wasco county events- an economic impact analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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Wasco County Events:
An Economic Impact Analysis
By Nhi Dao & Anne Westmoreland
Prepared for Amanda Hoey, Wasco County Economic Development Commission (EDC)
Under the Supervision of Prof. Joe Stone
Department of Economics University of Oregon
Spring 2014
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY…………………………………………………………... 3
II. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………... 4
III. LITERATURE REVIEW………………………………………………………….. 6
IV. METHODOLOGY…………………………………………………………………..9
V. ANALYSIS…………………………………………………………………………..10
What the Festival………………………………………………………………...11
RiverFest…………………………………………………………………………15
VI. LIMITATIONS AND SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS………….18
VII. CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………20
VIII. REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………...22
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I. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This paper is dedicated to studying the economic impacts of two outdoor events,
‘What the Festival and ‘RiverFest’, on the local community of Wasco County. What the
Festival (WTF) is a music and culture festival that takes place in the summer, offering a
variety of amenities such as an outdoor hookah lounge, poolside music arena, ample
lounge space, interactive art installations, food carts, as well as artisan craft booths.
RiverFest occurs on Memorial Day weekend and is a family-friendly festival featuring
music, food, craft, and art vendors, fishing demos, rafting, and environmental
organizations. the results of this study will inform the Wasco County Economic
Development Board in assessing their policies on event permits.
We rely on spending analysis methods to measure the economic impacts of What
the Festival and RiverFest. These impacts include direct, indirect and induced impacts,
which ware explained in depth in the Methodology section. Due to limited primary data,
We draw on data from other studies of similar types of events and adapt them for our
analysis.
Briefly, our results indicate that the total economic impacts on incomes in Wasco
County of What the Festival 2013 and RiverFest 2013 are just under one million and
and a half million in 2013 dollars, respectively. We conclude that What the Festival 2013
and RiverFest 2013 appear to have not only brought profits to the organizations hosting
them but also helped generate new economic activities in Wasco county, thanks to the
non-local visitors who brought new spending that was then circulated within the local
economy. To obtain even more accurate estimates in future research, will require
collection of primary data directly related to the events.
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II. INTRODUCTION
The tourism industry is a significant contributor to economic development at
many levels. Tourism attracts visitors who have the ability to foster new economic
activities in the local communities both directly and indirectly. Therefore, many national,
state and local governments see promising opportunities to foster economic growth
through tourism. Many have been opportunistic to steer their policies towards supporting
tourism-driven economies, making use of their comparative advantage (e.g. inheritance
of natural landscape, large grounds suitable for mass gatherings, etc.). However, there are
many communities that have not utilized their tourism potential to the fullest due to
limited resources and the uncertainty surrounding the economic and social impacts
tourism may bring.
Wasco County is a North Central county in the state of Oregon, nestled just south of the
Columbia River and east of The Dalles with a population of just over 25,000. The history,
landscape, and population of Wasco County all contribute to the growing tourism
industry. Wasco County pursues growth and new economic opportunities by hosting
community events that have the potential for attracting visitors from outside the county.
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These events, large and small, range from music festivals, wine-tastings, hunting trips, to
rodeos. Wasco County has two events that extend past their 3,000-person threshold to be
considered an “Outdoor Mass Gathering” (OMG). These two gatherings are What the
Festival (WTF) and Wasco County Fair and Rodeo. While there are many other smaller
events, we focus on these two large events as exemplars. An analysis of these events can
improve understanding of the extent to which the events benefit the county and inform
policy decisions. Aside from the economic impacts of these community events, the
Economic Development Commission of Wasco County is also seeking to better
understand necessary additional business support services for small communities both
impacted by and benefiting from the events. The goal of this study is to measure the
economic impact of such events in Wasco County so that the County can weigh the costs
and benefits in evaluating their provision of event permits.
What the Festival is a privately hosted, four-day summer music and outdoor art
festival that attracts roughly 4,500 attendees. The event has grown in popularity with
each year, drawing in attendees from all over the United States, and even some from
abroad. What the Festival captivates visitors with its anomalous stance as a
spiritual/electronic dance party in a remote area, somewhat akin to the infamous Burning
Man festival. Among many other amenities, the festival boasts a hookah lounge,
movement classes, an illuminated forest, and multiple stages (one of which is even
poolside).
Just 30 miles South of the WTF campgrounds is Maupin, Oregon. Maupin,
Oregon is host to an annual RiverFest. Starting as a one-day event in 2005, RiverFest has
expanded to become a two-day festival on the Deschutes River celebrating wild fish and
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white water. RiverFest is a family friendly, free event that boasts live music, local artists,
educational events and a walk/run and half-marathon. Since its first start, RiverFest has
increased attendance from 500 to nearly 2,000.
