Role of Residential Investment% of GDP 27 Quarters Post-Recession

5/27/2016

4

U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan


2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

5/27/2016

5

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

Mfg

N-Mfg

ISM Manufacturing and

Non-Manufacturing Indices

Source: Institute for Supply Management

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth-Over-Year

(000s)

Apr =

+2.7M

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5/27/2016

6

-900

-700

-500

-300

-100

100

300

500

700

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

(000s)

US Payroll Job ChangeMonth-to-Month

Apr =

+160

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016

7

35

71

73

67

129

160

-19

449

337

99

611

673

-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800

Federal Govt.

Information

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

(000s) Total = 2,692Ranked by Size in 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted),

GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5/27/2016

7

U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016

-9

0

9

5

3

-7

20

4

22

-3

-2

65

54

-50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90

Federal Govt.

Information

Transp. & Util.

Other Services

Wlse Trade

Construction

Financial

Manufacturing

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

Educ & Health Svcs

(000s)

Total =

160

Ranked by Size in 2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted),

GMU Center for Regional Analysis

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average

May 21: 268K

Source: Department of Labor

(000s)

5/27/2016

8

250

300

350

400

450

500

May 21

268

Source: Department of Labor

(000s)

Initial Claims for Unemployment2011-Present 4-Week Moving Average

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

U.S. Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics May 2016

Apr = 5.0

%

IHS Forecast

16 – 4.9

17 – 4.8

18 – 4.8

19 – 5.1

20 – 5.1

5/27/2016

9

Oil Prices$ per barrel

0

20

40

60

80

100

12020

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

$/barrel

Source: IHS Economics May 2016

Forecast > > > > >

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16

100

Consumer Confidence


Expectations

Current Situation

5/27/2016

10

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

Consumer Prices

2001 - 2020Forecast > > >

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics May 2016

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

30-Yr

10-Yr

Treas

Fed

Interest Rates

2001 - 2020Forecast > > >

Source: IHS Economics May 2016

5/27/2016

11

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Existing (Left Axis)

New (Right Axis)

U.S. New and Existing Home Sales

(000s) (000s)

Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)

Growth in Total Consumption Outlays

3.1

3.83.5

3

2.2

-0.3

-1.6

1.92.3

1.51.7

2.73.1

2.7 2.9

2.6 2.5 2.3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics May 2016

Forecast > > > >

5/27/2016

12

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

GDP

Non-Res: Structures

Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr

Residential Fixed

State & Local

Federal

U.S. Economic Performance


Forecast > > > > > >%

U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2016


-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6Forecast

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

%

5/27/2016

13

-8000

-6000

-4000

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

Annual Change in US Employed Workers* (000s)

Apr =

+2.5 M

*employed workers include full-time, part-time, self-employed and contract workersSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16

U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices

Mar 2009 – Mar 2016RECESSION

Source: The Conference Board

C.I.

L.I.

5/27/2016

14

The Washington Economy

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month

Moving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

5/27/2016

15

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change

12-Month

Moving Average

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16(000s)

Annual Job Change – MOTYC

Washington MSA


5/27/2016

16

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

(000s)


District of Columbia


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16(000s)


Suburban Maryland


5/27/2016

17

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

6

(000s)


Northern Virginia


15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200(000s)

Washington +71,700


5/27/2016

18

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Washington +2.3%


Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2016

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

200

2

200

5

200

8

(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


5/27/2016

19

Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Washington MSA

1

2

0

-2

2

3

11

15

12

4

7

1

17

(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 71,700


Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Washington MSA

1

0

0

0

0

0

3

103

0

1

0

6

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0

Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade

ManufacturingInformation

FinancialOther Services

ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.

Retail TradeState & Local Govt

Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total = 25,700


5/27/2016

20

Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200

2

200

5

200

8

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

(000s)

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Apr-16

Total: 735.7


Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSAAnnual Month Over the Year

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


(000s)

5/27/2016

21

Federal GovernmentWashington MSA

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

200

2

200

5

200

8

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

Ma

y

Au

g

No

v

Fe

b

(000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-16 Total: 364.2

Annual Data Annual Month over Year

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia, 2002-2016

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


5/27/2016

22

Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016District of Columbia

0

0

0

0

1

0

0

2

2

2

2

1

2

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 11,500


Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016District of Columbia

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0

0

1

1

2

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 6,200


5/27/2016

23

Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland, 2002-2016

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Suburban Maryland

0

0

0

-1

1

2

7

4

4

2

4

1

4

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 26,400


5/27/2016

24

Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Suburban Maryland

0

0

0

0

1

0

1

4

2

0

0

0

1

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 9,400


Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2016

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

200

2

200

5

200

8


2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


5/27/2016

25

Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Northern Virginia

0

2

0

0

1

3

1

6

6

2

3

-1

9

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 31,700


Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Northern Virginia

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

4

2

0

0

0

3

(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

State & Local Govt

Educ & Health Svcs

Federal Govt.

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

(000s) Total 10,600


5/27/2016

26

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

6.3 – DC

5.0 – U.S.