Through our study, we are able to conclude that both What the Festival and
RiverFest succeeded in bringing in sizable profits and generating additional revenue for
the local community of Wasco County.
III. LITERATURE REVIEW
Economic impact studies estimate the effect an event has on a certain area. Impact
studies are widespread, frequently used, and serve as useful measures especially for
festivals and other gatherings. As tourism has become a significant economic generator,
analysis of its economic impacts becomes an interest of many policy makers. Many
consultants and economic analysts have been involved in economic impact studies,
including those for community events. There are multiple ways in which impacts by
community events can be measured. These measurements include direct, indirect and
induced impact. We will go more into depths on this topic in our Methodology section.
There are different methodologies such as spending analysis, income analysis, or the
input-output model.
An income analysis is a less popular methodology but is sometimes necessary.
This analysis serves to give another look at a community event’s impact through the
profits it can generate. This is rather important as in some cases, visitor spending can
only tell how much is spent but cannot conclude whether profits by local businesses were
made. If spending and cost equate each other out, then the community event’s impact is
very questionable. Hudson and Carothers conducted an income analysis for this purpose.
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The direct income was calculated from three flows: the revenues and costs of the Oregon
Country Fair host, local crafters, and off-site businesses. Similarly to the spending
analysis, a multiplier was applied to yield the total impact. All flows were concluded to
have made profits.
Regional input-output methodology is also widely used. Regional input-output
multipliers such as the RIMS II multipliers attempt to estimate how much a one-time or
sustained increase in economic activity in a particular region will be supplied by
industries located in the region. Nevertheless, this methodology is better applicable to a
region spanning across counties, which is then not good fit for our study of community
events in a single county. Another popular input-output model is IMPLAN, developed by
the USDA Forest Service to examine economic impact. IMPLAN can measure the total
economic impact, including direct, indirect, and induced effects, within an area economy.
The advantages to IMPLAN over the other options discussed is that it avoids the
guesswork in deriving the indirect and induced effects of visitor spending and it accounts
for revenues, income, and jobs for the self employed and government sectors of the
economy as well. Unfortunately, the primary data on direct spending will need to be
collected, which is a severe limitation of this model for our case.
A spending analysis tries to estimate the visitor spending and its multiplier effect.
Hudson and Carothers (2009) use this methodology to measure the economic impact of
the Oregon Country Fair through its visitor spending. The spending ranged from visitors’
purchases at local food & craft vendors at the event to their spending at local businesses
during the visit (e.g. hotel, camping, restaurant, gasoline, etc.). The study researchers first
estimated the direct spending by all attendees and then accounted for percentages of non-
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locals in order to capture the impact generated only by visitors. Finally, a multiplier was
applied to the earlier estimation to estimate the total impact, which is the sum of direct
impact, indirect impact, and induced impact. We will rely on the spending analysis
approach for our study, due to the smaller amount of data requirements. This facilitates
our adaptation of estimated spending from other papers. We adapt some data on
percentage of locals and non-locals from a paper on visitor characteristics and
expenditures by Hamley and Nickerson (1999). The study looks at the impact of a
festival, Rock ‘n Roll Daze, on the city of Missoula, Montana. Rock ‘n Roll Daze
(R&RD) was a summer culture and music festival to celebrate the music of the 50’s and
60’s. We adapt percentages based on differences in the festival and account for inflation
over time, which we will address later in the paper.
Given our limited resources, the regional multiplier we use is selected based on
expert judgment instead of being calculated directly. In order to find a reasonable
multiplier, we looked at several studies. Hudson and Carothers use multipliers of 2.0, 2.5
and 3.0. We are able to conclude that these numbers would be high overestimates if
applied to WTF due to many differences between the two events. The OCF has strong
ties to Lane County, and unlike WTF, is a non-profit event. Most of the workers are
volunteers and money that is made is mostly circulated back through the county.
Hoogasian, Winnett and Marcouiller (2013) conducted an impact study on a large
outdoor music festival in Kenosha County, Wisconsin. The study uses a total
employment multiplier of 1.29, an employment compensation multiplier of 1.4, and an
economic multiplier for output of 1.45. To be conservative, we use the regional multiplier
of 1.4 adapted from the Wisconsin study.
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IV. METHODOLOGY
There are three types of spending relevant to our analysis: direct spending,
indirect spending, and induced spending.
Direct spending includes all spending at the event sites (e.g. ticket sales, food
vendors, camping site rentals, etc.) or other local spending for the event.
Indirect spending is the extra inputs that businesses make to the local suppliers
in order to meet additional demand from nonresident visitors. This spending
will be estimated together with induced spending (introduced in the next
paragraph) using our multiplier.
Induced spending is the secondary spending people make thanks to their
additional income from the events. This induced spending cannot be measured
directly and hence will be calculated using multipliers.
First of all, there are four types of data we will need in order to calculate the direct
spending of non-local visitors:
1. Length of the event (hours/day and number of days)
2. Number of attendees (people)
3. Percentage of non-local visitors (%)
4. Average spending per visitor ($)
The first two pieces of information are primarily collected and provided to us by
the Wasco County Economic Development Board. Unfortunately, we do not have the
latter two data readily available across all the events we are studying. Therefore, in cases
they are not available through primary collection, we will borrow numbers from other
studies of similar types of events and adapt them into our research. The borrowed data
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will be manipulated in order to maintain adaptability into the particular events we’re
studying. Once all the data is acquired, the direct spending by non-local visitors will be
calculated using the following formula:
Direct Spending= (# attendees) x (% non-locals) x (average spending/visitor)
Direct spending only accounts for the dollars spent by non-local visitors. But these first-
round dollars will continue to stimulate other new economic activities that would not
have occurred should the event not have taken place. Therefore, a regional multiplier will
be used to estimate the economic stimuli that the first-round spending has on the local
economy. This stimulus includes the indirect and the induced spending mentioned above.
V. ANALYSIS
V.1 What the Festival
Number of Attendees
The number of attendees for WTF is given as a range between 4,000 and 5,000.
We take the average of the lower and upper limits of the range to get a single number of
attendees:
Average number of attendees at WTF = 𝟒𝟎𝟎𝟎+𝟓𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟐= 𝟒𝟓𝟎𝟎
Visitor Demographics
We then estimate what percentage of those 4,500 attendees are non-local visitors.
In doing so, we borrow the number of 34% from R&RD. We scale the number to adapt to
WTF by comparing the demographic difference between Missoula county and Wasco
County in terms of how much percentage of state population the local county population
actually accounts for. Since we are mainly interested in the non-local visitors, we subtract
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the above percentage from 1 to find the percentage of state population residing outside
that county. The data is obtained from the US Census and calculated results are presented
in the table below.
Looking at census data for both Montana and Oregon we find that 88.99% of the
population resides outside of Missoula, while that number jumps to 99.35% of
Oregonians living outside of Wasco County. In other words, 11.01% of the population of
Montana resides in Missoula and only < 1% of the Oregon population in Wasco County.
The R&RD study reports that 34% of festival visitors were non-local attendees. We
assume that there is proportionality between the two events in terms of their demographic
composition. Hence,
𝑋%
99.35%=
34.00%
88.99%
Note that “X%” represents the percentage of non-local visitors at WTF
A simple algebraic solution leads to X% = 37.96% or approximately 38%. Thus far, we
know that:
% of out-of-state visitors (provided by Wasco County EDB) is 30%.
% of Oregon visitors from outside Wasco County (above calculation) is 38%.
% of visitors from Wasco County is 100% - 30% - 38% = 32%.
% of non-local visitors at WTF, therefore, is 38% + 32% = 68%.
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Average Spending per Visitor
The average spending provided in the Missoula study is per group, which is
comprised of 2.16 individuals. Therefore, in order to obtain the individual spending of
our interest, we divide the group spending by the average # of individuals per group.
Note that the spending is categorized into two different groups: spending by Montanans
from outside Missoula, and out-of-state visitors. First, we will take the average spending
per visitor for each group.
Avg. spending per visitor (Montanans from outside Missoula) = $277/2.16 = $128.24
Avg. spending per visitor (out-of-state visitors) = $457/2.16 = 211.57
Then, we take a weighted average per-visitor spending, using the percentages of non-
local visitors from within and out-of-state of Wasco County.