4.2 – SMD

4.1 – MSA

3.4 - NVA

Unemployment Rates in the WMSA

By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateMar 2016

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0%

US: 5.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

5/27/2016

27

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

199

1

199

2

199

3

199

4

199

5

199

6

199

7

199

8

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

(000s)

Metro Washington

Annual Change in Employed ResidentsMonth-Over-Year


Annual Change – Residents EmployedWashington MSA

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150


2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


5/27/2016

28

4

0

9

20

31

80

41

69

70

-5

-7

-10

-12

-10

-8

-49

-34

-23

0

-24

-100 -75 -50 -25 0

Transp. & Util.

Wlse Trade

Manufacturing

Information

Financial

Other Services

Construction

Leisure & Hosp.

Retail Trade

Educ & Health Svcs

Prof. & Bus. Svcs

WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery

(000s)


Total -181 Total 323

Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Ap 2016

15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2011 – 2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(000s)

Washington +39,500


5/27/2016

29


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(000s)

Washington + 28,100



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

(000s)

Washington + 18,600


5/27/2016

30

Housing Market Trends

(60.0)

(40.0)

(20.0)

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

Apr =

-0.6%

Percent Change in

Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-Year 2000 – 2016, MSA

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory

includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

5/27/2016

31

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

199

9

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Existing Home Sales

Washington MSA

Through Apr 2016

12-Month Moving Average

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Listings Per SaleApr Each Year

-

5

10

15

20

25

LDN

PG

FFXARL

DC

MONT

PW


5/27/2016

32

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Median House Sales Price

Washington MSA

$394.0KApr 2016


(000s)

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types

5

10

1414

2022

2 1

-17

-10

5

13 2

6 69

3 4 4

78

10

14

6

119 8 8

98

78 9

4 5

89

35

2 2 1 2

-1

5

1

4 5

12

0

0

-1

1 0

3

0

4

-3-2

0

0

1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30%Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2012 2013 2014 2015


%

5/27/2016

33

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeDistrict of Columbia All Housing Types

13

22

14

10

1819

-1

20

-10

4 3

108 8

0

14

-3-4

4

13

7

1314

1

8

46

2

15

11

5

17

4 5

-5

1011

-1

1211

64

-1

-6

12

0

10

75 5

1 1

-2

3

89

6

10

-1-3

-2

5

1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%


%

Annual Change Annual Change by Month

2012 2013 2014 2015

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeSuburban Maryland All Housing Types

36

1414

1922

63

-8

-16

-5-3-4

-2-1

1011

5 4

0

911

6

14

4

1111

810

111212

6

9 10

5

1213

5 4

1

0-2

24 4

-3

2 1

-3

1 1

-1-1

3

-1

3

-4

5

-1

35

-2

2

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%


%


2012 2013 2014 2015

5/27/2016

34

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types

5

121414

2123

2

-2

-23

-7

10

34

2

9

57

35 5

36

10

13

910

9 98 7 6

4

810

2

64 5

13

1 2 24

-1

24 5

8

4 4

0

20

0-1

23 2

-4-2

0 0

2

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

%



2012 2013 2014 2015

%

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Detached

21

42

-19

-11

4

0

2 24 5

7

3 4 35

710

15

4

10111010

8 8 89

11

3 47

11

1

6

25

0 1

-1

3

0

1

6

-1

1

-20

-4

2

-1

1 0

4

-1-20 0

2

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005

2008

2011

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

%

Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisJan % ∆: DC = +8.8; SM = +0.5; NV = -3.5


2012 2013 2014 2015

5/27/2016

35

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Attached

23

20

-22

-8

8

35 5

8 79

53 4

1013

17

96

13101010

141310

7 64

7

16

63

5 52

41 1

4 36

0

3 31 0

-3-2

1

52

7

-3-2

03 2

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

302005

2008

2011

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

%

Jan % ∆: DC = 0.0; SM = -4.8; NV = -0.1Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%


2012 2013 2014 2015

Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Condos

24

2 3

-9-10

0

-2

2 2

6

107 8 8 8 9

7 7

1512

118

53

13

3

8 8 710

6 810

47

5

-5

3 3

-1

9

4

10

5

1 0 0 0

5

0 0

6

-6

-1

-10

-5

3

-1-3

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

2005

2008

2011

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

Ju

n

Se

p

Dec

Mar

%

Jan % ∆: DC = -8.2; SM = -5.2; NV = -0.4Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

%


2012 2013 2014 2015

5/27/2016

36

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Washington MSABuilding Permits

2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg

Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

Total Active Listings Per Sale Apr Each Year – Metro Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


5/27/2016

37

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020

Washington Area and Sub-State Areas(Annual % Change)

DC

SM

MSA

NV

%

Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

D.C. 13.0 6.5 14.7 14.1 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2

Sub. MD 6.1 11.1 17.4 20.2 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0

No. VA 8.9 1.3 27.3 25.5 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6

REGION 28.0 18.9 59.4 59.8 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8

Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016)

NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.

5/27/2016

38

-4

-2

0

2

4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

%

Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP

2007 – 2015 – 2020(Annual % Change)

Washington

U.S.

%

Thank You

Questions

cra.gmu.edu

washington area economy: performance and outlookcra.gmu.edu/pdfs/current_indicators.pdfapr-11 apr-12...

Documents