Weighted avg. spending per visitor = 𝟑𝟖% 𝒙 $𝟏𝟐𝟖.𝟐𝟒+𝟑𝟎% 𝒙 $𝟐𝟏𝟏.𝟓𝟕
𝟑𝟖% +𝟑𝟎%= $𝟏𝟔𝟓.𝟎𝟎
Direct Impacts
32%
38%
30%
What the Festival Attendance
Visitors from Wasco
County (local)
Oregonians from
outside Wasco County
(non-local)
Out-of-state visitors
(non-local)
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We have calculated all the data needed, so we will proceed further to estimate the
direct impacts that “What the Festival” has on the local community:
Direct impacts = (# of attendees) x (% non-local) x (avg. spending/visitor)
= (4500 attendees) x (68%) x ($165)
= $504,900
Total Impacts
Now, we’ll apply the regional multiplier to attain the total impacts that “What
the Festival” has on Wasco County:
Total impacts = (direct impacts) x (regional multiplier)
= ($504,900) x (1.45)
= $732,105
Adjustment for Inflation
The data borrowed from the Missoula study was collected in 1999, and thus will
have to be accounted for inflation. Since the event of our interest is located in Oregon and
close to the City of Portland, we will calculate the inflation rate by using Portland CPI in
1999 and 2013.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Portland CPI was 172.6 and 235.528 in 1999
and 2013, respectively. Taking 1999 as the base year, we arrive at:
Inflation rate = 𝟐𝟑𝟓.𝟓𝟐𝟖 −𝟏𝟕𝟐.𝟔
𝟏𝟕𝟐.𝟔= 𝟑𝟔.𝟒𝟔%
Without inflation adjustment With inflation adjustment
Direct impacts $504,900 $688,987
Total impacts $732,105 $999,030
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Underestimation of the Proportion of Non-Local Visitors
After looking more deeply at some other characteristic differences between WTF
and R&RD we conclude that the 68% non-local visitors is likely to be an
underestimation, and so is the total impact number. The fundamental difference lies in the
geographic natures of the two areas. Missoula is much more populated compared to
Wasco County (US Census) but is surrounded by forests without having many big cities
nearby. However, Wasco County is much more surrounded by delta and located near
other big cities such as Portland, Bend, Corvallis, etc. Thus, we can anticipate WTF in
Wasco County would attract more people from other nearby big cities than R&RD in
Missoula County. In other words, the percentage of non-local visitors borrowed from
R&RD (34%) is a conservative number when adapted to estimating the percentage of
non-local visitors for What the Festival.
Even though it may seem to be the cause, the types of music that the two festivals
featured actually did not contribute to the underestimation of the percentage of non-local
visitors. While R&RD presented 50’s-60’s music, WTF features electronic music.
Consequently, the former has a pool of older attendees with an average age of 46 whereas
the latter attracts a younger crowd of people in their 20s-30s. However, Missoula has a
younger population with a median age of 30.9 years, while Wasco County is 50.2. In
other words, the population in each county couldn’t meet the demand of each music
festival because each event was not targeted correctly towards the respective age of the
population. To satisfy their attendees’ age natures, R&RD and WTF must have pulled
visitors from outside the counties. To sum up, there is not much of a difference between
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the non-local composition of these two events if only the music types are taken into
account.
V.2 RiverFest
Now, we estimate the economic impacts of RiverFest. Similar to the previous
analysis, we will need four pieces of information for this analysis to be feasible: length of
event, number of attendees, percentage of non-local visitors, and average spending per
non-local visitor. Fortunately, the data for the first three variables was primarily collected
through a survey sent to attendees’ homes. These respondents were asked during a raffle
drawing at the gate to fill out a form with their names and home addresses. This
information was later utilized to send the surveys to respondents’ home. It is reported by
the RiverFest organizer that nearly 80-90% of the attendees filled out the form (which
was free). Despite this, we still do not have the data for average spending available.
Therefore, we will use a similar methodology of adapting the number from another study
to this analysis.
Number of Attendees
The number of attendees at RiverFest was about 500 when it first started and grew
to nearly 2,000. To be more precise, the attendance in 2013 was 1913. Note that around
80-90% of the attendees filled out the raffle form. Therefore, total attendance would
range from 2125 (if 90% of attendees filled out the raffle form) to 2391 (if 80% of
attendees filled out the form).
To simplify the analysis, we will take the average of the lower and upper limits of
this range.
Average number of attendees at RiverFest = (2125 + 2391) / 2 = 2258
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Visitor Demographics
The geographic distribution of the attendance is as follows:
North Central Oregon (The Dalles, Dufur, Wasco County, Maupin, Dallesport, etc.) 43%
Portland/Vancouver, Willamette Valley (Salem, Eugene) 35%
South Central (Bend) & Eastern Oregon 9%
Columbia River Gorge
(Hood River, Lyle, Klickitat, Bingen, White Salmon, Cascade Locks) 9%
Other states 4%
Total 100%
In this case we take North Central Oregon as the local area for the analysis. Thus, the
percentage of local visitors is 43%, whereas the percentage of non-local visitors is 57%,
of which 53% are from within Oregon and 4% are from other states.
Average Spending per Visitor
43%
53%
4%
RiverFest Attendance
Visitors from Wasco County
(local)
Oregonians from outside
Wasco County (non-local)
Out-of-state visitors (non-
local)
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Since we do not have available data for the average spending per visitor for
RiverFest, we will, again, reuse the spending data from the Rock n’ Roll Daze. As we
have calculated above:
Avg. spending per non-local visitor (in-state) = $277/2.16 = $128.24
Avg. spending per non-local visitor (out-of-state) = $45716 = 211.57
Then, we take a weighted average of per-visitor spending, using the percentages
of non-local visitors from within and out of the state of Oregon.
Weighted avg. spending per visitor = (53% x $128.24 + 4% x $211.57)(53% + 4%) = $134.09
Direct Impacts
We have calculated all the data needed, so we will proceed further to estimate the direct
impacts that What the Festival has on the local community:
Direct impacts = (# of attendees) x (% non-local) x (avg. spending/visitor)
= (2258 attendees) x (57%) x ($201.49)
= $259,329
Total Impacts
Now, we’ll apply the regional multiplier to attain the total impacts from RiverFest 2013.
Total impacts = (direct impacts) x (regional multiplier)
= ($259,329) x (1.45)
= $376,028
Adjustment for Inflation
Taking the result from the analysis for What the Festival, we will apply the
inflation rate of 36.46% to account the direct and total impacts of RiverFest 2013 for
inflation. Results are shown in the table below.
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Without inflation adjustment With inflation adjustment
Direct impacts $259,329 $353,880
Total impacts $376,028 $513,128
VI. LIMITATIONS & SUGGESTIONS FOR FUTURE ANALYSIS
Our analysis on What the Festival has been conducted with very limited
primary data on the events. More detailed analysis of What the Festival requires
actual data on the percentage of non-local visitors and the average spending per
visitor. There is also a lack of primary data on average spending per visitor for
RiverFest. Consequently, this limits our results to a certain level of accuracy in
reflecting the true economic impacts of the events under study. Despite data
limitations, we were able to choose a methodology that best fits our purpose. But
should the primary data be collected, the results of future analyses will be even more
accurate. Therefore, we suggest that primary data on the average spending per visitor
and the proportion of non-local visitors be collected for future events if better
precision is a priority.
There are different methodologies to collect primary data. Given the scope
and characteristics of What the Festival and RiverFest, using self-completion
questionnaires would be feasible to attain the information we need: average
spending, origin of visitors, length of stay, how individual’s money was spent, etc.
For example, a survey was conducted for Maupin’s RiverFest. A raffle was
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introduced at the gate to encourage visitors to fill out a short form asking for their
names and home addresses without taking much time. A survey was later sent to
respondents’ homes to inquire about their average spending, their origins, etc.
With the primary data available, a wider range of methodology options can be
more easily applicable and researchers won’t have to limit themselves to one single
methodology. Also, the surveys can be used to collect data for other variables that
researchers are interested in such as respondents’ ages, occupations, perceptions and
awareness of the event, etc. to have a broader and deeper understanding of the
attendees’ behaviors. If all of this data is collected, researchers will be set not only to
estimate more precisely the economic impacts of these events but also to develop
more thorough insights into the pros and cons of such events through survey takers’
responses.
VII. CONCLUSION
What the Festival and RiverFest have certainly benefited organizations who
hosted them but their contribution to the local community was still a question. This
question gave rise to the initiation of our project. Our analysis has helped answer this
by quantifying the economic impacts from these events.
The estimated impacts are $999,030 and $513,128 for “What the Festival 2013”
and “RiverFest 2013,” respectively. Note that we view these estimates as conservative.
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VII. REFERENCES
Ellard, A., Cheek, K.A. & Nickerson, N.P. (1999). Missoula Case Study: Direct Impact
of Visitor Spending on a Local Economy. Research Report 65. Missoula, MT,
Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research, School of Forestry, University of
Montana.
Hamley, M.A. & Nickerson, N. P.(1999) Rock n Roll Daze 1999: Visitor Characteristics
and Expenditure Study. Research Report 67. Institute for Tourism and Recreation
Research, School of Forestry, The University of Montana.
Hoogasian, A., Winnett, T. & Marcouiller, D. (2013) A Country Music Festival and its
Local Community Economic Impacts: The Case Study of Country Thunder 2012
and Kenosha County, Wisconsin. Extension Report 13-1. Department of Urban
and Regional Planning, University of Wisconsin- Madison/ Extension.
Hudson, L. & Carothers, C. (2009) The Oregon Country Fair: An Economic Impact
Analysis. The University of Oregon.
"Wasco County Quick Facts from the US Census Bureau." Wasco County Quick Facts
from the US Census Bureau. Web. 12 Mar. 2014.
<http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/41/41065.html>.